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*Official* 2021 Survivor Pool Thread (1 Viewer)

Hmm... I had Denver penciled in but Carolina vs Davis Mills on a short week?  If that was home would be a no-brainer.

 
titusbramble said:
Car > Cle > Denver

Home field with a hot start giving them confidence against a dumpster fire opposition, don't see a great deal of good spots to use them later on apart from vs Detroit and they're probably back at .500 by then
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Yeah this is where I’m leaning. 
 

Could also see Baltimore, Carolina, and Buffalo. 

 
Went LA then GB. This week I'm taking a risk and going Carolina. Denver loss would knock easily 30%+ out and don't want to be on that boat.

 
4th&inches said:
same line of thinking for me here. the other 2 teams I was debating on were: BAL @ DET or ARI @ JAX 
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You are all looking at “away” games and one of my 2 cardinal rules is to NOT select a road team to win. Good luck to you this week!

 
robb said:
You are all looking at “away” games and one of my 2 cardinal rules is to NOT select a road team to win. Good luck to you this week!
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that's generally one of my rules as well, but if we're to only look at Home teams, we'd be limited to the following:

  • BUF v. WAS (BUF has very good future matchups)
  • KC v. LAC (same as above + another of my rules is to not pick divisional games)
  • CLE v. CHI (I still don't trust CLE and who knows how CHI will look with Fields at QB)
  • DEN v. NYJ (30%+ being picked in pools)
  • TEN v. IND (not confident in TEN winning & divisional game)
  • LV v. MIA (not confident in LV winning...even with no Tua)
  • DAL v. PHI (divisional game)
so, between the teams mentioned in the above points vs. the 3 I previously mentioned (CAR, BAL, ARI), I'm much more "comfortable" in the 3 away teams. 

Again, just my  :2cents:

 
I'm not sure why people are looking at Denver being used in a lot of pools as some sort of bad thing? Sometimes it's just the super obvious pick. When else are you going to use Denver any time soon that's going to be a better use, and do you see them as sustaining the start they have?

 
titusbramble said:
I'm not sure why people are looking at Denver being used in a lot of pools as some sort of bad thing? Sometimes it's just the super obvious pick. When else are you going to use Denver any time soon that's going to be a better use, and do you see them as sustaining the start they have?
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The idea is that if you're trying to win your pool, as opposed to just survive for a while, it's a good idea to fade the consensus a little.  You need for the occasional super-obvious pick to get upset from time to time to thin the herd.

 
IvanKaramazov said:
The idea is that if you're trying to win your pool, as opposed to just survive for a while, it's a good idea to fade the consensus a little.  You need for the occasional super-obvious pick to get upset from time to time to thin the herd.
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In that case, pick the Jets?

 
titusbramble said:
In that case, pick the Jets?
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Hypothetically, let's say I was in a 100 person league, and I somehow knew that the other 99 guys all took Denver, and for some reason my only choices are between Denver and the Jets.  It would actually be a great idea to take the Jets in that scenario.  Sure, I'd probably get knocked out, but there's an any-given-Sunday chance that I could win my league instantly if the Jets come through and the Broncos get upset, whereas I only have a 1% chance of winning if I take Denver along with everybody else.  

 
titusbramble said:
I'm not sure why people are looking at Denver being used in a lot of pools as some sort of bad thing? Sometimes it's just the super obvious pick. When else are you going to use Denver any time soon that's going to be a better use, and do you see them as sustaining the start they have?
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The only other time I can see using Denver is Dec 12th when the host the Lions.  That's so far out going Denver and not over thinking it.  

 
Pipes said:
The only other time I can see using Denver is Dec 12th when the host the Lions.  That's so far out going Denver and not over thinking it.  
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Yep, that was my thought as well. If I'm alive that week I probably take the Clippers against the Football Giants even if Denver are available

 
titusbramble said:
I'm not sure why people are looking at Denver being used in a lot of pools as some sort of bad thing? Sometimes it's just the super obvious pick. When else are you going to use Denver any time soon that's going to be a better use, and do you see them as sustaining the start they have?
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I understand the urge to save certain teams for later. But it seems like every single week more than one contestant in these contests pics an awful team and loses. I'd rather be alive 8 weeks from now picking a bad team then pick a bad team in week three.

 
Well I'm now nervous. Nobody could've predicted McCaffrey to get injured. Still think they win with ease with him in but now I feel more comfortable  betting red on roulette. 

 
All those who picked the Panthers are nervous. A one possession game now. Ouch……. 
 

but, it is an away game for Carolina!

 
robb said:
All those who picked the Panthers are nervous. A one possession game now. Ouch……. 
 

but, it is an away game for Carolina!
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They sketched me out going into half. They must have flipped a switch and said " wtf are we doing this is the texans, they fking suck let's go" as they finished pretty strong. 

Either way happy they won, sad McCaffrey is hurt. I don't have him in fantasy anywhere but he makes the game better.

Now just need Denver to lose to the jets😀

Either way gl everyone this wkend

 
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Car > Cle > Den > Cincinnati

Buffalo is clearly the safest and a huge favourite but I'm going with a larger pool and can save them for later, although it'd likely involve taking a divisional matchup which I try to avoid. Bungles remaining home games are against GB, Cle, Pit, LAC, SF, Bal, KC. If the Stealers continue to stink it up then that might be a better use, but Jacksonville on a short week isn't a bad use

 
LAR > CLE > DEN > BUF

Lots of good options this week and I'm kind of inclined to look elsewhere, but the other teams I considered have good future value and I can't turn down a 16.5 point spread at home against a rookie QB.  

 
SF - CLE - DEN -

BUF

Tempted by some others but not going to overthink this. Time to play the bills.

 
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I can certainly understand the Buffalo pick, but not sure I'm going there. If some sort of miracle happened and my favorite team lost such a gimmie AND I got knocked out of my survivor pools in week 4 I'd be miserable. They have plenty of juicy matchups later. I think I'm going to "save" them.

Right now I have Ten, and Cin penciled in and feel pretty comfortable with both.

KC is intriguing as well, for the old bounce-back game, but Philly is in a bounce-back scenario, too.

 
Longtime Bengals homer here :bag:  , and I've decided to go with the Stripes hosting the Jaguars on TNF. 

I question whether Taylor is even a replacement level NFL coach, and his terrible record in road games gives the Bengals precious little future value.   Now is the time to use the Bengals, while Mixon and their defensive free agents are still healthy.  I'm willing to gamble the team's primetime woes left town with Andy Dalton.  

 
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Really wanted to swerve and not pick BUF.  Really wanted to pick CIN to potentially have a win in my pocket for the Sunday games.  But looking around at the game predictor and other predictions, they had CIN winning but only by a few points.  Also I don't like games where anyone calls it a "trap"...

Trap pick

Bengals over Jaguars

The Jaguars stink, but this couldn’t be more clear-cut case of letdown possibility. Cincinnati is coming off a huge road win over Pittsburgh and hosting Green Bay in Week 5. Cincinnati could get the win, but I don’t think it’s worth the risk at this point in your Survivor pool.
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Looked at TEN and they have a nice spread on the Game Predictor but another "trap" warning...

TRAPS TO AVOID

Tennessee Titans (-7) at New York Jets

Everyone is bumhunting the Jets, but it could backfire this week. The Titans may be without star wide receivers A.J. Brown and Julio Jones, leaving them with a corps of Chester Rogers, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, and Josh Reynolds.

More importantly, head coach Mike Vrabel has a history of losing "easy" road games. Last year, his 5-1 Titans lost 31-20 in Cincinnati. Two seasons ago, he lost 20-7 in Jacksonville to a Jaguars team that finished 6-10, and was blanked 16-0 by a 1-4 Broncos squad.

Tennessee is the second-most popular pick this week (31.5%), right behind the Bills. They play the Texans at home in Week 11.
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Game predictor had NO by 5.4 but... Jameis(?).

So going to play it "safe" this week with BUF and that 15 point spread, good luck to all. 

 
Torn between Buffalo and Cinci. I think the latter is the best strategy choice (Buffalo will play the Jets later on for another sure thing) so I'm tentatively rolling Cinci.

 
With the WR news I'm starting to second guess my Tenn pick. I would have to think they can still come out and bludgeon the Jets into an early submission, but I'm certainly not as confident as I was earlier in the week. I may decide to switch to Buffalo, despite the number of juicy future matchups.

 
Grigs Allmoon said:
With the WR news I'm starting to second guess my Tenn pick. I would have to think they can still come out and bludgeon the Jets into an early submission, but I'm certainly not as confident as I was earlier in the week. I may decide to switch to Buffalo, despite the number of juicy future matchups.
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In my free FBG pool I switched from TEN to NO. Taking BUF in my money pool. 

 
Leroy Hoard said:
Call me crazy, but I'm playing a 1-3 road team this week. Houston has gotten worse every week so far. Patriots right their ship for one battle.
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I'm looking at them and possible Tennessee. They just lost to the Jets. Were missing their WR1 and WR2. And Jags are in utter chaos with this Urban Meyer situation. I wouldn't be surprised if they get blown out and Meyer gets fired.

 
Getting tougher. Might just play safe with Tampa, although Raiders is tempting. Think they have to play the Lions later in the season though, so may just go with the obvious this week

 
Leroy Hoard said:
Call me crazy, but I'm playing a 1-3 road team this week. Houston has gotten worse every week so far. Patriots right their ship for one battle.
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me too.

 
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