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***Official 2020 Election General*** (1 Viewer)

If Trump loses OH then he'll have to retain MI or WI in addition to AZ and PA. (And that's assuming that he wins FL/GA/NC/IA/TX/etc.)

Or.....he could lose MI/WI but still squeak by if he gets AZ and PA and somehow flips NV and NH.
Trump is not going to win MI. Ohio is so interesting now. The CNN analysis is interesting with respect to how trump is performing ton himself in 2016 and how Biden is performing in comparison to Clinton. 

CNN stating that Biden is only underperforming in one county in all of Ohio compared to Clinton in 2016

 
I'm surprised that Biden has such a large lead in PA.  I thought that Trump would be leading early big in all swing states where they don't start counting absentee ballots until polls close.
The counties that aren’t counting until tomorrow are all Trump leaning. They may have a good chunk counted in the urban Biden leaning areas counted.

 
The counties that aren’t counting until tomorrow are all Trump leaning. They may have a good chunk counted in the urban Biden leaning areas counted.
Oh no doubt.   Its just that a lot more conservatives vote in person so at least the expectation was that Trump would break out to an early lead until those absentee ballots got counted over the next few days.   I mean they'll start counting in PA area tonight, but that's a crap load of ballots to count.   

 
When early results are heavily in Biden's favor, it's usually because a mass of early voting landed.  Then Trump chips away at that lead with ED voting.

As an example, Biden has a 300k lead in Ohio.  I'd bet the house that margin slowly shrinks all night.  Enough for Trump to win? Not sure.  But I'd bet all the early voting is practically in and the ED voting is heavily Trump.
Down to 260k.  ED voting all Trump.  Whether the lead is enough is the question.

 
NYT just called all 5 Nebraska electoral votes for Trump with 0% reporting.  That has to be an automation mistake, right?

 
As I was waiting in a very long line to vote an elderly, overweight couple, was walking back to their car.  She was struggling and had to hold onto the rail. He went to get the car. They both had Trump shirts on. I talked with her and made sure she was okay.  I held her arm to walk her to the car.  Am I awesome for doing this? Sure, of course. My point is we all need to come together one way or another after this election.

 
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Something funny during our local election update. The local Republican Party is having their election night party at the country club while the Democrats are doing it over zoom. This whole ####### race in a nutshell. 

 
Florida was already called for Trump? If so, that’s a surprise to me.
That's been over for an hour imo
Trump didn’t get 50% in FL four years ago, and only edged out Hillary Clinton by 1.2%. Had no idea Florida was lurching that red. Basically the Oklahoma of the eastern seaboard now, I guess.**

** not a dig — a reference to the safety of their votes for the GOP.

 
I'm so confused. NYT currently showing Trump with 84% chance of winning North Carolina. Every other media outlet saying it's titling heavily to Biden. What gives?

 
It is becoming patently obvious that national polls were off buy at least a couple percentage points, at least the same as 2016. Whether the polls are off enough to swing the election to Trump is still to be determined. It feels like we are getting closer to a 50/50 chance here, and the nightmare scenario of waiting for Pennsylvania.

 
The counties that aren’t counting until tomorrow are all Trump leaning. They may have a good chunk counted in the urban Biden leaning areas counted.
Doubtful. The numbers are probably based on in person voting which would favor Trump. It is going to take them days to get through all the mail-in ballots for the populous areas that lean blue.

 
It is becoming patently obvious that national polls were off buy at least a couple percentage points, at least the same as 2016. Whether the polls are off enough to swing the election to Trump is still to be determined. It feels like we are getting closer to a 50/50 chance here, and the nightmare scenario of waiting for Pennsylvania.
proxy @caustic

 
Here’s what this election comes down to imho not in any particular order.

1) joe is more likable then Hillary 

2). Covid uptick hurt trump

3) trumps messaging on covid beyond poor..

4). Trumps messaging on twitter, interviews etc lost suburbs 

 

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