***Official 2020 Election General*** (3 Viewers)

[CletiusMaximus]

If I remember correctly, PA election law says that ballots have to be received by election day.  We should generally follow the law as written.

(I could be confusing PA with some other state.  If their statute is different than this, my bad).

The deadline for ballots to arrive is November 6 for PA.

(I had to look it up)

Statutory deadline to finish counting is November 23.

You’re both right. PA election law requires mail ballots to be received by 8:00 pm on election day.  That’s unambiguous and not in question. The PA legislature made COVID-19 related changes earlier this year but declined to extend the ballot deadline. The PA Supreme Court extended the deadline, citing a “natural disaster,” by three days. The courts ruling specifies that ballots without postmarks or with illegible postmarks should be counted as they are presumptively mailed by Nov 3 if received by the 6th. The SCOTUS declined to stay that order a week or so ago, 4-4 before ACB took the bench. The 4 dissenters indicated they believe the supreme court’s ruling is unconstitutional. It’s the Bush v Gore issue of state court v state legislature on election law matters. Hopefully won’t matter in PA or elsewhere. 

 

[Kal El]

Serious question:

Can anyone imagine President Trump ever issuing a concession speech?

He doesn't strike me as the "graceful in defeat" type.

 

[The Z Machine]

I was thinking about the same thing. Or attending the inauguration?

Did GHWB attend Clinton's inauguration?  What about Carter at Reagan's in `81?

 

[bagger]

Serious question:

Can anyone imagine President Trump ever issuing a concession speech?

No and who cares. Just get him out. Expecting anything other than toxic behavior is setting yourself up to be disappointed.  May need to send an eviction notice..

 

[timschochet]

Serious question:

Can anyone imagine President Trump ever issuing a concession speech?

It would be surprising but I can imagine it yes. One thing about Trump is that he’s unpredictable. 

 

[timschochet]

How many votes are left in Georgia? 

 

[Biff84]

On AZ:

The last drop helped Trump but a little lower than the rate he needs. These first two drops were expected to be the most Trump favorable and two representatives in Biden friendly areas say their area is still outstanding. Still very much in the air but Biden’s likely to win by a small margin.

 

[SlaX]

Did GHWB attend Clinton's inauguration?  What about Carter at Reagan's in `81?

They both attended the inauguration of their successor.

 

[Drunken Cowboy]

I'm not aware of any situation in my lifetime in which a party argued in favor of nullifying legal votes.  It's probably happened somewhere -- there are a lot of races and it's inevitable that someone, somewhere probably tried this, but I don't know of any high profile cases involving something like this.

In the case of something like PA, the argument is that votes rolling in after election day aren't legal votes to begin with.  I probably would have agreed with that argument a few weeks ago.  Now that we're past election day and you're dealing with ballots cast by people who were complying in good faith with what was probably an erroneous court ruling, I'm probably changing my mind and leaning strongly toward counting them.  But regardless, it's question-begging to frame this issue as whether to nullify legal votes, since the legality of those votes is the main issue.  (Presumably you would object if somebody framed this as "Democrats are trying to tally illegally-cast ballots," but that framing is exactly as fair as yours).

I am on a similar page.

I do think in a year with a pandemic, a court ruling to allow a small reasonable accommodation should be allowed to stand. I think the ruling generally is keeping with the intent of the original law,but allowing for unforseen postal problems. However, if it had been overruled well before the election I wouldn't have been particularly bothered.

However even trying to nulify those votes now is evil. I believe this case was looked at by SCOTUS. Those votes were cast according to voters understanding of the law. 

These votes are not likely to decide the election. There will not be many of them. What Trump is going on about is all mail in ballots. PA has requested mail-in ballots. The kind he supposedly thought were fine prior to the election. Any discussion of tossing these votes is just anti-democracy. 

 

[tri-man 47]

How many votes are left in Georgia? 

Less than 100,000, I'd say.  Maybe 80-90,000.  I'm fairly certain Biden will sneak through for the win there.

 

[JAA]

Did GHWB attend Clinton's inauguration?  What about Carter at Reagan's in `81?

They both attended the inauguration of their successor

Trump will definitely want an opportunity to get in front of the cameras and scowl.

 

[Morton Muffley]

I am on a similar page.

I do think in a year with a pandemic, a court ruling to allow a small reasonable accommodation should be allowed to stand. I think the ruling generally is keeping with the intent of the original law,but allowing for unforseen postal problems. However, if it had been overruled well before the election I wouldn't have been particularly bothered.

However even trying to nulify those votes now is evil. I believe this case was looked at by SCOTUS. Those votes were cast according to voters understanding of the law. 

These votes are not likely to decide the election. There will not be many of them. What Trump is going on about is all mail in ballots. PA has requested mail-in ballots. The kind he supposedly thought were fine prior to the election. Any discussion of tossing these votes is just anti-democracy. 

My recollection is the SCOTUS twice looked at and then refused to take up the case.  That said, they can take it up at some future date but seems like they really don't want to get involved and you'd think they'd be loathe to overturn what was agreed to and thus what voters understood to be the requirements.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Less than 100,000, I'd say.  Maybe 80-90,000.  I'm fairly certain Biden will sneak through for the win there.

It will be very very close.  Rough math says 2K margin either direction.

 

[Drunken Cowboy]

Less than 100,000, I'd say.  Maybe 80-90,000.  I'm fairly certain Biden will sneak through for the win there.

I think it is about 70k after the last drop. I think that one went 18k-5k Biden. 

 

[mrip541]

I'm seeing that all GA counties have completely reported but no one has called the race. What's the deal?

https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/105369/web.264614/#/reporting

 

[hagmania]

If this was happening in an election in Eastern Europe or South America and Bush or Obama were President, they would have likely issued a very strong statement rebuking the behavior of the leader and their supporters. 

Haven't we been rebuked by Zimbabwe? I swear I saw that on twitter.

 

[H Jass]

Nate Silver says this in response to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution analysis:  That vote remaining seems too low.  :(

So, AJC is saying 51,000 untallied absentee ballots in Georgia, most "concentrated in highly populated areas, led by Fulton County in Atlanta and Chatham County in Savannah." Biden needs 18,500 to catch up, meaning he'd need to win them 68-32. Very doable.

 

[moleculo]

Did GHWB attend Clinton's inauguration?  What about Carter at Reagan's in `81?

They both attended the inauguration of their successor

Trump will definitely want an opportunity to get in front of the cameras and scowl.

I'd put my money on holding a rally somewhere else.  If I had to guess, it would be in Michigan - rally the troops to find more votes and overturn the election and rip on the governor a little more.

 

[H Jass]

Nate Silver says this in response to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution analysis:  That vote remaining seems too low.  :(

But my math tells me there is a 18,098 deficit, Nate not 18.5K. 

 

[Drunken Cowboy]

But my math tells me there is a 18,098 deficit, Nate not 18.5K. 

Let's hope he wins by at least 402.

 

[moleculo]

I'm seeing that all GA counties have completely reported but no one has called the race. What's the deal?

https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/105369/web.264614/#/reporting

"Unofficial Results – Totals may not include all Absentee or Provisional Ballots"

 

[mrip541]

"Unofficial Results – Totals may not include all Absentee or Provisional Ballots"

I'll just show myself out now.

 

[Anarchy99]

I'm seeing that all GA counties have completely reported but no one has called the race. What's the deal?

https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/105369/web.264614/#/reporting

It says right at the top that results may not include all absentee or provisional ballots. 

 

[moleculo]

I'll just show myself out now.

don't beat yourself up...it shook me too, and took me a little bit to find that blurb.

 

[Anarchy99]

538 posted that the mail in ballots in Philadelphia have been coming in 90% in favor of Biden. 

 

[pantherclub]

538 posted that the mail in ballots in Philadelphia have been coming in 90% in favor of Biden. 

How would they know that?

 

[Anarchy99]

How would they know that?

Based on the ones that have already been tabulated. 

 

[Redwes25]

Did GHWB attend Clinton's inauguration?  What about Carter at Reagan's in `81?

No former President attends the new Presidents inauguration. 

 

[H Jass]

Anyone know if places are counting/releasing tallies right now or this morning?  I'm sitting here at my desk and I'm trying to tell my OCD to quit hitting refresh at different sites if nothing is presently changing.

 

[Anarchy99]

GA SOS said a few minutes ago they have about 50,000 ballots left. This is going to be T-I-G-H-T one way or the other. 

 

[Biff84]

Anyone know if places are counting/releasing tallies right now or this morning?  I'm sitting here at my desk and I'm trying to tell my OCD to quit hitting refresh at different sites if nothing is presently changing.

Nevada will be releasing some this morning and I believe Georgia and Pennsylvania are counting as well. Won’t hear much from Arizona until tonight.

 

[CentralPA]

GA SOS said a few minutes ago they have about 50,000 ballots left. This is going to be T-I-G-H-T one way or the other. 

Trump leads by 18.5k. 

 

[Anarchy99]

Anyone know if places are counting/releasing tallies right now or this morning?  I'm sitting here at my desk and I'm trying to tell my OCD to quit hitting refresh at different sites if nothing is presently changing.

I think we are at the point where states are releasing results bundled together and have been announcing when they will be releasing a batch of new results. I think we are mostly past the point when the state totals show any movement without any notice. 

 

[beef]

No former President attends the new Presidents inauguration. 

Obama attended trump's.  Pretty sure I remember GW at Obama's too.  

 

[Anarchy99]

Trump leads by 18.5k. 

Right. A 70-30 Biden split would get him a net of +20K. That’s pretty close. 

 

[Phil Elliott]

Obama attended trump's.  Pretty sure I remember GW at Obama's too.  

Do they have to be invited to attend (to sit on stage...not down among the common folk).

 

[gianmarco]

Trump leads by 18.5k. 

GA SOS said a few minutes ago they have about 50,000 ballots left. This is going to be T-I-G-H-T one way or the other. 

He'll need 70%ish. But I think they are all Atlanta area, and, I believe that's right where he was trending. Going to be ridiculously close. I think it ends up under 1K difference either way.

 

[beef]

Do they have to be invited to attend?

No idea.  I just figured the former Prez and VP are there out of respect, courtesy and all part of the show.  Like a Military unit change of command.   

 

[Redwes25]

Obama attended trump's.  Pretty sure I remember GW at Obama's too.  

Ok maybe I am wrong. I thought they usually greeted the new President and then left (basically flown out of DC on last ride in air force 1) but maybe I am wrong. 

 

[shader]

How many votes are left in Georgia? 

Just enough 

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Things that should be unsettling to EVERYONE..."35,000 Ballots being sorted by hand" WTF?!

It's not a Left/Right thing but I voted in person a week ahead of time, watched my ballot go right into the machine ATM style and it felt very secure and right, people from both parties on stand by or at the entrances...what is happening in other parts of the country? Every American should be voting on or in a similar fashion. Forget the mail in votes, not even talking about that just yet. 

Finding 100,000 ballots or any large number seems very disturbing to me and even more frightening when they are 80-90% one way or the other, in fact some were at about 100% for just one party, that seems impossible when the country is pretty split. This is n't the slam dunk Liberal Victory parade the media hyped for several months. 

The Media should be taken off the air, they directly suppress voter turnout with their wonky polls showing Biden up double digits in States, they should all be removed. 

It's shameful but at the same time, how Iran or any other country try and shame us, it's only shameful to Americans because our standards are so high, to the rest of the world just pipe down and keep eating your   because we'll announce a winner when we are GD ready and not a moment before. We can milk this for a few more weeks requiring lots of alcohol consumption to ease the pain, no reason to stop that train right now. 

 

[gianmarco]

Philly only 70% reported. It's so heavy for Biden, those votes alone might erase Trump's lead.

 

[H Jass]

He'll need 70%ish. But I think they are all Atlanta area, and, I believe that's right where he was trending. Going to be ridiculously close. I think it ends up under 1K difference either way.

Apparently the Georgia SOS gave that figure on a radio show so who knows if he was just rounding informally in talking.  10:30am he is supposed to give a press conference on the state of the tallies so that'll be much more definitive.

Either way and like you said...tiiiiight.

 

[gianmarco]

Apparently the Georgia SOS gave that figure on a radio show so who knows if he was just rounding informally in talking.  10:30am he is supposed to give a press conference on the state of the tallies so that'll be much more definitive.

Either way and like you said...tiiiiight.

Just watched on CNN where the votes are. Predominantly blue and they are mail in ballots. 70% absolutely possible.

 

[tri-man 47]

He'll probably leave a deuce in all the White House toilets. 

Or do like Illinois' (Democratic) billionaire governor Pritzker several years ago.  He bought a multi-million dollar mansion on Chicago's "gold coast," then removed all the toilets and declared it uninhabitable.  That saved him about $250,000 on property taxes ...until the public got wind of it.

 

[Rich Conway]

Do they have to be invited to attend (to sit on stage...not down among the common folk).

Pending a Biden victory, I'm not even sure the relevant question is "Will Trump attend the inauguration?"  There's certainly a non-zero chance the question is "Will President Pence attend the inauguration?"

 

[moleculo]

Things that should be unsettling to EVERYONE..."35,000 Ballots being sorted by hand" WTF?!

It's not a Left/Right thing but I voted in person a week ahead of time, watched my ballot go right into the machine ATM style and it felt very secure and right, people from both parties on stand by or at the entrances...what is happening in other parts of the country? Every American should be voting on or in a similar fashion. Forget the mail in votes, not even talking about that just yet. (1)

Finding 100,000 ballots or any large number seems very disturbing to me and even more frightening when they are 80-90% one way or the other, in fact some were at about 100% for just one party, that seems impossible when the country is pretty split.  (2) This is n't the slam dunk Liberal Victory parade the media hyped for several months. 

The Media should be taken off the air, they directly suppress voter turnout with their wonky polls showing Biden up double digits in States, they should all be removed. (3)

It's shameful but at the same time, how Iran or any other country try and shame us, it's only shameful to Americans because out standards are so high, to the rest of the world just pipe down and keep eating your   because we'll announce a winner when we are GD ready and not a moment before. We can milk this for a few more weeks requiring lots of alcohol consumption to ease the pain, no reason to stop that train right now. 

(1) yes you are.  the votes being counted now, as far as I know, are  all mail-in ballots.  These all must be opened and inspected by hand.

(2)  when one party was actively telling their constituents that (i) COVID is no big deal, no reason to not vote in person and (ii) mail in ballots are the devil, it makes complete sense that the mail in ballots are heavily weighed towards the other side.

(3) are you advocating the government regulating what can and cannot be said by the media?  that sounds a bit...unAmerican to me.

 

[lakerstan]

Interesting to note, but completely meaningless in the current system, but Joe Biden’s lead in the popular vote is greater than the entire population of the state of Nevada. 
 

It is also larger than the entire country of Uruguay.

 

[beef]

Ok maybe I am wrong. I thought they usually greeted the new President and then left (basically flown out of DC on last ride in air force 1) but maybe I am wrong. 

That happens.  My memory is foggy and might be making this up... 

Meet at Capital steps for the oath.  Official "Change of Command".  Former Prez and FL then go to WH.  New Prez and FL do the parade to the WH.  Former and new meet up at the WH steps and see the formers off on Marine One.   

 

[Phil Elliott]

No idea.  I just figured the former Prez and VP are there out of respect, courtesy and all part of the show.  Like a Military unit change of command.   

Totally agree. The peaceful transfer of power is a big deal. Just thinking of events in the past that a POTUS would usually attend that he was not only not invited but specifically told to stay away.