*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (8 Viewers)

[The Z Machine]

what facts are different now than in 2020

The estimation of the damage it would cause, for one. Two, that we're finding out about the risk to children and young healthy adults is greatly different than what we were led to believe. There was absolutely no reason to shut down K-6 schools.

Which estimations of damage? The total deaths caused by the virus? If done before the effects of the vaccine entered the population, I can see that. It's very likely most models overestimated the number of deaths when the mortality rates were still very fuzzy, but I don't think they were that far off.

A paper published in The Lancet in 2022 found, "Although reported COVID-19 deaths between Jan 1, 2020, and Dec 31, 2021, totalled 5·94 million worldwide, we estimate that 18·2 million (95% uncertainty interval 17·1–19·6) people died worldwide because of the COVID-19 pandemic (as measured by excess mortality) over that period." That's a pretty big number worldwide. Link to paper: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)02796-3/fulltext

There are probably people that have made models of with and without K-6 school closures. Do you have any links to share?

 

[The Z Machine]

the facts as we now know them are different than what we thought

Can you flesh this out? Other than the transmission vector being primarily airborne and not on surfaces, what facts are different now than in 2020?

This wasn't directed toward me me, but I'll answer anyway. Omicron is what is different. Much more contagious, but much less deadly than Alpha or Delta. I feel like Omicron was, in a lot of ways, a lucky break.

I tend to agree that Omicron was a lucky mutation for us. But there was no way to know that the next big varient after Delta wasn't going to be more infectious AND more deadly.

 

[FatMax]

the facts as we now know them are different than what we thought

Can you flesh this out? Other than the transmission vector being primarily airborne and not on surfaces, what facts are different now than in 2020?

This wasn't directed toward me me, but I'll answer anyway. Omicron is what is different. Much more contagious, but much less deadly than Alpha or Delta. I feel like Omicron was, in a lot of ways, a lucky break.

I tend to agree that Omicron was a lucky mutation for us. But there was no way to know that the next big varient after Delta wasn't going to be more infectious AND more deadly.

I don't think anyone would disagree with that. But we are here now, and we have Omicron. That in itself, is huge in regard to public health and death risk. I know several people who died with Alpha and Delta, and none with Omicron. Anecdotal, for sure, but I think many others might say the same.

 

[The Z Machine]

Also, Omicron came after the majority of the population was vaccinated as I recall.

 

[IvanKaramazov]

A whole lot of people would rather be irrationally angry than look at the actual data.

 

[The Z Machine]

But to not re-examine one's priors and hold firm with lines laden with concrete is to do a disservice to what actually happened.

Which priors need reexamination? Rejection of expertise? Assumption that the news media wouldn't collude with the state?

 

[humpback]

I gave you an answer.

You didn't just move the goalposts, you tore them down and carried them back to your frat house.

You jumped into this conversation, guns blazing, without even reading. If you would have followed my advice you would have seen that the post Ivan quoted and agreed with said "I think the real lesson is how fragile our modern civilization is. Imagine if COVID has a higher mortality rate than being marginally higher than the common cold. Preppers don't look so silly anymore."

Those are the goalposts for my comment, which you used to launch your rampage against everything that you have since personified. Congrats?

 

[Chadstroma]

What's weird is that I was for mask mandates, very pro-vaccine, advocated for school closures and public shutdowns, and somehow wind up on the side of those that didn't in this thread precisely because

a) the facts as we now know them are different than what we thought
b) the normative urging by people in this thread vis a vis the facts at hand is groupthink at worst and outright deceit at best

The key here is to understand that when people talk about how bad COVID was.... vaccines.... etc, it isn't actually talking about those things. It is talking about the politics behind it. So many people internalized their positions based on politics.

I wore my mask and thought it was silly for people having fits about it. Every argument I heard against masks made no sense to me. Small price to pay to help, even if just a little bit, lessen the spread. I long thought it was silly that we had a society here in the West that freaked out about wearing masks in public while many Asian countries it was rather normal. I think that now people are more accepting of wearing masks in public if it makes sense (they aren't feeling well or they or someone they are close to need to be extra careful from getting ANY airborne illness). But mention masks and people lose their minds (both sides) because of politics.

I got the vaccine. My view of it was that we still really didn't know much at that time and for me it was important to do whatever I could in order to protect my children. The risk of the vaccine versus doing whatever I could to protect my kids meant it was an easy decision for me. I really did not plan on getting any boosts but then when my wife was diagnosed with cancer, I went and got a boost. Same thinking. Whatever I can do to help protect my wife is well worth the risk in my view. My kids have not taken the vaccine. But bring up the vaccine and people lost their minds (both sides) because of politics.

Early on, shutting things down made sense. Again, we didn't know. We didn't know what we didn't know. We didn't know that for kids it was generally a mild cold plus schools are super duper illness spreaders in regular times. Even with it being similar to the flu, it did overwhelm the healthcare system. Shutting things down was not about keeping people healthy, it was about keeping the healthcare system healthy. When to open up and what not, I began to switch sides. I saw people rampage on others about all the deaths they were going to cause when TX and FL opened up. I saw such statements like "they are going to kill millions" as 100% factual statements. When people wanted churches shut down for having outdoor services but never made a single noise about protests then you knew it wasn't about logic or health and it was about politics. When the politicians who lead the most draconian shut downs and loudest advocates but then it was a do as I say and not as I do elite having dinner parties sitting closely together with no masks (but of course the lowly service workers had masks) while people could not attend their own family members funerals was outrageous. But bring it up and people lose their minds (either side) because of politics.

People have married how they think about so much about COVID to their politics and because of that you can't have decent conversations about it and most people will not move from their positions because it then would cause reflection of their own stances if they were honest with themselves.

 

[AAABatteries]

I think a lot of people under 40 had to deal with the fallout of Covid - many still - whether their parents or loved ones died, they worked in the medical field, they lost their jobs, etc. Even if you say Covid wasn't a medical big deal for the vast majority of folks under 40 it's not accurate to say the overal impact of Covid wasn't a big deal for pretty much all of us. I mean remember the hand wringing about kids and their education? You can't have it both ways.

ETA - to be clear - the hand wringing about school was from both folks that thought we should be in person and those who thought we shouldn't.

 

[The Commish]

Plus, how many of those deaths were things like "He got decapitated in a car accident but tested positive for COVID.... so, the death certificate says COVID."

Is this serious or shtick?

Hyperbole. I guess I have to make more of an effort next time to make it obvious.

This is why I asked first. People here have made the EXACT argument you just did and believe that kind of stuff is absolutely true.

 

[Doug B]

Quiet. The adults are talking.

This was the equivalent of telling an Afghanistan veteran to STFU about PTSD. A well-considered withdrawal is in order here.

What was the IFR for adults under 40 with no comorbidities?

Many, many miles from the point. Your facts aren't wrong -- your tone was. Neither was it justified -- no, not even in response to "Is this a joke?".

I am taking it that you aren't aware of gianmarco's profession. If not, that is a mitigating factor in your favor.

 

[Scoresman]

Riding the COVID-19 waves: 2023 style

We find ourselves in the middle of a COVID-19 wave. Again. If this summer follows the previous three, we should expect ~10-15% of Americans to get infected. A nursing home outbreak recently spilled over to my extended family. They had a lot of great questions, particularly about how to manage...

yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com

Definitely a new wave right now. Why are they dragging their feet on the updated boosters? They used to say they could have new boosters for a new variant within a few months.

Going back to masking at grocery/other stores but not restricting other activities. I do have some upcoming vacations I'd rather not see cancelled.

 

[IvanKaramazov]

Quiet. The adults are talking.

This was the equivalent of telling an Afghanistan veteran to STFU about PTSD. A well-considered withdrawal is in order here.

What was the IFR for adults under 40 with no comorbidities?

Many, many miles from the point. Your facts aren't wrong -- your tone was. Neither was it justified -- no, not even in response to "Is this a joke?".

I am taking it that you aren't aware of gianmarco's profession. If not, that is a mitigating factor in your favor.

I don't care about @gianmarco 's profession. If he wants to be treated with respect, he can (a) stop quoting me out of context, (b) stop getting basic facts wrong, and (c) stop getting irrationally angry over uncontroversial statements of fact. The fact that he's a doctor and doesn't understand that covid-19 wasn't really all that dangerous for healthy people under 40 is a strike against him -- no idea why you think this works in his favor.

Also, people who have the facts on their side don't need to play the "don't you know who I am?" card. Was covid really that deadly for young-ish and healthy-ish adults? Show me the data. Don't point to somebody else's medical degree as if that mattered. It doesn't. I'm not impressed with other people's credentials, and you shouldn't be either.

 

[IvanKaramazov]

I know a bunch of you guys Googled "covid IFR by age" and quickly decided that pounding the table was your best bet to salvage a draw out of this.

 

[Doug B]

... stop getting irrationally angry over uncontroversial statements of fact.

"COVID wasn't all that bad" is an opinion. Agreement or disagreement depends on perspective and experiences, not on data.

 

[rockaction]

The fact that he's a doctor

I've been around and about this board for quite some time and my only response is "He is?"

You sure about that?

 

[Doug B]

I know a bunch of you guys Googled "covid IFR by age" and quickly decided that pounding the table was your best bet to salvage a draw out of this.

... this is a strawman. No one here thinks or thought COVID was laying young adults low.

 

[Doug B]

The fact that he's a doctor

I've been around and about this board for quite some time and my only response is "He is?"

You sure about that?

I understand that gianmarco is an RN. I thought he said as much in this thread, but haven't been able to find the post.

EDIT: Well, not a nurse after all. I understood that he was involved in patient care, but I'm not sure now in what capacity.

 

[The Z Machine]

I know a bunch of you guys Googled "covid IFR by age" and quickly decided that pounding the table was your best bet to salvage a draw out of this.

... this is a strawman. No one here thinks or thought COVID was laying young adults low.

Also, who cares if the IFR for young, healthy people is low if it's high for other groups within the population. People with asthma, people with autoimmune disorders, obese people, and the elderly. You can't just put all those folks in one half of the country and erect a Great Wall to protect them from getting infected and having adverse outcomes.

Furthermore, that ship sailed a long time ago anyway so what's the point about going back and saying, "look, I was right about not many adverse outcomes for young healthy people." OK, great. What should we have done about that?

 

[rockaction]

I understand that gianmarco is an RN. I thought he said as much in this thread, but haven't been able to find the post.

I thought he might be, but then thought that he worked at a hospital in an undisclosed fashion and that his wife was a nurse. I could be wrong and the notebook faulty. I actually hope it is because if it's not I waste way too much time on this board and haven't been advancing any semblance of a career one whit in doing so.

That said, working at a hospital in an undisclosed fashion does not rule out that he could be a doctor who chooses not to say so on this board. I just was not under that impression.

 

[LawFitz]

I see we're now fully in the anger/bargaining stages of this process. Recognize those emotions or they will overtake you. I speak from experience.

Also, this isn't a political topic, or at least shouldn't be. While it's true that it has/had been politicized by many, let's refocus away from that aspect and back to the main points relevant to today. Here are a few...

1. Do not trust the govt, pharma or their mainstream media minions to serve your best interest. At least not as those institutions stand today.

2. Do reflect on the (many) mistakes that were made during the first leg of this storm, as history tends to rhyme and we should be careful not to repeat. Reflect and learn, but don't dwell.

3. Omicron has made the immediate threat of Covid infection a relative nothingburger. And yet, as Dowd is trying to whistleblow, a new and immediate threat to our society appears accelerating - a threat no one seems to want to recognize right now, in a repeat of the denial stage that was in effect during the first storm leg. If his data proves prescient and trending, and I strongly suspect it will, we are in the eye of the hurricane and about to be blasted once again. That latest UK PIP data is insane, and yet here in this thread and all about, not a peep about it. I will repeat, z-scores of 5-6 are black swan events. The z-scores showing up in that data set are way beyond anything that can be explained by normal events.

 

[IvanKaramazov]

Furthermore, that ship sailed a long time ago anyway so what's the point about going back and saying, "look, I was right about not many adverse outcomes for young healthy people." OK, great. What should we have done about that?

Why do you people have so much difficulty following a simple argument? I never said, or in any way implied, that we should "do anything about" the low IFR. I said that it's a good thing covid-19 wasn't worse than it was, because the actual covid-19 melted our supply chains and think about how bad it would be if something more deadly to working-age people came along. And then you nitwits freaked out and here we are.

Last week, we all learned together that yes, the covid vaccine does apparently cause myocarditis in rare cases. You guys did a lot of huffing and puffing over that point, but you eventually got over it because what are going to do, argue with the CDC about it? You eventually just took the L and moved on.

This week, I am apparently breaking some news to you that covid-19 actually ended up being not all that dangerous to people who were young (or really, just not old) and in good health. We kind of "knew" that way back at the beginning of the pandemic, but we didn't know for sure. We do know for sure now. If your reaction to that observation is start banging on your keyboard with demands to remember all the old people and all the immunocompromised people and all the cancer patients, no. Grow up. I was having a friendly conversation with another adult poster about how covid-19 affected international supply chains. I am not here to pat you on your little head and assure you that yes the pandemic was very scary but we're all better now. Stop getting mad about unrelated topics that I'm not discussing and you'll find these conversations more pleasant.

 

[IvanKaramazov]

I think the real lesson is how fragile our modern civilization is. Imagine if COVID has a higher mortality rate than being marginally higher than the common cold. Preppers don't look so silly anymore.

Agreed. In hindsight, covid wasn't all that bad. Healthy people under 40 or so -- most workers -- never actually had anything to fear from this virus. And supply chains still completely melted down.

Of course, some of that had to do with government policies like shelter-in-place orders, so this was a bit of a choice variable. But if covid had been more deadly or if it had affected working-age adults or especially young people, I think we would have had a lot of folks refusing to report to work even if governments were imploring everyone to soldier on. That would have been a disaster well beyond anything that I would have seen coming in March 2020.

Somebody please explain to me how my post would have been in any way improved by adding something about how of course 80-year-olds were in much greater danger than 30-somethings. First of all, duh. Second, that has nothing to do with my point.

If you want to get mad at me, at least get mad over something I actually said.

 

[Terminalxylem]

I just remember how life was supposed to 'never be the same'. Now, life is exactly the same with no difference and COVID seemingly has just gone away.

If you worked in healthcare, you’d feel differently. Covid definitely exposed our broken system.

Is the system broken or was it overwhelmed?

I think the real lesson is how fragile our modern civilization is. Imagine if COVID has a higher mortality rate than being marginally higher than the common cold. Preppers don't look so silly anymore.

The broken system was/still is overwhelmed.

Both the IFR and CFR of SARS-CoV2 are magnitudes higher than rhinovirus. And those numbers were even higher earlier in the pandemic, so please stop comparing covid to a cold.

 

[Terminalxylem]

Quiet. The adults are talking.

This was the equivalent of telling an Afghanistan veteran to STFU about PTSD. A well-considered withdrawal is in order here.

Extremely obnoxious IMO. Thanks for speaking up.

 

[LawFitz]

Both the IFR and CFR of SARS-CoV2 are magnitudes higher than rhinovirus.

While this may be factually accurate, it's highly misleading at best. What happens when you multiply a number extremely close to zero by 'magnitudes?'

 

[Terminalxylem]

Agreed. In hindsight, covid wasn't all that bad.

Is this a joke?

7 million people died in 3 years from it and "it wasn't all that bad?"

I'm glad you didn't fit the demographic that needed to be worried, but for those that it did and for all those that lost loved ones to this (i. e. most people), this post is incredibly tone deaf.

Haven't you heard? It's basically just a cold, dude.

What was the IFR for adults under 40 with no comorbidities?

Don’t know, but that number isn’t especially relevant, as a huge percentage of the population isn’t young and healthy.

Thats kinda the way diseases work. They prey on people with comorbidities. If you limit your concern to things which regularly kill healthy people under 40, all you‘d care about are accidents. Once you survive the neonatal period, all the deadly regulars - heart disease, most cancers, stroke, dementia, diabetes, etc. are rare until middle age. As far as infections go, lower respiratory stuff (pneumonia) is probably the most common killer of younger people, but still isn’t too deadly by IFR.

 

[Doug B]

If you want to get mad at me, at least get mad over something I actually said.

"Covid wasn't all that bad"

That was the beginning and the end of the animus. The numbers, facts, data ... none of that is what kicked off the heightened emotions today.

 

[humpback]

Both the IFR and CFR of SARS-CoV2 are magnitudes higher than rhinovirus.

While this may be factually accurate, it's highly misleading at best. What happens when you multiply a number extremely close to zero by 'magnitudes?'

Millions more deaths.

 

[IvanKaramazov]

Agreed. In hindsight, covid wasn't all that bad.

Is this a joke?

7 million people died in 3 years from it and "it wasn't all that bad?"

I'm glad you didn't fit the demographic that needed to be worried, but for those that it did and for all those that lost loved ones to this (i. e. most people), this post is incredibly tone deaf.

Haven't you heard? It's basically just a cold, dude.

What was the IFR for adults under 40 with no comorbidities?

Don’t know, but that number isn’t especially relevant, as a huge percentage of the population isn’t young and healthy.

Thats kinda the way diseases work. They prey on people with comorbidities. If you limit your concern to things which regularly kill healthy people under 40, all you‘d care about are accidents. Once you survive the neonatal period, all the deadly regulars - heart disease, most cancers, stroke, dementia, diabetes, etc. are rare until middle age. As far as infections go, lower respiratory stuff (pneumonia) is probably the most common killer of younger people, but still isn’t too deadly by IFR.

Well, my comment was specifically about healthy adults under 40, so pointing out the existence of non-healthy adults and people over 40 isn't particularly relevant. I know those people exist, and I was very explicitly talking about other people.

Again, why is it so hard for you people to follow very simple, straightforward arguments?

 

[The Commish]

Two things:

1. I had no idea what "IFR" meant. After looking it up, I really don't understand why it's even being brought up in the context of how "bad" the virus is/was.
2. IK and Gia are coming from two completely different perspectives. IK is talking about a subset of the potential hosts for the virus. GIa is talking about the entirety of the population. As a result it's going to go nowhere. If you want productive conversation at least get on the same page so you're talking about the same thing(s).

My

 

[IvanKaramazov]

If you want to get mad at me, at least get mad over something I actually said.

"Covid wasn't all that bad"

That was the beginning and the end of the animus. The numbers, facts, data ... none of that is what kicked off the heightened emotions today.

Well well well. Look who else likes snipping quotes to remove context. Here, allow me to help:

Agreed. In hindsight, covid wasn't all that bad. Healthy people under 40 or so -- most workers -- never actually had anything to fear from this virus. (snip)

All it takes is looking at the very next sentence to see who I was talking about. I'm talking about healthy young people and was super-clear about that. I could not have dumbed down that point any further without including cartoon farm animals or something.

 

[Doug B]

Again, why is it so hard for you people to follow very simple, straightforward arguments?

People were reacting either/both to

1) Your opinion itself ("Covid wasn't all that bad") or ...
2) ... were disagreeing that the facts you cited well supported that opinion (<my words, not Ivan's> "Covid wasn't all that bad [in part because the IFR for those under 40 was tiny]" was bound to rankle).

EDIT: As explained below, the context isn't going to matter once the initial reaction sets in.

 

[Doug B]

All it takes is looking at the very next sentence to see who I was talking about. I'm talking about healthy young people and was super-clear about that. I could not have dumbed down that point any further without including cartoon farm animals or something.

I snipped that part of your post to make clear what drew the fire initially. That's all.

The rest of that post didn't matter -- the context didn't mitigate the reactions. I'm explaining to you that people were reacting to something specific in your post. They were not engaging in formal debate with you.

To me, your post wasn't that bad (rimshot) ... but I understand fully why it got to others.

 

[Chadstroma]

I just remember how life was supposed to 'never be the same'. Now, life is exactly the same with no difference and COVID seemingly has just gone away.

If you worked in healthcare, you’d feel differently. Covid definitely exposed our broken system.

Is the system broken or was it overwhelmed?

I think the real lesson is how fragile our modern civilization is. Imagine if COVID has a higher mortality rate than being marginally higher than the common cold. Preppers don't look so silly anymore.

The broken system was/still is overwhelmed.

Both the IFR and CFR of SARS-CoV2 are magnitudes higher than rhinovirus. And those numbers were even higher earlier in the pandemic, so please stop comparing covid to a cold.

I made one post about the cold when I was thinking of the flu.

70% of all U.S. COVID deaths were of those over the age of 70. The average age of deceased was 79.5 years, median 80.5. Why? Because these people are highly susceptible to dying. If they get the flu then that could do it to them as well. The big difference is that widespread use of fly shots for that age group. Unless the COVID vaccine, it was doing the job flu would have done without them getting flu shots every year.

 

[Chadstroma]

Agreed. In hindsight, covid wasn't all that bad.

Is this a joke?

7 million people died in 3 years from it and "it wasn't all that bad?"

I'm glad you didn't fit the demographic that needed to be worried, but for those that it did and for all those that lost loved ones to this (i. e. most people), this post is incredibly tone deaf.

Haven't you heard? It's basically just a cold, dude.

What was the IFR for adults under 40 with no comorbidities?

Don’t know, but that number isn’t especially relevant, as a huge percentage of the population isn’t young and healthy.

Thats kinda the way diseases work. They prey on people with comorbidities. If you limit your concern to things which regularly kill healthy people under 40, all you‘d care about are accidents. Once you survive the neonatal period, all the deadly regulars - heart disease, most cancers, stroke, dementia, diabetes, etc. are rare until middle age. As far as infections go, lower respiratory stuff (pneumonia) is probably the most common killer of younger people, but still isn’t too deadly by IFR.

For the 40-49 age group the CFR is 86% less than that of 60-69. The younger you go, the lower the CFR rates to that which is below that of the flu. But I guess that doesn't matter for some reason. It isn't unlike that of the flu. But stating what the numbers say sets you off.


Honest question.... were you one of the people that were saying how millions would die when TX and FL opened up?

 

[Scoresman]

Agreed. In hindsight, covid wasn't all that bad. Healthy people under 40 or so -- most workers -- never actually had anything to fear from this virus. (snip)

All it takes is looking at the very next sentence to see who I was talking about. I'm talking about healthy young people and was super-clear about that. I could not have dumbed down that point any further without including cartoon farm animals or something.

Come on. It's very easy to read what you wrote and interpret it as meaning "COVID wasn't that bad because healthy people under 40 didn't have much to fear." That's a very different statement than "COVID wasn't that bad for healthy people under 40."

 

[humpback]

If you want to get mad at me, at least get mad over something I actually said.

"Covid wasn't all that bad"

That was the beginning and the end of the animus. The numbers, facts, data ... none of that is what kicked off the heightened emotions today.

Well well well. Look who else likes snipping quotes to remove context. Here, allow me to help:

Agreed. In hindsight, covid wasn't all that bad. Healthy people under 40 or so -- most workers -- never actually had anything to fear from this virus. (snip)

All it takes is looking at the very next sentence to see who I was talking about. I'm talking about healthy young people and was super-clear about that. I could not have dumbed down that point any further without including cartoon farm animals or something.

It isn't nearly as super-clear as you want us to believe. You used multiple sentences, if you would have removed the period after "covid wasn't that bad" and replaced it with "for healthy people under 40 or so", that would have been super-clear. Also, the post you quoted and "Agreed" to didn't mention any specific groups of people when it said the mortality rate was only marginally higher than the common cold.

So, if you want to make a different point than was made in the post you quoted, you should probably make it a little more clear. And the ridiculous snark doesn't really help either.

 

[Chadstroma]

I think a lot of people under 40 had to deal with the fallout of Covid - many still - whether their parents or loved ones died, they worked in the medical field, they lost their jobs, etc. Even if you say Covid wasn't a medical big deal for the vast majority of folks under 40 it's not accurate to say the overal impact of Covid wasn't a big deal for pretty much all of us. I mean remember the hand wringing about kids and their education? You can't have it both ways.

ETA - to be clear - the hand wringing about school was from both folks that thought we should be in person and those who thought we shouldn't.

Sweden never closed down anything. They asked 70+ to limit social contact. The navigated the pandemic pretty well.

 

[LawFitz]

Sweden never closed down anything. They asked 70+ to limit social contact. The navigated the pandemic pretty well perfectly.

Great post, with one small tweak for ya.

 

[Doug B]

Sweden never closed down anything. They asked 70+ to limit social contact. The navigated the pandemic pretty well.

"Pretty well" depends on perspective and what the observer values.

Sweden's society and economy continued more or less as before, yes, even before vaccines were developed. However, Sweden did have both more COVID infirmity and more COVID deaths per million than their neighboring countries. Their society made the collective decision to accept that trade-off ... but make no mistake that there was, indeed, a trade-off.

COVID deaths per million
--------------------------
Sweden 2,401
Norway 1,018
Denmark 1,503
Finland 1,816
Germany 2,078

EDIT: The Norway figure above was originally in error -- it read 192 and should read 1,018. Correction is made above.

 

[LawFitz]

COVID deaths per million
--------------------------
Sweden 2,401
Norway 134
Denmark 1,503
Finland 1,816
Germany 2,078

Cool. Now compare the effects of the lockdowns vs. not shutting down.

 

[LawFitz]

We're getting sidetracked by the past. While worthwhile for discussion, there is a much more urgent matter we are facing in the present. Here is Dowd explaining his findings in great detail to Dr. Drew (yes, that Dr. Drew)... Well worth the listen. Even more worth discussion...

- YouTube

Enjoy the videos and music you love, upload original content, and share it all with friends, family, and the world on YouTube.

youtu.be

 

[The Z Machine]

We're getting sidetracked by the past. While worthwhile for discussion, there is a much more urgent matter we are facing in the present. Here is Dowd explaining his findings in great detail to Dr. Drew (yes, that Dr. Drew)... Well worth the listen. Even more worth discussion...

- YouTube

Enjoy the videos and music you love, upload original content, and share it all with friends, family, and the world on YouTube.

youtu.be

Is there a written paper or even an opinion piece that Dowd has put out on this topic? I don't like watching videos to form an opinion of someone's views on complex scientific topics.

 

[LawFitz]

Is there a written paper or even an opinion piece that Dowd has put out on this topic? I don't like watching videos to form an opinion of someone's views on complex scientific topics.

Layout of the UK disability analysis​

The analysis of disabilities in the UK is based on investigation of the Personal Independence Payment (PIP) program by the Department of Work and Pensions (DWP) in the UK. The data is monthly and provides a level of granularity that allows different studies to be performed, such as analysis by age group, sex, and underlying cause for the claim. We are currently working on the different aspects of the data analysis which will be rolled out on our website as it is completed.

UK - PIP Analysis - Body Systems

phinancetechnologies.com

UK - PIP Analysis - Causes

phinancetechnologies.com

 

[The Commish]

Is there a written paper or even an opinion piece that Dowd has put out on this topic? I don't like watching videos to form an opinion of someone's views on complex scientific topics.

Even if there were, would you put any meaningful value in it? Would you put any meaningful value in your banker giving you "advice" on how to structurally build a house?

 

[LawFitz]

• Our analysis of UK PIP clearances from new claims points towards an extraordinary rise in disabilities that started in 2021 and accelerated in 2022. When looking at the yearly rise in total claims we observe that in 2020 there was no significant change from the 2016-2019 average, while in 2021 the number of claims jumped to 99,642 (20.5%) above average and in 2022 it jumped to 372,540 (76.7%) above average. These correspond to changes that represent many standard deviations above normal values.

And the really wild part is that this trend has reaccelerated in the first half of 2023, per Dowd's latest greatest PIP data gathering.

 

[AAABatteries]

I think a lot of people under 40 had to deal with the fallout of Covid - many still - whether their parents or loved ones died, they worked in the medical field, they lost their jobs, etc. Even if you say Covid wasn't a medical big deal for the vast majority of folks under 40 it's not accurate to say the overal impact of Covid wasn't a big deal for pretty much all of us. I mean remember the hand wringing about kids and their education? You can't have it both ways.

ETA - to be clear - the hand wringing about school was from both folks that thought we should be in person and those who thought we shouldn't.

Sweden never closed down anything. They asked 70+ to limit social contact. The navigated the pandemic pretty well.

So? I didn’t realize I stumbled in to ScandinavianFBGS.com. That’s not what happened in the US or a lot of places.

 

[LawFitz]

Even if there were, would you put any meaningful value in it? Would you put any meaningful value in your banker giving you "advice" on how to structurally build a house?

What a terrible analogy. This would be more like putting meaningful value on your banker giving you advice about the statistical trends surrounding the housing market. Dowd is parsing data. You don't like what he's finding, fine. But don't start again with the fallacies.

 

[The Z Machine]

Interesting data set. Thanks. The most obvious point of rebuttal is that correlation is not causation. These data do not stratify by vaccination status. If perhaps these data showed that the increases only happened in those vaccinated as opposed to those that chose not to get the vax, that would be more compelling.

Also, what are the biological pathways that the mRNA vaccines could affect auditory or visual disabilities? To draw a conclusion at the minimum you should posit a plausible pathway. Otherwise one could say that since the number of google searches on "coronovirus" shot up in 2020 which also corresponded with a lot of hospitalizations for upper respiratory illness, that searching google for that term caused the illness. We know that isnt true because there is no biological pathway for that to happen and that there are alternative explanations that are more plausible. Sure that's an extreme example, but it was to illustrate the point.

The data set likely goes deep enough to note now many hand and foot amputations there were and whether that too changed in 2021 and 2022, but those data are not presented. If the data show that there was no change to PIP clearances in categories unlikely to be affected by the mRNA vaccines, that would be good to show to drive home some causation.

There are many things that might have triggered this jump. The most likeky being some change in the way they collect, analyze, and tabulate the data.
I'm not an expert in the UK NHS and PIP system to speculate if that's the case or not. Perhaps there were some wholesale changes in British trends for seeing doctors? I don't know. What I do know is that the papers linked do not prove any causal link between vaccinations and disability claims, but merely show some interesting statistical data showing a change from the before times vs. today. I encourage Mr. Dowd to investigate causation and not just correlation.