What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

Official Alshon Jeffery - The Bandwagon (1 Viewer)

CentralPA said:
Not to highjack the Alshon thread with a Carson Wentz article but with these post I think reading this IgglesBlitz blog post concerning Wentz may help shine a little more light on him.  I'm optimistic the Eagles have a franchise QB and a very good one.  He just needs to work out technique.

As for Alshon, simply put, he can have a WR 1 year if he can stay healthy.  But that is a coin flip at best.  Not sure why he always gets soft tissue injuries but he does.  Seems like he does a pretty good job of maintaining his body in the off season but his hamstrings just seem to nag him consistently.  It's a gamble but I have him in a 3 keeper dynasty and I am hoping for the best.
Click to expand...
He only missed games in one of his 5 seasons due to soft tissue injuries.  Many are concerned with him because he was questionable last year.  Julio was also questionable a lot.  AJG also has missed games due to injury.  Not sure why Jeffery gets treated worse than guys like Dez.

 
Hawkeye21 said:
He only missed games in one of his 5 seasons due to soft tissue injuries.  Many are concerned with him because he was questionable last year.  Julio was also questionable a lot.  AJG also has missed games due to injury.  Not sure why Jeffery gets treated worse than guys like Dez.
Click to expand...
Very valid point.  It's only OTAs but he had rave reviews, not to mention no health issues.  I sorta think he could be a bargain if he slips to RD 4/5 which I think his ADP is currently right around there.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Hawkeye21 said:
He only missed games in one of his 5 seasons due to soft tissue injuries.  Many are concerned with him because he was questionable last year.  Julio was also questionable a lot.  AJG also has missed games due to injury.  Not sure why Jeffery gets treated worse than guys like Dez.
Click to expand...
Difference between Dez and Alshon is that that Dez has had 3 seasons where he has averaged more points than Alshon's best season. Dez has shown he can be a top 3 fantasy WR. 

 
Ilov80s said:
Difference between Dez and Alshon is that that Dez has had 3 seasons where he has averaged more points than Alshon's best season. Dez has shown he can be a top 3 fantasy WR. 
Click to expand...
The biggest issue with Jeffery that I can recall is the lack of TDs.  A lot of that had to do with being on the Bears though.  Dez was getting double digit TDs in his best seasons.  I'm not saying that Dez isn't good but his injury history is just as bad as Jeffery's but I don't see too many pick on him for it.

 
Hawkeye21 said:
He only missed games in one of his 5 seasons due to soft tissue injuries.  Many are concerned with him because he was questionable last year.  Julio was also questionable a lot.  AJG also has missed games due to injury.  Not sure why Jeffery gets treated worse than guys like Dez.
Click to expand...
For me, it's no single red flag. It's a combination of a bunch of little ones:

  • Missed time or not, the soft tissue injuries are frequent and those are the injuries that sap athleticism prematurely
  • His best seasons were as his team's WR2 (yes, he was the WR1 in 2015 but that was not a sustainable target load)
  • His next suspension is for a year
  • For a jump ball guy, his TDs are pretty low and Wentz isn't exactly a TD machine
  • Philly likely to throw less this year
  • Too many other targets on this team - I know everyone hates him here, but Matthews is actually a good WR, Torrey is still in his prime and is another good not great WR, and the Ertz/Wentz connection went nuts during the second half of the season (Ertz got injured and missed time in the 1st half) to the tune of 78 targets for 55 rec in 8 games
 
CentralPA said:
Very valid point.  It's only OTAs but he had rave reviews, not to mention no health issues.  I sorta think he could be a bargain if he slips to RD 4/5 which I think his ADP is currently right around there.
Click to expand...
He won't

 
Alshon Jeffery is working with Carson Wentz in North Dakota.

Jeffery asked for bison burger recommendations in Fargo on Twitter over the weekend, and Jeff Kerr of 247Sports reports he is being joined in North Dakota by Jordan Matthews, Torrey Smith, Zach Ertz, Nelson Agholor, Trey Burton, Bryce Treggs, and Shelton Gibson. These meetups happen for most teams, but it could prove important for the Eagles with two new primary options in the passing game. Jeffery is easily the most important of those additions, and he should return WR2 value as long as he stays healthy.

Source: Jeff Kerr on Twitter 

Jul 10 - 8:53 AM
Click to expand...
 
He's seems pretty dumb.  I saw him on an interview or two last year and based on that alone, I won't be drafting him

 
xenon said:
He's seems pretty dumb.  I saw him on an interview or two last year and based on that alone, I won't be drafting him
Click to expand...
We aren't drafting him to cure cancer. His job involves running,jumping and catching. It's like a more complicated human game of fetch. 

 
Lots of hate for Jeffery right now, confuses me. He is a #1 WR, who isnt a stud but is on the next tier. I'll pay accordingly. Injuries happen and he is susceptible more than most it appears. You are not paying OBJ price for him or even Hopkins price for him, but if healthy on a 1 yr deal? He might give you the same return to play through some injuries he may normally miss on and should see a heavy dose of activity.  

 
FF Ninja said:
For me, it's no single red flag. It's a combination of a bunch of little ones:

  • Missed time or not, the soft tissue injuries are frequent and those are the injuries that sap athleticism prematurely. Agree.
  • His best seasons were as his team's WR2 (yes, he was the WR1 in 2015 but that was not a sustainable target load) Splitting hairs.
  • His next suspension is for a year But he isnt suspended now, this is always an argument people add on when they have a direction they want to go. 
  • For a jump ball guy, his TDs are pretty low and Wentz isn't exactly a TD machine. Jump ball guy? So not true. 
  • Philly likely to throw less this year Thats just like, your opinion, man.
  • Too many other targets on this team - I know everyone hates him here, but Matthews is actually a good WR, When he doesnt drop the ball Torrey is still in his prime and is another good not great WR his prime? this is his 7th year and he has never had over 65 catches only over 50 once and had one 1k season and only over 900 yards once with one double digit TD season. he is not good, he is just average at best, and the Ertz/Wentz connection went nuts during the second half of the season (Ertz got injured and missed time in the 1st half) to the tune of 78 targets for 55 rec in 8 games Week 17 distorted the stats, and week 17 dont count in fantasy, they did do well in the 2nd half though, dont disagree but you are still insinuating these guys are some super stars who will be the #1 target over Jeffery, and thats just my opinion that youa re wrong wrong. 
Click to expand...
Bolded my responses.

 
I try not to let injury history effect my decisions because it does usually seem random but with some players it instead seems inevitable.

I look at Jeffery and my question is, how the #### does this dude always injure himself in practice?

Sep 17, 2015 NFL Thigh Hamstring Sprain/Pull Unspecified Grade 1 Alshon re-aggrivated his leg injury during practice and was ruled out for the following 4 games.

Nov 11, 2015 NFL Inguinal Groin Pull Grade 1 Jeffery suffered another injury during practice. He suffered a minor groin pull but didn't miss any games from the injury.

Nov 24, 2015 NFL Shoulder Alshon Jeffery suffered a shoulder injury during practice but didn't miss any games because of it.

Aug 5, 2016 NFL Thigh Hamstring Sprain/Pull Unspecified Grade 1 Jeffery is nursing a sore hamstring suffered during preseason practice.

Sep 21, 2016 NFL Knee Strain Grade 1 Jeffery suffered a minor knee strain in practice but wasn't forced to miss any games as a result.

And he hurt his shoulder again during practice this year.

He's also dealt with serious injuries like a meniscus tear, a calf pull and a hamstring tear that forced him to miss time. But those aside, even if the practice injuries are minor nicks, I don't understand why it keeps happening. I like his situation this year but I'm just not so sure his body is ever going to cooperate with him.

 
SameSongNDance said:
I try not to let injury history effect my decisions because it does usually seem random but with some players it instead seems inevitable.

I look at Jeffery and my question is, how the #### does this dude always injure himself in practice?

Sep 17, 2015 NFL Thigh Hamstring Sprain/Pull Unspecified Grade 1 Alshon re-aggrivated his leg injury during practice and was ruled out for the following 4 games.

Nov 11, 2015 NFL Inguinal Groin Pull Grade 1 Jeffery suffered another injury during practice. He suffered a minor groin pull but didn't miss any games from the injury.

Nov 24, 2015 NFL Shoulder Alshon Jeffery suffered a shoulder injury during practice but didn't miss any games because of it.

Aug 5, 2016 NFL Thigh Hamstring Sprain/Pull Unspecified Grade 1 Jeffery is nursing a sore hamstring suffered during preseason practice.

Sep 21, 2016 NFL Knee Strain Grade 1 Jeffery suffered a minor knee strain in practice but wasn't forced to miss any games as a result.

And he hurt his shoulder again during practice this year.

He's also dealt with serious injuries like a meniscus tear, a calf pull and a hamstring tear that forced him to miss time. But those aside, even if the practice injuries are minor nicks, I don't understand why it keeps happening. I like his situation this year but I'm just not so sure his body is ever going to cooperate with him.
Click to expand...
He's on a one-year deal looking for his next big deal.  if there was any year to buy, it's now.

 
cloppbeast said:
Don't forget that Alshon's 'injury prone' too. 
Click to expand...
I don't think you can predict ACL injuries or broken bones (or a lacerated kidney in the case of Keenan Allen), but soft tissue injuries do seem to recur in some folks. Just ask Miles Austin... the dude's hammies could never get right.

 
Realistic expectations here?  Over 600 pass attempts last year, from a rookie QB.  Ryan Mathews and Jordan Matthews gone.  Camp reports not glowing for Blount.  Ertz is there sure, but what other WRs?

 
Chaka said:
I am pretty sure contract year analyses don't hold up under scrutiny.
Click to expand...


FF Ninja said:
Indeed. It is the fantasy football equivalent of an old wives' tale.
Click to expand...
It's not something that should be used fro every case, I agree.  It is one I'm using in his case though.  He went looking for big money in the off-season and didn't get it.  I think he's extra motivated this season.  Motivation is also something with him that's been an issue in the past.  I'm not worrying about it this year.

matttyl said:
Realistic expectations here?  Over 600 pass attempts last year, from a rookie QB.  Ryan Mathews and Jordan Matthews gone.  Camp reports not glowing for Blount.  Ertz is there sure, but what other WRs?
Click to expand...
90-1250-12

 
matttyl said:
Realistic expectations here? Over 600 pass attempts last year, from a rookie QB. Ryan Mathews and Jordan Matthews gone. Camp reports not glowing for Blount. Ertz is there sure, but what other WRs?
Click to expand...
We have very little history to work with so I find this hard to project but I can try.

I don't know how I feel about working with 607 pass attempts..

Despite having an aggressive quarterback willing to fit the ball into tight windows in Carson Wentz, Pederson was forced to play relatively close to the vest last season. Philadelphia was 18th in overall pass-play rate (59.4%), 20th in red zone pass-play rate (53.7%), 26th in rate of attempts traveling 16+ yards downfield (15.8%), and 27th in situation-neutral pace (31.5 seconds between plays). Despite upgrading at receiver in the offseason, Wentz could throw less in 2017. The Philadelphia Inquirerreported Wentz felt too much was resting on his shoulders last season and he reportedly developed a sore elbow from throwing more than he'd ever had in his career. Pederson promised to "take a little bit off" Wentz's plate this year, according to Comcast SportsNet Philadelphia. - 4for4
Click to expand...
PHI finished 6th with 38.1 pass attempts per game last year. I'd feel safer projecting them middle of the pack which in any given year is ~36 pass attempts per game. So let's assume we're working with a 575 pass attempts.

I wanted to look back at Pederson's history to see if he's ever really fed a WR but it's hard for me to find good player comps. I know Reid calls the plays in KC but let's look at Pederson's stint at the OC there. In 2013 Bowe saw 21% of Smith's targets and is realistically the best comp. Maclin saw 28% in 14 and 21% in 15 but he lined up in the slot on ~50% of his snaps.

Last year, if you prorate Matthews targets he would've seen ~22% of the targets but again, he predominately lined up in the slot. We do have an extremely small sample size from DHB last year, who was peppered with 8, 10 and 10 targets in weeks 11-13 (which also coincides with a Matthews injury) which accounted for 20% of Wentz's pass attempts in that time frame; he best fits the mold of your prototypical X receiver.

Ultimately, I feel most comfortable projecting Jeffery to see a 21-23% target share on 575 pass attempts. I currently have him seeing 130 targets and finishing with a 75/1093/8 stat line. He's my WR18 and that also so happens to be exactly where he's being drafted. There's upside for more, because frankly there's a lot of unknowns (new team, relatively new coach/QB) but the conclusion I came to after all of this is that Agholor probably represents really good value as he'll be manning the slot. 

 
matttyl said:
Realistic expectations here?  Over 600 pass attempts last year, from a rookie QB.  Ryan Mathews and Jordan Matthews gone.  Camp reports not glowing for Blount.  Ertz is there sure, but what other WRs?
Click to expand...
I think they dial back those pass attempts to around 550 (still pretty robust). Alshon should get about 130 of those targets, historically catching about 57% which would put him at 75 rec. Not sure 15.0 ypc is realistic here (it's his career rate, but I don't take Wentz to be the risk taker that Cutler was), but if we use that we're at 1125 yards. TDs are a crapshoot, but let's say Wentz improves from 16 to 24 this year, I'll give Alshon 25% of them which is a very, very good split (33% is rare). That leaves us with 75/1125/6 as a realistic number for a possibly unrealistic projection of 16 games played.

 
I think after a relatively slow start to the season we may see a uptick for Jeffrey, he was going against 5 top CB's the 1st 5 and his schedule opens up from here, good buy low opportunity, Wentz can really sling it.

 
bb7278 said:
I think after a relatively slow start to the season we may see a uptick for Jeffrey, he was going against 5 top CB's the 1st 5 and his schedule opens up from here, good buy low opportunity, Wentz can really sling it.
Click to expand...
The caution here is that Wentz doesn't lock in on any one (except maybe Ertz sometimes). So I do think better days are ahead, who knows how good they may be.

 
Insein said:
The caution here is that Wentz doesn't lock in on any one (except maybe Ertz sometimes). So I do think better days are ahead, who knows how good they may be.
Click to expand...
Well he's on pace for less than 800 yards and only about 6 TDs.  I'm taking the over on both.  I know he didn't go over 800 by that much the last two years, but he also missed a total of 11 games over those two seasons.

 
matttyl said:
Well he's on pace for less than 800 yards and only about 6 TDs.  I'm taking the over on both.  I know he didn't go over 800 by that much the last two years, but he also missed a total of 11 games over those two seasons.
Click to expand...
There's going to be a game (maybe even Thursday) where the Eagles are playing a tough defense and Alshon will have to be like a #1 just grabbing balls done by sheer will. 

 
I thought for sure that Jeffery would put up some solid numbers in a pretty good offense, At this point he’s little more than a high upside #3.

 
Saboo said:
I thought for sure that Jeffery would put up some solid numbers in a pretty good offense, At this point he’s little more than a high upside #3.
Click to expand...
That is the upside here though. It is a good offense (#3 overall behind NE and KC). So just like Jordy Nelson has some down games in GB, Alshon may be going through that right now. 

 
Insein said:
That is the upside here though. It is a good offense (#3 overall behind NE and KC). So just like Jordy Nelson has some down games in GB, Alshon may be going through that right now. 
Click to expand...
He still looks good.  Wentz went his way early, they just had crap coverage on algholor and others throughout game.

 
bb7278 said:
I think after a relatively slow start to the season we may see a uptick for Jeffrey, he was going against 5 top CB's the 1st 5 and his schedule opens up from here, good buy low opportunity, Wentz can really sling it.
Click to expand...
I love Jeffery’s presence. He draws the #1 CB and becomes a proverbial sacrificial lamb as it were. Which benefits everyone else in an offense that is guided by a budding spread it around franchise QB but doesn’t benefit fantasy players looking for the feature guy

I can’t see his fantasy role increasing exponentially going forward. This is a spread it around, multifaceted offense.

 
Is it too early to laugh at the 90-1250-12 projection? Even my 130-75/1125/6 is looking a bit too optimistic. He's currently on pace for 122-64/787/6... I did mention the likelihood that his career YPR would dip but didn't actually ding him for it. Seems that was a mistake. However, given the lower YPR, I'm assuming his average depth of target has decreased, so his catch rate should go up (currently it is at 53%, down from 57% career), so Alshon owners in PPR should hold out some hope for improvement in receptions per game. The best news for owners has to be that he's played 5 games without appearing on the injury report. I still think he's got WR2 upside here. 122 targets in a good offense is nothing to shake a stick at...

 
FF Ninja said:
Is it too early to laugh at the 90-1250-12 projection? Even my 130-75/1125/6 is looking a bit too optimistic. He's currently on pace for 122-64/787/6... I did mention the likelihood that his career YPR would dip but didn't actually ding him for it. Seems that was a mistake. However, given the lower YPR, I'm assuming his average depth of target has decreased, so his catch rate should go up (currently it is at 53%, down from 57% career), so Alshon owners in PPR should hold out some hope for improvement in receptions per game. The best news for owners has to be that he's played 5 games without appearing on the injury report. I still think he's got WR2 upside here. 122 targets in a good offense is nothing to shake a stick at...
Click to expand...
He's had a murderers row of CBs on him but he sure doesn't look like the fantasy stud from when him and Cutler were on the Bears.  His schedule gets easier I think and he'll miss Josh Norman in the 2nd meeting with the Skins.  I'd take that line if that what it ends up being in PPR.

 
I like Alshon's future schedule, especially compared to his recent past. Also like Wentz and Eagles OL. Assuming he stays healthy, he could be much better as this year progresses. He's always been a tad slow, but he's a huge target and has mitts for hands.

 
CentralPA said:
He's had a murderers row of CBs on him but he sure doesn't look like the fantasy stud from when him and Cutler were on the Bears.  His schedule gets easier I think and he'll miss Josh Norman in the 2nd meeting with the Skins.  I'd take that line if that what it ends up being in PPR.
Click to expand...
Yeah, he might be a good buy low. But I just feel like the week I trade for him would be the week he'd pull a hammy.

 
I'm trying to decide if I should keep Will Fuller or trade him while hot for someone like Alshon. Lots of risk either way.

 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

socrates
Crazy Early Dynasty Rookie PPR Draft Board (2023 Updated Rankings Page 5)
3 4 5
Replies
213
Views
25K
socrates
socrates
Faust
RB Leonard Fournette, FA
70 71 72
Replies
4K
Views
223K
EBF
EBF
Faust
Official David Cobb - RB Titans Dynasty & Redraft:
4 5 6
Replies
291
Views
22K
Bri
B

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 1 (members: 0, guests: 1)
Back
Top