*** Official Baseball Wagering Thread *** (1 Viewer)

[Angry Beavers]

YTD:

Totals 8-12-1 -4.85 units

Sides 12-8 +5.39 units

You look at this and wonder why I bother to play totals?

Relative to the Dog system, RS, the script seems to be working well. I would not consider Cincy a dog system play as Zambrano will be a top 20 NL pitcher when all is done. I would also be careful with SD as a dog system play as Lowe will likely be top 20 in the NL when all is said and done.

I think Houston with Oswalt offers incredible value tonight as a dog.

Philly has not exactly been setting the world on fire. In fact, they have been pretty bad.

I am very unsure about this afternoon's game. I will likely pass unless someone has a great reason for a play. Be back with plays later.

GLTA

 

[East Coast Bias]

YTD Sides: 29-15 +15.28

Phillies -110

Tigers +135

Reds +139

Devil Rays +190

Royals +150

Nationals +175

 

[Angry Beavers]

With Ramirez out too.......

Cincy +152 is a dog chase play today. if they lose, play em' again tomorrow

more plays to come

GLTA

 

[guru_007]

Nothing jumps out at me tonight...but:ACTION parlay:Colorado (Hirsh) +138 @ LAD (Penny)San Diego (Maddux) -136) vs SFG (Lowry)Risk 1 unit to make 3YTD +.7 units

Action parlay didn't pan out so well....took yesterday off as nothing was too attractive. Today there are a number of good situations and I'll begin with this little number.RL parlay:Baltimore -1.5 (Bedard)/KC (Cy Duckworth)+130Minnesota -1.5 (Santana)/TB (Kazmir) +105risk 1.5 units to win 5.4 units.YTD -.3 unitsStill right around even for the year, want to make a score tonight. I faded Duckworth in his first outing and got burned, but I'll go to the well again here. I do not believe he is a major league quality starter, and I think on the road he is going to get beat up good. I get Baltimore's best pitcher coming off a quality road start against the Yankees, and a little home cooking. Nice value on the run line here, imo....as you have to lay -170 to get this straight. KC's offense is meager, and their bullpen is weak, I'll roll the dice.The other game I really love Santana in this spot. At home, against a quality pitcher, Santana tends to rise to the occasion. But what I really like is Tampa's young bats going against a crafty pitcher. I see them flailing away helpless at the change and being overpowered by the fastball. Kazmir is a fine starting pitcher, at home. On the road he is not quite as effective, hitters batted nearly 100 points higher against him on his road starts. That should lead to the Tampa Bay bullpen which is about as ineffective as they come. I liked these plays enough that I bumped up my bet just a bit. There are a few more plays I'm pondering right now, and at least one more straight bet I think I'll post in a while.g'luck

 

[RoarinSonoran]

Relative to the Dog system, RS, the script seems to be working well. I would not consider Cincy a dog system play as Zambrano will be a top 20 NL pitcher when all is done. I would also be careful with SD as a dog system play as Lowe will likely be top 20 in the NL when all is said and done.

Cincy +152 is a dog chase play today. if they lose, play em' again tomorrow

So, Cincy ISN'T a Dog System play, but they ARE a Dog Chase play? Who gets credit for the pick if they win? (they're currently down 2-0 in the 2nd)I was just posting those plays just to track 'em in order to see how the script is doing. I haven't been gambling regularly in over a year (since SB 40; one play on the Kentucky Derby last year, and then blew the $10 that sportsbook.com gave me a couple weeks ago in the Final Four ).

 

[Schmegma]

AB, your system, in a nutshell, is finding value, on the stipulation that the dog you're betting on isn't TOO cold, and that the fave you're fading isn't TOO hot. Makes sense to me. I don't see why keeping us abreast of it hurts anybody.

I will post him as I find them. This is not my creation, far from it, I just happened to stumble across it when surfing.

I'd like to read more about this. Roarin - maybe you could build us another web page.

 

[Schmegma]

Good luck sickos. Schmegma doesn't want me to post in this thread, I must leave now, the bars are calling my name tonight.

 

[Angry Beavers]

http://forums.statfox.com/forum/showthread....php#post400159

The link that Schmegma asked for.....................

 

[Schmegma]

where do most people bet these days?

betus.comthegreek.com

I use bookmaker. It used to be betcris but all US accounts were moved over to bookmaker. It is still powered by cris.

We have one out (betjamaica) so if it's close, we're running with it.

I have quite a bit of money in bookmaker (CRIS). It generally sucks as a bases out. However, I would transfer money to open up another out at say BetJam. Account transfers may be the easiest way for everyone to get multiple outs.

The Greek and Bet Jamaica will take debit cards but its just a matter if your bank allows it to go through. Some banks do, some don't. I tend to think the smaller banks are more lax about it than say Bank of America or Wells Fargo or someone high profile like that. I have a debit card that works.

So, am I correct in assuming that the vast majority of you are using betjam?Would this be a good "ranking" of the sites available to US bettors that have been mentioned in this thread?Bet JamaicaThe GreekBookmakerBetUSWhere else do you guys do your betting these days with sites like Pinny out of the picture?

 

[Jefferson the Caregiver]

Bet JamaicaThe GreekBookmakerBetUSWhere else do you guys do your betting these days with sites like Pinny out of the picture?

I can only speak for Bet Jam and the Greek (Olympic) which are actually owned by the same company. Its a reliable safe out and they get their lines out pretty early. I have been using Bet Jam for baseball since they have a .10 line, I haven't been using the Greek for baseball at all this year but I know in the past they had a .20 line and if that's still the case, I would for sure use Bet Jamaica.

 

[RoarinSonoran]

http://forums.statfox.com/forum/showthread....php#post400159

The link that Schmegma asked for.....................

Wow, that system didn't seem very popular. Note the post dates. OP was beginning of the season, 2005. There were 12 replies, and then *poof*, nothing more for two years (almost to the day). The OP apparently is no longer around, and subsequent posts make it seem like it'll disappear for another two years. ETA: nevermind, I see another thread that is current and active. This was just the original with the description.

It incorporates several pieces of the Dog System, so it wouldn't be too hard to program. I'd have to find sources for last-three-years-record-against-a-team, schedules to figure out when a series starts, and perhaps a team's record in each stadium, but it could be doable.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Monday the Rockies will be back home, just a reminder for those into the over system...

 

[Angry Beavers]

http://forums.statfox.com/forum/showthread....php#post400159

The link that Schmegma asked for.....................

Wow, that system didn't seem very popular. Note the post dates. OP was beginning of the season, 2005. There were 12 replies, and then *poof*, nothing more for two years (almost to the day). The OP apparently is no longer around, and subsequent posts make it seem like it'll disappear for another two years. It incorporates several pieces of the Dog System, so it wouldn't be too hard to program. I'd have to find sources for last-three-years-record-against-a-team, schedules to figure out when a series starts, and perhaps a team's record in each stadium, but it could be doable.

If you go to page one at statfox forum there is a new thread discuss the plays for the upcoming weekend series:Cincy, and Hou; STL just misses qualifying for those interested.

It was started by JKaul. He has been starting a new thread for each set of series (the early week series and late week series)!

Your decision to do it or not is strictly upto you. It would be awesome if you did and I would be very happy to try to help you find the databases you need but frankly am of zilcho help when it comes to programming the sucker. As it is, the dog system page is mydaily printout every am and serves as my cheatsheet in working thru the schedule for that day.

 

[Angry Beavers]

adding

Houston -110 ( the odds ought to throw it out of the chase but i can't pass on Oswalt at those odds)

Washington +175: pelfrey on Hill, Washington on one game winnings streak and Mets fresh off of 6 games versus division rivals. I think Washington gets this one

Fla -107; Riding the D-Train

GLTA

 

[guru_007]

I'm adding one more play for now.

o8.5 SF(Ortiz)/Pitt(Duke) +100

I think Pittsburgh gets ahead early for the home crowd, and blows it late, something like a 7-5 affair. Ortiz is very hittable, and the heart of the Bucs lineup should feast. The Pitt bullpen is empty after Matt Capps. Salomon Torres is shaky, blowing his last two I believe. SF should be able to muster up a few runs. I like it.

Almost pulled the trigger on the o8 in Oswalt/Myers tonight....as Oswalt is not quite the same pitcher on the road, and Philly's park is hitter friendly. But, both teams are struggling offensively, one pitcher could very well get a shut out.

g'luck

 

[Angry Beavers]

With Ramirez out too.......Cincy +152 is a dog chase play today. if they lose, play em' again tomorrowmore plays to comeGLTA

down 5-0 I definately stole that one!

 

[Green94]

RL parlay:Baltimore -1.5 (Bedard)/KC (Cy Duckworth)+130Minnesota -1.5 (Santana)/TB (Kazmir) +105risk 1.5 units to win 5.4 units.

Hey Guru, are those lines on the right what you are getting on those runlines?

 

[guru_007]

RL parlay:Baltimore -1.5 (Bedard)/KC (Cy Duckworth)+130Minnesota -1.5 (Santana)/TB (Kazmir) +105risk 1.5 units to win 5.4 units.

Hey Guru, are those lines on the right what you are getting on those runlines?

Correct. I believe when I bet these, the ML was Baltimore -170, Minnesota -220

 

[Green94]

RL parlay:Baltimore -1.5 (Bedard)/KC (Cy Duckworth)+130Minnesota -1.5 (Santana)/TB (Kazmir) +105risk 1.5 units to win 5.4 units.

Hey Guru, are those lines on the right what you are getting on those runlines?

Correct. I believe when I bet these, the ML was Baltimore -170, Minnesota -220

Gotcha, that is some pretty good value for 2 aces.

 

[guru_007]

RL parlay:Baltimore -1.5 (Bedard)/KC (Cy Duckworth)+130Minnesota -1.5 (Santana)/TB (Kazmir) +105risk 1.5 units to win 5.4 units.

Hey Guru, are those lines on the right what you are getting on those runlines?

Correct. I believe when I bet these, the ML was Baltimore -170, Minnesota -220

Gotcha, that is some pretty good value for 2 aces.

That's the way I see it too. I've got a huge pitching advantage in the Baltimore game. If Bedard goes deep and Duckworth shows his true colors, Baltimore should win this one 9 games out of 10. The other game is a bit more difficult though, as Kazmir is a very good pitcher....however, I have a huge bullpen advantage, so if the game is close, I think the Twins have a much better chance of winning by a few runs than Tampa does. In that game, I think I'm good closer to 6/10 times. If Baltimore could hit consistently (or had a bullpen), I would have bet them only and laid a few units on it...or if I was up for the year. As it stands, I can wager just a unit and a half and win over five, and that's what I'd prefer to do right now so early in the baseball season.

 

[RoarinSonoran]

Just wanted to jot these down for Friday as the Dog System has just enough data to totally mess you up. CIN +145HOU +103SF +144SD +118DET/TOR u8 +102

4-0 +494 so far.It's times like this that I wish I could win a few bets like this so I can have the mad money in order to actually bet them. :catch22:

 

[Angry Beavers]

Just to update the record. May not be able to play anything tomorrow... traveling all day.

YTD:

Totals 8-12-1 -4.85 units

Sides 13-9 +5.39 units

Chase Plays (Which are not part of the above):

7-5 +5.27 units

GLTA

 

[RoarinSonoran]

Just to update the record. May not be able to play anything tomorrow... traveling all day.

Bet tomorrow's plays tonight!

 

[prosopis]

So far I haveHou +100Det/Tor U8 +100TB/Minn U7.5 -120 (This bet was made in error. I hit the wrong button when putting in my Det/Tor bet)

I even got my accident play yesterday.

 

[prosopis]

YTD 17/7/1

parlay 4/3

units +24

 

[prosopis]

Today I have:

Fla +110

Oak +109

Parlay Bos -196,NYM -260, Az -125

 

[guru_007]

Action parlay didn't pan out so well....took yesterday off as nothing was too attractive. Today there are a number of good situations and I'll begin with this little number.RL parlay:Baltimore -1.5 (Bedard)/KC (Cy Duckworth)+130Minnesota -1.5 (Santana)/TB (Kazmir) +105risk 1.5 units to win 5.4 units.YTD -.3 units

I'm adding one more play for now.o8.5 SF(Ortiz)/Pitt(Duke) +100I think Pittsburgh gets ahead early for the home crowd, and blows it late, something like a 7-5 affair. Ortiz is very hittable, and the heart of the Bucs lineup should feast. The Pitt bullpen is empty after Matt Capps. Salomon Torres is shaky, blowing his last two I believe. SF should be able to muster up a few runs. I like it.Almost pulled the trigger on the o8 in Oswalt/Myers tonight....as Oswalt is not quite the same pitcher on the road, and Philly's park is hitter friendly. But, both teams are struggling offensively, one pitcher could very well get a shut out.g'luck

I actually hit a nice little number yesterday, but will not count it on my overall record. These two plays washed, as the over bet was for 1.5 units too (sorry I didn't post the amount)Tonight I have the following:RL Parlay:Minnesota(Ponson)/TB (Jackson) +140St Louis (Wells)/Milwaukee(Suppan)+165Risking 1.5 units to make 8 unitsMinnesota hurt me last night, but I'm going to give them another try here. It was an offensive lights out night for the Twins vs Kazmir, and that's to be expected from time to time. Tonight, Edwin Jackson takes the bump, and I fully expect the Twins to rebound. Twins are a fundamentally sound baseball team, good defense, good bullpen, get on base, take the extra base, etc... I like that against what I consider a much inferior team. Not a huge fan of Ponson...hopefully he can give me 5-6 strong and let the pen take the rest.In the other game, I've got one of the hottest pitchers in the league taking the mound, against one of the most overpaid pitchers in history. Suppan may be up for the game, seeing his old team....but at +165, I'm going to hope the Kipster gives me another huge performance, and the Cards offense can take out Suppan early. I'm a bit wary of the run line as I don't trust the Cards bullpen.....but the price seemed right to me.u9 Baltimore(Cabrera)/KC(O.P.)Risking 2.1 units to make 2 unitsCabrera certainly has the stuff to dominate this Royal lineup. Both teams are pretty weak offensively. Rainy, cloudy and cold is in the air tonight....maybe the game gets cut short I like it.ytd -.3 unitsg'luck

 

[skinnypimp]

Cards

Marlins

A's

Giants

Royals U9

 

[prosopis]

Today I have:Fla +110Oak +109Parlay Bos -196,NYM -260, Az -125

Not a good day yesterday. Frigging Mets ???????????I figured Az would be the game to screw that parlay not the Mets.YTD 17/8/1Parlay 4/4

 

[prosopis]

Today

SD/LA O7.5 -110

NYY/Oak U 8.5 -120

Det -110

Tex -105

There is no line for AZ yet but it looks like Kim is being put in for Lopez. I may be on Az depending on the price.

YTD 17/8/1

Parlay 4/4

units +22

 

[Gambler]

KC -101

LA-A +177

StL +105

 

[guru_007]

ytd -.3 unitsg'luck

Awful. Lost 3.6 units last night. Going to stop quoting losing plays to change my luck.Ytd -3.9 units

 

[Angry Beavers]

YTD:

Totals 8-12-1 -4.85 units

Sides 13-9 +5.39 units

Chase Plays (Which are not part of the above):

7-5 +5.27 units

Fla +160 - Great price here IMHO for Olsen ( even if he is facing a stud)

CIn/CHC O7.5 - I think very little of either starter

COl/AZ O9.5 - see above

GLTA

 

[prosopis]

This is a homer bet made on pure emotion.

Parlay Az -145, Col/Az O9.5 +100

I think Kim will implode here today. I like D Davis more then others. I see a 10-2 game here.

 

[Gambler]

Good stuff here on my first day!

 

[Gambler]

Prolly last day too!

 

[prosopis]

Good stuff here on my first day!

You mean, let me understand this cause, ya know maybe it's me, I'm a little ####ed up maybe, but I'm funny how, I mean funny like I'm a clown, I amuse you? I make you laugh, I'm here to ####in' amuse you? What do you mean funny, funny how? How am I funny? You said I'm funny. How the #### am I funny, what the #### is so funny about me? Tell me, tell me what's funny!

 

[guru_007]

Anybody like anything tonight?

My look is over, and San Diego, but I'm ice cold, so probably a Dodger shut out here.

 

[guru_007]

ytd -.3 unitsg'luck

Awful. Lost 3.6 units last night. Going to stop quoting losing plays to change my luck.Ytd -3.9 units

propper for tonight25 r+h+e (-130)risk 1.3 to make 1 unitWhy? Looked good at the time g'luck

 

[Angry Beavers]

1-2 today

Updated record:

YTD:

Totals 9-13-1 -4.85 units

Sides 13-10 +4.39 units

Chase Plays (Which are not part of the above):

7-5 +5.27 units

 

[prosopis]

meh day

2/2 and hit 1 parlay

YTD 19/10/1

parlay 5/4

units +24

 

[prosopis]

I have to get tomorrows plays in early so here they be.

Az +108

Pitt +117

NYM -105

Parlay Mil/Cinn O9 -115, Fla/Hou O9 -120

 

[Leroy Hoard]

OVER 9.5 - Rockies/Giants

 

[Gambler]

Good stuff here on my first day!

You mean, let me understand this cause, ya know maybe it's me, I'm a little ####ed up maybe, but I'm funny how, I mean funny like I'm a clown, I amuse you? I make you laugh, I'm here to ####in' amuse you? What do you mean funny, funny how? How am I funny? You said I'm funny. How the #### am I funny, what the #### is so funny about me? Tell me, tell me what's funny!

Checked all 3 of my posts and never said funny once! Must be a Joe Pesci fan?

 

[Angry Beavers]

YTD:

Totals 9-13-1 -4.85 units

Sides 13-10 +4.39 units

Chase Plays (Which are not part of the above):

7-5 +5.27 units

Plays for 4/16:

chase: Balt - 102 ( I will play until this hits)

MIL/Milton O 9 -115

SF/COL O9.5

SD +106

GLTA

 

[Gambler]

TB for 3 units

Pitt for 1 unit

 

[Steelnation]

San Fransico Giants (Zito +111)

Kansas City Royals (Greinke +175)

 

[guru_007]

ytd -.3 unitsg'luck

Awful. Lost 3.6 units last night. Going to stop quoting losing plays to change my luck.Ytd -3.9 units

propper for tonight25 r+h+e (-130)risk 1.3 to make 1 unitWhy? Looked good at the time g'luck

Alright, tonight's parlay will be:Milwaukee -1.5(capuano) @ Cinci (Milton) +135Houston (Rodriguez)/Florida (Sanchez) o9 -125risk 1 to win 3.2ytd -2.9Milton - awful. Capuano - serviceable. I also like Milwaukee's offense more than Cinci's right now. Thus, run line, on the road, I like.Rodriguez - awful. Sanchez - so/soI see runs tonight, as the heart of the Stros lineup woke up at Philadelphia, and Florida's lineup has been pretty good all year.Also, big line for the Nats tonight....didn't they just play at Shea, and now they get some home cooking? Chico is the man.

 

[Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll]

San Fransico Giants (Zito +111) Kansas City Royals (Greinke +175)

I don't mean to Marshall Plan you, but that Giants line you got is off by a decent amount...around 15 cents.

 

[prosopis]

I have to get tomorrows plays in early so here they be.Az +108Pitt +117NYM -105Parlay Mil/Cinn O9 -115, Fla/Hou O9 -120

pisserYTD 19/11/2Parlay 5/5Units +23