shader
Footballguy
I think you just admit that polls aren't an accurate way of knowing what will happen.They're just analyzing polls. I think there are lots of deceptive Trump voters answering polls. How do you account for that?
I think you just admit that polls aren't an accurate way of knowing what will happen.They're just analyzing polls. I think there are lots of deceptive Trump voters answering polls. How do you account for that?
Or admit that there is a reason it has margins of error. Wait to see how each place performs against the polling. Statistics aren’t an exact science.I think you just admit that polls aren't an accurate way of knowing what will happen.
Ditto, doing well so far. Come on PA, bring it home.I predict Trump will do well in Michigan and Wisconsin
A while ago 538 posted an "analysis" of why think there's no such thing as a "shy Trump voter". Basically, their entire conclusion boils down to "phone polls have similar response rates to online polls".He's a smart guy, but he puts WAY too much emphasis on polling.And here it is, the obligatory Nate Silver waffle tweet.
https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1323813664164585474?s=21
Definitely not the best sign, but odds shift as money comes in. Could be bettors overreacting from Florida. Or, it could be smart money. Either way, odds go as money comes in.Sportsbook.ag has Trump as a -235 favorite right now. Not good. BIG trouble.
AmenMaybe my expectations were too high but I expected really intelligent people to have been prepared for the dynamic that all these early votes would have on the way projections would be made. Again it seems only the New York Times was factoring this in.
I'm now seeing dramatic swings in Ohio that make it seem as though it will look a lot like 2016 for Trump at the end of the night. Seeing Trump with some serious overperforming in Michigan as well.
Just watching that. They stuck with their call.Fake News Fox walking back their early call of Virginia. What a terrible network!
They didn't put that number up there because late money came in.Definitely not the best sign, but odds shift as money comes in. Could be bettors overreacting from Florida. Or, it could be smart money. Either way, odds go as money comes in.
PA had less people voting early than other states (estimates of about 1/3), but the difference in one of the pre-election polls was shocking - early vote Biden ~+50, election day Trump ~+20. Unfortunately, PA couldn't start counting until today, so there returns are going to be a total cluster.To give an idea of how unbalanced the return releases have been in this particular election, Trump's deficit in Ohio went from 300K to 13K in the span of 20 minutes.
Alot of Blue Counties in OH are below 60% reporting. There aren't many red counties below 70%.Christie on ABC said Trump has pulled ahead and they think they will win Ohio by 1 to 2%. Obviously good for Trump but that is a big move blue compared to 2016. Wonder how that impacts PA, WI and MI.
Bet Biden for an easy middle.Definitely not the best sign, but odds shift as money comes in. Could be bettors overreacting from Florida. Or, it could be smart money. Either way, odds go as money comes in.
After this election, should it play like 2016, I’m done with 538. DoneskiAnd here it is, the obligatory Nate Silver waffle tweet.
https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1323813664164585474?s=21
The piece I have always said about polls is they don't factor in the seriousness of the vote.
Trump supporters are rabid in their support for him and that is seen at the rallies.
Lots of Biden votes are anti-Trump and not all that excited about their candidate.
Rabid fans vote. People not feeling it sometimes vote. This was the same when Obama steamrolled the vote. People came to his speeches in droves and although polling had him winning, he also overperformed the polling.
maybe15 minutes until Arizona will dump their mail in voting. Probably will tell us how much trouble Biden is in.
The question becomes though in those blue counties how many democratics did mail in and have already been counted.Alot of Blue Counties in OH are below 60% reporting. There aren't many red counties below 70%.
MN will absolutely stay blue.maybe
cannot overstress the path to 270 for Biden does NOT include AZ, TX, FL, GA, NC
would be nice & would be a clear sign he's headed for an electoral landslide
on the other hand, Trump HAS to have those 5 - cannot win without them. plus OH. plus either PA, or MI + IA, or MN + WI.
there's very little margin of error for President Trump
if PA, MI, WI, MN all stay blue, Trump has no path
Nobody is being clear on what’s behind the numbers right now. CNN is mentioning it but I don’t think they are doing a great job of explaining it.Is anyone factoring in uncounted mail in? This is what I don’t understand.
Is anyone factoring in uncounted mail in? This is what I don’t understand.
BY DESIGN
unrelated but I'm waiting on a Rx that was mailed 12 days ago
looks like another trip out to the VA (2+ hours RT) to pickup my meds
USPS has been mucked up for the last 3-4 months
Agree it is up for grabs. Just reporting what I heard since thought was interesting. Columbus is at 60% and Cuyahoga at like 55%. Lots of Dem votes there. It is going to be really close.Alot of Blue Counties in OH are below 60% reporting. There aren't many red counties below 70%.
Leftists will burn cities and the media will call it Trump's America.Batten down guys. I now have my gun p permit so I’m protecting my business and house.
so this is what it's like hanging out on a Slovakian message board....Yeah I’d pound Biden if he’s over +200.quickly back to -250
They did the same in Florida in 2000. According to Fahrenheit 2000. Or whatever that idiot Michael Moore called his movieJust watching that. They stuck with their call.