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***Official 2017 NCAA Hoops Tourney thread: Congrats UNC, all the refs from NCCG should be banned for life*** (1 Viewer)

I think we can safely move Wichita State into the when they win "30 games in a year", into the "at large column" at the very least as long as Marshall is the coach

 
Moe. said:
Chris Webber is making it tough for me to watch this USC Marquette game. 
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Vitale should prank him with something like:

"YOU AIN'T NO ANNOUNCER BABEEEEE! TAKE A T.O......ERRRRR......WAIT....YOU DON'T HAVE ONE BABEEEEEEE!

 
Mr. Irrelevant said:
Am I imagining things? Or did I read a graphic earlier that a team hasn't gone over 100 in a tourney game since something like 2001?

UNC just made it two in one day.
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There was a graphic during the Arizona game that said the last time Arizona scored 100 in a tournament game was in 2001. 

 
Capella said:
It's really been that long? Wow, that's great. 
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Yes, I was 2 years old and don't remember that win. Hell, I don't even know if I knew what basketball was back then. This is the first time I've seen my team win a tourney game. Feels damn good. I may have to make the drive up to Greenville on Sunday. Tickets are gonna be through the roof.

 
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This committee really does have to start figuring out teams like Wichita state. It's embarrassing and archaic at this point to be openly flying in the face of analytics like this. And it's unfair to the teams they get drawn against. 

 
Well to be fair Wichita State didn't exactly look that great. Guess this year will be an argument about the merits of Kenpom but beating bad teams by a lot of points doesn't necessarily make you great. 

Hard to draw conclusions from one game but if you want, three of top kenpom teams to already lose came out of weak conferences. 

 
sporthenry said:
Well to be fair Wichita State didn't exactly look that great. Guess this year will be an argument about the merits of Kenpom but beating bad teams by a lot of points doesn't necessarily make you great. 

Hard to draw conclusions from one game but if you want, three of top kenpom teams to already lose came out of weak conferences. 
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I think people who watch a ton of this have already decided on the merits of Kenpom. And a one-off in the tourney isn't the place for that anyways. 

 
sporthenry said:
Um so you agree kenpom has flaws?  I love kenpom but the recent love affair and blind trust to it is a bit much. 
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Sure it has it's flaws but it's the best system we have. Certainly would rather use that to draw up the brackets than 10 fat old white men sitting around a hotel conference room who don't watch much hoops. 

 
Capella said:
This committee really does have to start figuring out teams like Wichita state. It's embarrassing and archaic at this point to be openly flying in the face of analytics like this. And it's unfair to the teams they get drawn against. 
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Until the TSC is open to making the committee itself a meritocracy and openly allow discussion of ratings systems like Sagarin's and Pomeroy's, don't expect much change.  

 
sporthenry said:
Um so you agree kenpom has flaws?  I love kenpom but the recent love affair and blind trust to it is a bit much. 

ETA: http://kenpom.com/blog/on-wisconsin-the-faq/
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"Recent love affair" and "blind trust" are both strawmen.  Especially the "blind trust" one.  Everyone in here who claims the sides are "Pomeroy and Pomeroy ONLY CUZ KENPOM ROOLLLLZZZZZ!" and "other systems of measurement, including my own eyes and the system my college friends came up with that predates KenPom and is much better but not as famous because they couldn't outfox KenPom's internet savvy of building a site that looks like a GeoCities page from 1997 and hasn't fundamentally changed its layout in ten years" are working very hard not to listen to the actual discussion.

Advocates of KenPom aren't trying to use his numbers to end discussions; they are trying to use his numbers to start discussion at a smarter place.

 
Bruce Dickinson said:
"Recent love affair" and "blind trust" are both strawmen.  Especially the "blind trust" one.  Everyone in here who claims the sides are "Pomeroy and Pomeroy ONLY CUZ KENPOM ROOLLLLZZZZZ!" and "other systems of measurement, including my own eyes and the system my college friends came up with that predates KenPom and is much better but not as famous because they couldn't outfox KenPom's internet savvy of building a site that looks like a GeoCities page from 1997 and hasn't fundamentally changed its layout in ten years" are working very hard not to listen to the actual discussion.

Advocates of KenPom aren't trying to use his numbers to end discussions; they are trying to use his numbers to start discussion at a smarter place.
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Capella said:
I think people who watch a ton of this have already decided on the merits of Kenpom. 
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Well I don't see how one persons eye test is any better. Quite frankly, I think a lot of the pundits fell back on kenpom for WSU and honestly how can you not.  They haven't played a tournament team since December. 

But I'll push back on the blind trust. People push this system but don't know how it works. I consider myself an early adopter of kenpom and have a subscription. But people who go #5 team vs #4 team are off base. Sure Wichita State is probably underseeded. But do we really think they are the #5 team in the country?  Not sure which is better a system that puts them at #5 or #40. 

I am happy starting the discussion with that. I've used kenpom extensively in the past to find undervalued teams. I just think the pendulum has swung to the point where people are more trustworthy of an equation. Which I guess is better than the past but still provides its own issues. 

 
I agree that kenpom is not the bible, but here are some interesting "hits" from the first-round.

Xavier ranked higher than MD

Michigan State ranked higher than Miami

Wichita above Dayton (obivously)

Semi-hits

Middle Tennessee very close to Minnesota

Rhode Island very close to Creighton

Misses

SMU losing to USC

Marquette very close to SC

Interesting 2nd-round games will be:

AZ-St. Mary's

UCLA-Cincy

WV-ND

 
Capella said:
Sure it has it's flaws but it's the best system we have. Certainly would rather use that to draw up the brackets than 10 fat old white men sitting around a hotel conference room who don't watch much hoops. 
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Funny.  We used to pick football BCS teams based on computers and everyone whined.  Now there's a bunch of fat old white guys picking the teams and everyone is happy.

 
Survivor Pool types...who you got today?  I'm liking FSU over X.  Trying to save Gonzaga/Villanova for next weekend.  So far I've been lucky enough to avoid the 1/2 seeds in all regions.  

Other matchups to consider:

VA vs FL

Purdue vs IS

Both games look like toss ups to me.  I'd lean VA and Purdue, but I don't see a clear cut winner out of this group.

Already used Butler and W.Va, both seem like other good bets to win today.

 
I like how in basketball teams play 3x the number of games as football and nobody has any idea how to rank the mid majors either.  

 
Peak said:
Survivor Pool types...who you got today?  I'm liking FSU over X.  Trying to save Gonzaga/Villanova for next weekend.  So far I've been lucky enough to avoid the 1/2 seeds in all regions.  

Other matchups to consider:

VA vs FL

Purdue vs IS

Both games look like toss ups to me.  I'd lean VA and Purdue, but I don't see a clear cut winner out of this group.

Already used Butler and W.Va, both seem like other good bets to win today.
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Purdue is like 1 - 4 vs top ranked teams.  I think they lose

 
Peak said:
Survivor Pool types...who you got today?  I'm liking FSU over X.  Trying to save Gonzaga/Villanova for next weekend.  So far I've been lucky enough to avoid the 1/2 seeds in all regions.  

Other matchups to consider:

VA vs FL

Purdue vs IS

Both games look like toss ups to me.  I'd lean VA and Purdue, but I don't see a clear cut winner out of this group.

Already used Butler and W.Va, both seem like other good bets to win today.
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I like Iowa State more than Purdue.  UVA is missing Isaiah Wilkins and the game is in Orlando so Florida will have the crowd.  I wouldn't touch that one.  I would pick FSU myself.

 
Ramblin Wreck said:
I like Iowa State more than Purdue.  UVA is missing Isaiah Wilkins and the game is in Orlando so Florida will have the crowd.  I wouldn't touch that one.  I would pick FSU myself.
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Iowa State is peaking at right time.  I thought Nevada would take them but Iowa State made them look silly.  They are a very dangerous team

 
FADE HARD ALERT!

My picks today (straight up)

Notre Dame

Wisconsin

Gonzaga (nightsweats on this one)

FSU

MTSU

Arizona

UVA

Purdue

 
Long Ball Larry said:
I agree that kenpom is not the bible, but here are some interesting "hits" from the first-round.

Xavier ranked higher than MD

Michigan State ranked higher than Miami

Wichita above Dayton (obivously)

Semi-hits

Middle Tennessee very close to Minnesota

Rhode Island very close to Creighton

Misses

SMU losing to USC

Marquette very close to SC

Interesting 2nd-round games will be:

AZ-St. Mary's

UCLA-Cincy

WV-ND
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Be careful about using current numbers as they adjust for games played. I don't have Pre-tourney numbers but looking at his prediction blog, Miami was 54% favorite to advance which is something like a 2 point favorite which is where the line was. Current numbers are a bit like having the answers to a test. Whoever wins will skyrocket up because they will have beaten top teams. 

But MSU was greatly aided by margin of victory as well which is probably why they jumped so high. 20 point win over a top 40 team will do that. 

 
Peak said:
Survivor Pool types...who you got today?  I'm liking FSU over X.  Trying to save Gonzaga/Villanova for next weekend.  So far I've been lucky enough to avoid the 1/2 seeds in all regions.  

Other matchups to consider:

VA vs FL

Purdue vs IS

Both games look like toss ups to me.  I'd lean VA and Purdue, but I don't see a clear cut winner out of this group.

Already used Butler and W.Va, both seem like other good bets to win today.
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Pretty much agree with your picks. Assuming you want to save no. 1s and 2s for later I'd agree with Butler, W. Virginia and FSU. Would lean Virginia and Purdue as well but those two games scare me. Heck, in a survivor pool and March Madness, they all scare me.

 
ND lucky to be this close. I thought they'd be able to attack the press, at the very least handle it. They've run themselves into traps. 

 
Ramblin Wreck said:
Funny.  We used to pick football BCS teams based on computers and everyone whined.  Now there's a bunch of fat old white guys picking the teams and everyone is happy.
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Not really the same thing at all. The bcs computer metrics were generally laughably bad. And the CFP committee seems to use and appreciate advanced metrics more than the basketball committee. 

 
Capella said:
Not really the same thing at all. The bcs computer metrics were generally laughably bad. And the CFP committee seems to use and appreciate advanced metrics more than the basketball committee. 
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Honestly out of 68 teams how many seeds are bad?  Wichita and Minnesota are the two that come to mind as the two that are more than 1 seed line off.

 
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