Capella
Footballguy
That guy looks like the last thing you see before the '85 Buick trunk door shuts on you
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***Official 2017 NCAA Hoops Tourney thread: Congrats UNC, all the refs from NCCG should be banned for life*** (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Doctor Detroit
- Start date
Prince Myshkin
Footballguy
Aerial Assault
Footballguy
Gonzaga is certainly the first team UNC has faced in a looooong time with sufficient size to deal with them, and I trust* that Mark Few will not get into a Harlem Globetrotters up-and-down transition exhibition, just like Roy Williams loves.
(*or do I?)
(*or do I?)
Prince Myshkin
Footballguy
Taking out the personal stuff, your post does make me think about the 2 different options.
If you foul, the worst case scenario is you are down 5 with the ball and 40 seconds to go. (I suppose that's not the worst case because they could make the first ft and get the offensive rebound on the second one, but if you are going to give up O-rebounds on FT's you are beat in either situation as we saw). Best case, they miss the ft's, you get the rebound down 3 with 40 seconds left.
If you don't foul, the near-best case scenario is getting the stop and rebound so you are down 3 with under 15 seconds to go. I say near-best case because there is the potential for a turnover or offensive foul, but that is unlikely with the ball in the PG's hand dribbling out the clock. Worst case scenario -- they score and you are down 5 with under 15 seconds to go which is basically game over.
So just compare the foul option worst case scenario with the no-foul best case scenario:
Down 5 with the ball and 40 seconds left OR Down 3 with the ball and under 15 seconds left.
I think I go with the foul option even at those extremes. And when you take into account that with a basket OR an offensive rebound on the no-foul option, the game is pretty much over right then and there, I think fouling is the clear best choice.
Now if the situation is changed to down 1 or 2 instead of down 3, I agree completely. Lots more options open up in that situation and I try to get the stop.
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
IC FBGCav
Footballguy
Judge, i dont have a book, but through the dollar and 25 and Rude thing i got 300. Plus i can drop 300 without that. Will you bet for me in a two team i want sc and gonz. Odds?
Bruce Dickinson
Footballguy
I know you think KenPom is rubbish, but his numbers have Gonzaga and UNC very close in Tempo this season.
Also weird how much you've trashed Altman tonight, given how much less talent Oregon has than UNC yet they only lost by one.
Peyton Marino
Footballguy
Peyton Marino
Footballguy
heckmanm
Footballguy
TobiasFunke
Footballguy
Take this for what it's worth from a pessimistic 
. But it is very hard for me to consider UNC the favorite tomorrow after watching the team all year and then watching Berry last night. Jackson is the best player but Berry is the key to the offense for a number of reasons. I saw PPP on/off numbers for him somewhere and it's something like 1.3/0.97 or so. And they're essentially playing without him on offense now.
They have a number of guys who might get hot and compensate- Hicks for example is a decent scorer who was awful last night, I doubt that happens again. But it terms of value I like the Zags, unless Berry magically heals in 48 hours.
. But it is very hard for me to consider UNC the favorite tomorrow after watching the team all year and then watching Berry last night. Jackson is the best player but Berry is the key to the offense for a number of reasons. I saw PPP on/off numbers for him somewhere and it's something like 1.3/0.97 or so. And they're essentially playing without him on offense now. They have a number of guys who might get hot and compensate- Hicks for example is a decent scorer who was awful last night, I doubt that happens again. But it terms of value I like the Zags, unless Berry magically heals in 48 hours.
Uruk-Hai
Footballguy
I think it's extremely close, my friend.Take this for what it's worth from a pessimistic
They have a number of guys who might get hot and compensate- Hicks for example is a decent scorer who was awful last night, I doubt that happens again. But it terms of value I like the Zags, unless Berry magically heals in 48 hours.
As you say, it's doubtful Hicks will go 1-for-13 (or whatever it was) again so his returning to normal will help Carolina. And Gonzaga gets these weird cold spells you usually don't see elite teams have (at least, not as often as the Zags do, IMO).
That said, Gonzaga is a matchup nightmare for anyone. They may not do anything great, but they do everything really well. They can mix-and-match as good as any team I've seen in a long time.
And UNC ain't no scrappy underdog - they've got studs all over the court.
I think this game has the makings of an epic.
otb_lifer
Footballguy
don't follow the hoops at all, but did draw North Carolina and Northwestern outta the hat - 5 large to the winner - decent shot here?
Aerial Assault
Footballguy
Glad to hear that about Ken.
I think my point about Altman is that game was completely there for the taking. IMO all Oregon had to do - instead of getting into a track meet with UNC in the second half, which never, ever works - was work the ball around for some good shots on offense and go inside, instead of putting up and bricking three after three after three, compounded by the fact that most of those threes resulted in no second chances and on several occasions, long rebounds followed by fast break points for the Heels. NC was in foul trouble, too, and has a tendency to commit hacks and shoves down low on drivers. It's like he saw no tape of UNC all season, or, worse, he only saw Duke's first win over them. Duke's second win over them (and the fact that one of the most overrated and generally goofy Duke teams in 25 years, and almost certainly the worst defensive team Duke's fielded in that span, exceeded perhaps only by last year's squad or 2014's, beat these guys twice speaks tomes) was in my view the model to follow. Moreover, just historically, you don't beat Roy Williams teams with the approach Oregon had; it didn't work for Illinois in 2005 and it didn't work for Michigan State (playing a de facto home game) in 2009.
Finally, that's one of the most misleading one-point games I've seen in almost 35 years of watching college basketball closely. By which I mean, I don't think you look at that game and draw any conclusions from the fact that Oregon lost by only point.
Oh, well
Ramblin Wreck
Footballguy
Hicks won't be that bad Monday but Meeks probably won't go for 50 and 30 rebounds again either. Expect a close great final
Aerial Assault
Footballguy
Aerial Assault
Footballguy
This is a good take and I admire your willingness to post! I think I was too scared in either 2010 or 2015 to say much of anything in here.Take this for what it's worth from a pessimistic
They have a number of guys who might get hot and compensate- Hicks for example is a decent scorer who was awful last night, I doubt that happens again. But it terms of value I like the Zags, unless Berry magically heals in 48 hours.
Magical healing is exactly what I expect from Berry, though. And Hicks isn't going to play that poorly again*, although one would think that Meeks isn't going to go off like that again either.
*sorry, I just saw that UH beat me to it and said it better
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Short Corner
Footballguy
Short Corner
Footballguy
Craig_MiamiFL
Footballguy
Great games last night but was tough sitting through 6+ hours of games+traffic. UofP Stadium isn't a good venue for basketball. Understand why they do stadiums from a financial standpoint but it isn't good viewing. Nor does it come across well on TV. We had pretty good seats but still felt so far away from the action. Gonna let a couple friends enjoy the championship game & watch on TV.
Short Corner
Footballguy
You attack the basket. If you get a wide open kick to the guy you want then fine. Two's are almost gifted in this situation with teams over-guarding the arc and you might very well get a foul with a chance to tie it our at least stop the game after second ft and set your defense.
My son has UNC in two pools where he stands to win $900 if they win ( Zags win he wins a whopping $15). I have no way of hedging for him besides joining an offshore book.
I'd really like to guarantee him the $450, any thoughts? I have never played offshore sites and my local "guy" closed up shop a while back.
I'd really like to guarantee him the $450, any thoughts? I have never played offshore sites and my local "guy" closed up shop a while back.
Dickie Dunn
Footballguy
I picked up NC last night in a spread bracket pool after starting with Rhode Island and flipping to Oregon.
My buddy who has Gonzaga texted me and we made a deal. Each taking $400 and playing for the other $400 (otherwise it was $1,000/200).
My buddy who has Gonzaga texted me and we made a deal. Each taking $400 and playing for the other $400 (otherwise it was $1,000/200).
TobiasFunke
Footballguy
Just reading about poor Jordan Bell taking it so hard. Bummer, guy had a great tournament. Hopefully at some point someone will sit him down and explain to him how unlikely it is a team can secure a clean rebound and go the length of the court to score in 6 seconds with no TOs, so he probably didn't cost them anything. Probably should explain it to the crazy sports talk radio guy I just heard too.
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
If two's are gifted, how would you draw a foul?
You dont go for two when down 3 and there are 6 seconds left. If you do, you need to score the two. You need to be able to foul the inbound pass quickly. You need the other team to miss at least one free throw. You need to get the rebound by a big that can quickly turn and dribble or pass to a guard and then you need to get all the way back down the court and score
Or you could go for the three.
Easy choice.
He had an awesome tournament and they don't get to the FF without him. You're right that odds are definitely against going the length of the court in under six seconds. So while he didn't cost them the win, he absolutely botched two consecutive opportunities on B2B plays to give his team an opportunity to win and advance to the national championship game. In reality, he should feel bad. His effort on the first of the two was mind numbingly poor in any situation, let alone with five seconds to go in a FF game. The second was less egregious (a great effort by Meeks), but compounded in that he let it happen a second time.
You feel bad for a kid in that position, because he'll never get over that.
facook
Footballguy
I certainly hope so. Before the tourney I would have said 90% he's gone. Now I'd think he's 50/50 to stay.
As a Ducks homer, it's interesting to read through this thread and feel less bitter than many of the Heel haters sound. Jordan Bell was on of two players (Dorsey) that carried the Ducks to the Final 4. After they lost Boucher many experts and many of us around here wrote them off as having any chance. Bell was huge for 4 games and played pretty well last night until the free throw debacles. I've got nothing but positive feelings for the kid, and this team. They did NOT let us down. They exceeded expectations and gave us a hell of a set of memories of this season.
It is also laughable to blast Altman. Guy is a heck of a coach. You really think he didn't coach those kids to block out on free throws? I've been learning that since youth hoops as a 4th grader. Doesn't mean I always did it. These guys don't always perform as coached either. Block out, slow it down, take your time, drive to the hoop. He could tell them all that stuff in the huddle, kids panic and do dumb things. To think that any of us message board slobs know better than him is foolish.
Congrats to UNC and their fans. Go Ducks!
Bruce Dickinson
Footballguy
Whole lotta suspicious absolutes here. IMO you're greatly overrating the tempo as a factor, given the scoring was low for the number of possessions in the game. Maybe Oregon took a couple more three-pointers than they should have but all season they've been a high-volume, high-make three-point shooting team capable of running down long rebounds.
Bruce Dickinson
Footballguy
I know you've gotten used to Roy teams winning games with pretty passes and excellent execution, but this UNC team can win ugly. Happened against Arkansas, happened last night.Take this for what it's worth from a pessimistic
They have a number of guys who might get hot and compensate- Hicks for example is a decent scorer who was awful last night, I doubt that happens again. But it terms of value I like the Zags, unless Berry magically heals in 48 hours.
Should be a fun matchup tomorrow night: lot of skill on both sides, traditional power versus mid-major that finally kicked the door in after knocking on it for so long, east versus west.
Bruce Dickinson
Footballguy
Try to get the team into the dome today. Bring a tape measure and a ladder.
Show 'em the rim is still ten feet off the ground, and the free throw line is still fifteen feet away.
Then practice cutting down the nets.
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
My very unscientific spidey sense says Gonzaga tomorrow.
For a game of this magnitude, shouldn't we just let the market tell us who is going to win?
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
This is where you say April Fool's.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Gonzaga is the team of destiny this year, they obviously have this locked down. No chance UNC wins tonight, like zero!
Congrats Zags fans!
Man, what kind of moron would've disrespected this team?
Congrats Zags fans!
Man, what kind of moron would've disrespected this team?
dickey moe
Fingerpicker
How do I hate Billy Packer? Let me count the ways...
Ramblin Wreck
Footballguy
UNC was out of bounds four times on that save, right?
Pipes
Footballguy
Ramblin Wreck
Footballguy
Christ that was off UNC too
heckmanm
Footballguy
Half day here.
In fairness, it's 6:20 local, which seem about as early as feasible to get people there after work.
sporthenry
Footballguy
These are the best officials?
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