Another variant of interest has entered the chat. BA.2.86
Cases of the new COVID variant BA.2.86 have been spotted in Michigan, Denmark and Israel.
www.cbsnews.com
Just from what I gleaned combing through some evo bio Twitter threads on it, there are several different mutations that make it stand out, but nothing in early reporting saying it will be definitively worse, but not 'better' either. But it's also too early to tell a whole lot.
Dr. Jetelina has shared updated research on BA.2.86.
Since the last BA.2.86 update, lab and epidemiological data have trickled in. Many of us took a big sigh of relief after seeing specific results over the weekend. Here is your update. Lab data Three labs have already tested BA.2.86 in a petri dish. (The speed of scientific discovery for...
yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com
She seems pretty encouraged three weeks in. Takeaways:
Escapes immunity. As suspected, BA.2.86 can escape our neutralizing antibodies— our immune system’s first line of defense. We thought BA.2.86 would escape our antibodies ~10 times more than XBB (the most recent Omicron subvariant to sweep the U.S.), but it’s only escaping 2-3 fold. In other words, we can expect BA.2.86 to cause infections, but not as much as anticipated.
Infectivity. BA.2.86 has a more challenging time infecting our cells than XBB. The more difficult time it has getting into our cells, the better. (When a virus evolves, there are typically tradeoffs—it gets better at one thing but at the expense of another. It seems that BA.2.86 traded infectivity for antibody escape.)
... initial estimates suggest that BA.2.86 isn’t spreading as fast as the original Omicron (which had a weekly growth rate of 400%) but faster than XBB. In other words, we won’t have a tsunami, but a BA.2.86 wave is possible.
Maybe it's not right to measure everything against Omicron ... but it took Omicron less than a month to take over. Probably less than two weeks to demonstrate that it would, indeed, take over and skyrocket. At present, we can say that BA.2.86 isn't working anywhere near as quickly.