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***Official 2020 Election General*** (3 Viewers)

2Squirrels1Nut said:
As I was waiting in a very long line to vote an elderly, overweight couple, was walking back to their car.  She was struggling and had to hold onto the rail. He went to get the car. They both had Trump shirts on. I talked with her and made sure she was okay.  I held her arm to walk her to the car.  Am I awesome for doing this? Sure, of course. My point is we all need to come together one way or another after this election.
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Now if she was struggling on the way into the building ...

 
Shula-holic said:
Yeah when I started watching at around 70% reporting the lead was 200K, it's 125K now at 78%.  
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The early voting is so significantly tilted towards Democrats that virtually all votes that come in are heavily slanted to Trump and all the big cities are 80% reported, so it's likely done and dusted.

 
14 9 pm poll closings, several updares

no surprises so far; no state has flipped from pre-election polling

9:19 pm RECAP

BIDEN - 115

CO (9)- CALLED
DC (3)
DE (3)
IL (20)
MA (11)
MD (10)
NJ (14) - CALLED IMMEDIATELY 
NY (29) - CALLED
VA (13)
VT (3)

TRUMP - 120

AL -  9
AR - 6
FL - 29
IN - 11
KY - 8
LA - 8 - CALLED
MO - 10
MS - 6 - CALLED
NE - 4 - CALLED STATE + DISTRICT 1 & 3, DISTRICT 2 (1) STILL IN PLAY
OK - 7
SD - 3 - CALLED
TN - 11
WV - 5
WY - 3 - CALLED

ONLY BATTLEGROUND STATE CALLED SO FAR IS FL

 
Mr Anonymous said:
Is that what's essentially happening everywhere? Biden has huge early lead with urban centers nearly fully in and then Trump slowly chips away all night long?
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Every state is different.  Virginia as an example hasn't reported anything yet in their big city areas.  But yeah, that seems to be the case in OH and NC.  I'd say in about an hour we will all be looking at Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Arizona.  IMO the election rests on those four states.

 
NC moving again now back towards red..... Texas looks like Biden already took his best shot...

Its hard watching all of this at the same time. Im getting old.

 
shader said:
Every state is different.  Virginia as an example hasn't reported anything yet in their big city areas.  But yeah, that seems to be the case in OH and NC.  I'd say in about an hour we will all be looking at Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Arizona.  IMO the election rests on those four states.
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Seems like only the NYT gets this phenomenon with the skewed results.

 
On Betfair, Trump is now trading as the favorite to win the election (going back and forth constantly over the past couple minutes) after opening the day as a 2-1 dog.

 
NORTH CAROLINA

Candidate Votes Percent

Joe Biden (Democratic) 2,339,221 50.8%

*Donald J. Trump (Republican) 2,213,214 48.1%

Jo Jorgensen (Libertarian) 36,537 0.8%

Howie Hawkins (Green) 9,529 0.2%

Don Blankenship (Constitution) 5,922 0.1%

*Incumbent

Votes counted: 4,604,423. We estimate this is 82.4% of the total vote.

TRUMP CONTINUES TO CLOSE, BIDEN LEAD SLIPPING

 
Mr Anonymous said:
Is that what's essentially happening everywhere? Biden has huge early lead with urban centers nearly fully in and then Trump slowly chips away all night long?
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very region specific

many urban areas report same day later than affluent suburbs 

BUT in general, Biden did well in urban areas in the early voting, Trump is doing better on same day

so we're seeing Biden's lead from the tallied mail in vote, Trump chipping away with same day

generally - really depends on each states tallying rules, some couldn't start until this morning

 
stlrams said:
Here’s what this election comes down to imho not in any particular order.

1) joe is more likable then Hillary 

2). Covid uptick hurt trump

3) trumps messaging on covid beyond poor..

4). Trumps messaging on twitter, interviews etc lost suburbs 
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Biden will win for sure.    Good call. 

 
still a clear path for Biden even if he loses all of AZ, TX, FL, GA, NC, OH - Trump HAD to have all of those

if PA + MI + WI + MN all stay blue it's over

which....we might not know until Thursday

 
Still looks very promising for Biden. The fact that he’s so close in Ohio, even if he doesn’t win it, means that he’s likely to win the big 3: Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania. Unfortunately it means we probably won’t know tonight. 

 
This election confirms the echo chambers that exist.  Both sides had many, many people that thought there was going to be a "blue wave" or a "red wave".  That simply doesn't exist.  Pretty amazing that with everything that has happened in the last four years, it's still going to come down to fine margins in just a couple states.  Most people are locked in and don't change. #politics

 
timschochet said:
Still looks very promising for Biden. The fact that he’s so close in Ohio, even if he doesn’t win it, means that he’s likely to win the big 3: Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania. Unfortunately it means we probably won’t know tonight. 
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Certainly bodes well for PA.  Very similar demographics.   

 
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timschochet said:
Still looks very promising for Biden. The fact that he’s so close in Ohio, even if he doesn’t win it, means that he’s likely to win the big 3: Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania. Unfortunately it means we probably won’t know tonight. 
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I'm glad you got your smile back.    In this landslide that won't be close.   Keep giving us your insider takes.

 
timschochet said:
Still looks very promising for Biden. The fact that he’s so close in Ohio, even if he doesn’t win it, means that he’s likely to win the big 3: Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania. Unfortunately it means we probably won’t know tonight. 
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We don't know if it's close in Ohio.  The early voting advantages throw everything off.  Florida a great example of that.  It looked like a close race, but Trump is likely going to do better in Florida this year than last.  

 
Maybe my expectations were too high but I expected really intelligent people to have been prepared for the dynamic that all these early votes would have on the way projections would be made. Again it seems only the New York Times was factoring this in.

I'm now seeing dramatic swings in Ohio that make it seem as though it will look a lot like 2016 for Trump at the end of the night. Seeing Trump with some serious overperforming in Michigan as well.

 
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