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***Official*** Christian Hackenberg Thread (1 Viewer)

With 1,2 definitely being QBs I could absolutely see Hackenberg sneak into the end of the 1st. Remember that 5th year option could be a nice perk especially if a team is (rightfully) planning to sit him a year. 

 
Have to put this in here. As I've posted a couple of times, PFF is all in on the 'Hack sucks' prediction. To explain more, what I've noticed the last several months is that anytime there is an article or news about Hack that isn't terribly negative (Pro Day, MMQB article, BattleRedBlog review, etc), one or more of the PFF guys tweet out their almost over the top negative opinion of him. And honestly, most of the time, they're not even responding to someone tweeting them about Hack or asking their opinion. It's just a negative tweet out of nowhere. It was really pretty funny to see them not mention him for 4 days, 6 days and then suddenly some positive article comes out and they attack.

Anyway, so I had been following PFF Steve, Sam and Josh noticing this, esp with Steve. But today, someone re-tweeted something PFF Neil (friend of Peter King and maybe the founder of PFF?) said about Hack that was obviously negative. So I replied to him asking about why so negative and attacking about Hack. He responded back in two tweets at first, with two interesting things. He said that Hack graded out as 41st out of 48 draft eligible QBs in his best season, so 2013. And therefore it would be unethical for them to hedge their bets and rate him any higher. I found that interesting and respected it. He also said that Hack sucked on tape and although lots of people vouch that he was better than that, they don't know him so they can't adjust him upward. Also respectful, if a little narrow minded to stats and tape.

Then it got weird. He then sent a picture of a longer write up that basically went on a rant against Hack having powerful backers in the media who were hyping him up and causing NFL teams to take him higher than he deserved. He then said maybe Hack will be good in the NFL because psychology tells us that people behave as they believe they are and if he's drafted high, maybe he'll believe he is better than he really is and perform better than he should. No joke. Then he said he feels bad for QBs like Brandon Allen who are much better than Hackenberg but don't have the powerful media people backing him up.

Wow. So I'm sure that he is right to a degree. But it must be nice to continuously say that a player will suck in the NFL, but if he does play well, it's only because he was better than we said he was because he was drafted higher and psychology and stuff.

Anyway, I do appreciate Neil responding to me although I'm not sure how to take their advice if they hedge by using psychology instead of just admitting they may be wrong.

But I'll certainly stop mentioning them here.

 
TFY Draft Insider's Tony Pauline reports that some of his NFL sources believe Penn State QB Christian Hackenberg will get taken before Paxton Lynch.
Out of nowhere, Hackenberg has been infused with some serious stock helium over the past 24 hours. First, MMQB's Peter King report that the Bills will consider him in Rd. 1, now the even more unbelievable dispatch that Hack may go over Lynch, who most consider a top-20 lock. Interestingly, just like King didn't believe that Buffalo would actually take Hack in Rd. 1, Pauline also doesn't believe Hack will go over Lynch. "I do not buy this opinion, but expect Hackenberg to be off the board during the early part of the second round as the San Francisco 49ers, Chicago Bears and Miami Dolphins are all considering him in the top half of that frame," Pauline wrote.

 
Source: Philadelphia Eagles website
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ConstruxBoy said:
I'm a PSU alum, so I'm rooting for Hack anyway. But I find him fascinating because to me, he could be a "canary in the coalmine."

Let me explain.

NFL draft "experts" fall into two camps: mock draft experts and ranking experts. There is a difference. A mock draft should be done to match the needs/tendencies of a NFL teams with the available prospects. It really has little to do with how well those prospects will ultimately perform in the NFL. They are "right" if they match the teams or range of draft with the prospect.

The ranking/tape/scout expert is much more interested in how those prospects perform in the NFL, draft position/stock be damned. There is nothing right or wrong about either group, as long as they are easily identified.

In my experience of following drafts for too long to remember, most folks that start as ranking/tape/scout guys quickly gravitate to mock draft guys. Even if they don't do mock drafts. The reason is simple. It's easier to match team with need, and people remember mock draft success (1st round only, of course) longer than they remember NFL success (multi-year by nature). The secret to being a mock draft guy is to listen to/get NFL team draft rumors and work those into your mock. You're more likely to be correct, regardless of how well those prospects ultimately do in the NFL.

So I prefer to understand which is which, or who is who, when I read draft news. In my experience, lots of guys who started as scout/tape guys are really mock draft guys. Kiper, Mayock, jeremiah, Brugler are all guys that seemed like scout guys at first, but seemed to quickly become mock draft guys. It's really more financially advantageous to try to mock what the NFL is going to do. I don't blame them. 

But there are still guys like Josh Norris and Matt Waldman (still holding on Alvin Pearman, Matt) who give a true scout/tape perspective. They're really much more helpful for fantasy football  purposes. To tap the breaks on the draft order avalanche.

So someone like Hackenberg is fascinating because his tape/stats are terrible (although I truly think he's much better than that), but his NFL draft rumor love (late first/early second) could be much higher than his scout/tape value (late second/early third). So it will be very interesting to me to see if he suddenly moves up in someone's "ranking" into a late first/early second round prospect. Even more so if he is drafted there. That will show you who is more interested in "mocking the draft" then giving you their true view of NFL potential.
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Canary, meet coal mine

 
So I think the thing with draft twitter having such a negative attitude toward Hack (and maybe you all already figured this out) is that they are afraid of him.

Draft Twitter is basically composed of two groups, tape guys and advanced stat guys. By both measures, especially advance stats, Hackenberg looks terrible. So they not only think he will be bad, but they are counting on it. And if he does decent to good in the NFL, it provides a point of invalidation for their methods. So they NEED him to suck at the NFL level. Otherwise people will say what about Hack when you use this stat, or what about Hack when you give this tape evaluation. What happened?

I appreciate that guys like PFF Neil say that they would be 'unethical' to move him up to hedge their analysis. And I get that. But even if you don't do that, it doesn't make sense to continually tweet and write articles about how much he sucks. You can rank him very low and just respond with your reasoning if someone asks. But to pound your very negative evaluation into everyone's head just seems to be setting yourself up for a worse fall if he's decent.

Anyway, fascinating to see where he goes in the draft and how he does in the league. I'm obviously hoping he proves all these folks wrong.

(Although as a Bills fan, I don't want them taking him at 19. Taylor is pretty good and we have much higher needs)

 
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ConstruxBoy said:
So I think the thing with draft twitter having such a negative attitude toward Hack (and maybe you all already figured this out) is that they are afraid of him.

Draft Twitter is basically composed of two groups, tape guys and advanced stat guys. By both measures, especially advance stats, Hackenberg looks terrible. So they not only think he will be bad, but they are counting on it. And if he does decent to good in the NFL, it provides a point of invalidation for their methods. So they NEED him to suck at the NFL level. Otherwise people will say what about Hack when you use this stat, or what about Hack when you give this tape evaluation. What happened?

I appreciate that guys like PFF Neil say that they would be 'unethical' to move him up to hedge their analysis. And I get that. But even if you don't do that, it doesn't make sense to continually tweet and write articles about how much he sucks. You can rank him very low and just respond with your reasoning if someone asks. But to pound your very negative evaluation into everyone's head just seems to be setting yourself up for a worse fall if he's decent.

Anyway, fascinating to see where he goes in the draft and how he does in the league. I'm obviously hoping he proves all these folks wrong.

(Although as a Bills fan, I don't want them taking him at 19. Taylor is pretty good and we have much higher needs)
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I don't know why Buffalo should even consider a QB. Like you said, Taylor looked pretty good last year, and the Bills need a lot. Even if Lynch is there at 19, that would be a bad pick.

 
I agree.

And to follow up on my Hack Hate ideas, I had a conversation with a draft guy on twitter I like named Justis who had tweeted out some negative Hackenberg stats. I asked him if he was hoping Hack fails in the NFL. And he said he wasn't hoping for it, but if he's successful he would need to re-think every part of his QB evaluation process. So I think that theory is pretty much dead on, although I don't see why Hack couldn't just be an Outlier.

Anyway, looking forward for tonight. One of the best nights of the year every year.

 
I really hope Hack lands in a great situation.....other than Houston, I'm really not sure where that could be. But I'm pulling for him nontheless. Wouldn't really mind Philly grabbing him late if he slips so far into Saturday.

 
Ruffrodys05 said:
I really hope Hack lands in a great situation.....other than Houston, I'm really not sure where that could be. But I'm pulling for him nontheless. Wouldn't really mind Philly grabbing him late if he slips so far into Saturday.
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I like Hack as well, but with Philly going Wentz they won't want to put someone like Hack over his shoulder.  Wentz is already questioned because he didn't go against top defenses, then you add a QB like Hack who was projected a top QB before the season started and fell because of accuracy issues.  

Don't want to create a QB contro before camp when you just traded up to get Wentz.   

 
Ruffrodys05 said:
I really hope Hack lands in a great situation.....other than Houston, I'm really not sure where that could be. But I'm pulling for him nontheless. Wouldn't really mind Philly grabbing him late if he slips so far into Saturday.
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Hack to ARZ. Would love to see that strong arm in that Arian vertical offense. No pressure to start right away either.

 
Johnny Bing said:
Don't want to create a QB contro before camp when you just traded up to get Wentz.   
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Seem to recall Washington taking a 2nd rookie QB, even though they traded up too. Yes, I know it was because Shanny didn't want Griffin in the first place, but in hindsight it really was a great hedge bet against that top QB failing. 

No, I don't realistically think the Eagles will do it, but today is the day to dream a little dream.....sigh....

 
OK, so here is my delusional fan boy theory on why Jets fans should be hopeful.

Hackenberg is an Outlier, ala Malcolm Gladwell. It's not a perfect analogy, but stay with me.

First of all, some of the problems are certainly on Hack himself. Probably less than 50%, IMO, but certainly more than 5%.

However, all I hear is that people have never seen two years of such bad tape, or such bad advanced statistics. And they're probably right. Because QBs doing that don't keep playing. They're benched. They keep looking terrible and they're benched for someone else and then waste away on the bench or transfer to a school running an offensive that fits their strengths. They don't just keep putting up bad tape and bad stats. So this guy gets a new coach and new offensive system that isn't good for his style (and really isn't that good at all). And he's playing teams with 15-20 more scholarship players than his team has. Not just on the offensive line, but other places on the offense. And the special teams, putting his offense in worse positions. And even the defense, which was still solid, but had some starters playing special teams due to player shortages. But he keeps playing.

I hear him compared to Logan Thomas, one good season and then downhill for two season. But Logan didn't get a new coach and offensive system. Even when he got a new OC in his third year, Scott Loeffler, it was running the same "pro style" system he had been running, as explained here . He didn't have a scholarship disadvantage, either. He just proved that he wasn't as good as his first year, with no special circumstances.

I've heard him compared to Reggie Ball, inconsistent and well, sucky. But Reggie Ball was in a offensive system suited to his style, with no coaching changes, no scholarship disadvantage and Calvin freaking Johnson to throw to for two seasons. He also clearly just wasn't very good and proved it each year.

Hackenberg was really in a completely unique situation for a college QB. And he kept playing.

Now I don't know why he kept playing, why he didn't transfer or get benched. McSorely looked at least decent in the second half of the bowl game after Hackenberg got hurt. Maybe he has pictures of Franklin with a goat. Who knows. The point is that he kept playing and putting up those bad stats and bad tape.

So it's certainly possible that he's better than the stats and tape he put up. But more importantly, he may have gained something from those disadvantages. He may have learned about dealing with those disadvantages that can help him in the NFL. He got reps learning how to avoid a rush (or try to, he wasn't always successful), how to throw it away (again, wasn't always successful), how to get up after getting hit repeatedly or just how to lead in the face of adversity.

Now he's in the NFL where he should be in a offense better suited for his talents (Chan Gailey), without a huge scholarship/talent disparity for his team (he wasn't drafted by the Browns, after all). He may be able to use those disadvantages in college to excel in the NFL. I don't think it would be that big of a surprise if he does. And neither should you.

 
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SaintsInDome2006 said:
The Jets need to face reality, resign Fitz, and develop Hack on the bench for a year.  They made great progress last year and they don't have half a season to kill coaching the rook up.
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Agree, Hackenberg will be destroyed if they throw him out there this year. Sign Fitz and let him play while Hack learns under Gailey who has already worked miracles with a much lesser talent in Fitzpatrick.

 
SaintsInDome2006 said:
The Jets need to face reality, resign Fitz, and develop Hack on the bench for a year.  They made great progress last year and they don't have half a season to kill coaching the rook up.
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I can't imagine Brandon Marshall is going to be happy camper if they don' bring Fitz back.

Also, if he isn't ruined already, they are going to ruin Hax if they throw him out there. 

 
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ConstruxBoy said:
Now he's in the NFL where he should be in a offense better suited for his talents (Chan Gailey), without a huge scholarship/talent disparity for his team (he wasn't drafted by the Browns, after all). 
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Interesting post, but I have a hard time following you here. Why do you think the Gailey offense is better suited for his talents? It seems to me to be an offense of precision throws to his play makers(Marshall/Decker) or short passes out of the backfield with touch. Some of his knocks have been staring down receivers and guys like Marshall/Decker already take a physical beating without LB/S's given a chance to tee-off on them as well. Do you expect a big step forward from Devin Smith? That seems like the only part of this offense that fits for Hackenberg.

I am honestly not hating on him(the criticism goes overboard imo) but I just think the NYJ are a very poor fit.

 
BoltBacker said:
Interesting post, but I have a hard time following you here. Why do you think the Gailey offense is better suited for his talents? It seems to me to be an offense of precision throws to his play makers(Marshall/Decker) or short passes out of the backfield with touch. Some of his knocks have been staring down receivers and guys like Marshall/Decker already take a physical beating without LB/S's given a chance to tee-off on them as well. Do you expect a big step forward from Devin Smith? That seems like the only part of this offense that fits for Hackenberg.

I am honestly not hating on him(the criticism goes overboard imo) but I just think the NYJ are a very poor fit.
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Well, I view the WRs, if not the offense, as a good fit for him because he is a 'not that accurate but throw it up and trust your WR' kind of QB. See Allen Robinson and throws to Jesse James and then Godwin and others last year. That's what a lot of tape watchers I've read say is a bad thing and inaccurate. However it shows trust in the WR and there a lot of QBs who can't do that well.

But in Marshall and Decker he has tall, strong WRs to throw to. I agree that the offense generally is more precise than throw it up, but I bet Gailey can tweek that a bit. 

I could certainly be wrong though.

 
ConstruxBoy said:
Well, I view the WRs, if not the offense, as a good fit for him because he is a 'not that accurate but throw it up and trust your WR' kind of QB. See Allen Robinson and throws to Jesse James and then Godwin and others last year. That's what a lot of tape watchers I've read say is a bad thing and inaccurate. However it shows trust in the WR and there a lot of QBs who can't do that well.

But in Marshall and Decker he has tall, strong WRs to throw to. I agree that the offense generally is more precise than throw it up, but I bet Gailey can tweek that a bit. 

I could certainly be wrong though.
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Ah, thanks for the response.

I think this league needs as much good QB play as they can get so I do hope he develops. Really wanted to see him in ARZ or maybe behind that DAL OL so we could see what he could do with a little bit of time.

Really hope they have patience with this guy, but it's not really a team built for patience. 

 
He went undrafted in my rookie dynasty. I think that's kind of crazy. I'm hoping to pick him up in one of the offseason auctions because the upside is tremendous at that price. 

 
 

ESPN Jets reporter Rich Cimini said Christian Hackenberg has looked like a "typical rookie" at OTAs.
That's not a compliment. Cimini said Hackenberg's passes have been "fluttering" and described his footwork as "robotic." During Wednesday's practice session, Hackenberg sailed two consecutive 15-yard passes over the head of his tight end with no defenders in sight. A rookie having a rough day in June isn't anything to lose sleep over but the second-round pick remains a work in progress. "Right now I expect him to look sloppy because he’s seeing a whole boat load of defenses that are coming at him daily, and there’s going to be a growth period," said head coach Todd Bowles. Hackenberg's development will take on greater importance if the Jets fail to re-sign Ryan Fitzpatrick.

 
 
Source: ESPN.com 
Jun 5 - 10:17 AM
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ESPN Jets reporter Rich Cimini believes second-round QB Christian Hackenberg might not play until the preseason finale.
Cimini reports Hackenberg is getting "very few practice reps" and looks like he is headed for a "redshirt year." The Jets understandably want to see if sophomore Bryce Petty can earn a roster spot or, better yet, the No. 2 job, but they also need to see what they have in Hackenberg before he inevitably sits out the entire season, especially considering Ryan Fitzpatrick is headed back into free agency next spring. Despite lucking out with Fitzpatrick, the Jets have seriously bungled the quarterback position the last two years.

 
 
Source: ESPN 
Aug 13 - 10:35 AM
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Christian Hackenberg completed 6-of-16 passes for 105 yards with one touchdown and one interception in Saturday's preseason game.
Hackenberg's debut performance showed exactly why he's buried on the team's depth chart. The second-round pick got hot for a stretch with four straight completions on a fourth-quarter touchdown drive but was a non-factor the rest of the night. He threw an ugly interception in his own end zone late in the fourth quarter to set up the Giants' game-winning drive and also took an inexcusable delay of game penalty. It was an uninspiring effort for Hackenberg, who is destined to spend his rookie year glued to the Jets' bench.

 
 
 
Aug 28 - 9:26 AM
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Christian Hackenberg completed 11-of-31 passes for 54 yards, zero touchdowns and an interception in Thursday's preseason game.


Even by the standards of a meaningless preseason game populated by second- and third-stringers, it's a stunningly-awful line. Things got so bad Philly Voice's Jimmy Kempski quipped Hackenberg's best throw was a spike. The No. 51 overall pick of the draft — seriously — finishes the preseason 17-of-47 (36.1 percent) for 159 yards (3.38 YPA), one touchdown and two interceptions. The disaster is in no way surprising considering the way Hack regressed at Penn State. The Jets have to be feeling foolish for blowing such a valuable pick. An injury may have to be invented to "redshirt" Hack on I.R. If not, the Jets will be forced to make a roster move with Geno Smith or Bryce Petty.

 
 
 
Sep 1 - 10:11 PM
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Christian Hackenberg said he is "more comfortable" heading into his second season.
"Without a doubt, I think there’s a different level of confidence," Hackenberg said. "More comfortable in the situation, more comfortable walking in the building, more comfortable with the guys in the locker room, in the huddle." Hackenberg added he is not focusing on the competition for the starting job but rather the things he "can control." Josh McCown looks like the favorite to start right now, but the safe money is on Hackenberg seeing the field at some point in 2017.

 
 
Source: New York Post 
May 16 - 9:11 AM
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ESPN's Rich Cimini spoke to a scout who was "taken aback" by how many "off-target" passes Christian Hackenberg threw in pregame warmups last season.
That's right. Hackenberg, the 51st overall selection in the 2016 draft, couldn't even throw an accurate pass in warmups last year. Hackenberg didn't see the field at all as a rookie, which was rather astounding given the miserable play of Ryan Fitzpatrick and Bryce Petty. The Jets are having an open competition at quarterback this summer but Hackenberg is a long shot to overtake Josh McCown and Petty for the starting job. New York's decision to draft Hackenberg in the second round was one of the worst picks in recent memory.

 
 
Source: ESPN.com 
May 21 - 8:58 AM
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This situation is such a mess, like the Jets. We just put our other second-round pick by the current front office on IR waivers.

 
I had high hopes for Todd Bowles, he will likely end up taking the fall while this front office guts what little talent is left there and gets younger. Then once there is some young talent they'll bring in someone new, and someone will get one heck of a defensive coordinator. 

I know some people don't like the "injury prone" label, but I think it's applicable to devin smith. 

 
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