Well, I'm into my second Green Flash IPA already, so my objectivity and coherence will be on a steady decline from here on out, even as my posting frequency continues to accelerate with each additional beer.
To my GBs, Roadkill and Uruk-Hai, I've really enjoyed discussing this season together. All of us seem to share a fairly rational and objective outlook on our home team, which seems to be a rare commodity around the NFL, and virtually non-existent here in Charm City. Unfortunately, I can't guarantee that today, but I'll catch up with you here tomorrow. Just hope I don't puke all over myself and/or the game thread come 6:30 tonight.
Here a few random thoughts heading into today.
1. Remember when Flacco couldn't beat the 4-3 and was exposed whenever he played a 4-3 defense? He did a nice job vs. Cincy twice this year, but still struggled big-time vs. other 4-3 defenses. The Pats flip-flip between 4-3 and 3-4. The more I thought about this game, the more I began to feel like Bellichick will come out in a 4-3, make Flacco sustain long drives and complete throws into tight windows, and not let the Ravens go over the top. In fact, I now expect the Pats on certain passing downs to sometimes rush only 3 (maybe even 2) and drop everyone into coverage. I can just see Flacco standing there all day, patting the ball, getting fidgety and then finally throwing it over someone's head on an out route to the sideline, or checking down to a double-covered Rice for no gain. I think the Pats would be crazy to give Baltimore's WRs single coverage on the outside.
2. The Ravens aren't going to come out on offense and change things up. They just aren't. While I think there would truly be a chance for them to succeed if they come out with 3 WRs, stretch the field outside with the speed of Evans and Smith, then work underneath to Boldin and the TE (not Rice, who is going to be tightly covered no matter what), it's just not going to happen. They tried that a couple times, got embarrassed, and have decided that they're going to ride their 2 WR, 2 TE attack all the way to the end, even if it brings them up short.
3. In rewatching the Houston game, Suggs had a very, very good game. For almost the entire game, he was in a two-point stance and his primary responsibility was setting the edge vs. a potential run. And he had a great game vs. the run. On the very first possession, after the long kickoff return, Houston had a third-and-one inside the Ravens 20. The Texans tried to run to their right, and Suggs completely blew the play up, knocking the RT into the backfield, forcing Foster wide where Ray slowed him down and Reed stopped him for a slight loss. That was a huge play in the game, holding Houston to a FG. He was also jamming TEs off the line and dropping into coverage, even successfully covering Andre Johnson on two plays. On the very rare occasions when he got into his four-point stance and came on an all-out pass rush, Suggs generated excellent pressure. On the pass at that the goalline that Reed knocked down but didn't pick, Suggs probably saved a TD - the TE had run down the seam then completely beaten Pollard on a post route, but Yates couldn't pull the trigger because Suggs was all over him, flushing him right where he threw up the duck that Reed almost got. There was also one great stunt I saw where Ngata crashed to his right occupying the Guard and Center, while Suggs swooped behind him into the vacated hole and came right up in Yates' face. Knowing how Brady hates heat up the center, I hope we see this again.
That being said, seeing a TE run a wide-open post vs. Pollard kind of gave me a sick feeling heading into this game about what NE's TEs could do to him. But my final thought is something I heard the defensive players say about Pagano earlier this season -- he's extremely smart and self-aware of the Ravens' own shortcomings. I think we've seen that in the adjustments he's made all season to limit opponents - Foster only had 37 second half yards last week. And they say that his knowledge of the Ravens' shortcomings sometimes allows him to set traps for opponents - if we all know how bad Ray and Pollard are in pass coverage, then of course Pagano knows it. I just can't believe he's going to sit back and let the season end as the Pats exploit the Ravens' greatest weakness. So I wonder if he's somehow going to bait Brady into thinking Ray is singled up in coverage on someone and then have Reed or someone else jump the route. Just a thought.
Anyway, enjoy the game - I think first team to 30 wins. I'll say Pats 31, Ravens 27.
Now I remember why I stopped listening to local sports talk.
Good season, Ravens. Made the AFC North proud and my condolences on a heartbreaking loss. Thought for sure they had it there, at the end.
