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***Official 2020 Election General*** (2 Viewers)

Drunken Cowboy said:
Encyclopedia Brown said:
The Lt. Governor of Pennsylvania looks like a dude you would avoid in a bar fight. 
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I would not mess with Fetterman. Anybody who wants to move to Braddock is tough. He also has 2 masters degrees including one from Harvard. I hope he uses the press he is getting to springboard to a bigger role. Maybe Senate in 2022
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He's got an amazing story -- might get a movie made about him eventually.

 
timschochet said:
If you listen to Kornacki, it’s just not very plausible. Kornacki says these votes normally favor Democrats, but even if they don’t at the point they’re counted they would have to go 88% in favor of Trump to make any difference. Which will not happen. 
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So he's expecting Biden to build a lead of 76k votes? Is there enough votes left for that?

 
Kornacki talking pa provisionals now. Saying it won't  be as democratic as atypical set of provisionals but not enough to pull it out for Trump. :oldunsure:

 
173k Total AZ left

92k Maricopa left

Katie Hobbs

Includes 47k provisional.ballots that can't be counted until Tuesday. Not all will be counted.

Probably no more votes tonight.

Provisional ballots tend to skew Democrat but this year doesn't follow norms

Won't know military ballots until.end of month.

 
I'm sure it was addressed earlier in this thread but I had I few questions if someone could please explain to me.

Why is the vote counting in Nevada is going so slowly relative to the amount of votes needed to be counted?

Are all the votes in NV and AZ that are being counted mail in ballots?

If the answer to the above question is yes what is reason given that mail in ballots being mainly Dems are boosting Biden in PA and GA but not in AZ?

TIA

 
cap'n grunge said:
173k Total AZ left

92k Maricopa left

Katie Hobbs

Includes 47k provisional.ballots that can't be counted until Tuesday. Not all will be counted.

Probably no more votes tonight.

Provisional ballots tend to skew Democrat but this year doesn't follow norms

Won't know military ballots until.end of month.
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Assuming 20% of the provisional ballots are rejects/duplicates (which is the typical average), and assuming Trump gets 55% of the Maricopa ballots.......I calculate that Trump would need to win 67% of the remaining ballots.

 
menobrown said:
I'm sure it was addressed earlier in this thread but I had I few questions if someone could please explain to me.

Why is the vote counting in Nevada is going so slowly relative to the amount of votes needed to be counted?

Are all the votes in NV and AZ that are being counted mail in ballots?

If the answer to the above question is yes what is reason given that mail in ballots being mainly Dems are boosting Biden in PA and GA but not in AZ?

TIA
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1. All the folks good at counting  in Nevada have jobs at casinos. (j/k, sort of, I have no idea.) 

2. Yes or provisional. 

3. Arizona has had mail in voting for years so the divide between Democrats and Republicans in terms of mail in voting doesn’t exist there. 

 
Doug B said:
Man, I thought Biden had a real chance to turn Maricopa County. Trump only got 48% there in 2016. Figured with the third parties receding into the background, Biden could make a move.
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I should have checked before posting: Biden IS winning Maricopa County 50.6% to 47.9%. Estimated 94% of Maricopa votes counted so far (AP).

 
menobrown said:
I'm sure it was addressed earlier in this thread but I had I few questions if someone could please explain to me.

Why is the vote counting in Nevada is going so slowly relative to the amount of votes needed to be counted?

Are all the votes in NV and AZ that are being counted mail in ballots?

If the answer to the above question is yes what is reason given that mail in ballots being mainly Dems are boosting Biden in PA and GA but not in AZ?

TIA
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1. Nevada took a couple days off because they didn't want to become the focus of Trump's fury. (That's one theory, anyway.)

2a. about 2/3rds of the Nevada ballots are from either mail ballots or same-day ballots (where a first time voter registered to vote). Both are expected to skew towards Biden.

2b. not sure about Arizona, but they have a total of 173k ballots left, of which 92k are from Maricopa county (which might skew slightly towards Trump) and as many as 47k are "provisional" ballots -- could be someone who showed up without proper ID, or someone who had been issued a mail ballot but changed their mind and decided to vote in person. All of those ballots need to be reviewed to make sure they're not duplicates.

3. Arizona already had a high percentage of Republicans who vote by mail. Also, Arizona has a much higher percentage of older people who are concerned about voting in person due to COVID.

 
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Joe Summer said:
2b. not sure about Arizona, but they have a total of 173k ballots left, of which 92k are from Maricopa county (which skews towards Trump) ...
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Don’t know if it’s guaranteed to hold up, but Biden is in the lead in Maricopa right now. Numbers above.

 
Gr00vus said:
I think they have to wait until he's up more votes than there are ballots left (or very close to that).
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That's not at all a standard for calling it.  Maybe they're doing that now because they want to be extra careful with all the (alleged) controversy but they call pretty much every state before it's mathematically impossible for the result to change.  Heck they call states like California and Arkansas with like 10% of the vote in.  Most of the networks called Virginia for Biden when he was trailing Virginia by 17 points amongst the votes already counted.

 
Capella said:
I feel like I’m going mad. Why isn’t anybody calling this? It’s insanity. 
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I think it's because there is no concept of exit polls for the mail in ballots which is pretty much all that is left. The projections are usually largely based on exit polling in previous years. Using logic, yes Biden easily has this and the remaining votes are going to skew heavily D putting his margin way above the .5% threshold. But there is no data to support that so they actually want to wait until the counts are reported and it is mathematically impossible for it to flip.

 
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fred_1_15301 said:
I’m watching the Trump speech again and sadly I think he actually believes every single word he said.  
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He refuses to even consider the possibility that he might be wrong, and he certainly can't imagine why he would lose an election, but reality is going to be an eye opener for him.

 
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