As a fan of the Orioles, I would love to say winning last night's game makes the Ponson situation easy to ignore but the realist in me will not allow that to happen.
Mr. Krispy Kreme got smoked last night by a Sweeney-less Royals team that is about as potent as my local high school's varsity squad.
The Orioles will need Ponson to step up because chances are Chen and Bedard aren't going to be able to sustain their current pace. While I agree with other posters regarding how much Ray Miller has helped this staff, it is not possible that virtually unknown players will all come out of nowhere to win 15-18 games each.
Again, Ponson's lard ###, unfortunately, will be a key component of the Orioles winning their division or the AL wildcard.
Why is everyone so gung ho on claiming the Orioles can't keep it up? Do you think Steve Kline will flat out blow 4 out of every 30 games for the Orioles? Do you think Palmero will bat .220 for the season? And getting Sosa and Matos back could help them. The fact is there are lots of players on the Orioles who may play BETTER than they are currently playing and that could easily compensate for a drop off in other players not playing as well as they have in the beginning of the season.
Player(age)---2005 OPS/2004 OPS/career OPSSosa(37)---779/849/890
down 70 from last year
Roberts(27)---1122/720/729
up almost 400 from lifetime
Matos(26)---776/608/696
up 80 from lifetime
Palmeiro(40)---717/795/887
down 80 from last year
Tejada(29)---990/894/813
up 100 from last year, 180 from lifetime
Mora(33)---831/981/814
down 150 from last year, 17 better than lifetime
Lopez(34)---827/873/843
down about 50 from last year, 15 below lifetime
Gibbons(28)---846/682/771
160 above last year, 75 above lifetime
Surhoff(40)---706/785/749
down 80 from last year, 40 from lifetime
Bigbie(28)---602/768/739
down 165 from last year, 135 from lifetime
The problem with these batters that the numbers don't particularly show is that many of them have aged past their prime (~25-29) and
shouldn't even be expected to duplicate last year's numbers nevermind career(Mora, Tejada, Palmeiro, Surhoff, Sosa). Throw in the fact that old guys are more probne to injury and you can see why the prognosticators are out.
Player(age)---2005 ERA/2004 ERA/career ERA
Ponson(29)---5.94/5.30/4.71
Lopez(30)---4.47/3.59/4.43
Bedard(27)---2.35/4.59/3.99
Cabrera(25)---4.93/5.00/4.98
Chen(29)---3.38/3.02/4.35
So this looks pretty good because the bullpen is doing very well, but...
Do you think this rotation will have a season as good (and therefore not cause overuse of the bullpen) as the Yankees or Red Sox? I just don't see it. See for yourself:
Ponson, Lopez, Bedard, Cabrera, Chen
Johnson, Mussina, Pavano, Wright, Brown
Schilling, Wells, Wakefield, Arroyo, Miller, Clement
Keep in mind also, that Ponson is pitching much better than the above ERA as he got destroyed the other night.