CurlyNight
Footballguy
God help NY. They are our Italy now.
Forget about ventilators - we're running out of masks. My hospital downgraded from N95 to surgical masks first, now they're telling us to reuse single-use masks. My friend in CO says his hospital is out of all PPE. Meanwhile, the CDC is saying you can use a bandana in a pinch.It plays into it a ton.
If every single critical COVID patient could get billion-dollar care and have an entire ICU's staff thrown at their individual minute-by-minute care, the mortality rate would probably be tiny.
If, on the other hand, a lot of critical COVID patients end up in overrun healthcare systems and only get piecemeal care part of the time from exhausted, distracted healthcare providers ... then the mortality rate soars.
This is why I think conceiving of "mortality rate" as an intrinsic aspect of COVID is a giant mistake. "COVID only kills a low %!" No, not really -- a bunch of factors that stem from having COVID kills greater or fewer patients. Highly situational and sensitive to local healthcare conditions.
Roughly 20% get hospitalized. Thats 4-5x times the flu rate (yes, I know it will go down a bit). And people stay in the hospital a long time. It's not difficult to understand the bed crunch,, even without exact numbers.It plays into it a ton.
If every single critical COVID patient could get billion-dollar care and have an entire ICU's staff thrown at their individual minute-by-minute care, the mortality rate would probably be tiny.
If, on the other hand, a lot of critical COVID patients end up in overrun healthcare systems and only get piecemeal care part of the time from exhausted, distracted healthcare providers ... then the mortality rate soars.
This is why I think conceiving of "mortality rate" as an intrinsic aspect of COVID is a giant mistake. "COVID only kills a low %!" No, not really -- a bunch of factors that stem from having COVID kills greater or fewer patients. Highly situational and sensitive to local healthcare conditions.
Remember a few days ago when there was a side saying New York was in decent shape?Feel like I have been watching this slow motion disaster for days now...
For a lot of Americans ... it progressed from “China’s problem” to “Italy’s problem” to “Seattle’s problem” on through the first week of March.Remember a few days ago when there was a side saying New York was in decent shape?
@Joe BryantForget about ventilators - we're running out of masks. My hospital downgraded from N95 to surgical masks first, now they're telling us to reuse single-use masks. My friend in CO says his hospital is out of all PPE. Meanwhile, the CDC is saying you can use a bandana in a pinch.
We're very close to healthcare providers caring for patients dressed like bank robbers. When they get sick, there won't be enough people to operate the ventilators.
Thank you, hoarders.
There still is, had an owner of an essential services store tell me yesterday well there's been relatively few deaths.Remember a few days ago when there was a side saying New York was in decent shape?Feel like I have been watching this slow motion disaster for days now...
I've been saying this for 2 weeks. The current numbers are nothing--the tip of an enormous iceberg. It's NYC. Those sick people were on packed subway cars 10 days ago. Millions of people literally ride the MTA subway and buses every day. And if you've ever done that during rush hour, you know how packed those trains get. Those people were spreading this like wildfire. And about 1.5 million commuters come through Penn Station and Grand Central Station every day--similarly packed trains, before and after they were on the NYC subway. They were picking it up and bringing it out to Westchester, Long Island, and northern New Jersey. It's everywhere.God only knows the real number of positives walking around out there
Take care of yourself over there.I ordered carryout yesterday. I wanted Chinese and my little podunk town has two options. The one I've ordered from before is already closed, so I called the other. Went to pick it up and asked the guy (turns out he's either the owner or manager) what he thought going forward. He said yesterday was his last day open. He couldn't get any more deliveries. That made me think twice about my order, but I took it anyway. I asked him what he'd do in the meantime. Dude had tears in his eyes and said "I don't know". I started to reach out to shake his hand and wish him luck. He looked down at my hand, then at me, and we both laughed. I was crying, too.
I don't imagine anything is re-opening in a normal fashion until there's rampant testing.Harsh measures are not possible without widespread testing, IMO.
Even if we lockdown the entire country, the virus will re-appear the moment we re-open the airports, the shipyards, and the border crossings.
Man, I just got back from the Food Lion here. I'm usually the only one there this time on Saturday. Not today - it was #######' nuts. Probably 40 people shopping in that small store. No bread, no TP, no potatoes, a few gallons of 2% milk, no hot dogs, no cheese, etc.....Take care of yourself over there.
You meant to say thank you china.Forget about ventilators - we're running out of masks. My hospital downgraded from N95 to surgical masks first, now they're telling us to reuse single-use masks. My friend in CO says his hospital is out of all PPE. Meanwhile, the CDC is saying you can use a bandana in a pinch.
We're very close to healthcare providers caring for patients dressed like bank robbers. When they get sick, there won't be enough people to operate the ventilators.
Thank you, hoarders.
And it's not just about being on the subway with an infected person at the same time as them. It's also about being on the subway that an infected person was on earlier. The virus lives on the surfaces of the train interiors.I've been saying this for 2 weeks. The current numbers are nothing--the tip of an enormous iceberg. It's NYC. Those sick people were on packed subway cars 10 days ago. Millions of people literally ride the MTA subway and buses every day. And if you've ever done that during rush hour, you know how packed those trains get. Those people were spreading this like wildfire. And about 1.5 million commuters come through Penn Station and Grand Central Station every day--similarly packed trains, before and after they were on the NYC subway. They were picking it up and bringing it out to Westchester, Long Island, and northern New Jersey. It's everywhere.
It's not just going to be like this in NY, but it's going to be the worst in NY. Most of the rest of you get in a car and drive to work every day by yourself. We don't do that.
The initial list was very detailed and comprehensive but it has been adjusted now and a lot of waivers applied for. But a lot was shut down.Cowboysfan8 said:Did you see a list?
Because apparently in Pa, ALOT of businesses are life sustaining
There were signs all over the store in my town that said limit 2 per customer of any item.I found out that there's apparently a limit on how much bread you can buy at Publix, or at least the one I was at yesterday. Guy in front of me was buying bread for him and his daughter, she just ran out, he had I think 4 total, the cashier explained to him that bread was being "rationed(her word)." I think he had to give up 2 of them. Thank God I was just buying deodorant, that better never be rationed. I don't want to be around stinky people.
Can’t you just ignore it instead of tagging Joe? I’m sure he has bigger things to worry about than people being offended by an emoji@Joe Bryant
Hate to even waste your time, but the laughing emoji by bucksoh to multiple posts that are serious or intense like this one I quoted is disturbing.
He's been doing it throughout this thread and it's been noted and mentioned a few times already as he's the only one doing it. As we all get more and more affected by this, this "trolling" is getting offensive. Not what this thread or place needs.
No they cant.Can’t you just ignore it instead of tagging Joe? I’m sure he has bigger things to worry about than people being offended by an emoji
That would be for the best. Honestly, I don't eat much bread, I drink almond milk(which keeps longer), and I have a good diet that helps me use less TP, but flushable wipes are also useful. Another way I save my TP is to go at work. Use their TP.There were signs all over the store in my town that said limit 2 per customer of any item.
My hope is that the hoarders now have way more bread, milk, and TP than the ever could use in a lifetime, and will stay home for a while.
Hope everyone brings a bucket in case they need a restroom.Braindead Brewing here in Dallas is organizing a drive-in movie.
Great concept (the drive in... Drinking plus drive in would seem to be fine. If it were 1972). Social event but isolated in your own cars. And a blast from the past.
Grocery stores should be rationing pretty much everything now from milk to meat to TP. Limits on everything.I found out that there's apparently a limit on how much bread you can buy at Publix, or at least the one I was at yesterday. Guy in front of me was buying bread for him and his daughter, she just ran out, he had I think 4 total, the cashier explained to him that bread was being "rationed(her word)." I think he had to give up 2 of them. Thank God I was just buying deodorant, that better never be rationed. I don't want to be around stinky people.
There’s a lot of quantity 2 limit signs on various items at our Publix here in Orlando area. Most of the items I was okay with limits on, until I got to bacon and got panic sweats over such suppressionI found out that there's apparently a limit on how much bread you can buy at Publix, or at least the one I was at yesterday. Guy in front of me was buying bread for him and his daughter, she just ran out, he had I think 4 total, the cashier explained to him that bread was being "rationed(her word)." I think he had to give up 2 of them. Thank God I was just buying deodorant, that better never be rationed. I don't want to be around stinky people.
Yeah, getting upset over an emoji tag to a post is a bit much. Try to ignore it. Bigger issues to worry about.Can’t you just ignore it instead of tagging Joe? I’m sure he has bigger things to worry about than people being offended by an emoji
Or they finally ramped up testingAnd it's not just about being on the subway with an infected person at the same time as them. It's also about being on the subway that an infected person was on earlier. The virus lives on the surfaces of the train interiors.
The rate of spread of the virus in New York City is far greater than the rate of spread of the virus in Iowa farmland. Infected people in New York (as well as other densely populated areas) were infecting others at a rate of 10+ people. I posted that last week and was BARRAGED with people telling me to stop spreading misinformation because the R0 is only between 2.2 and 3.0. But you can't produce the numbers New York is producing if people in New York City are only infecting 2.2 to 3.0 other people. You have to multiply the R0 to account for the population density of an area. Rate of spread of the virus in Iowa farmlands is going to be significantly lower than the R0 as well.
Makes sense.Grocery stores should be rationing pretty much everything now from milk to meat to TP. Limits on everything.
The ramped it up across the US, not just NYC.Or they finally ramped up testing
Yeah, it’s a hoax. Unfortunately, someone out there will likely get all worked up and shoot some poor delivery person or meter reader walking through their yard.This is going around on facebook as happening here too. I think it's another internet myth.
Is it?Yeah, it’s a hoax. Unfortunately, someone out there will likely get all worked up and shoot some poor delivery person or meter reader walking through their yard.
Yes, it is. Show me a police report or arrest where someone actually did this. I saw a pic of four black guys in white MOPP style gear over a week ago floating around with this saying to watch out. It was a fake.Is it?
Robbery scam prompts Daytona police alert
DAYTONA BEACH — The Daytona Beach Police Department is alerting residents to a home robbery scam targeting people concerned about the coronavirus outbreak.
In some parts of the country, people dressed in white lab coats and masks are pretending to be from the Centers for Disease Control, according to social media posts from the police department.
The scammers are knocking on doors to talk to people about COVID-19, and sometimes even offer to test people for the virus, police said. Police warn that these scammers are taking advantage of fears surrounding the coronavirus in an attempt to rob homes.
It's possible. How's the parking lot at you local Walmart, CVS or Wahlgreen's looking?Or they finally ramped up testing
Boca RatonYes, it is. Show me a police report or arrest where someone actually did this. I saw a pic of four black guys in white MOPP style gear over a week ago floating around with this saying to watch out. It was a fake.
This looks like a great tool for smarter people than myself...Here's a sophisticated tool being used to model the CV.
I've spent some time futzing with it and if I've figured it out right (no promises), getting the rate of transmission to 1 or below by the end of March saves roughly 90% of the lives we'd lose if we didn't get it done until the end of April. The cost of waiting is absolutely enormous.
And it's hard to tell what "best case" and "worst case" look like without knowing what's real-world achievable in terms of slowing the rate of transmission, so the range of outcomes is enormous.
Not sure if .5 (each infected person infects .5 people on average) or 1.0 (each infected infects one other) or some other number is the input to use once we get serious about fighting this nationwide, but just for illustration (again, I have NO IDEA what's realistic)... getting it to .5 by the end of March gets us out of this with something like 30k fatalities. Waiting until April and getting it down to 1.0 results in ~1MM eventual deaths.
Regardless of whether I'm using this exactly right or my input ranges are realistic, I think the takeaway here is that despite the wasted months, we still have a big opportunity to impact what happens over the next 6-12 months.
DO YOUR PART
He failed miserably. On the plus side, all the small business workers that are losing their jobs still get to pay $800-$1000 a month for insurance premiums while the rest of us pay for his insurance.Mr. Pickles said:Is Obama still planning to take them?
Drive thru testing started here on ThursdayIt's possible. How's the parking lot at you local Walmart, CVS or Wahlgreen's looking?
I’ve lived in FL my whole life and I’m uncertain as to what “Florida business casual attire” is? Tommy Bahamas and khakis? Sport coat and flip-flops?Boca Raton
This guy in Boca says:
They were knocking on doors and they were asking people if they wanted coronavirus tests for $300!” Umanksy told Contact 5 investigator Merris Badcock “They weren’t getting three cents out of me. I was ready to call the police immediately.”
He said the scammers were dressed in Florida business casual attire and were carrying plastic bags and Q-tips, but no gloves, masks or credentials.
“I said, 'I'm going to call my doctor to make sure it is OK.' By the time I got back to the door, they were gone.”
Umansky called 911 and sent texts and emails to his friends about the potential scammers.
I don't know if it's a hoax or not, but not ready to dismiss it so quickly.
In days where everyone has a cell phone camera, and lots of people have door cams, I'd say an article without video proof can be questioned on a story like that.Boca Raton
This guy in Boca says:
They were knocking on doors and they were asking people if they wanted coronavirus tests for $300!” Umanksy told Contact 5 investigator Merris Badcock “They weren’t getting three cents out of me. I was ready to call the police immediately.”
He said the scammers were dressed in Florida business casual attire and were carrying plastic bags and Q-tips, but no gloves, masks or credentials.
“I said, 'I'm going to call my doctor to make sure it is OK.' By the time I got back to the door, they were gone.”
Umansky called 911 and sent texts and emails to his friends about the potential scammers.
I don't know if it's a hoax or not, but not ready to dismiss it so quickly.
Can’t you just ignore it instead of tagging Joe? I’m sure he has bigger things to worry about than people being offended by an emoji
Normally I’m 100% in your camp and I liberally use the ignore function and skip posts but we are in a life and death situation and this guy is making fun of serious posts about the situation - it’s completely vile and he should be banned.Yeah, getting upset over an emoji tag to a post is a bit much. Try to ignore it. Bigger issues to worry about.
In a few places but otherwise nopeOr they finally ramped up testing