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Official Alshon Jeffery - The Bandwagon (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter ShaHBucks
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saintfool
Dead sexy
he thinks he's worth more. the bears think he's not. he didn't take the multi-year offer from Vikes at $14 million either. he feels like he's worth $17+ and more years it seems.
Gandalf
Footballguy
Several reports had Bears offering him north of $10M. You don't do that to someone you think is done. He took a rich one year prove it deal and can hit open market at 28. Makes total sense to me.
I think this hurts him a little bit due to a less than ideal landing spot. People trading for him were probably hoping for the best. This is now a crowded offense. Great time to be a Wentz owner, not so great for people expecting targets for Alshon, Ertz, Matthews, or Torrey.
I'd be surprised to see Alshon getting moved for a 1.5 or better.
I think this hurts him a little bit due to a less than ideal landing spot. People trading for him were probably hoping for the best. This is now a crowded offense. Great time to be a Wentz owner, not so great for people expecting targets for Alshon, Ertz, Matthews, or Torrey.
I'd be surprised to see Alshon getting moved for a 1.5 or better.
Alshon is by far the most talented receiver on the team. He got an upgrade at QB and a much more creative offensive minded coach (compared to last year). I like him better than any of the rookie WRs and expect him to be a borderline top 12 WR. If he is healthy, this is a really nice situation to go to.
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Oh, come on. He's a guy who was fairly widely-regarded as a top-25 dynasty talent, and he was voted at #26 overall in the SP poll. He didn't drop down to 50th overall by moving to Philly. If I owned him, I couldn't move him for less than 1.02. Maybe 1.03 if the guy I wanted fell to that spot.
Wow, I wouldn't rate him that high. First, we don't know that Wentz is an upgrade for fantasy purposes. Second, there's no way he gets the targets he got in Chicago. Third, the guy can't stay healthy (recurring hamstring and ankle inuries scare me more than ACL tears at this point). If I do a startup this year, I'm nominating this guy early and letting other people blow their wads on him if people really like him that much.
Only surprassed 140 twice in his career and never 150. Philly was 6th in the league in attempts with a rookie QB. He plays 16 games he'll post as good or higher than he's had in his career.
Obviously you are setting me up for some disagrement reply. Maybe mention Mathews(who is so good the Eagles are both looking all over for a WR and dangling him as trade bait all at the same time) or that they did not involve the WR's much, which is true because they stunk.
CabinFever
Footballguy
The NFC East doesn't exactly have the greatest pass defenses...I'd say this is an upgrade for his owners.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Ertz, Matthews, Torrey Smith and Jeffrey seems pretty crowded to me for a 4000 yard offense.
Which would be like arguably the worst WR corp in the NFL without Alshon. Not exactly an issue.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
need2know
Footballguy
If Torrey Smith is more like the Smith from Bal and not SF, which I think he will be, that wr core ain't bad.
Why? Those other 4 combined for about 1800 yards last season. Why would Alshon neeed to divide anyting up against a group of WR's he is head and shoulders better? Why would Went in his second season from North Dakota St not improve?
It's terrible, don't kid yourself. Torrey Smith might have had the absolute best possible QB he could have had for his style of play in Baltimore and he was merely ok. He's actually the kind of WR I like to have paired with #1 WR, he's not good enough to get a lot of targets but he's good for keeping some attention off Alshon. I'd be disappointed for Alshon if he was not present.
Ertz is really good, he's easily the second best receiving option on the team.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Torrey Smith and Jordan Matthews only demand targets when their teams have horrible WRs and they are the only reasonable option.
Next to a guy like Alshon, they are nothing.
Torrey Smith had 62 targets last year on a team with the worst WRs in the league. Now he's going to take targets from Alshon or Ertz?
Jordan Matthews is not a 900 yard receiver. He's a 500 yard receiver who was forced to get 900 yards because they didn't have a better option. Now they do.
Next to a guy like Alshon, they are nothing.
Torrey Smith had 62 targets last year on a team with the worst WRs in the league. Now he's going to take targets from Alshon or Ertz?
Jordan Matthews is not a 900 yard receiver. He's a 500 yard receiver who was forced to get 900 yards because they didn't have a better option. Now they do.
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Insein
Footballguy
609 pass attempts last year for the Eagles. Matthews, Agholar and DGB were the WRs. Alshon will get plenty of targets.
babydemon90
Footballguy
Nah, I was genuinely curious how you expected the targets to be spread out, but I was asking for a full breakdown for Alshon-Matthews-Torrey-Ertz-RBs-Others. I have a very hard time sorting it out myself. I really feel like maybe I don't want anyone except the RB in 2017. Too many mouths to feed and a sophomore slump from Wentz would kill everyone's value.
I know Cutler isn't a great NFL or fantasy QB, but for fantasy WR purposes he's actually really good. He's not afraid to throw downfield or give his WR a chance to win a jump ball and that worked out really well for Marshall and Alshon. I don't know anything about Wentz's downfield tendencies* (frequency or accuracy) but I think it'll be hard to match what Cutler did. I know people with dissenting opinions in bandwagon threads are always dumped on so it's easy for group think to drown out one or two devil's advocates, but I think you should really give this situation some more thought. A lot of Alshon's value has been due to a healthy YPR. If he loses targets AND his ypr slips, it's very hard to imagine he'll come close to a top 10 WR finish some are predicting in this thread. And I haven't even mentioned the high likelihood of injury yet...
*All I can easily access is YPA and he finished 34th (with 6.23) out of NFL passers in 2016 who attempted at least 100 passes. There were 39 eligible players. The people he surpasses were RG3, Brock, Petty, Gabbert, and Goff. Barring a major change, I really think this was a bottom third landing spot as far as matching skills and opportunity.
3,782 to be exact. Alshon fans are going to need at least a 20% improvement to feed everyone to the point that Alshon gets what they're expecting.
Torrey and like a 34 year old Boldin made for a fair to middling WR duo in Baltimore. People are being hard on Torrey due to recency bias. I'm not claiming Torrey is a target hog, but they're not paying him $5M/yr for 50 targets. In his first four years in the league, he averaged 113 targets for 53/898/7.5 - that's nothing to shake a stick at!
Despite playing in a ton of redraft leagues, I've literally never had Matthews on my team during his 3 years in the league and even I don't think he's a bad WR. You guys are mean in this thread!
Yeah, if Wentz can take a step forward, this will be a crazy offense on the whole even if nobody individually stands out. Very curious to see what RB they draft. I foresee a lot of scoring opps for him. As for Ertz, I'm curious how this will affect him. He had 78 targets in the last 8 games, but there's no way he keeps that up with all these WRs.
themitch
Footballguy
Insein
Footballguy
The reason there was only 3782 yards of receiving is that our WRs had very little YAC. If they did catch the ball, they were usually tackled right away.Nah, I was genuinely curious how you expected the targets to be spread out, but I was asking for a full breakdown for Alshon-Matthews-Torrey-Ertz-RBs-Others. I have a very hard time sorting it out myself. I really feel like maybe I don't want anyone except the RB in 2017. Too many mouths to feed and a sophomore slump from Wentz would kill everyone's value.
I know Cutler isn't a great NFL or fantasy QB, but for fantasy WR purposes he's actually really good. He's not afraid to throw downfield or give his WR a chance to win a jump ball and that worked out really well for Marshall and Alshon. I don't know anything about Wentz's downfield tendencies* (frequency or accuracy) but I think it'll be hard to match what Cutler did. I know people with dissenting opinions in bandwagon threads are always dumped on so it's easy for group think to drown out one or two devil's advocates, but I think you should really give this situation some more thought. A lot of Alshon's value has been due to a healthy YPR. If he loses targets AND his ypr slips, it's very hard to imagine he'll come close to a top 10 WR finish some are predicting in this thread. And I haven't even mentioned the high likelihood of injury yet...
*All I can easily access is YPA and he finished 34th (with 6.23) out of NFL passers in 2016 who attempted at least 100 passes. There were 39 eligible players. The people he surpasses were RG3, Brock, Petty, Gabbert, and Goff. Barring a major change, I really think this was a bottom third landing spot as far as matching skills and opportunity.
3,782 to be exact. Alshon fans are going to need at least a 20% improvement to feed everyone to the point that Alshon gets what they're expecting.
Torrey and like a 34 year old Boldin made for a fair to middling WR duo in Baltimore. People are being hard on Torrey due to recency bias. I'm not claiming Torrey is a target hog, but they're not paying him $5M/yr for 50 targets. In his first four years in the league, he averaged 113 targets for 53/898/7.5 - that's nothing to shake a stick at!
Despite playing in a ton of redraft leagues, I've literally never had Matthews on my team during his 3 years in the league and even I don't think he's a bad WR. You guys are mean in this thread!
Yeah, if Wentz can take a step forward, this will be a crazy offense on the whole even if nobody individually stands out. Very curious to see what RB they draft. I foresee a lot of scoring opps for him. As for Ertz, I'm curious how this will affect him. He had 78 targets in the last 8 games, but there's no way he keeps that up with all these WRs.
Hopefully Alshon can improve upon that.
Bigboy10182000
Footballguy
Not expecting growth from Wentz going forward is going to be a colosal mistake.
Last years numbers were with a bottom 3 group of skills at RB & WR.
He was a rookie. A rookie who was expected to be the 3rd QB, after missing a chunk of the pre-season with an injury and not being named the starter until a week before the season started.
Him, and the offense are going to take a massive jump IMO
Last years numbers were with a bottom 3 group of skills at RB & WR.
He was a rookie. A rookie who was expected to be the 3rd QB, after missing a chunk of the pre-season with an injury and not being named the starter until a week before the season started.
Him, and the offense are going to take a massive jump IMO
Fair enough, but just curious if you got that from data or if this is just a gut feeling from watching the games? If anyone has access to PFF or some other site that tracks aDoT, I'd be very interested to see where Wentz ranked on that.Insein said:
Is Alshon actually known for his YAC ability? I thought he was better at contested catches rather than moves after the catch.
FWIW, Wentz actually went backwards as the season progressed. 6.9 YPA through the first 8 games and 5.7 YPA through the last 8. I'd feel more comfortable if those numbers were reversed.
And for people blindly expecting a "massive" jump in year 2, keep in mind that it doesn't always work that way. Here are all the semi-recent rookie starters with year 1 and year 2 YPA:
Ryan Tannehill - 6.81 - 6.65
Matt Ryan - 7.93 - 6.47
Joe Flacco - 6.94 - 7.24
Jameis Winston - 7.56 - 7.21
Blake Bortles - 6.12 - 7.31
Derek Carr - 5.46 - 6.96
Andrew Luck - 6.98 - 6.71
Russell Wilson - 7.93 - 8.25
Cam Newton - 7.84 - 7.98
Andy Dalton - 6.59 - 6.94
Mariota - 7.60 - 7.60
Wentz - 6.23 - ???
So one might say it would be a colossal mistake to assume improvement, much less a massive jump. The only guys with a massive jump were Bortles and Carr who went from terrible to mediocre YPA. I agree Wentz's weapons have improved a lot so I think it is very possible, but I'm not going to blindly ignore the possibility sophomore slump.
Bigboy10182000
Footballguy
Lets go apples to apples--How many, in that group, went through the below in year one?
With that said, your list now shrinks to 0. Id use your data for your local leagues and hope it suppresses his value going forward. You're going to be looking at a QB1 in 2017
It's not blind at all. I'm looking at tomorrow and not yesterday. His entire situation from year 1 heading into year 2 will be different.
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Sounds like some very savvy, thorough, thought provoking analysis. Please use that to boost value in local leagues.Bottom 3 group of both WR and RB, eh? I'm sure you've got some data to back this up rather than a bunch of bluster.
Just to start with, on the RBs, they were 14th in ypc. And that was with 13th rated OL run blocking. The RBs may not have been top 3, but they definitely weren't bottom 3, either. Just off the top of my head, I'd say the Giants, Colts, and Redskins RBs were much worse.
Bigboy10182000
Footballguy
Combined skill positions. -- RB's and WR's as a unit. Bottom 3. Cleveland, SF and Philly. For arguments sake bottom 5. Without even seeing the next starting RB that unit as a whole will be much better.
Bottom 3 group of both WR and RB, eh? I'm sure you've got some data to back this up rather than a bunch of bluster.
Just to start with, on the RBs, they were 14th in ypc. And that was with 13th rated OL run blocking. The RBs may not have been top 3, but they definitely weren't bottom 3, either. Just off the top of my head, I'd say the Giants, Colts, and Redskins RBs were much worse.
You can argue yesterday all you want. If you want to go into detail about why having an entire off-season as the starter, a gigantic upgrade in weapons, what should be an easier schedule and another year in a scheme makes for a marginal upgrade or sophomore slump as you mentioned earlier, have at it. Just don't use apples to bowling balls comparisons.
Your post reeks of homer optimism and your points are weak. If you want to combine RBs and WRs, why not include TE so we can make it about the entire offense? Oh, because that doesn't fit your cherry picking argument. Look, I think Wentz has a good chance to break out this year. I'm just saying that, historically speaking, it isn't a foregone conclusion that QBs improve a lot in year 2 when it comes to YPA which will be critical for Alshon's success. When it comes to fantasy and Philly I would like to own Wentz (as my QB2) and the starting RB to be named later, but I feel like the competition for targets will be too great for anyone to have a lot of success fantasy-wise and I also question Wentz's tendencies (or lack thereof) to push the ball downfield to properly take advantage of Alshon and Torrey. Again, I haven't seen the data and I don't know the scouting report on him. All I've researched so far is his YPA... but my early prediction is that Alshon will not live up to his redraft ADP in 2017. You can bump this in 9 months if I'm wrong.
Bigboy10182000
Footballguy
Yes...you can combine TE too. Still bottom 3....bottom 5 for arguments sake. To clarify...last years Eagles skill positon players (RB, WR & TE) are a bottom 3-5 group. They stunk.
Ive seen you post in numerous threads and there's one common theme with you--Yesterday. How many times do you or have your started one of your posts with "Last year"? I see it a lot with you and its a bad habit.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Why not?FF Ninja said:
The 49ers gave him $8M/yr, $40M total, and he got 62 targets last year despite them barely having another WR worthy of being on an NFL football field.
$5M/yr for 50 targets isn't that out of whack with current WR prices. The Dolphins just gave Kenny Stills a contract double Smith's overall and at $8M/yr to be a WR3 field stretcher that had 80 targets last year. The guys expected to get 100+ targets are getting $10M+ per year. $1M per 10 targets seems pretty much right in line with what guys have been signing for.
It's also worth noting that they paid that $5M before they knew they were going to be able to land Alshon. That makes a big difference in regards to how much they paid.
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Yes, it's a terrible habit to use historical data to predict the future. I supposed I should be like you? The only tool you use is a pair of rose tinted glasses. That's much more statistically sound. 
First of all, he was injured last year and missed 3 games so that impacts his targets. Second, he was a bad signing by the 49ers. I'm not arguing that. I avoided him like the plague in 2015. Third, the coaching staff in 2016 did not sign him to that contract. Fourth, the coaching staff that did sign him gave him 92 targets in 2015. Fifth, they had no one who could utilize his skill set either year. What good is a deep threat when you can't/won't throw deep? I'm maybe giving Philly too much credit, but I'm going to assume they don't plan to totally waste their money like SF did.
Bigboy10182000
Footballguy
And back to block you go.
bostonfred
Footballguy
Alshon has been a productive receiver but he's not so physically dominant that he can't miss. He's been a target monster the last 4 years for a team that was a combined 22-42 during that time. There was nobody else on any of those teams to catch the ball and nobody else to design plays for. He had two and a half seasons of really strong production so the upside is definitely there, but that's what you should be thinking of it as - upside.
His situation is worse. I think almost everyone would agree that went is a "better" quarterback than Cutler, but he might not be there yet. He started his rookie season red hot, and didn't throw an interception for a record setting number of throws to start his career. You know how you do that? You don't force feed the ball to one guy. Then he cooled off later in the year. Wentz should improve from year one to year two, but it may not be the kind of improvement that helps Jeffrey. With all the targets they brought in, I doubt the coaches are going to say "make sure you get Jeffrey the 145 targets he's accustomed to." It's more likely they'll want wentz to learn to look at his secondary targets - Torrey Smith is no great shakes but he could be good for 700-800 yards, Matthews has been pretty steady as a 900 yard guy, Ertz is steadily becoming a 800 yard guy, and they have a bundle of receiving backs who should account for 500+. That's 3000 yards before you account for any of the production from random scrubs - and wentz only threw for 3800 last year. Maybe Smith gets more like 200 instead of 700, or wentz throws for 4500 instead of 3800 in year two with better targets, but it's not a lock that alshon puts up big numbers.
Then there's his contract. He's on a one year deal that he signed on the first year of free agency. A top talent hitting the market like that shouldn't have had to settle for a price it deal, but he's missed a lot of games and he disappointed last year. They gave him big money - 14 million - but they can walk away after this year if he fails to produce. So if you're hanging your dynasty hopes on having him grow with wentz, you may be disappointed.
Then there is just the fact that good wide receivers changing teams sometimes suck for no apparent reason. It's rare that a really good young receiver changes teams, but the list of free agent receivers who just dominated on their new team is pretty short.
Sometimes good receivers fall off a cliff. I know it seems crazy to try to predict the next hakeem nicks but the list of receivers who were highly productive for 10 years is insanely short. At some point guys drop off, and on hindsight we usually say things like oh it's because he had those injuries or he was good until he changed teams or he fell off once he got paid or they added this other receiver or the new qb likes top spread the ball around too much. All of which apply to alshon.
That doesn't mean he can't or won't succeed. He is a talented player with proven production and he might just step in and put up 85/1400/8. This could be exactly what he needed to get him out of that funk. By pedigree he's the best receiver by far on the eagles and he is their shiny new toy and he has upside through the roof.
Just understand that that's what you're buying - a guy with big upside. People are drafting him and trading for him at a price like he's in the proven producer with a couple red flags tier when he's probably at the top of the next tier.
His situation is worse. I think almost everyone would agree that went is a "better" quarterback than Cutler, but he might not be there yet. He started his rookie season red hot, and didn't throw an interception for a record setting number of throws to start his career. You know how you do that? You don't force feed the ball to one guy. Then he cooled off later in the year. Wentz should improve from year one to year two, but it may not be the kind of improvement that helps Jeffrey. With all the targets they brought in, I doubt the coaches are going to say "make sure you get Jeffrey the 145 targets he's accustomed to." It's more likely they'll want wentz to learn to look at his secondary targets - Torrey Smith is no great shakes but he could be good for 700-800 yards, Matthews has been pretty steady as a 900 yard guy, Ertz is steadily becoming a 800 yard guy, and they have a bundle of receiving backs who should account for 500+. That's 3000 yards before you account for any of the production from random scrubs - and wentz only threw for 3800 last year. Maybe Smith gets more like 200 instead of 700, or wentz throws for 4500 instead of 3800 in year two with better targets, but it's not a lock that alshon puts up big numbers.
Then there's his contract. He's on a one year deal that he signed on the first year of free agency. A top talent hitting the market like that shouldn't have had to settle for a price it deal, but he's missed a lot of games and he disappointed last year. They gave him big money - 14 million - but they can walk away after this year if he fails to produce. So if you're hanging your dynasty hopes on having him grow with wentz, you may be disappointed.
Then there is just the fact that good wide receivers changing teams sometimes suck for no apparent reason. It's rare that a really good young receiver changes teams, but the list of free agent receivers who just dominated on their new team is pretty short.
Sometimes good receivers fall off a cliff. I know it seems crazy to try to predict the next hakeem nicks but the list of receivers who were highly productive for 10 years is insanely short. At some point guys drop off, and on hindsight we usually say things like oh it's because he had those injuries or he was good until he changed teams or he fell off once he got paid or they added this other receiver or the new qb likes top spread the ball around too much. All of which apply to alshon.
That doesn't mean he can't or won't succeed. He is a talented player with proven production and he might just step in and put up 85/1400/8. This could be exactly what he needed to get him out of that funk. By pedigree he's the best receiver by far on the eagles and he is their shiny new toy and he has upside through the roof.
Just understand that that's what you're buying - a guy with big upside. People are drafting him and trading for him at a price like he's in the proven producer with a couple red flags tier when he's probably at the top of the next tier.
Exactly. I'm fine with no reports of "wow" moments from camp as long as there are no reports of soft tissue injurues as well. Fair trade
