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Official CJ Spiller (2 Viewers)

BoltBacker said:
In most cases I think people over react to early depth charts but in this case I think a lot of people are under reacting to this news.

I am pretty heavily invested in Spiller mostly because I was all in at pick ~40+ but he's now being drafted at pick #33(RB#16) and that's pretty rare air for a RB that isn't a starter. One of the reasons I felt pretty good about taking Spiller is I have no confidence in Ingram, who has averaged 146carries/year over his career and just signed a new contract, and I felt at some point Spiller might get the shot to start. As we have seen Spillers best is better than Ingrams best so if he ever got the starting job he might never give it up.

This news has me thinking NO only views Spiller as the passing down back which is still a big role to be sure, but if he's not even the true backup to Ingram then how different is Spiller at pick #33 from Woodhead at pick #96 for instance? Both should catch 60-80 balls and aren't in line to start unless multiple guys went down because they are locked into purely a pass catching back.

We need to back off the Sproles comparison too. Sproles was better than a top 20 back exactly once in his career, and even that year he only had 87 rushing attempts and the only reason he finished that high is he averaged 7yrd/carry. If I'm drafting Spiller as the #16 RB off the board and he finishes a Sproles like top-30 RB finish I feel like I got burned by the pick. Give me Woodhead/Helu at their ADP instead.
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To say Sproles was better than top 20 only once is fairly misleading. He was only on the Saints for 3 years. He was top 10 in 0ppr once with only 87 rushes and he was on a similar pace the next year, although it was derailed by injury. Yet, in only 13 games he finished RB22 in 0ppr with only 48 rushes @ 5.1 ypc. Currently, Spiller is being draft as RB23 in 0ppr which still seems like a value considering those numbers I just mentioned. In PPR, where Sproles faired much better, Spiller is RB17.

In a lackluster 2013 campaign Sproles only managed 4 TDs on 124 touches in 15 games (Pierre Thomas snagged 77 rec that season) and still finished RB23 in PPR. So tell me again how overvalued Spiller is? I'd say 2013 Sproles is his floor (assumed reasonably healthy), given the lack of other receiving options out of the backfield. I know nobody wants RB23 for RB17 price, but that's a pretty good floor. I'd also say that 2011 Sproles is actually shy of Spiller's 2015 ceiling.

If the Saints are playing from behind a lot and/or Ingram once again gets injured, Spiller could easily squeak top Sproles' 2011 season. We've seen what happens when a running back plays against dime defenses and catches a ton of dump offs. When Joique Bell was a plodding no-name, he started making rosters just by catching 5 passes and rushing for like 7ypc in the 4th quarter. And Spiller is the type of guy who could take a dump off pass to the house, unlike Bell.

 
☛ Drew Brees on practice field, when asked about Spiller as the next Bush/Sproles today.... said (paraphrasing) everyone is missing the boat on just how good Ingram is at catching and protection.

 
None of us, since we're informed, shouldn't be drafting spiller unless we drafted Ingram first or we're getting spiller in the 5th or later. Any earlier is a waste of a pick.

 
eaglesfan7 said:
None of us, since we're informed, shouldn't be drafting spiller unless we drafted Ingram first or we're getting spiller in the 5th or later. Any earlier is a waste of a pick.
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Are you sure you didn't mean to say that none of us shouldn't be not avoiding drafting Spiller in the fifth or later?

 
Maybe you could move CJ before too much more comes out?

I was pretty shocked at how fast Brees discarded the Spiller option to talk Ingram in passing back role. (especially with his low ypc history)

 
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BigSteelThrill said:
Maybe you could move CJ before too much more comes out?

I was pretty shocked at how fast Brees discarded the Spiller option to talk Ingram in passing back role. (especially with his low ypc history)
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Yeah ... I'm REALLY hoping that's just loyalty talking. Spiller was a fantasy stud two seasons ago before Marrone completely destroyed any value he had by mis-using him to the point that he was rendered useless. Couple that with the injury and you have a solid reason for his drop off.

I am still on that CJ bandwagon. This news may have just bumped me back to coach but I still have a window seat!!

I think both players will have an opportunity to produce with the way NO will use them.

 
mikmak8902 said:
BigSteelThrill said:
mikmak8902 said:
BigSteelThrill said:
☛ Drew Brees on practice field, when asked about Spiller as the next Bush/Sproles today.... said (paraphrasing) everyone is missing the boat on just how good Ingram is at catching and protection.
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Hopefully "everyone" includes the coaching staff.
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:no:
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I made an investment in Spiller and I don't own Ingram. Please stop posting things that make me rethink that strategy.
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Tomorrow Brees will tweet about how hard Spiller is working and you can all pat yourselves ont he back again, your fantasy credibility back in tact.

 
BoltBacker said:
FF Ninja said:
In PPR, where Sproles faired much better, Spiller is RB17.
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Who are the 16 RB's being taken before Spiller in ppr in August?
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You don't have access to any ADP sites??

Here is the most recent FBG ppr ADP for RBs:

1 LeVeon Bell PIT/11 RB 1 3 Jamaal Charles KC/9 RB 2 4 Adrian Peterson MIN/5 RB 3 5 Eddie Lacy GB/7 RB 4 8 Marshawn Lynch SEA/9 RB 5 12 Matt Forte CHI/7 RB 6 13 C.J. Anderson DEN/7 RB 7 17 LeSean McCoy BUF/8 RB 8 19 DeMarco Murray PHI/8 RB 9 22 Jeremy Hill CIN/7 RB 10 25 Justin Forsett BAL/9 RB 11 29 Melvin Gordon SD/10 RB 12 31 Lamar Miller MIA/5 RB 13 33 Frank Gore IND/10 RB 14 35 Mark Ingram NO/11 RB 15 37 Alfred Morris WAS/8 RB 16 38 Carlos Hyde SF/10 RB 17 40 C.J. Spiller NO/11 RB 18
 
Strangely their projections don't back any of their research up, but this article has some good info in it: https://www.numberfire.com/nfl/news/5877/should-you-draft-mark-ingram-or-c-j-spiller-in-your-fantasy-football-ppr-league

First, regarding the Saints rushing attack, Spiller will move to a team that, according to Football Outsiders, graded out second in the league in overall run blocking. The Bills? 26th And the Saints re-upped on their commitment to keeping their run-blocking unit solid by trading Jimmy Graham for Pro Bowl center Max Unger.

So even if Spiller is set to cede most of the rushing work to Ingram, expect him to do more with the 100-plus rushes he does receive than he was able to do his last two seasons in Buffalo.

But there’s no guarantee that, should Spiller be as effective as he was in 2012, he will remain relegated to change of pace duties and passing down work. How effective was he in 2012? Insanely effective.

Since 2000, there have been 345 total seasons for running backs toting the rock 200 or more times. Spiller had the 14th best season of these in terms of Rushing NEP per rush.
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With Payton and Drew Brees directing 48% of running back targets through the air dedicated to the highest targeted back since 2006, and an average of 176 targets per season to all Saints running backs, Spiller should conservatively receive a minimum 84 targets via the air.

This doesn’t even account for the fact that Ingram basically has stone hands and has received no more than 29 targets in a single season.

It also doesn’t account for the fact that neither Pierre Thomas, nor Travaris Cadet, who together monopolized 64% of the team’s running back-directed targets in 2014, are both no longer with the team.

Assuming Spiller maintains his 77% career catch rate, he would reel in 65 of those targets. And this season Drew Brees will be feeding him the ball, so that catch rate could be even stronger.

It may be more realistic to predict that Spiller will accrue a percentage of targets closer to the high end of what Payton’s offense has historically afforded the lead receiving back. If Spiller garnered 57% of running back targets via the air, he’d reel in 77 receptions. And with a career average of 7.6 yards per reception in Buffalo, it’s not inconceivable to assume Spiller could reach 600 yards via the air alone.
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Kwai Chang Caine said:
He doesn't have quite the injury history of DMC but I think a lot of us are gonna get hosed again chasing that one good year...
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This was addressed by mikmak8902 on page 16:

Oh ... and I'm not sure where the "too fragile" tag is coming from. In his 5yrs in the league here are his games played:

2010 - 14 games played

2011 - 16 games played

2012 - 16 games played

2013 - 15 games played

2014 - 9 games played

So, prior to last season, he missed 3 games in 4 years. Last season, he missed 7 games with a broken collarbone. Not a knee injury or back injury or hamstring. A collarbone. I could see if the guy was repeatedly out with hamstring issues or a swollen knee but I am not concerned one bit about his durability going into the 2015 season.
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Ingram is decidedly more injury prone than Spiller.

 
Kwai Chang Caine said:
He doesn't have quite the injury history of DMC but I think a lot of us are gonna get hosed again chasing that one good year...
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I never understand the injury-prone label on this guy. Prior to last season's injury, he played in 68 out of 71 games.

You never hear it for McCoy. During that same time frame, McCoy missed 6 games. Forte ... 5 games. Arian Foster ... 14 games missed. Jamaal Charles ... 16. Forsett ... 7.

Pick any RB you want to and they all miss a game or two almost every season. Outside of last year's COLLAR BONE injury, he's been very dependable.

And that's the other thing. It was a collarbone. Not a knee, or a foot, or an ankle, or his back. It was a collarbone. What are the chances a RB that is going to get at least half of his fantasy points catching passes in the open field is going to re-injure his collarbone. I'd be more concerned about AP re-injuring his knee yet he's being drafted consistently in the top 3.

 
You guys are missing my point. It's not about injury history--it's the fact that he's underperformed expectations. He is routinely bekng drafted ahead of Ingram. I'm not sure that's smart.

I meant to convey that he brings the same feelings that drafting DMC did up until two years

ago.

 
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Kwai Chang Caine said:
You guys are missing my point. It's not about injury history--it's the fact that he's underperformed expectations. He is routinely bekng drafted ahead of Ingram. I'm not sure that's smart.

I meant to convey that he brings the same feelings that drafting DMC did up until two years

ago.
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Sorry ... I was thrown off when you said doesn't QUITE have the injury history of DMC. In truth, he doesn't NEARLY have the same injury history. But I understand your point now.

 
In regards to the "one good year", I'd rather have one good year than not nuthin good year.

:tips hat to velveeta cheese prospector guy:

 
Spiller has the injury prone label because he gets banged up every game almost. Instead of looking at games played you should be looking at game logs and carries. You'll find plenty of games where he had under 10 carries. It's not due to gameplan it's because he carries the ball 3 times, gets banged up and he heads to the sidelines. You'll notice games with 3 carries, 6 carries and so on.

 
Actually, Ingram's year was closer to spillers good year on a ppg basis. Still nothing eye popping though. And Spiller was still 3 ppg better.

Spiller's good year:

207 carries

1244 rushing yards

6 rushing TD's

43 catches

459 receiving yards

2 receiving TD's

Total Numbers = 1,699 yards, 43 catches, 8 TD's

Fantasy Points = 260.80

FPPG = 16.30

Ingram's good year

226 carries

964 rushing yards

9 rushing td's

29 receptions

145 receiving yards

0 receiving td's

Total Numbers = 993 yards, 29 catches, 9 TD's

Fantasy Points = 176

FPPG = 13.54

 
eaglesfan7 said:
Spiller has the injury prone label because he gets banged up every game almost. Instead of looking at games played you should be looking at game logs and carries. You'll find plenty of games where he had under 10 carries. It's not due to gameplan it's because he carries the ball 3 times, gets banged up and he heads to the sidelines. You'll notice games with 3 carries, 6 carries and so on.
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That is not the reason Spiller was getting 9 and 10 carries. Marrone heavily favored Fred Jackson's running style. I'm from CNY and a huge SU fan. I've seen Marrone operate for some time. He was doing the right thing in his mind. They had a young, ineffective QB, a terrible offensive line, and a very good back in Fred Jackson that could get that extra yard or two in critical situations. Jackson didn't have CJ's explosiveness but he was a more decisive runner.

CJ fits infinitely better in the Saints system. A HOF QB, one of the best lines in the league, and a wide open attack will result in plenty of opportunities for Spiller. I would be shocked if he doesn't end up with just about as many, if not more touches than Ingram this year.

 
eaglesfan7 said:
Spiller has the injury prone label because he gets banged up every game almost. Instead of looking at games played you should be looking at game logs and carries. You'll find plenty of games where he had under 10 carries. It's not due to gameplan it's because he carries the ball 3 times, gets banged up and he heads to the sidelines. You'll notice games with 3 carries, 6 carries and so on.
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mikmak8902 said:
eaglesfan7 said:
Spiller has the injury prone label because he gets banged up every game almost. Instead of looking at games played you should be looking at game logs and carries. You'll find plenty of games where he had under 10 carries. It's not due to gameplan it's because he carries the ball 3 times, gets banged up and he heads to the sidelines. You'll notice games with 3 carries, 6 carries and so on.
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That is not the reason Spiller was getting 9 and 10 carries. Marrone heavily favored Fred Jackson's running style. I'm from CNY and a huge SU fan. I've seen Marrone operate for some time. He was doing the right thing in his mind. They had a young, ineffective QB, a terrible offensive line, and a very good back in Fred Jackson that could get that extra yard or two in critical situations. Jackson didn't have CJ's explosiveness but he was a more decisive runner.
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I don't think that holds up to scrutiny.

Spiller has played in 71 of 80 possible games over his career. Here is the breakdown of his opportunities (rushes + targets not just receptions):

1-10 opps 32 times (45%)

12-14 opps 12 times (17%)

15-18 opps 12 times (17%)

19-20 opps 3 times (4%)

20+ opps 12 times (17%)

I put in multiple tiers instead of just o/u 15 because I think most of us view CJ as more effective on a limited snap count. But he has been under 10 opportunities on fully 45% of his career games played.

Now you want to say that it was a Marrone thing so here are his opportunities breakdown from 2010-2012:

He played in 46 of 48 possible games

1-10 opps 25 times (54%)

11-14 opps 5 times (11%)

15-18 opps 7 times (15%)

19-20 opps 2 times (4%)

20+ opps 7 times (15%)

That's 54% of his games, before Marrone, with 10 or fewer touches.

I think it might be unfair to count his rookie year, when if you remember he obviously had trouble adjusting to the pro game, so I broke out just 2011 & 2012.

He played in 32 of 32 possible games:

1-10 opps 14 times (44%)

11-14 opps 2 times (6%)

15-18 opps 7 times (22%)

19-20 opps 2 times (6%)

20+ opps 7 times (22%)

While marginally better we still have 44% of his games played with 10 or fewer opportunities.

I am certain that a lot of that was due to game circumstances in blowout losses, and the rare occasional blowout win (although you would expect him to see tons of passing opportunities in the blowout losses), and I am sure some of them are due to knucklehead coaches not using him enough. However I think it is fair to say that a large portion of those are due to him either being pulled due to in-game injuries and ineffectiveness due to lingering injuries that didn't prevent him from playing.

On top of that he has missed 9 career games (11%), which isn't a ton, I guess but it adds on to the issues of how much ROI have we really gotten from drafting this guy?

He may not be a McFadden where he misses large blocks of games at a time but it seems to most of us that he is banged up pretty consistently. Couple that with the inevitable games where he is underutilized for whatever reason and you have pretty much a coin flip as to whether or not he will help your team on any given week.

 
I forgot to add just the opportunities breakdown from just under Marrone:

He played in 24 of 32 possible games

1-10 opps 6 times (25%)

11-14 opps 7 times (29%)

15-18 opps (20%)

19-20 opps (5%)

20+ opps (25%)

It kind of looks like Marrone utilized him at least as much as his other coaches, but CJ had most of his career games missed under Marrone.

 
I don't think spiller will scarf up all of the Robinson/Thomas/Graham/Cadet/etc touches but he should get the vast majority of them. Robinson is the big loser here.

2014 touches

Mark Ingram 226 car - 29 rec - 255 total

Khiry Robinson 76 car - 8 rec - 84 total

Pierre Thomas 45 car - 45 rec - 90 total

Travis Cadet 10 car - 38 rec - 48 total

Jimmy Graham 0 car - 85 rec - 85 total

Graham, Robinson, Cadet, and Thomas are the target touches for Spiller.

That's a grand total of 307 touches up for grabs.

I think it's fair to say Spiller gets at least 150 of those touches before we even touch Ingram. Maybe something like this:

Khiry Robinson 25 car - 8 rec - 84 total

Watson/Hill/other TE's 0 car - 73 rec - 85 total

Baker/Hightower 6 car - 15 rec - 15 total

CJ Spiller 100 car - 80 rec - 180 total

Now, I think it's inevitable that Spiller steals some carries from Ingram. I think 40 combined carries/rec (35/5) is a conservative estimate.

That would put Spiller at 220 touches on the season. It's certainly possible that the TE's don't grab 73 receptions this season and Spiller grabs some more of those touches. I also don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that spiller ends up being a 100 catch back this year. That will be the key. How many of those TE receptions go to the WR's as apposed to CJ. Looking at their collection of WR's, my money is on Spiller.

 
mikmak8902 said:
I don't think spiller will scarf up all of the Robinson/Thomas/Graham/Cadet/etc touches but he should get the vast majority of them. Robinson is the big loser here.

2014 touches

Mark Ingram 226 car - 29 rec - 255 total

Khiry Robinson 76 car - 8 rec - 84 total

Pierre Thomas 45 car - 45 rec - 90 total

Travis Cadet 10 car - 38 rec - 48 total

Jimmy Graham 0 car - 85 rec - 85 total

Graham, Robinson, Cadet, and Thomas are the target touches for Spiller.

That's a grand total of 307 touches up for grabs.

I think it's fair to say Spiller gets at least 150 of those touches before we even touch Ingram. Maybe something like this:

Khiry Robinson 25 car - 8 rec - 84 total

Watson/Hill/other TE's 0 car - 73 rec - 85 total

Baker/Hightower 6 car - 15 rec - 15 total

CJ Spiller 100 car - 80 rec - 180 total

Now, I think it's inevitable that Spiller steals some carries from Ingram. I think 40 combined carries/rec (35/5) is a conservative estimate.

That would put Spiller at 220 touches on the season. It's certainly possible that the TE's don't grab 73 receptions this season and Spiller grabs some more of those touches. I also don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that spiller ends up being a 100 catch back this year. That will be the key. How many of those TE receptions go to the WR's as apposed to CJ. Looking at their collection of WR's, my money is on Spiller.
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I pretty much agree with all of that. Not sure about 220 touches but I can see 170 pretty easily. He certainly has the best chance of any RB in the league to break 80 receptions (a very rare feat outside of a Sean Payton offense) and that 100 recs, while extremely rare for a RB, is a possibility.

 
Chaka said:
eaglesfan7 said:
Spiller has the injury prone label because he gets banged up every game almost. Instead of looking at games played you should be looking at game logs and carries. You'll find plenty of games where he had under 10 carries. It's not due to gameplan it's because he carries the ball 3 times, gets banged up and he heads to the sidelines. You'll notice games with 3 carries, 6 carries and so on.
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mikmak8902 said:
eaglesfan7 said:
Spiller has the injury prone label because he gets banged up every game almost. Instead of looking at games played you should be looking at game logs and carries. You'll find plenty of games where he had under 10 carries. It's not due to gameplan it's because he carries the ball 3 times, gets banged up and he heads to the sidelines. You'll notice games with 3 carries, 6 carries and so on.
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That is not the reason Spiller was getting 9 and 10 carries. Marrone heavily favored Fred Jackson's running style. I'm from CNY and a huge SU fan. I've seen Marrone operate for some time. He was doing the right thing in his mind. They had a young, ineffective QB, a terrible offensive line, and a very good back in Fred Jackson that could get that extra yard or two in critical situations. Jackson didn't have CJ's explosiveness but he was a more decisive runner.
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I don't think that holds up to scrutiny.

Spiller has played in 71 of 80 possible games over his career. Here is the breakdown of his opportunities (rushes + targets not just receptions):

1-10 opps 32 times (45%)

12-14 opps 12 times (17%)

15-18 opps 12 times (17%)

19-20 opps 3 times (4%)

20+ opps 12 times (17%)

I put in multiple tiers instead of just o/u 15 because I think most of us view CJ as more effective on a limited snap count. But he has been under 10 opportunities on fully 45% of his career games played.

Now you want to say that it was a Marrone thing so here are his opportunities breakdown from 2010-2012:

He played in 46 of 48 possible games

1-10 opps 25 times (54%)

11-14 opps 5 times (11%)

15-18 opps 7 times (15%)

19-20 opps 2 times (4%)

20+ opps 7 times (15%)

That's 54% of his games, before Marrone, with 10 or fewer touches.

I think it might be unfair to count his rookie year, when if you remember he obviously had trouble adjusting to the pro game, so I broke out just 2011 & 2012.

He played in 32 of 32 possible games:

1-10 opps 14 times (44%)

11-14 opps 2 times (6%)

15-18 opps 7 times (22%)

19-20 opps 2 times (6%)

20+ opps 7 times (22%)

While marginally better we still have 44% of his games played with 10 or fewer opportunities.

I am certain that a lot of that was due to game circumstances in blowout losses, and the rare occasional blowout win (although you would expect him to see tons of passing opportunities in the blowout losses), and I am sure some of them are due to knucklehead coaches not using him enough. However I think it is fair to say that a large portion of those are due to him either being pulled due to in-game injuries and ineffectiveness due to lingering injuries that didn't prevent him from playing.

On top of that he has missed 9 career games (11%), which isn't a ton, I guess but it adds on to the issues of how much ROI have we really gotten from drafting this guy?

He may not be a McFadden where he misses large blocks of games at a time but it seems to most of us that he is banged up pretty consistently. Couple that with the inevitable games where he is underutilized for whatever reason and you have pretty much a coin flip as to whether or not he will help your team on any given week.
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This is a great post! Very well thought out.

I'm curious what your calculations show for his breakout season. I agree with you on the rookie season as that isn't a very good comparison year. He improved his numbers in his 2nd year (just like every season in every statistical category prior to marrone) but was not the weapon he was in 2012. I wouldn't say his 2nd year was as bad a comparison year as 2010 but it was certainly still a developmental year.

Each of the 3 years leading up to Marrone, EVERY SINGLE ONE of his following stats improved:

Carries

Rushing Yards

100+ Yard Rushing Games

Yards per Carry

Rushing TD's

Receptions

Receiving Yards

Yards Per Reception

Receiving TD's

EVERY SINGLE ONE of those stats decreased each and every year under Marrone with the exception of a slight uptick in YPR in 2014.

Alot of that is severe misuse of a player. And your analysis shows that he seems to have always had limited opportunity that could be attributed to minor injuries although, again, I'm curious what the numbers are for 2012. I think prior to his breakout year he was being held out of situations because he was still developing most likely just as much as he was due to injuries.

Getting dinged up regularly could have also factored into Marrone constantly favoring Fred Jackson in key situations during a game. I don't think he had alot of patience for guys limping off the field. He may have been able to go right back in but Marrone was choosing to stay with Jackson for extended periods of time.

Still, I think it's glaringly apparent that Marrone had a negative impact on Spiller and Sean Payton could be this guy's fantasy savior.

 
@AdamSchefter: Saints' CJ Spiller underwent arthroscopic knee surgery Friday in Pensacola, Fla, but is expected back for regular-season opener, per source.

 
Spiller absolutely was dinged up a ton. He constantly had little nagging injuries that reduced his workload. He gets credit for being tough and not missing games because of it, but he definitely pulled himself from games at times due to small injuries or being tired.

 
msudaisy26 said:
Raiderfan32904 said:
Kirby Robinson should be on waiver wires, worth a speculative add methinks.
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Is Khiry a good pass catching back? I would think Ingram would just get a bump in carries, and Cooks, Colston and the tight ends to get more targets.
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Some (in the Ingram and Khiry threads) have suggested Robinson may be a better receiver than we realize but I have not heard that from any reputable sources. OTOH the New Orleans coaching staff (or was it Brees) said recently not to sleep on Ingram's receiving ability. I tend to think this bumps Ingram slightly, at least in the early season.

 
FF Ninja said:
BoltBacker said:
FF Ninja said:
In PPR, where Sproles faired much better, Spiller is RB17.
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Who are the 16 RB's being taken before Spiller in ppr in August?
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You don't have access to any ADP sites??

Here is the most recent FBG ppr ADP for RBs:

1 LeVeon Bell PIT/11 RB 1 3 Jamaal Charles KC/9 RB 2 4 Adrian Peterson MIN/5 RB 3 5 Eddie Lacy GB/7 RB 4 8 Marshawn Lynch SEA/9 RB 5 12 Matt Forte CHI/7 RB 6 13 C.J. Anderson DEN/7 RB 7 17 LeSean McCoy BUF/8 RB 8 19 DeMarco Murray PHI/8 RB 9 22 Jeremy Hill CIN/7 RB 10 25 Justin Forsett BAL/9 RB 11 29 Melvin Gordon SD/10 RB 12 31 Lamar Miller MIA/5 RB 13 33 Frank Gore IND/10 RB 14 35 Mark Ingram NO/11 RB 15 37 Alfred Morris WAS/8 RB 16 38 Carlos Hyde SF/10 RB 17 40 C.J. Spiller NO/11 RB 18
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Yes.

According to the data I trust Spiller is being drafted at pick#33.76 and Morris is being drafted at pick#37.64 for PPR in paid leagues in August. That's why I asked. To explain the discrepancy.

 
Raiderfan32904 said:
Kirby Robinson should be on waiver wires, worth a speculative add methinks.
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I've wanted to draft this guy as insurance, but until P.Thomas actually signs some place it makes you wonder if NO comes to their senses and just gives this guy a million dollars to be the Brees security blanket if Spiller gets dinged up (more?).

 
FF Ninja said:
I'd also say that 2011 Sproles is actually shy of Spiller's 2015 ceiling.
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Well 2011 was the pinnacle(anomaly?) of Sproles career. He averaged 6.9yards/carry. What do you think Spiller's 2015 ceiling is? I'm just trying to gauge here what you are thinking is it 8yards/carry, 9yards/carry? I like Spiller and his upside but for a guy that averaged 3.8yards/carry last year even JUST assuming his yards/carry DOUBLES is quite a jump.

 
Word just came out in the last 45 minutes that he had knee surgery yesterday.

I was never planning on drafting the guy anyway (unless as a direct Ingram handcuff) but this just makes my thoughts even more just.

Yet another reason to steer clear of this guy.

TZM

 
TZMarkie said:
Word just came out in the last 45 minutes that he had knee surgery yesterday.

I was never planning on drafting the guy anyway (unless as a direct Ingram handcuff) but this just makes my thoughts even more just.

Yet another reason to steer clear of this guy.

TZM
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Where did you hear that?

 
Might have been right here on FBG's news feed. Or through their subscriber email.

From the news:

Saints | C.J. Spiller had knee surgery Sat Aug 15, 04:15 PM

New Orleans Saints RB C.J. Spiller (knee) underwent arthroscopic knee surgery Friday, Aug. 14, in Pensacola, FLA. Spiller is expected to be ready for the regular-season opener, according to a source.

Footballguys view: Spiller should be back for Week 1 if he has no problems in his recovery, but "no problems in recovery" is not a common phrase in Spiller's career. He has to move down at least a round or two on your board and we understand if that makes you reluctant to take him even at a value ADP. His upside is high, but only if he's 100% for a good part of the season.
 
humpback said:
TZMarkie said:
Word just came out in the last 45 minutes that he had knee surgery yesterday.

I was never planning on drafting the guy anyway (unless as a direct Ingram handcuff) but this just makes my thoughts even more just.

Yet another reason to steer clear of this guy.

TZM
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Where did you hear that?
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ESPN.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/13444621/new-orleans-saints-running-back-cj-spiller-knee-surgery

It appears to be "only a cleanup" but he just found himself in my "do not draft" list. (which is essentially where he was anyway)

TZM

 
I guess I should have used this :sarcasm: . The news was posted in this thread more than 5 hours before you posted "Word just came out in the last 45 minutes that he had knee surgery yesterday."

 
humpback said:
I guess I should have used this :sarcasm: . The news was posted in this thread more than 5 hours before you posted "Word just came out in the last 45 minutes that he had knee surgery yesterday."
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No worries, I hadn't even bothered to read up a few posts.

Guess that comes with the territory when on heavy pain medication and cold medicine to boot. :D

I was wondering why anyone hadn't posted about it yet.

Regardless, I won't be drafting the guy. LOL.

TZM

 
Rotoworld:

Coach Sean Payton confirmed ESPN's Adam Schefter's report that C.J. Spiller (knee) should be ready for Week 1 against the Cardinals.

Spiller underwent a knee scope recently and hasn't practiced the past 7-10 days. We're not going to see him during the preseason, but Spiller has been in the Saints' running-back room digesting the playbook and taking mental reps. It's really not a big concern for 28-year-old Spiller as long as he's back for the opener.

Source: Britt McHenry on Twitter
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Fantasypros says: Spiller has good upside this season. He may be a little unproductive the first week or so but look for him to take flight under Payton's play-calling. Unless there is negative news he should be drafted early. His current ADP suggests 2nd round in PPR formats, 3rd round for standard. We believe that's a pretty fair assessment.

 
3RD ROUND ?!

Wow, that amazes me. The DD has him going anywhere from around 5th - 6th. He's fallen to at least the 5th in just about all mocks I've done. Was hoping the surgery may have pushed him down a little further still. If you get 1RB beast early, another solid one around 4th-5th, then Spiller begins to become a lot more attractive a punt at around the 6th/7th.

 
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