JAA
Footballguy
When you say economic concerns, what specifically are they? Can you detail a little bit the basis behind your concerns? Where are you getting your data from?
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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (10 Viewers)
- Thread starter Big League Chew
- Start date
Mr Anonymous
Footballguy
Not at all what people are saying. Every doctor (even the ones fearing the worst) are using the flu as scale. That's what people are doing here. It's about how every year we have something that hospitals treat in waves to varying degree. The flu season is spread over 5-6 months. If it turns out that CV19 was spread over those same months, it becomes a much more scale-able virus.
Mr Anonymous
Footballguy
The study is still collecting data. The doctor running it has been sharing some of his findings via interviews and articles. But yes, at some point the data will be available in a more convenient form to consume.
Chadstroma
Footballguy
A lot of people are going to make very bad choices based on poor advice or poor understanding of forbearance. I am much more worried about the forbearance as a potential crisis than the rest of the economic recovery. The medicine will be worse than the disease on this.
moleculo
Footballguy
It would also an astoundingly, outrageous surprise to learn that it took 3 months to travel from California to New York, and that California's hospitals were able to deal with a surge without mass graves or temporary morgues.
None of the people you are quoting saying CA has herd immunity have seen the data, so what do they have to base that on other than gut feelings or political convenience?
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NotSmart
Footballguy
Are we thinking the antibody test results will have some sort of time component to them?
E. g. "From your antibody test we can tell that you had the virus three months ago".
If all the test can tell us is whether someone already had the virus at some point in the past, that won't help with answering the question of when they actually were ill.
shader
Footballguy
The Stanford study does not say what that poster is implying.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/slate.com/technology/2020/04/coronavirus-circulating-california-2019-bunk.amp
NotSmart
Footballguy
Does Shipt give you any capability to communicate that back to the person that did your shopping? They might appreciate that feedback.
moleculo
Footballguy
I look forward to it, but moreso the review from peers and experts. I hope he is right but i have serious doubts.
Further, if he is wrong and we open up too soon, it will cost tens (if not hundreds) of thousands of lives. The data better be damn convincing.
shader
Footballguy
Yes you can text back and forth with your shopper while they are shopping. My wife sends pictures of available bread choices, as an example.
Mr Anonymous
Footballguy
Nathan R. Jessep
Footballguy
Doesn't give you the warm and fuzzies about a vaccine anytime in the near future, but realistic, IMO, and doesn't completely rule out the possibility, so there's that:
Why a coronavirus vaccine could take way longer than a year
Why a coronavirus vaccine could take way longer than a year
Mr Anonymous
Footballguy
Nice of them to write the conclusion of a study that hasn't been completed or published yet. And even more so for you to share this with us. Now why would they (or you) do that?
What should be an obvious red flag is the fact that nowhere in that story or any other story trying to discredit it, is the name of the doctor heading the study. Instead they're trying to discredit based on stories emanating from a conservative political commentator. He's the one pushing the notion of herd immunity.
But by all means fall for the usual media practice of trying to discredit by distortion.
NotSmart
Footballguy
There is a very good NYT "The Daily" podcast episode about this situation.
I will link it up in a little while.
shader
Footballguy
Believing what all the authorities and medical experts are recommending is not “taking a side”
moleculo
Footballguy
To be fair, you seem to be writing about the conclusion of a study that hasn't been completed or published yet too.
Has the conclusion been published yet? I think if someone is saying the conclusion has not been published, AND the conclusion has not been published, they are telling the truth? What is your angle if this is not satisfactory?
Mr Anonymous
Footballguy
Well we know that's inaccurate because not all authorities or experts are recommending these same measures. So by that very fact, going one way or another is indeed choosing to believe in a side.
Mr Anonymous
Footballguy
Well to be fair I did watch that full video and have read (and shared) articles recapping some of the findings that doctor in the Stanford study has found so far. I can't speak to the final conclusion but at least we now know that some very accomplished and well respected doctors paint this virus in an entirely different light. If they wind up being right, it will show that the path the U.S. took was disastrously misdirected. Offering that side from people well more versed on this stuff than anyone here really shouldn't be a problem.
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
We’ve seen how well free will handled the pandemic initially, too. What makes you think the outcome will differ now?
BassNBrew
Footballguy
I’ve just completed my study and have some great news for you guys. The number of cases is exponentially decreasing and we can go back to normal May 1 at the latest. Herd immunity Is likely 3-4 weeks away.
You want to know my basis? We have about 40 footballguys that had the virus in November to January and zero to date in March and April. The odds of that are astronomical unless the virus has virtually disappeared
You want to know my basis? We have about 40 footballguys that had the virus in November to January and zero to date in March and April. The odds of that are astronomical unless the virus has virtually disappeared
TwinTurbo
Footballguy
It definitely didn't start here in the early Fall, but there were people in LA and Seattle getting sick in late Dec and early Jan like they never did before and being wiped out for 2 weeks or more with the exact symptoms of covid. But they never went to the hospital. So it wasn't really picked up and there was no testing, so it's just speculation at this point.
But it didn't take months to go from Cali to NYC, it was probably there on both coasts, perhaps just a few days or weeks apart. Hundreds of thousands of people coming from China and Europe with direct flights into cities like LA, SF, Seattle, NYC, and Detroit. And hundreds of coast to coast flights daily.
3 weeks ago the total number of US confirmed cases was 30,000, so the real number was at least 300,000 or higher. Now the number of confirmed cases is over 500,000 which means the real number is probably 5M or more. And what time will probably show is that most of the cases are asymptomatic, much higher than we are being told.
I am not scouring the internet for COVID-19 news or anything so you might have more information than I do, but what findings has the doctor in the Stanford study found so far?
Also (not attached to the previous quote) - "I got sick in the middle of cold and flu season in december, it must be COVID-19". I have two kids in daycare, for the last 3 years I have been sick essentially November through March every year. Big woop, you got sick, there is a 99.999% chance you did not get COVID-19 in December.
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moleculo
Footballguy
Here is a report on genetic mapping which shows that the virus in the US started to spread in Jan 2020 and not before.
I'm quite sure there was a bug going around in November that had similar symptoms. But based on research by some pretty well qualified epidemiologists and geneticists and the data collected, it wasn't COVID19.
I'm quite sure there was a bug going around in November that had similar symptoms. But based on research by some pretty well qualified epidemiologists and geneticists and the data collected, it wasn't COVID19.
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Terminalxylem
Footballguy
Which doctors and scientists are you trusting?
I feel this is kinda like climate science, where you have to look pretty hard to find an outlying opinion. But I’d like to read more from a practicing infectious disease physician or epidemiologist with a different opinion.
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BassNBrew
Footballguy
My partner had those symptoms 3 years ago and never tested positive for the flu despite 4 trips to her doc and urgent care. She eventually ended up in icu. I don’t think she had covid19. People have been getting sick like this for years.
Mr Anonymous
Footballguy
His earlier studies are fully known and were summarized in the video prior. Much lower mortality rates, more effective measures to combat, what went wrong in Italy and why its so unique, etc.
The current study is aimed at trying to pinpoint when this actually began to impact the U.S. Bits and pieces of the study emerging with broad findings such as it's mass arrival in parts of the country by December and possibly as early as November 17th. That's a very exact date so it will be interesting to see the final study to see who they traced back to on that one.
It's being bastardized via attacking a conservative political commentator who threw the blanket idea on it that California could have herd immunity. By attacking him, the media is trying to discredit the study itself, which hasn't made that claim of herd immunity.
Mr Anonymous
Footballguy
The first KNOWN case in January has been documented for awhile. Do you assume that further studies and testing won't find earlier cases?
shader
Footballguy
Mr A, when we go back and forth it doesn't help the board. I'm going to lay it out one more time and hope the two of us can come to an understanding. I'm going to start off by apologizing for any past "snark/shtick/anger" I may have given off. None of us like being quarantined and we all have good and bad days.
To address the above post, it's difficult for me to agree with you. Billions of people in this world are quarantined. 50 states are under disaster declarations. The president (Republican) and almost every democrat leader out there publicly are in support of us staying quarantined for now. Every podcast/doctor/scientist/epidemiologist that I've read or listened to is in support of these measures. The CDC and the WHO both support these measures.
So where is the other side? Seriously? I may start a different thread to honestly discuss this issue and lay it out. It likely will have to be in the political forum, but I'd love to know. Who believes that this is a huge over-reaction?
Mr A, here's why I have struggled to sympathize with your POV:
It's dangerous.
Currently, the absolute BEST-CASE SCENARIO for a death rate is 1-2%. That's best case. To be honest, Germany and South Korea are closer to 2%, and we know that they've done an exceptional job of testing.
If you extrapolate a best-case CFR of 1% to America, that's over 3 million deaths if everyone gets it. And a catastrophic toll on every hospital. That is the reality based on the information that we have right now.
Now it may turn out that when antibody tests come out that you're right! Maybe the death rate will be .1% and this was the biggest over-reaction in the history of the world. I cannot predict the future and I cannot predict the results of future antibody tests. If that happens, I'm sure a lot of people will have egg on their faces.
But imagine that public policy was built around the assumption that the CFR is .1-.5% and so they allowed herd immunity to happen and then 3-10 million people died. It would be a lot worse than "egg on the face". It would be direct blood on the hands of the officials that took those risks with the general population.
Can't you see that? Look, I hope you're right. I don't think that you are, but I'll be glad if you are. I don't want to be quarantined for the next 9 months. I want to go see friends and family, I want to take my family to Disney World, I want Liverpool to win the title and @gianmarco not to blame me for posting too much in this thread and figuring out yet another way to jinx our beloved Reds. But dang it, I'm gonna stick with the facts that we have until they are proven wrong. Because at the end of the day, this is a novel virus and until it runs it's course, we are learning new things about it every single day.
bucksoh
Footballguy
I can give you the director of nursing of two of the nursing homes. They placed them in.
skol asylum
Footballguy
Dr. Popper is not an MD, and is not reputable looking at her website (complete quackery IMO), and Dr Ioannidis is not running the antibody study. I hope you are right, but we have no information on how many people are testing positive for COVID-19 antibodies without symptoms, but you seem very convinced that we do have that number and it is high.
Dr_Zaius
Footballguy
I think the issue that people are having is that the consensus narrative seems to some in conflict with itself. If we take as given that the virus is highly contagious and can have a long incubation time, given that different jurisdictions shut things down at different times, shouldn't some of the places slower to shut down have seen even more catastrophic results? I mean, even Italy has supposedly only like 1% people infected. Given lack of testing, you could certainly argue the truth is higher than that, but it seems it would have to be much higher to start to get the leveling off that we have seen. People keep declaring that the US sucks at social distancing, and yet things seem to be leveling off sooner and at a lower level than initially predicted. If it was truly doubling every 2-3 days, shouldn't it have way overshot 1% in some places? If it was doubling every 2-3 days, how was their such a lag from Wuhan to the rest of the world?
It seems to me that something must be off with the consensus understanding. Thinking that there are more asymptomatic cases or it was spreading in January and February are ways that people are trying to reconcile the discrepancy. Or maybe social distancing decreases R0 way more than anticipated. Or it could be that every place gets their "oh &*%$" moment at around the same illness level and that's why Europe and the US have ended up in similar spots, in which case we are kind of boned and as soon as things open up it starts spreading again. I don't think there is enough data to be able to tell for sure either way.
It seems to me that something must be off with the consensus understanding. Thinking that there are more asymptomatic cases or it was spreading in January and February are ways that people are trying to reconcile the discrepancy. Or maybe social distancing decreases R0 way more than anticipated. Or it could be that every place gets their "oh &*%$" moment at around the same illness level and that's why Europe and the US have ended up in similar spots, in which case we are kind of boned and as soon as things open up it starts spreading again. I don't think there is enough data to be able to tell for sure either way.
HellToupee
Footballguy
This looks like a scene from China but it’s Philadelphia
Shock moment passenger is ‘dragged off Philadelphia bus by 10 cops for not wearing a face mask’
Les Steed
A PASSENGER was left angry and humiliated after he was filmed being dragged off a bus by cops apparently for not wearing a face mask.
The bus driver, who himself was not wearing a mask, had ordered the passenger to leave the bus in Philadelphia on Friday as he did not have a face mask on - but the man refused.
The man was carried out of the bus after officers snatched his legs off the ground
The "rule" had been put up as an unenforceable suggestion on the SEPTA website just the night before, leaving most passengers completely unaware.
The Philadelphia city transit system SEPTA has since said it would no longer enforce their short-lived policy requiring passengers to wear a facemask during the coronavirus pandemic.
Shock moment passenger is ‘dragged off Philadelphia bus by 10 cops for not wearing a face mask’
Les Steed
A PASSENGER was left angry and humiliated after he was filmed being dragged off a bus by cops apparently for not wearing a face mask.
The bus driver, who himself was not wearing a mask, had ordered the passenger to leave the bus in Philadelphia on Friday as he did not have a face mask on - but the man refused.
The man was carried out of the bus after officers snatched his legs off the ground
The "rule" had been put up as an unenforceable suggestion on the SEPTA website just the night before, leaving most passengers completely unaware.
The Philadelphia city transit system SEPTA has since said it would no longer enforce their short-lived policy requiring passengers to wear a facemask during the coronavirus pandemic.
Mr Anonymous
Footballguy
And I'd once again simply say, sharing the possibility of the other side, also backed by specialists, doctors, and experts (not exclusive to one side) is not dangerous. It's a message board. We are but a small segment of the world, going through this and consuming info in different ways. No one who may believe the same as me, that this is a bad virus which needs more attention but not shut downs, is running out and licking hand rails as I often say. They just want to hear the less reported but just as credible science that says this won't have to keep us locked up in our homes for many more months. To not share that side of the story, when it could very well wind up being true, would be nonsensical.
I really don't know why you feel the two sides need to be separated and the info kept from either side. I've never understood that.
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BobbyLayne
Footballguy
I might have missed a post, but it would appear your claiming to have knowledge the governor of Ohio moved Covid-19 patients from hospitals to elder care facilities, and this has not bern published anywhere?
Did I do a good job of summarizing your posts, or did I get something incorrect along the way?
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Saw that on social media yesterday without any context & thought “dang, Russia is taking this stuff serious.”
Wait...does that yellow vest say PHI?
Mister CIA
Footballguy
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
How do you know this?
Also, I think the more commonly proposed solution is “see you when new cases are curtailed, and we have sufficient resources to perform rapid testing and contact tracing if/when it re-emerges.” That may be possible before July.
That one guy
Footballguy
[Archer]Saw that on social media yesterday without any context & thought “dang, Russia is taking this stuff serious.”
Wait...does that yellow vest say PHI?
Do you want snowballs thrown at Santa? Because this is how you get snowballs thrown at Santa!
[/Archer]
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
Thank you for posting this.
I find it hard to wrap my mind around the fact that the US seriously might not be able to pull off the kind of widespread testing that Paul Romer is pushing for. This is something that we know how to do -- we just need scale. If you had told me six weeks ago that the US would never be able to come close to South Korea (another developed country with a solid scientific research infrastructure) in testing capacity, I would have laughed at you. This is one aspect of covid that I got way wrong.
top dog
Footballguy
Can you expand on this a little? I trying to wrap my head around this. Ohio has not maxed out their capacity but COVID patients were places in two nursing homes under order of the governor? Why was this done?
Mister CIA
Footballguy
bucksoh
Footballguy
It was done in Columbus, the hospitals need the room. These kinds of things happen. Although people outside of the industry will never know about it.
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
It’s not just psychology that makes one reluctant to accept the promise of a new treatment. The scientific method demands skepticism.
While I won’t deny some people’s need for good news, and pessimism in others, I’m much more interested in proof.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
@Mr Anonymous @shader @anyone
It doesn’t matter which model is correct or if there is an unpublished, non-peer reviewed report which indicates we’ve gone too far.
Do you remember what Dr Fauci said early on? If we do this correctly, it will look like we went too far. If social distancing works, you’ll know in part because we’ll get criticized for having overreacted.
Let’s take another perspective on this question.
What did we collectively decide after 9/11?
By any means necessary. No matter the cost. Billions and billions of dollars. 10K (?) American lives, hundreds of thousands of lives in other countries. It’s all worth it if we ensure we can never, ever have another attack on our country.
Theres plenty of room for debate on all of that, but the point is simply this: we were all in.
What has been the collective, global response to Covid-19?
Whatever it takes. We are unwilling to accept preventable deaths in order to ensure economic activity. We will do whatever it takes.
When that’s the collective response, what is going to sway the masses? It’s not going to be what one leader says or a study indicates might be possible.
There’s no miracle cure around the corner, we’re not going to have a vaccine available anytime soon. So we have to consider how to live within that framework: no reliable, proven therapeutics, no widely available vaccines, for at least 12 and perhaps 18 months.
Social distancing and PPE for all will be the norm for us until we have a vaccine. Two meters distance is the key to our existence, #masks4all, nobody is allowed to return to work unless it is safe. The public needs assurance.
If you’re an employer, are you going to be anxious to recall your workforce? Of course not. You’re going to risk litigation because your work environment is dangerous? You have to have a safe environment. You have to have rapid & continuous testing, along with contact tracing.
Only those proven to have tested negative or those who have recovered & have the antibodies will be allowed to work.
Life is not going to look like normalcy for long, long time.
It doesn’t matter which model is correct or if there is an unpublished, non-peer reviewed report which indicates we’ve gone too far.
Do you remember what Dr Fauci said early on? If we do this correctly, it will look like we went too far. If social distancing works, you’ll know in part because we’ll get criticized for having overreacted.
Let’s take another perspective on this question.
What did we collectively decide after 9/11?
By any means necessary. No matter the cost. Billions and billions of dollars. 10K (?) American lives, hundreds of thousands of lives in other countries. It’s all worth it if we ensure we can never, ever have another attack on our country.
Theres plenty of room for debate on all of that, but the point is simply this: we were all in.
What has been the collective, global response to Covid-19?
Whatever it takes. We are unwilling to accept preventable deaths in order to ensure economic activity. We will do whatever it takes.
When that’s the collective response, what is going to sway the masses? It’s not going to be what one leader says or a study indicates might be possible.
There’s no miracle cure around the corner, we’re not going to have a vaccine available anytime soon. So we have to consider how to live within that framework: no reliable, proven therapeutics, no widely available vaccines, for at least 12 and perhaps 18 months.
Social distancing and PPE for all will be the norm for us until we have a vaccine. Two meters distance is the key to our existence, #masks4all, nobody is allowed to return to work unless it is safe. The public needs assurance.
If you’re an employer, are you going to be anxious to recall your workforce? Of course not. You’re going to risk litigation because your work environment is dangerous? You have to have a safe environment. You have to have rapid & continuous testing, along with contact tracing.
Only those proven to have tested negative or those who have recovered & have the antibodies will be allowed to work.
Life is not going to look like normalcy for long, long time.
moleculo
Footballguy
I'm assuming that if the bug were here in November, it didn't die out in January. It's descendants would be part of the current epidemic and show up in the sampling used for the study. If it were there, it would show up as a separate branch of the family tree.
top dog
Footballguy
That makes it sound more like it was a decision being made by the facilities. And it happens. But in your original reply to me you implied that it was DeWine's doing. I couldn't wrap my head around why the governor would move patients into a nursing facility. It just doesn't make any sense.
