***Official 2020 Election General*** (1 Viewer)

[quick-hands]

pretend I don't bet and have no idea what this means

explain it like you're talking to grandma

TIA

I dont know.     Brit hume said it.   It made me happy but I have no idea why

 

[MAC_32]

Bold statement by John King. OH goes blue Trump is done. Not so sure.

If he loses OH then wouldn't he have to retain either MI or WI? 

 

[2Squirrels1Nut]

Sorry @CR69  alcohol shaming is the worst kind of shaming.  Frankly, I'm ashamed of myself.

 

[[icon]]

Tennessee  sounds like a great state.  

 

[NutterButter]

Really?  Just seemed FL/GA like in my quick glance

His percentages in charlotte and research triangle counties were like 10% higher than hillary and obama.   

 

[Shula-holic]

OH, only 29 percent is early vote.

NYT is saying all early vote in OH would be reported by 8 EST.  Not sure if that's accurate but that is what was reported.

 

[Shula-holic]

If he loses OH then wouldn't he have to retain either MI or WI? 

I don't see a world Trump loses OH and wins any of WI MI or PA

 

[BobbyLayne]

trustworthy? is that the right word?

I think *in general* the expectation is Biden will do better in the mail in portion, Trump better with votes cast today

not region specific, just get the sense they expect Trump's numbers to improve as votes get tallied tonight

in the coming days, expect Biden's numbers to improve in those states who (unlike NC & OH) couldn't start tallying until this morning

this is going to vary state by state

FL is already called for Trump but it looks like Biden did quite well in same day voting in a lot of counties (e.g, no worse than Clinton 2016)

 

[Kilgore Trout]

trustworthy? is that the right word?

I think *in general* the expectation is Biden will do better in the mail in portion, Trump better with votes cast today

not region specific, just get the sense they expect Trump's numbers to improve as votes get tallied tonight

in the coming days, expect Biden's numbers to improve in those states who (unlike NC & OH) couldn't start tallying until this morning

Moreso that the leads may not be trusted. Agree with all your points.

 

[JAA]

Not a fan of Karl Rove

 

[BobbyLayne]

North Carolina

Candidate Votes Percent

Joe Biden (Democratic) 1,916,633 54.1%

*Donald J. Trump (Republican) 1,590,112 44.9%

Jo Jorgensen (Libertarian) 26,472 0.7%

Howie Hawkins (Green) 7,281 0.2%

Don Blankenship (Constitution) 4,350 0.1%

*Incumbent

Votes counted: 3,544,848. We estimate this is 63.5% of the total vote.

update

Candidate Votes Percent

Joe Biden (Democratic) 2,078,292 52.8%

*Donald J. Trump (Republican) 1,814,519 46.1%

Jo Jorgensen (Libertarian) 30,132 0.8%

Howie Hawkins (Green) 8,009 0.2%

Don Blankenship (Constitution) 4,888 0.1%

*Incumbent

Votes counted: 3,935,840. We estimate this is 70.5% of the total vote.

slightly closer now

 

[cubd8]

Not a fan of Karl Rove

Rove is fantastic on these counties. Keep the politics out and just give the county info Karl. If he does that, fantastic. 

 

[skol asylum]

John King has TWO maps this year. Lucky guy.

 

[tri-man 47]

But, they love Obama Care. The highest enrolling places in the country are Hialeah and other Hispanic areas in Miami Dade. Not voting in their intetest.

And not supporting the Dreamers?  

 

[Thunderlips]

Rove is fantastic on these counties. Keep the politics out and just give the county info Karl. If he does that, fantastic. 

I actually like Rove and think he's pretty informative.  He's been doing that for awhile and aside from his Romney 2012 implosion (which probably was warranted) he's been pretty on point on his "night of" coverage.  

 

[Joe Summer]

Bold statement by John King. OH goes blue Trump is done. Not so sure.

If he loses OH then wouldn't he have to retain either MI or WI? 

If Trump loses OH then he'll have to retain MI or WI in addition to AZ and PA. (And that's assuming that he wins FL/GA/NC/IA/TX/etc.)

Or.....he could lose MI/WI but still squeak by if he gets AZ and PA and somehow flips NV and NH.

 

[BobbyLayne]

Moreso that the leads may not be trusted. Agree with all your points.

right, and I think as they are get returns in they are trying to set expectations

like when we get to Michigan, whatever Biden's lead is in Wayne County, know that it will keep creeping higher all night. the precincts where the poors vote take longer to report. the early returns from more affluent precincts favor Republicans. Biden needs 70% in Wayne County but early on if he's around 60% that should be OK. it will only go higher.

 

[shader]

John King has TWO maps this year. Lucky guy.

I love John King.  On a partisan channel, he does a good job of just giving the stats.  

 

[Rich Conway]

John King has TWO maps this year. Lucky guy.

That's just unfair.  You only get to hand in one bracket in the contest.

 

[snore]

John King has TWO maps this year. Lucky guy.

I love this guy. Just gotta be patient. 

 

[MAC_32]

I don't see a world Trump loses OH and wins any of WI MI or PA

Agreed, if this demo flips that hard on him then those others will too and those margins were obviously much thinner. 

 

[BobbyLayne]

If Trump loses OH then he'll have to retain MI or WI in addition to AZ and PA.

Or.....he could lose MI/WI but still squeak by if he gets AZ and PA and somehow flips NV and NH.

last Republican to win without Ohio?

oh....right. never.

 

[NutterButter]

59% for Biden compared to 55% for Hillary in San Antonio.  That's a good sign for non-cuban hispanic democratic support.   

 

[Ghost Rider]

I love John King.  On a partisan channel, he does a good job of just giving the stats.  

Agreed.  He is one of the few talking heads the cable news channels drags out on Election night that doesn't make me want to put my foot through the TV Jack Butler-style.

 

[shader]

This is coming down to the midwest and Arizona, imo.  

 

[BobbyLayne]

I quit smoking

I bought cigarettes today

Imma go stare at the plywood stores for awhile bbl

 

[ChiefD]

Election night is pretty awesome. 

 

[MAC_32]

I love John King.  On a partisan channel, he does a good job of just giving the stats.  

I've consistently been able to get either him or Kornacki. When I can't get either I refill and grab a snack. 

 

[NutterButter]

I love John King.  On a partisan channel, he does a good job of just giving the stats.  

He loves his maps and I love him for it.   I love how to he compares the data with what went down in 2016 to see how things have changed.  

 

[Yankee23Fan]

Arkansas....shocker

 

[rickroll]

Election night is pretty awesome. 

every few years we get a chance to overthrow the government.

 

[Shula-holic]

Election night is pretty awesome. 

My favorite night every 4 years.  Sometimes you end up happy, other times not.  But for stats and political people, if you like both there is nothing like it.

 

[NutterButter]

I'm surprised that Biden has such a large lead in PA.  I thought that Trump would be leading early big in all swing states where they don't start counting absentee ballots until polls close.

 

[shader]

Election night is pretty awesome. 

I'm a stat nerd, so I love it

My favorite night every 4 years.  Sometimes you end up happy, other times not.  But for stats and political people, if you like both there is nothing like it.

yep

 

[2Squirrels1Nut]

This is coming down to the midwest and Arizona, imo.  

If Biden wins some of the midwest that would be very telling.  Not sure that will happen though.

 

[BobbyLayne]

as expected, Arkansas called for Trump

8:54 pm RECAP

BIDEN - 63

DC (3)
DE (3)
IL (20)
MA (11)
MD (10)
VA (13)
VT (3)

TRUMP - 96

AL -  9
AR - 6
FL - 29
IN - 11
KY - 8
MO - 10
OK - 7
TN - 11
WV - 5

ONLY BATTLEGROUND STATE CALLED SO FAR IS FL

 

[rickroll]

geez it’s 5 til 8pm here.  I ain’t gonna make it.

 

[shader]

I'm surprised that Biden has such a large lead in PA.  I thought that Trump would be leading early big in all swing states where they don't start counting absentee ballots until polls close.

When early results are heavily in Biden's favor, it's usually because a mass of early voting landed.  Then Trump chips away at that lead with ED voting.

As an example, Biden has a 300k lead in Ohio.  I'd bet the house that margin slowly shrinks all night.  Enough for Trump to win? Not sure.  But I'd bet all the early voting is practically in and the ED voting is heavily Trump.

 

[2Squirrels1Nut]

Sorry, didn't mean to make a serious post. 80085

 

[Murph]

I quit smoking

I bought cigarettes today

Imma go stare at the plywood stores for awhile bbl

Not trying to encourage you but man do I miss smoking sometimes.

 

[NutterButter]

Incredible how many counties in Ohio that Biden is out performing Clinton by >5%.  Ohio really hated Clinton.      

 

[GroveDiesel]

The NYT is basically projecting FL, GA and NC all to Trump at this point. According to FiveThirtyEight, that essentially makes the election a tossup

 

[Biff84]

Just a reminder that the Florida results are not the end of the world. If Biden holds all the states for 2016 and wins back Michigan and Wisconsin which are likely he only needs to win one more state of:

Georgia

Arizona

Pennsylvania

Ohio

North Carolina

Not all of them, just one. Florida is disappointing but so far it’s the only place Biden seems to be underperforming Trump. That’s without even considering Texas.

 

[NutterButter]

Incredible how many counties in Ohio that Biden is out performing Clinton by >5%.  Ohio really hated Clinton.      

Biden is not underperforming Clinton in any Ohio county.    8% is a big deficit to overcome.  Come on Joe.

 

[Thunderlips]

Incredible how many counties in Ohio that Biden is out performing Clinton by >5%.  Ohio really hated Clinton.      

What map are you looking at?

 

[WDIK2]

I'm not liking the looks of this at all.

 

[NutterButter]

geez it’s 5 til 8pm here.  I ain’t gonna make it.

Cocaine should be legal on election night.   Every 4 years, anybody that wants an 8 ball can have one.    

 

[NutterButter]

What map are you looking at?

CNN.  Mr Map, John King.   

 

[Doug B]

Florida was already called for Trump? If so, that’s a surprise to me.

 

[Yankee23Fan]

North Carolina is getting interesting.