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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (6 Viewers)

It plays into it a ton.

If every single critical COVID patient could get billion-dollar care and have an entire ICU's staff thrown at their individual minute-by-minute care, the mortality rate would probably be tiny.

If, on the other hand, a lot of critical COVID patients end up in overrun healthcare systems and only get piecemeal care part of the time from exhausted, distracted healthcare providers ... then the mortality rate soars.

This is why I think conceiving of "mortality rate" as an intrinsic aspect of COVID is a giant mistake. "COVID only kills a low %!" No, not really -- a bunch of factors that stem from having COVID kills greater or fewer patients. Highly situational and sensitive to local healthcare conditions.
Forget about ventilators - we're running out of masks. My hospital downgraded from N95 to surgical masks first, now they're telling us to reuse single-use masks. My friend in CO says his hospital is out of all PPE. Meanwhile, the CDC is saying you can use a bandana in a pinch.

We're very close to healthcare providers caring for patients dressed like bank robbers. When they get sick, there won't be enough people to operate the ventilators.

Thank you, hoarders.

 
It plays into it a ton.

If every single critical COVID patient could get billion-dollar care and have an entire ICU's staff thrown at their individual minute-by-minute care, the mortality rate would probably be tiny.

If, on the other hand, a lot of critical COVID patients end up in overrun healthcare systems and only get piecemeal care part of the time from exhausted, distracted healthcare providers ... then the mortality rate soars.

This is why I think conceiving of "mortality rate" as an intrinsic aspect of COVID is a giant mistake. "COVID only kills a low %!" No, not really -- a bunch of factors that stem from having COVID kills greater or fewer patients. Highly situational and sensitive to local healthcare conditions.
Roughly 20% get hospitalized. Thats 4-5x times the flu rate (yes, I know it will go down a bit). And people stay in the hospital a long time. It's not difficult to understand the bed crunch,, even without exact numbers.

How often does flu inundate hospitals to the point they're rationing ventilators?

 
Bloomberg vanished from the mic. While some are donating to help like some NBA players, he's mia in a state he was proud to help for 9/11. 🤷‍♀️

 
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Found out last night that a coworker of mine is showing symptoms and was tested. I definitely have had contact with this individual earlier in the week. No handshaking or anything but we have handled the same tools. Multiple people have. I'm on vacation, which is canceled, so I'm just chilling at the house and feel fine for the most part. #@$& is getting real. 

 
I ordered carryout yesterday. I wanted Chinese and my little podunk town has two options. The one I've ordered from before is already closed, so I called the other. Went to pick it up and asked the guy (turns out he's either the owner or manager) what he thought going forward. He said yesterday was his last day open. He couldn't get any more deliveries. That made me think twice about my order, but I took it anyway. I asked him what he'd do in the meantime. Dude had tears in his eyes and said "I don't know". I started to reach out to shake his hand and wish him luck. He looked down at my hand, then at me, and we both laughed. I was crying, too.

 
Forget about ventilators - we're running out of masks. My hospital downgraded from N95 to surgical masks first, now they're telling us to reuse single-use masks. My friend in CO says his hospital is out of all PPE. Meanwhile, the CDC is saying you can use a bandana in a pinch.

We're very close to healthcare providers caring for patients dressed like bank robbers. When they get sick, there won't be enough people to operate the ventilators.

Thank you, hoarders.
@Joe Bryant

Hate to even waste your time, but the laughing emoji by bucksoh to multiple posts that are serious or intense like this one I quoted is disturbing.

He's been doing it throughout this thread and it's been noted and mentioned a few times already as he's the only one doing it. As we all get more and more affected by this, this "trolling" is getting offensive. Not what this thread or place needs.

 
God only knows the real number of positives walking around out there
I've been saying this for 2 weeks.  The current numbers are nothing--the tip of an enormous iceberg.  It's NYC.  Those sick people were on packed subway cars 10 days ago.  Millions of people literally ride the MTA subway and buses every day. And if you've ever done that during rush hour, you know how packed those trains get.  Those people were spreading this like wildfire.  And about 1.5 million commuters come through Penn Station and Grand Central Station every day--similarly packed trains, before and after they were on the NYC subway.  They were picking it up and bringing it out to Westchester, Long Island, and northern New Jersey.  It's everywhere.

It's not just going to be like this in NY, but it's going to be the worst in NY.  Most of the rest of you get in a car and drive to work every day by yourself.  We don't do that.

 
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I ordered carryout yesterday. I wanted Chinese and my little podunk town has two options. The one I've ordered from before is already closed, so I called the other. Went to pick it up and asked the guy (turns out he's either the owner or manager) what he thought going forward. He said yesterday was his last day open. He couldn't get any more deliveries. That made me think twice about my order, but I took it anyway. I asked him what he'd do in the meantime. Dude had tears in his eyes and said "I don't know". I started to reach out to shake his hand and wish him luck. He looked down at my hand, then at me, and we both laughed. I was crying, too.
Take care of yourself over there.

 
Harsh measures are not possible without widespread testing, IMO.

Even if we lockdown the entire country, the virus will re-appear the moment we re-open the airports, the shipyards, and the border crossings.
I don't imagine anything is re-opening in a normal fashion until there's rampant testing. 

But it's seems there's a lot of hope once that happens. Testing is why HIV didn't kill the porn industry. If the porn industry to get through a deadly STD with no cure or vaccine, we can get back to business. 

Of course, the "when" part is what we're all wondering.

 
Is anyone here in the "lockdown" area in California?  Can you tell us what is open/what is not, and what is permitted?  Basically the NY "pause" starts tomorrow night, and I'm just trying to figure out what we'll be able to easily get after that.  I imagine everyone is going to be thinking the same and there's going to be a huge run on stores today.  

I'm asking my parents and some of our elderly neighbors for shopping lists today and will basically just spend the day making store runs for everyone.  Those people should not be out at this point.  It's getting too serious.

 
Take care of yourself over there.
Man, I just got back from the Food Lion here. I'm usually the only one there this time on Saturday. Not today - it was #######' nuts. Probably 40 people shopping in that small store. No bread, no TP, no potatoes, a few gallons of 2% milk, no hot dogs, no cheese, etc.....

You guys stay safe over there, too.

 
Forget about ventilators - we're running out of masks. My hospital downgraded from N95 to surgical masks first, now they're telling us to reuse single-use masks. My friend in CO says his hospital is out of all PPE. Meanwhile, the CDC is saying you can use a bandana in a pinch.

We're very close to healthcare providers caring for patients dressed like bank robbers. When they get sick, there won't be enough people to operate the ventilators.

Thank you, hoarders.
You meant to say thank you china. 

 
I've been saying this for 2 weeks.  The current numbers are nothing--the tip of an enormous iceberg.  It's NYC.  Those sick people were on packed subway cars 10 days ago.  Millions of people literally ride the MTA subway and buses every day. And if you've ever done that during rush hour, you know how packed those trains get.  Those people were spreading this like wildfire.  And about 1.5 million commuters come through Penn Station and Grand Central Station every day--similarly packed trains, before and after they were on the NYC subway.  They were picking it up and bringing it out to Westchester, Long Island, and northern New Jersey.  It's everywhere.

It's not just going to be like this in NY, but it's going to be the worst in NY.  Most of the rest of you get in a car and drive to work every day by yourself.  We don't do that.
And it's not just about being on the subway with an infected person at the same time as them. It's also about being on the subway that an infected person was on earlier. The  virus lives on the surfaces of the train interiors.

The rate of spread of the virus in New York City is far greater than the rate of spread of the virus in Iowa farmland. Infected people in New York (as well as other densely populated areas) were infecting others at a rate of 10+ people. I posted that last week and was BARRAGED with people telling me to stop spreading misinformation because the R0 is only between 2.2 and 3.0. But you can't produce the numbers New York is producing if people in New York City are only infecting 2.2 to 3.0 other people. You have to multiply the R0 to account for the population density of an area. Rate of spread of the virus in Iowa farmlands is going to be significantly lower than the R0 as well. 

 
Cowboysfan8 said:
Did you see a list?

 Because apparently in Pa, ALOT of businesses are life sustaining
The initial list was very detailed and comprehensive but it has been adjusted now and a lot of waivers applied for. But a lot was shut down. 

 
I don't know if you guys watch the "ReacThing" YouTube channel out of South Korea. She does a lot of stuff, but her best videos are with her 80 year old grandmother (Grandma OK) trying different things (like "Korean in her 80's tries American Snacks). Delightful videos and Grandma OK is the most awesome person on the internet. Highly recommend. I've been worried about her through this. With each posted video, I'm a relieved to see her doing well.

Anyway, here's Grandma OK in Korea watching videos of toilet paper fights around the world

Obviously, their mood about every things seems a bit different. 

 
In NY, the three tier liquor system is considered an essential business. I tell my guys there are three reasons for that:

1) State needs revenue. Liquor stores are a big, easy money maker for the state through excise taxes. State's already going to take a hit on funding.
2) People are going to want to drink, regardless of shelter in place. To prevent speakeasies, bootlegging and home distilling, it's safer and better to keep stores open.
3) We need to keep hospitals clear of non Covid-19 cases. There's a non-miniscule percentage of the population (1%) that would end up in a hospital detoxxing if the supply of booze was just cut off.

I'm thinking that there's a fourth reason as well.

4) I have 50 guys that are trained in warehousing and 50 that are trained in distribution. If this gets real rough, we don't have to store and ship liquor and wine. We can easily transition to move product for the government. I hope that's not needed.

Work is tough. I think I have a mini-panic attack everyday coming home where I convince myself I'll have a 101 temp when I check after sanitizing when walking through the door. It's real tough on the drivers, even though driving is a very safe job. They can control their customer interaction. I can't control where a guy coughed in the warehouse. We currently have 5 folks that are home due to direct contact with a presumed positive or through significant other quarantine.

And with all that, my youngest brother was supposed to get married May 23 and we were supposed to go to Vegas the week before. He's just accepting these won't happen. He is an RN and was supposed to transfer to a dialysis ward. He just got the notice that all transfers are cancelled and that because of his ICU experience, he's going to be part of the COVID-19 triage room. I bought 20 N-95 masks about a month ago when the thread was starting to ramp up. I've used two. Going to give him a call to take the other 18, because it sounds real rough out there.

 
I found out that there's apparently a limit on how much bread you can buy at Publix, or at least the one I was at yesterday. Guy in front of me was buying bread for him and his daughter, she just ran out, he had I think 4 total, the cashier explained to him that bread was being "rationed(her word)." I think he had to give up 2 of them. Thank God I was just buying deodorant, that better never be rationed. I don't want to be around stinky people.

 
I found out that there's apparently a limit on how much bread you can buy at Publix, or at least the one I was at yesterday. Guy in front of me was buying bread for him and his daughter, she just ran out, he had I think 4 total, the cashier explained to him that bread was being "rationed(her word)." I think he had to give up 2 of them. Thank God I was just buying deodorant, that better never be rationed. I don't want to be around stinky people.
There were signs all over the store in my town that said limit 2 per customer of any item. 
 

My hope is that the hoarders now have way more bread, milk, and TP than the ever could use in a lifetime, and will stay home for a while. 

 
@Joe Bryant

Hate to even waste your time, but the laughing emoji by bucksoh to multiple posts that are serious or intense like this one I quoted is disturbing.

He's been doing it throughout this thread and it's been noted and mentioned a few times already as he's the only one doing it. As we all get more and more affected by this, this "trolling" is getting offensive. Not what this thread or place needs.
Can’t you just ignore it instead of tagging Joe?  I’m sure he has bigger things to worry about than people being offended by an emoji

 
There were signs all over the store in my town that said limit 2 per customer of any item. 
 

My hope is that the hoarders now have way more bread, milk, and TP than the ever could use in a lifetime, and will stay home for a while. 
That would be for the best. Honestly, I don't eat much bread, I drink almond milk(which keeps longer), and I have a good diet that helps me use less TP, but flushable wipes are also useful. Another way I save my TP is to go at work. Use their TP.

 
Braindead Brewing here in Dallas is organizing a drive-in movie. 

Great concept (the drive in... Drinking plus drive in would seem to be fine. If it were 1972).  Social event but isolated in your own cars. And a blast from the past.
Hope everyone brings a bucket in case they need a restroom.  :mellow:

 
I found out that there's apparently a limit on how much bread you can buy at Publix, or at least the one I was at yesterday. Guy in front of me was buying bread for him and his daughter, she just ran out, he had I think 4 total, the cashier explained to him that bread was being "rationed(her word)." I think he had to give up 2 of them. Thank God I was just buying deodorant, that better never be rationed. I don't want to be around stinky people.
Grocery stores should be rationing pretty much everything now from milk to meat to TP. Limits on everything. 

 
I found out that there's apparently a limit on how much bread you can buy at Publix, or at least the one I was at yesterday. Guy in front of me was buying bread for him and his daughter, she just ran out, he had I think 4 total, the cashier explained to him that bread was being "rationed(her word)." I think he had to give up 2 of them. Thank God I was just buying deodorant, that better never be rationed. I don't want to be around stinky people.
There’s a lot of quantity 2 limit signs on various items at our Publix here in Orlando area.  Most of the items I was okay with limits on, until I got to bacon and got panic sweats over such suppression

 
And it's not just about being on the subway with an infected person at the same time as them. It's also about being on the subway that an infected person was on earlier. The  virus lives on the surfaces of the train interiors.

The rate of spread of the virus in New York City is far greater than the rate of spread of the virus in Iowa farmland. Infected people in New York (as well as other densely populated areas) were infecting others at a rate of 10+ people. I posted that last week and was BARRAGED with people telling me to stop spreading misinformation because the R0 is only between 2.2 and 3.0. But you can't produce the numbers New York is producing if people in New York City are only infecting 2.2 to 3.0 other people. You have to multiply the R0 to account for the population density of an area. Rate of spread of the virus in Iowa farmlands is going to be significantly lower than the R0 as well. 
Or they finally ramped up testing

 
Grocery stores should be rationing pretty much everything now from milk to meat to TP. Limits on everything. 
Makes sense.

Side note, I'm super happy my grandpa decided to buy and butcher a cow, and then share the meat with me, my parents, and sister's families. Lots of lean beef and a chest freezer to put it in. This was back in December/January, too. 

 
Also, was there a dedicated thread to covid-19 medical news/updates?  Coulda swore I saw one but now not finding anything.  It might be best to separate that stuff to it’s own area as most the info in the immediate is about potential rather than actual usage due to clinical trials necessities and such.  But it’d be good to be able to look at the worldwide effort as it’s both promising and amazing to watch in real time such an effort

 
This is going around on facebook as happening here too. I think it's another internet myth. 
Yeah, it’s a hoax. Unfortunately, someone out there will likely get all worked up and shoot some poor delivery person or meter reader walking through their yard.

 
Yeah, it’s a hoax. Unfortunately, someone out there will likely get all worked up and shoot some poor delivery person or meter reader walking through their yard.
Is it?

Robbery scam prompts Daytona police alert

DAYTONA BEACH — The Daytona Beach Police Department is alerting residents to a home robbery scam targeting people concerned about the coronavirus outbreak. 

In some parts of the country, people dressed in white lab coats and masks are pretending to be from the Centers for Disease Control, according to social media posts from the police department.

The scammers are knocking on doors to talk to people about COVID-19, and sometimes even offer to test people for the virus, police said. Police warn that these scammers are taking advantage of fears surrounding the coronavirus in an attempt to rob homes.

 
Is it?

Robbery scam prompts Daytona police alert

DAYTONA BEACH — The Daytona Beach Police Department is alerting residents to a home robbery scam targeting people concerned about the coronavirus outbreak. 

In some parts of the country, people dressed in white lab coats and masks are pretending to be from the Centers for Disease Control, according to social media posts from the police department.

The scammers are knocking on doors to talk to people about COVID-19, and sometimes even offer to test people for the virus, police said. Police warn that these scammers are taking advantage of fears surrounding the coronavirus in an attempt to rob homes.
Yes, it is. Show me a police report or arrest where someone actually did this. I saw a pic of four black guys in white MOPP style gear over a week ago floating around with this saying to watch out. It was a fake.

 
Yes, it is. Show me a police report or arrest where someone actually did this. I saw a pic of four black guys in white MOPP style gear over a week ago floating around with this saying to watch out. It was a fake.
Boca Raton

This guy in Boca says:

They were knocking on doors and they were asking people if they wanted coronavirus tests for $300!” Umanksy told Contact 5 investigator Merris Badcock “They weren’t getting three cents out of me. I was ready to call the police immediately.” 

He said the scammers were dressed in Florida business casual attire and were carrying plastic bags and Q-tips, but no gloves, masks or credentials.

“I said, 'I'm going to call my doctor to make sure it is OK.' By the time I got back to the door, they were gone.”

Umansky called 911 and sent texts and emails to his friends about the potential scammers.

I don't know if it's a hoax or not, but not ready to dismiss it so quickly.

 
Here's a sophisticated tool being used to model the CV.

I've spent some time futzing with it and if I've figured it out right (no promises), getting the rate of transmission to 1 or below by the end of March saves roughly 90% of the lives we'd lose if we didn't get it done until the end of April.  The cost of waiting is absolutely enormous.  

And it's hard to tell what "best case" and "worst case" look like without knowing what's real-world achievable in terms of slowing the rate of transmission, so the range of outcomes is enormous. 

Not sure if .5 (each infected person infects .5 people on average) or 1.0 (each infected infects one other) or some other number is the input to use once we get serious about fighting this nationwide, but just for illustration (again, I have NO IDEA what's realistic)... getting it to .5 by the end of March gets us out of this with something like 30k fatalities.  Waiting until April and getting it down to 1.0 results in ~1MM eventual deaths.

Regardless of whether I'm using this exactly right or my input ranges are realistic, I think the takeaway here is that despite the wasted months, we still have a big opportunity to impact what happens over the next 6-12 months.

DO YOUR PART
This looks like a great tool for smarter people than myself...

 
Mr. Pickles said:
Is Obama still planning to take them?
He failed miserably.  On the plus side, all the small business workers that are losing their jobs still get to pay $800-$1000 a month for insurance premiums while the rest of us pay for his insurance.

 
Boca Raton

This guy in Boca says:

They were knocking on doors and they were asking people if they wanted coronavirus tests for $300!” Umanksy told Contact 5 investigator Merris Badcock “They weren’t getting three cents out of me. I was ready to call the police immediately.” 

He said the scammers were dressed in Florida business casual attire and were carrying plastic bags and Q-tips, but no gloves, masks or credentials.

“I said, 'I'm going to call my doctor to make sure it is OK.' By the time I got back to the door, they were gone.”

Umansky called 911 and sent texts and emails to his friends about the potential scammers.

I don't know if it's a hoax or not, but not ready to dismiss it so quickly.
I’ve lived in FL my whole life and I’m uncertain as to what “Florida business casual attire” is?  Tommy Bahamas and khakis?  Sport coat and flip-flops?

 
Boca Raton

This guy in Boca says:

They were knocking on doors and they were asking people if they wanted coronavirus tests for $300!” Umanksy told Contact 5 investigator Merris Badcock “They weren’t getting three cents out of me. I was ready to call the police immediately.” 

He said the scammers were dressed in Florida business casual attire and were carrying plastic bags and Q-tips, but no gloves, masks or credentials.

“I said, 'I'm going to call my doctor to make sure it is OK.' By the time I got back to the door, they were gone.”

Umansky called 911 and sent texts and emails to his friends about the potential scammers.

I don't know if it's a hoax or not, but not ready to dismiss it so quickly.
In days where everyone has a cell phone camera, and lots of people have door cams, I'd say an article without video proof can be questioned on a story like that. 

My sister knows an exec at Alabama Power though, and she heard they were going to shut down everything in the next 48 hours. You know, like everyone else who has a friend in the Pentagon, State Department, etc. these days.

I do believe there's a possibility someone perpetrated this scam, but it's fine to question a wild story like that too.

 
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Can’t you just ignore it instead of tagging Joe?  I’m sure he has bigger things to worry about than people being offended by an emoji


Yeah, getting upset over an emoji tag to a post is a bit much. Try to ignore it. Bigger issues to worry about.
Normally I’m 100% in your camp and I liberally use the ignore function and skip posts but we are in a life and death situation and this guy is making fun of serious posts about the situation - it’s completely vile and he should be banned.

 

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