What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

***Official 2020 Election General*** (1 Viewer)

Virginia just got pulled back in certain places.  Surely this is missing mail vote.  Fairfax can't be 50/47

 
Last edited by a moderator:
shader said:
I think you just admit that polls aren't an accurate way of knowing what will happen.  
Click to expand...
Or admit that there is a reason it has margins of error.  Wait to see how each place performs against the polling.  Statistics aren’t an exact science.

 
To give an idea of how unbalanced the return releases have been in this particular election, Trump's deficit in Ohio went from 300K to 13K in the span of 20 minutes.

 
  • Sad
Reactions: JAA
The piece I have always said about polls is they don't factor in the seriousness of the vote.

Trump supporters are rabid in their support for him and that is seen at the rallies.

Lots of Biden votes are anti-Trump and not all that excited about their candidate. 

Rabid fans vote. People not feeling it sometimes vote. This was the same when Obama steamrolled the vote. People came to his speeches in droves and although polling had him winning, he also overperformed the polling.

 
shader said:
Widbil83 said:
And here it is, the obligatory Nate Silver waffle tweet. 

https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1323813664164585474?s=21
Click to expand...
He's a smart guy, but he puts WAY too much emphasis on polling.
Click to expand...
A while ago 538 posted an "analysis" of why think there's no such thing as a "shy Trump voter". Basically, their entire conclusion boils down to "phone polls have similar response rates to online polls".

HEY NATE, DO YA THINK MAYBE PEOPLE DON'T LIKE TO ANSWER ONLINE POLLS EITHER?!?

 
Willie Neslon said:
Sportsbook.ag has Trump as a -235 favorite right now. Not good. BIG trouble.
Click to expand...
Definitely not the best sign, but odds shift as money comes in. Could be bettors overreacting from Florida. Or, it could be smart money. Either way, odds go as money comes in. 

 
Mr Anonymous said:
Maybe my expectations were too high but I expected really intelligent people to have been prepared for the dynamic that all these early votes would have on the way projections would be made. Again it seems only the New York Times was factoring this in.

I'm now seeing dramatic swings in Ohio that make it seem as though it will look a lot like 2016 for Trump at the end of the night. Seeing Trump with some serious overperforming in Michigan as well.
Click to expand...
Amen

 
added the SC call - no other updates, and no net change from expectations so far

IOW no surprises so far; no state has flipped from pre-election polling

9:48 pm RECAP

BIDEN - 115

CO (9)
DC (3)
DE (3)
IL (20)
MA (11)
MD (10)
NJ (14) 
NY (29)
VA (13)
VT (3)

TRUMP - 129

AL -  9
AR - 6
FL - 29
IN - 11
KY - 8
LA - 8 
MO - 10
MS - 6 
NE - 4 - DISTRICT 2 (1) STILL IN PLAY
OK - 7
SC - 9 - CALLED
SD - 3
TN - 11
WV - 5
WY - 3

ONLY BATTLEGROUND STATE CALLED SO FAR IS FL

 
Christie on ABC said Trump has pulled ahead and they think they will win Ohio by 1 to 2%.  Obviously good for Trump but that is a big move blue compared to 2016.   Wonder how that impacts PA, WI and MI.

 
Mr Anonymous said:
To give an idea of how unbalanced the return releases have been in this particular election, Trump's deficit in Ohio went from 300K to 13K in the span of 20 minutes.
Click to expand...
PA had less people voting early than other states (estimates of about 1/3), but the difference in one of the pre-election polls was shocking - early vote Biden ~+50, election day Trump ~+20.  Unfortunately, PA couldn't start counting until today, so there returns are going to be a total cluster.

 
Redwes25 said:
Christie on ABC said Trump has pulled ahead and they think they will win Ohio by 1 to 2%.  Obviously good for Trump but that is a big move blue compared to 2016.   Wonder how that impacts PA, WI and MI.
Click to expand...
Alot of Blue Counties in OH are below 60% reporting.  There aren't many red counties below 70%.  

 
  • Love
Reactions: JAA
David Dodds said:
The piece I have always said about polls is they don't factor in the seriousness of the vote.

Trump supporters are rabid in their support for him and that is seen at the rallies.

Lots of Biden votes are anti-Trump and not all that excited about their candidate. 

Rabid fans vote. People not feeling it sometimes vote. This was the same when Obama steamrolled the vote. People came to his speeches in droves and although polling had him winning, he also overperformed the polling.
Click to expand...
:goodposting:

Who would have thought sitting in your basement and calling “lids” for weeks on your campaign while your opponent barnstormed the country was a terrible strategy? A lot of us warned of this in the Biden thread only to be laughed at.

 
Biff84 said:
15 minutes until Arizona will dump their mail in voting. Probably will tell us how much trouble Biden is in.
Click to expand...
maybe

cannot overstress the path to 270 for Biden does NOT include AZ, TX, FL, GA, NC

would be nice & would be a clear sign he's headed for an electoral landslide

on the other hand, Trump HAS to have those 5 - cannot win without them. plus OH. plus either PA, or MI + IA, or MN + WI. 

there's very little margin of error for President Trump

if PA, MI, WI, MN all stay blue, Trump has no path

 
BobbyLayne said:
maybe

cannot overstress the path to 270 for Biden does NOT include AZ, TX, FL, GA, NC

would be nice & would be a clear sign he's headed for an electoral landslide

on the other hand, Trump HAS to have those 5 - cannot win without them. plus OH. plus either PA, or MI + IA, or MN + WI. 

there's very little margin of error for President Trump

if PA, MI, WI, MN all stay blue, Trump has no path
Click to expand...
MN will absolutely stay blue. 

 
mr roboto said:
Is anyone factoring in uncounted mail in?  This is what I don’t understand. 
Click to expand...
Nobody is being clear on what’s behind the numbers right now. CNN is mentioning it but I don’t think they are doing a great job of explaining it. 

 
Thunderlips said:
Alot of Blue Counties in OH are below 60% reporting.  There aren't many red counties below 70%.  
Click to expand...
Agree it is up for grabs.  Just reporting what I heard since thought was interesting.  Columbus is at 60% and Cuyahoga at like 55%.  Lots of Dem votes there.  It is going to be really close.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

dozer
****Official DOJ Investigation into Trump, Fake Electors, Fraud, Etc.****
5 6 7
Replies
348
Views
11K
Sabertooth
Sabertooth
GordonGekko
WSJ: Democrats Suddenly Discover POTUS Joe Biden Is 79 Years Old (7/8/22 17:51 PST)
Replies
48
Views
1K
Prinefan
P
GordonGekko
Newsweek: "Democrats Have Forgotten The Working Class. It Will Cost Them" (7/14/22 14:39 PST)
Replies
19
Views
928
GordonGekko
GordonGekko

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 2 (members: 0, guests: 2)
Top