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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (8 Viewers)

Is there any consensus about how much protection you have, and for how long, after a prior infection? It's all over the map, depending on what you read.
I don't think so. I haven't been following this sort of thing for quite a while, but I imagine this is a dynamic process that needs to reach an equilibrium of some sort. Up until now, we've been dealing with a bunch of evolving variants, and we rolled out vaccines, and people have developed quite a lot of natural immunity. My guess is that everything about this question is different today than what it was back in 2020.

No idea if there's any real science behind this, but I've been working under the assumption that our experience with SARS-CoV-2 will eventually be similar to that of other coronaviruses. We get infected with those over and over again, and immunity only lasts a couple of months or so. Intuitively I guess I'd expect something kind of similar from this one.
I had a fairly mild case the first week of April. I asked the question purely for selfish reasons. Anecdotally, it seems like there are a few more cases in my area than there were a month ago. I have no idea if this is actually occuring, or if I just happen to be hearing more about it.
 
Is there any consensus about how much protection you have, and for how long, after a prior infection? It's all over the map, depending on what you read.
I think generally speaking around 6 months. Of course, every person is different and there are exceptions.
 
Yeah, I have to think it's a big range that varies from individual to individual. My mom got omicron during the big wave, presumably from my daughters who had it a few days before her, and then 2 months later was in close contact on a trip with two of her friends. Her friends both got covid and she dodged it, presumably based on her recent infection.

There are all sorts of weird anecdotes, though. My one niece got it and somehow gave it to none of her family, and then 6 weeks later everybody but her got it :shrug:
 
Came up positive yesterday. Was in Savannah on vacation with the family and had planned yesterday to stop in Richmond and check out some sights. Instead, my wife, the two kids, and I spent 13 hours in N95 masks and the windows cracked in the car to make it home last night. Sore throat and some serious green phlegm and some fever / chills thus far. Got an Rx for paxlovid ( good thing I gained 10 pounds since 2020 as I qualified for the paxlovid due to BMI being a little over 25. Had a splitting headache yesterday morning which is what caused me to pick up an OTC test. Headache is managed with meds though.
 
Ed Dowd blowing the doors off the Cause Unknown pandemic that has been filtering through UK (and likely US) health statistics. Look at the PIP data compared to baseline years 2016-19!


Either Long Covid or Long Vaxxes or both have absolutely wreaked havoc on peoples' wellness. We can and should deliberate cause, but first we need to finally acknowledge that something profound and terrifying is unfolding within current health stats - something that is still being utterly ignored by governments and mainstream media. But with each passing month of stats continuing acceleration, the truth can only be hidden for so long.


Dowd is a Wall Street guy. I said long ago that if there actually is a major issue with the Covid vaxxes to anywhere near the degrees proclaimed by the original conspiracy theorist anti-MRNA tech crowd, the death and disability stats would ultimately be so overwhelming that either Wall Street analytics or the insurance industry would uncover them, no matter how much govts and/or pharma minions try to keep them hidden. Truth bombs are in the air, folks. 💣
 
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"Sample of charts that can be generated from the report: Haematological (Blood Disorders) System is up 522% annually with an annual Z score of 61…seems bad to me ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

"Cardiovascular Failure: up 513% on a monthly basis with a monthly z score of about 17. Seems like a disaster.

"This just baffles us…Autistic spectrum disorders up 255% across all ages on a monthly basis from trend with a z score of 14.

"The above are just a small sample of the data available. Folks it’s bad and the signals here confirm the anecdotal stories from doctors in their own practices and what you are seeing in your circles ... Hope this report is helpful to doctors and health authorities ... You know what I think is the cause but let’s play devils advocate…if not what I think what is going on & why the silence from health authorities? They need to explain this or it’s a cover-up ... And of course the MSM won’t touch this because they are already accessories to this cover up."
 
For those of you who aren't stats nerds, when Dowd refers to z-scores, he's refering to how many standard deviations a particular observed number is from the average. The higher the z-score, the more anomolous a particular reading. Paraphrasing, a z-score of 3 is considered rare event. A z-score of 5-6 is considered an ultra-rare black-swan event. The z-scores being recorded here are well off the charts and indicative of a monster change in the health and wellness outcomes of the people underlying this UK database!!

Long Covid? Maybe. I still concede the possibility.

MRNA vaxxes? Also maybe. (Finally) now time to concede that possibility? Or nah, once again, because it's so much easier (for now) not to?
 

"The findings help unmask the weak spots of coronaviruses and provide templates for designing vaccines and drugs that work against COVID-19 variants and future coronavirus threats."

I see what they did there.

No, this is nice. We might have a real workable vaccine in the next couple of years even after this all gets shoved under the rug.
 
Saw this yesterday or the day before. It's pretty amazing what the body/immune system can do. Expose it to the proteins enough and it's GOING to figure out what to do. It's not a matter of "if" but "when". This is why all the noise around vaccines is such nonsense. People have convinced themselves that a single protein from a complicated virus is more dangerous than the virus itself. While it's been true that vaccines have been dangerous in the past, it's always been because of the different agents, chemicals and fillers used in those vaccines, not because of the proteins. Now we have mRNA vaccines that are void of the dangerous agents, chemicals and fillers making it much easier to focus on individual immune systems and how they react to a specific protein.
 
I just remember how life was supposed to 'never be the same'. Now, life is exactly the same with no difference and COVID seemingly has just gone away.
If you worked in healthcare, you’d feel differently. Covid definitely exposed our broken system.
Is the system broken or was it overwhelmed?

I think the real lesson is how fragile our modern civilization is. Imagine if COVID has a higher mortality rate than being marginally higher than the common cold. Preppers don't look so silly anymore.
 
I think the real lesson is how fragile our modern civilization is. Imagine if COVID has a higher mortality rate than being marginally higher than the common cold. Preppers don't look so silly anymore.
Agreed. In hindsight, covid wasn't all that bad. Healthy people under 40 or so -- most workers -- never actually had anything to fear from this virus. And supply chains still completely melted down.

Of course, some of that had to do with government policies like shelter-in-place orders, so this was a bit of a choice variable. But if covid had been more deadly or if it had affected working-age adults or especially young people, I think we would have had a lot of folks refusing to report to work even if governments were imploring everyone to soldier on. That would have been a disaster well beyond anything that I would have seen coming in March 2020.
 
I just remember how life was supposed to 'never be the same'. Now, life is exactly the same with no difference and COVID seemingly has just gone away.
If you worked in healthcare, you’d feel differently. Covid definitely exposed our broken system.
Is the system broken or was it overwhelmed?

I think the real lesson is how fragile our modern civilization is. Imagine if COVID has a higher mortality rate than being marginally higher than the common cold. Preppers don't look so silly anymore.
It's both in my view. Incredibly flawed and became overwhelmed. I don't think I'd use "fragile" to describe us either. We are WAY more selfish than is good for us, but we know that. And COVID showed us why that flaw can be a problem.
 
Agreed. In hindsight, covid wasn't all that bad.
Is this a joke?

7 million people died in 3 years from it and "it wasn't all that bad?"

I'm glad you didn't fit the demographic that needed to be worried, but for those that it did and for all those that lost loved ones to this (i. e. most people), this post is incredibly tone deaf.
No kidding. My neighbor the nurse who worked on the Covid unit sure thought it was bad, especially when I looked in her eyes and could see the exhaustion, fear, and despair every day.
 
Agreed. In hindsight, covid wasn't all that bad.
Is this a joke?

7 million people died in 3 years from it and "it wasn't all that bad?"

I'm glad you didn't fit the demographic that needed to be worried, but for those that it did and for all those that lost loved ones to this (i. e. most people), this post is incredibly tone deaf.
Here is my question... how many of those deaths were perfectly healthy people that got COVID and died versus people with an underlining issue that them getting the flu would have had a similar impact on? Old people, immune compromised individuals, some medical issue, etc. Plus, how many of those deaths were things like "He got decapitated in a car accident but tested positive for COVID.... so, the death certificate says COVID." ? I don't know the answer to those questions but if you just throw out a number like that, it doesn't mean a whole lot unless you know what those numbers consist of. I don't have a lot of confidence in the numbers to be honest.

6,881,955 deaths reported from start to today.

In the US the mortality rate is 1.8%

Looking at data, until you get to around the age of 60, the flu is actually more deadly and once you are over that age, COVID is only slightly deadlier for those people than the flu is. Under 30, you are MUCH more likely to die because you got flu than if you got COVID. Kids basically have zero mortality rate with COVID but signifcant with the flu.

I am not sure it is tone death. It is within perspective. COVID sucks. People died. But a lot of things suck. And a lot of people die from a lot of things. COVID, via looking at the data, "wasn't all that bad." that doesn't mean the deaths that did occur are diminished but comparatively, COVID is similar to the flu. People tend to lose their minds on discussion about COVID though because it ended up being so politicized and now positions people had or have threaten how they view things like society and politics rather than looking at the medical truths.
 
Agreed. In hindsight, covid wasn't all that bad.
Is this a joke?

7 million people died in 3 years from it and "it wasn't all that bad?"

I'm glad you didn't fit the demographic that needed to be worried, but for those that it did and for all those that lost loved ones to this (i. e. most people), this post is incredibly tone deaf.
Haven't you heard? It's basically just a cold, dude.
 
Haven't you heard? It's basically just a cold, dude.

No, and that's a wild mischaracterization of saying that it wasn't "all that bad." Comparatively to other things that could have spread, it wound up being not all that bad, and I don't think that's debatable. If it were waterborne or was transmitted by touch it would have been almost infinitely worse.

And we know younger people who are in shape didn't die from COVID. Nor did middle-age people without underlying causes.

The tone of this thread now sucks all around. "Is this a joke?" No, it's not a joke and your condescending little hissy fit sucks. You've all earned this thread, once great, the honor of now being one of the worst on the board. From the anti-vaxxers to the scolds. Congrats.
 
This was the equivalent of telling an Afghanistan veteran to STFU about PTSD. A well-considered withdrawal is in order here.

No, it wasn't, and you're bloviating. It's nothing like telling a veteran to shut-up about PTSD. It's not even close.
 
This was the equivalent of telling an Afghanistan veteran to STFU about PTSD. A well-considered withdrawal is in order here.

No, it wasn't, and you're bloviating. It's nothing like telling a veteran to shut-up about PTSD. It's not even close.


Fine. People who worked up close in the ERs treating COVID patients are entitled to their feelings. And to PTSD, for that matter. Telling one of those people “The adults are talking” is out of line and completely unnecessary.
 
Agreed. In hindsight, covid wasn't all that bad.
Is this a joke?

7 million people died in 3 years from it and "it wasn't all that bad?"

I'm glad you didn't fit the demographic that needed to be worried, but for those that it did and for all those that lost loved ones to this (i. e. most people), this post is incredibly tone deaf.
Haven't you heard? It's basically just a cold, dude.
What was the IFR for adults under 40 with no comorbidities?
 
Agreed. In hindsight, covid wasn't all that bad.
Is this a joke?

7 million people died in 3 years from it and "it wasn't all that bad?"

I'm glad you didn't fit the demographic that needed to be worried, but for those that it did and for all those that lost loved ones to this (i. e. most people), this post is incredibly tone deaf.
No kidding. My neighbor the nurse who worked on the Covid unit sure thought it was bad, especially when I looked in her eyes and could see the exhaustion, fear, and despair every day.
What was the IFR for adults under 40 with no comorbidities?
 
Haven't you heard? It's basically just a cold, dude.

No, and that's a wild mischaracterization of saying that it wasn't "all that bad." Comparatively to other things that could have spread, it wound up being not all that bad, and I don't think that's debatable. If it were waterborne or was transmitted by touch it would have been almost infinitely worse.

And we know younger people who are in shape didn't die from COVID. Nor did middle-age people without underlying causes.

The tone of this thread now sucks all around. "Is this a joke?" No, it's not a joke and your condescending little hissy fit sucks. You've all earned this thread, once great, the honor of now being one of the worst on the board. From the anti-vaxxers to the scolds. Congrats.
Go back and read what he selectively quoted and agreed with, and spare us all your sanctimonious diatribe.
 
This is sort of how I feel in transgender arguments when this sort of stuff starts happening. The people on the "front lines" get all hysterical about a pro or con side of the issue and it's impossible to have reasoned debate with either side or position lest one give just the tiniest of inches to the enemy. In recent pages, that's meant that any threat of myocarditis shouldn't be discussed because it will dissuade people from getting the vaccine even though it's perfectly logical that the vaccine causes myocarditis and that one position doesn't make getting the vaccine mutually exclusive. It just is.

Truth is truth and facts are facts. We would all do better to stick to that rather than impassioned pleas for normative reasons.
 
Go back and read what he selectively quoted and agreed with, and spare us all your sanctimonious diatribe.

First thing and right away, son, your tone is off to me. I'm not doing anything at your leisure. The SP is one thing. You bring that attitude over here and watch what happens.

Secondly, what is the IFR for adults under 40 with no comorbidities?
 
Haven't you heard? It's basically just a cold, dude.

No, and that's a wild mischaracterization of saying that it wasn't "all that bad." Comparatively to other things that could have spread, it wound up being not all that bad, and I don't think that's debatable. If it were waterborne or was transmitted by touch it would have been almost infinitely worse.

And we know younger people who are in shape didn't die from COVID. Nor did middle-age people without underlying causes.

The tone of this thread now sucks all around. "Is this a joke?" No, it's not a joke and your condescending little hissy fit sucks. You've all earned this thread, once great, the honor of now being one of the worst on the board. From the anti-vaxxers to the scolds. Congrats.
Go back and read what he selectively quoted and agreed with, and spare us all your sanctimonious diatribe.
No, really. I am a big dummy and I need for one of you guys to show me how deadly COVID was for working age adults who were healthy otherwise. That's who I was specifically posting about. Prove me wrong.
 
Agreed. In hindsight, covid wasn't all that bad.
Is this a joke?

7 million people died in 3 years from it and "it wasn't all that bad?"

I'm glad you didn't fit the demographic that needed to be worried, but for those that it did and for all those that lost loved ones to this (i. e. most people), this post is incredibly tone deaf.
Haven't you heard? It's basically just a cold, dude.
What was the IFR for adults under 40 with no comorbidities?
Much higher than the common cold, and there are far more people who don't fit into that cohort.
 
Agreed. In hindsight, covid wasn't all that bad.
Is this a joke?

7 million people died in 3 years from it and "it wasn't all that bad?"

I'm glad you didn't fit the demographic that needed to be worried, but for those that it did and for all those that lost loved ones to this (i. e. most people), this post is incredibly tone deaf.
No kidding. My neighbor the nurse who worked on the Covid unit sure thought it was bad, especially when I looked in her eyes and could see the exhaustion, fear, and despair every day.
What was the IFR for adults under 40 with no comorbidities?
Don't know and don't care.

Covid was bad for a lot of reasons. I'm gonna stop there because no matter what I say someone here will try and create an argument around it. I've always found you a thoughtful poster like many others here but when I see something I don't like or disagree with I'll call you on it.

I just call 'em like I see 'em.
 
The idea that we could just allow the "healthy folks under 40" to get (and most importantly spread the virus) without having a calamity to those that didn't fall into that group is really something. Maybe you're talking about the post vaccine and booster era, which started like 1.5 years ago.
 
I don't see what's so bad about them. In one, I question the veracity and temperament of people who try and guide discussions normatively rather than looking at facts and presenting them in a way that is supported by evidence.

The second one is a way to tell humpback he can go you-know-what.
 
I don't see what's so bad about them. In one, I question the veracity and temperament of people who try and guide discussions normatively rather than looking at facts and presenting them in support or non-support of evidence.

The second one is a way to tell humpback he can go you-know-what.
On one hand you advocate for reasoned discourse rooted in facts. On the other, you call someone "son".
 
What's weird is that I was for mask mandates, very pro-vaccine, advocated for school closures and public shutdowns, and somehow wind up on the side of those that didn't in this thread precisely because

a) the facts as we now know them are different than what we thought
b) the normative urging by people in this thread vis a vis the facts at hand is groupthink at worst and outright deceit at best
 
A million budding public health officials.

I'd have considered that an epithet in my younger years, but it seems we have people actively aspirant to that role.
 
what facts are different now than in 2020

The estimation of the damage it would cause, for one. Two, that we're finding out the risk to children and young healthy adults is greatly different than what we were led to believe. There was absolutely no reason to shut down K-6 schools or move to remote learning in middle schools and the like. Just wasn't a great decision.

I don't blame anybody for their mistakes in that regard -- I came to the exact same conclusions and was wrong. And going on what we knew, I still don't see how you don't make the calls that were made. But to not re-examine one's priors and hold firm with lines laden with concrete is to do a disservice to what actually happened.
 
the facts as we now know them are different than what we thought
Can you flesh this out? Other than the transmission vector being primarily airborne and not on surfaces, what facts are different now than in 2020?
This wasn't directed toward me me, but I'll answer anyway. Omicron is what is different. Much more contagious, but much less deadly than Alpha or Delta. I feel like Omicron was, in a lot of ways, a lucky break.
 

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