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*Official* 2021 Survivor Pool Thread (1 Viewer)

Zow

Zow

Footballguy
With FBG running a little slow on Pasquino's article about survivor choices, I decided to start a thread. 

This season opens up with a relatively difficult first week where there are no double-digit favorites. TB is, as i type this, the biggest favorite at -8/5 but honestly I don't like the first game playing against a team with a healthy Dak that i could actually see winning the game. I'd also prefer to wait on choosing one of the top 3 teams by way of power rankings. 

So, I have boiled my choices down to San Fran at Lions and the Panthers hosting the Jets. I'm currently leaning towards the latter as it fits two major criteria I look for: 1) home team; and 2) a mediocre team playing their weakest opponent that's ideally a clear bottom feeder that may not win a game. But, I fully recognize the Panthers are probably the riskier play and my season could be a short one in my survivor leagues. 

What say you? Any particular angles you're playing? Any other teams besides TB, 49ers, and Panthers you're thinking of week one? 

 
Week 1 is the hardest because we don't know how good or bad teams really are yet. So I tend to not overthink it and go with something obvious. If I get clipped, so will a bunch of others. For me that's SF, road game aside. The Lions are going to be putrid and I can't envision them pulling off a win here. 

 
Being clever with picks can get you in trouble.  For the type where you can only pick a team once I tend not to worry about future picks (especially week 1) for the precise reason Pip's mentioned above.......you don't know who is good or bad.

I take the better team and that is SF (even if it's on the road).

 
I don't like getting too creative in week one. It's nice to play the matchups (such as Carolina over NY), but in week one I want a sure thing. For me, the sure things this week are the 49ers and Baltimore.

 
jdoggydogg said:
I don't like getting too creative in week one. It's nice to play the matchups (such as Carolina over NY), but in week one I want a sure thing. For me, the sure things this week are the 49ers and Baltimore.
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Baltimore who lost their starting RB and has a bunch of banged up receivers on the road in Vegas for the Raiders first game in front of the home crowd in the new stadium on MNF?

I agree with taking the surest thing in week 1 because there's so much we don't know about these teams until they play a game or two together.  I also like picking good teams over picking against bad teams when possible.  I don't see Tampa losing their post-SB home opener vs the Cowboys especially now minus Zack Martin.

 
Lehigh98 said:
Baltimore who lost their starting RB and has a bunch of banged up receivers on the road in Vegas for the Raiders first game in front of the home crowd in the new stadium on MNF?

I agree with taking the surest thing in week 1 because there's so much we don't know about these teams until they play a game or two together.  I also like picking good teams over picking against bad teams when possible.  I don't see Tampa losing their post-SB home opener vs the Cowboys especially now minus Zack Martin.
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I do like Baltimore to win, but I agree that Tampa is the safer bet.

 
Baltimore comes out of the gate hot every year. Have to go back to 2015 for a week 1 loss. Last 2 years with lamar they have won with a combined score 97-16 (38-6 last year, 59-10 2 years ago). Baltimore is 1 of my 2 picks I have in a survivor league

Rams is my 2nd. Mcvay is 3-0 on opening week and as a Rams fan I wouldn't be surprised if he shows off his new toy in Stafford. I expect a big game from both offense and defense. Even the Bears are scared of that defense and are not starting there rookie QB.

 
Might roll the dice with Minny or the Pats.  Carolina is tempting, but if Darnold actually plays well, then I'll use them week 3 against the Texans. 

 
jdoggydogg said:
I don't like getting too creative in week one. It's nice to play the matchups (such as Carolina over NY), but in week one I want a sure thing. For me, the sure things this week are the 49ers and Baltimore.
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I would certainly not be surprised if Baltimore loses.

That said, I echo what most here are saying and not trying to get cute in week one. I have two entries this year. I went with SF and LAR.

 
Grigs Allmoon said:
I would certainly not be surprised if Baltimore loses.

That said, I echo what most here are saying and not trying to get cute in week one. I have two entries this year. I went with SF and LAR.
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First game in Vegas with fans on MNF sounds like a great place for an East coast favorite to die. 

 
All in on the "don't be cute" the first week or two in a season, eliminates Carolina. No road team pick mantra leaves SF out. Therefore, with a 7 1/2 point spread and a 73%-75% winning probability......I will take the LA Rams. They don't have a particular easy schedule for the next 5-7 games, so take them now.

 
robb said:
All in on the "don't be cute" the first week or two in a season, eliminates Carolina. No road team pick mantra leaves SF out. Therefore, with a 7 1/2 point spread and a 73%-75% winning probability......I will take the LA Rams. They don't have a particular easy schedule for the next 5-7 games, so take them now.
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Interesting. You do now have me seriously considering a switch off of Carolina. And thank you to the poster above who pointed our that Carolina plays Houston in week 3. 

 
Deamon said:
Might roll the dice with Minny or the Pats.  Carolina is tempting, but if Darnold actually plays well, then I'll use them week 3 against the Texans. 
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Denver does host the Jets in Week 3. That seems very enticing. 

 
Tampa and the 49ers are my picks this week.  I hate taking road teams but it's the Lions.  Toughest 1st week that I can remember in a long time.

 
Lehigh98 said:
I agree with taking the surest thing in week 1 because there's so much we don't know about these teams until they play a game or two together.  I also like picking good teams over picking against bad teams when possible.  I don't see Tampa losing their post-SB home opener vs the Cowboys especially now minus Zack Martin.
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Well, that was more sweat than I expected but onto week #2...

 
Pip's Invitation said:
Week 1 is the hardest because we don't know how good or bad teams really are yet. So I tend to not overthink it and go with something obvious. If I get clipped, so will a bunch of others. For me that's SF, road game aside. The Lions are going to be putrid and I can't envision them pulling off a win here. 
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Lions starting left tackle is out and the right tackle is a 20 year old rookie.  SF -400 is on the money line.

 
Deamon said:
Might roll the dice with Minny or the Pats.  Carolina is tempting, but if Darnold actually plays well, then I'll use them week 3 against the Texans. 
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No reason to roll the dice with MN. They play the Lions twice this season.

Week 1: SF

 
I generally don't pick bad teams playing against other bad teams, because they are inherently unreliable. Especially in week 1 when we don't yet know just how bad the bad teams are. 

 
On to week 2. I think it's a grab the Packers and don't think about it (especially those week one results). Suppose I could see some gravitation towards the Patriots or the Bucs - but I don't like road teams (especially ones led by a rookie QB in his second game) and I'd prefer to save Tampa for a week where this isn't a similar to better obvious choice. 

 
Zow said:
On to week 2. I think it's a grab the Packers and don't think about it (especially those week one results). Suppose I could see some gravitation towards the Patriots or the Bucs - but I don't like road teams (especially ones led by a rookie QB in his second game) and I'd prefer to save Tampa for a week where this isn't a similar to better obvious choice. 
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What about Cleveland? Home vs. Houston. 

 
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I picked SF and my son picked Tampa in week 1. I'm really glad I didn't pick Baltimore, because I was strongly considering them.

 
Zow said:
On to week 2. I think it's a grab the Packers and don't think about it (especially those week one results). Suppose I could see some gravitation towards the Patriots or the Bucs - but I don't like road teams (especially ones led by a rookie QB in his second game) and I'd prefer to save Tampa for a week where this isn't a similar to better obvious choice. 
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You're missing the obvious pick... highest spread of the week.

 
Deamon said:
You're missing the obvious pick... highest spread of the week.
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Oh, yeah, duh. Suppose I followed my own advice of "Packers and don't think about it." Totally agree Cleveland is also a strong play. Will have to look and see if there is a better spot for them later versus better spots for GB. 

 
Zow said:
Oh, yeah, duh. Suppose I followed my own advice of "Packers and don't think about it." Totally agree Cleveland is also a strong play. Will have to look and see if there is a better spot for them later versus better spots for GB. 
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Leroy Hoard said:
Used up SF week 1, going to assume that after this week Cleveland won't be 0-2 and Houston 2-0.
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Browns are the easy win here.  Yes GB should dominate too, but who knows which AR will show up.  Browns do have the Bears and Lions later on both at home so that's nice.  But GB also has those teams.  GB doesn't really have any more gimme's this year though so they could be a good play this week.

 
Week 1: Bucs

Week 2: Browns

Not comfortable with the Pack, also that R-E-L-A-X quote after the 1-2 start in 2014 was after a loss to the Lions.

Also don't like MNF games in survivor, have to wait longer and crazy things seem to happen more often (see last week, and I was there!).

 
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I was going with New England originally, but Cleveland seems like the chalk and I like chalk in these contests. 

 
Car > Cle > Denver

Home field with a hot start giving them confidence against a dumpster fire opposition, don't see a great deal of good spots to use them later on apart from vs Detroit and they're probably back at .500 by then

 
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