I think the O's will finish in first, but obviously both of our opinions are biased, so theres no real point in us having such a discussion.
LOL JWV.You are definately a Homer. How come when Homer discussions come up on this board, your name isn't in the mix.
The Orioles are toast. They will hang around for a little while but its painfully obvious that they don't have the pitching to go far.
Of course, I'm a homer. But I do know when I'm being totally homerish(like picking the Wizards to beat the Heat), and I'm not doing that here. I definitely think the O's have a shot. Let me ask you something:Right now the O's have gotten to where they're at(in first place for months and 1/2 game out now) with the 17th ranked pitching and the 4th ranked offense. You claim that they don't have the pitching to go far, but that hasn't stopped them so far! Its not like the O's are pitching way over their heads and are due for a fall- they are the 17th ranked pitching team in the majors! So if that is good enough to get them to where they're at now, then why would you expect them to suddenly fall off? Do you really not think that their pitching is good enough to be 17th?
Thats the thing! I keep hearing how the O's are just playing above their heads and theres no way that it will hold up. But other than Roberts and Bedard breaking out this year(two young players entering their primes who don't appear to be falling off anytime soon) what exactly hasn't been such a surprise to you? And why do you think they can't keep it up? If anything, I would think that they would only improve once Bedard gets back.
Brian Roberts is hitting .357. You don't think that will fall off? Even if it doesn't, think about what you're saying. Fourth in offense and 17th in pitching is usually not a formula for the playoffs. Yes, they've won a lot of games so far, but doesn't that mean they've overachieved their statistical production a little? Would you really pick team X to continue to win with a good but not the best offense and a middle of the road pitching staff if you weren't a fan of them?
Compare what you're saying to a player who has won twenty straight times with AA. That's a very good starting hand. And with such a good starting hand, he probably should win a lot. But is that player somehow more likely to win with AA next time? No. It's no more likely that he'll continue to beat the odds than it is for the Os to continue to win games with middle of the road pitching.
That's no indictment of the team - what they've done so far is impressive and there's a lot of character on that ball club. In fact, if anything, I'm rooting for them to win the wild card behind the Sox. But to do it, I think the Orioles would have to statistically improve to make the playoffs.
I don't think the offense is going to get better - it seems to me like pretty much everyone but Sosa has played over their heads so far. And barring an acquisition, I don't think the pitching's going to get much better either, although getting Bedard back may help them get back on a win streak.
One way or the other it's going to be an interesting pennant race, and they've played some great baseball so far. As a baseball fan I hope you're right and they do keep it up. But as a betting man I just think they're going to cool off in the second half.