*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (13 Viewers)

[bucksoh]

That makes it sound more like it was a decision being made by the facilities.  And it happens.  But in your original reply to me you implied that it was DeWine's doing.   I couldn't wrap my head around why the governor would move patients into a nursing facility.  It just doesn't make any sense.

No, Dewines office threatened to pull funding from the nursing home, cause the Directors wouldn't take the patients from the hospital.  So they were forced to take in covid patients.

 

[Terminalxylem]

I'm starting to hear more of this.  We had a nasty situation last night that involved our neighbor lady - sitting in a lawn chair uninvited in our front yard - dropping in casual conversation that she and her husband (a nurse) are convinced they had the virus in Feb.  My wife - who is very calm normally - chewed her a new poop chute and had the lady leaving in tears.  Neither one of us believe they had the virus though I suppose absent a test we'll never know, but she was over at our house with her kids in late Feb, has been hanging around our front yard drinking beers on nice afternoon and only now informed us she thinks she had it?  She said it like you would "nice day outside, huh?". 

So....that friendship is likely over or at the very least tarnished.  My coworker thinks his family had it in Dec.  My boss and I challenged him on that claim but his wife told him they had it and she sells essential oils....who would know better than her?

This is maddening.  What are these folks hoping to attain by claiming they had the virus - self diagnosed, mind you - already?  

Justification to end sheltering at home and carry on with their lives.

 

[tri-man 47]

Again acknowledging the data is in no way perfect (nor maybe even ideal), but per covid worldometers, today was back to the levels of 2-3 days ago ...about 85,000 new cases and 6,000 deaths (yesterday popped up to 95K cases and 7K deaths).  Of note, still 10% growth in Turkey; India; Ireland ...higher percentages again in Russia and Peru.  

For the record, I'm very much a glass-half-full kind of guy.  But if pressed, I'd be more comfortable with an end-of-summer instead of beginning-of-summer loosening of restrictions.  And it really might be a natural effect.  I saw an article on SI where about 2/3rds of fans said they'd be uncomfortable attending an event until an antidote has been found.  We could reopen many aspects of the economy, but I suspect many folks would use the mindset of "no thanks, we're good" until it's more definitively all clear.  (Case in point: Current news is that a case of Ebola has occurred in the Democratic Republic of the Congo 42 days after the last survivor was found free of infection (42 days is the length of two incubation cycles)).

 

[-fish-]

this is really cool.  

reminds me of dig dug

 

[top dog]

No, Dewines office threatened to pull funding from the nursing home, cause the Directors wouldn't take the patients from the hospital.  So they were forced to take in covid patients.

Ok.  Now I'm understanding a bit.  Looks like Massachusetts and NY are already doing this.  https://www.forbes.com/sites/howardgleckman/2020/03/31/states-are-beginning-to-move-covid-19-patients-from-hospitals-to-nursing-facilities/#590697dd4401

So the issue is there is not enough beds and they are using nursing homes as an overflow.  Being in the industry, you obviously have a better understanding of the inner workings and the corporate politics.  What other options should be taken? I know the Cleveland area has been hit hard as well, but I haven't heard they are out of beds yet.  The Cleveland Clinic and UH seem to have done a good job expanding capacity and they control just about every hospital around here so maybe that is why.   

 

[Dr_Zaius]

Does anybody know when Germany will have results of its antibody test?  Supposedly they are randomly sampling the population.  I imagine that data should be extremely useful.

 

[shader]

Again acknowledging the data is in no way perfect (nor maybe even ideal), but per covid worldometers, today was back to the levels of 2-3 days ago ...about 85,000 new cases and 6,000 deaths (yesterday popped up to 95K cases and 7K deaths).  Of note, still 10% growth in Turkey; India; Ireland ...higher percentages again in Russia and Peru.  

For the record, I'm very much a glass-half-full kind of guy.  But if pressed, I'd be more comfortable with an end-of-summer instead of beginning-of-summer loosening of restrictions.  And it really might be a natural effect.  I saw an article on SI where about 2/3rds of fans said they'd be uncomfortable attending an event until an antidote has been found.  We could reopen many aspects of the economy, but I suspect many folks would use the mindset of "no thanks, we're good" until it's more definitively all clear.  (Case in point: Current news is that a case of Ebola has occurred in the Democratic Republic of the Congo 42 days after the last survivor was found free of infection (42 days is the length of two incubation cycles)).

Lately I’ve been looking at the “active cases” a lot more.  To me that’s a more important “peak number” when trying to figure out when to re-open the economy. That number is still rising in the USA.

FWIW, China has just reopened Wigan, and they didn’t do it until the active cases were WAY DOWN...

You can see the USA is still in a strong growth pattern on that stat. Italy is starting to slow down, and that’s clear as well.  For me, that’s an important stat, even though I recognize it’s not a perfect one.

 

[Nathan R. Jessep]

Lately I’ve been looking at the “active cases” a lot more.  To me that’s a more important “peak number” when trying to figure out when to re-open the economy. That number is still rising in the USA.

FWIW, China has just reopened Wigan, and they didn’t do it until the active cases were WAY DOWN...

You can see the USA is still in a strong growth pattern on that stat. Italy is starting to slow down, and that’s clear as well.  For me, that’s an important stat, even though I recognize it’s not a perfect one.

The issue with that is that is only taking the total cases, which in most cases is just a cumulative number and also susceptible to duplication (multiple tests on the same people), and subtracting the deaths.  So not really accounting for recoveries. I've asked our Health Dept here and so far the only answer anyone is getting about tracking recoveries is that they hope to in the future, but, basically, it's too hard to track right now. 

 

[bucksoh]

There is of course very little evidence.  The official first case flew into the USA January 15th.  I suppose it’s possible that the USA, the CDC, and the WHO are all lying.  
 

But at this point we won’t get anywhere arguing about it.  One day soon antibody tests will confirm the truth and we can move on.

Thing is people like you won't believe the antibody test anyway.

 

[NotSmart]

Yes you can text back and forth with your shopper while they are shopping.  My wife sends pictures of available bread choices, as an example.

Thanks, I was wondering if there's a way to communicate with them after the shopping is complete, e.g. to let them know that they should have done substitutions, like the earlier post was lamenting.

I probably wouldn't want to leave a comment like that in a public review or cause it to ding their rating, but I would like to let them know so they could get better.

 

[NotSmart]

I will post this again since no one responded to my "probably" too long of a post to read 2 pages ago and is the medical community believing their may be previous cases.

https://komonews.com/news/coronavirus/seattle-flu-study-allegedly-tested-samples-for-covid-19-against-federal-state-guidelines

Early in this thread, the CDC told a lab to stop testing for COVID in Seattle area (I believe it was the first week of the nursing home outbreak).  They closed a school immediately prior to the official shut down because a 17 year old tested positive with a non CDC approved test - (remember the CDC tests did not work at this time).  This needs to be investigated thoroughly because it sounds to me like some one at the CDC was covering their butt from the testing screw up. 

There is a very good NYT "The Daily" podcast episode about this situation.

I will link it up in a little while.

Here's The Daily episode that talks about that situation - search for Helen Chu if using the transcript:

Podcast

Transcript

 

[shader]

The issue with that is that is only taking the total cases, which in most cases is just a cumulative number and also susceptible to duplication (multiple tests on the same people), and subtracting the deaths.  So not really accounting for recoveries. I've asked our Health Dept here and so far the only answer anyone is getting about tracking recoveries is that they hope to in the future, but, basically, it's too hard to track right now. 

Yeah...it’s not perfect.  Might not have a lot of relevance.  

 

[huthut]

Thing is people like you won't believe the antibody test anyway.

What is there to believe when we have no data yet? Are you going to change your opinion if the test shows that the vast majority of people were not exposed to COVID-19 yet? I mean, we will get data, we just need to wait, so it is not like there will not be an answer. I hope most people are immune, but it seems dangerous to suggest that without evidence. 

 

[shader]

Thing is people like you won't believe the antibody test anyway.

I don’t know how I’ve given you that impression. When the data comes in on antibody tests, I’ll believe it 100%. I’m very much a data guy. 

 

[bucksoh]

Ok.  Now I'm understanding a bit.  Looks like Massachusetts and NY are already doing this.  https://www.forbes.com/sites/howardgleckman/2020/03/31/states-are-beginning-to-move-covid-19-patients-from-hospitals-to-nursing-facilities/#590697dd4401

So the issue is there is not enough beds and they are using nursing homes as an overflow.  Being in the industry, you obviously have a better understanding of the inner workings and the corporate politics.  What other options should be taken? I know the Cleveland area has been hit hard as well, but I haven't heard they are out of beds yet.  The Cleveland Clinic and UH seem to have done a good job expanding capacity and they control just about every hospital around here so maybe that is why.   

For me they can turn a few of these empty hotel rooms to tx., quarantine covid patients.

 

[bucksoh]

What is there to believe when we have no data yet? Are you going to change your opinion if the test shows that the vast majority of people were not exposed to COVID-19 yet? I mean, we will get data, we just need to wait, so it is not like there will not be an answer. I hope most people are immune, but it seems dangerous to suggest that without evidence. 

I don't have any data because no body is testing for antibodies.  But I'm at least open to  changing my opinion.  Something a lot of posters in here just don't want to do.

 

[lakerstan]

The Thunderbirds flew all over the entire Las Vegas valley a couple hours ago as a salute to the health care workers.  This isn’t my video, but there are several on YouTube now.  This is the kind of show we got.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JGfZ0ApmfMQ

I think some dust got in my eyes around the same time.  Ultra cool.

 

[parasaurolophus]

By any means necessary. No matter the cost. Billions and billions of dollars. 10K (?) American lives, hundreds of thousands of lives in other countries. It’s all worth it if we ensure we can never, ever have another attack on our country.

Theres plenty of room for debate on all of that, but the point is simply this: we were all in.

We didnt take away millions of people's jobs last I checked for 9/11. 

Seems like that makes the comparison, well, not a comparison.

 

[huthut]

I don't have any data because no body is testing for antibodies.  But I'm at least open to  changing my opinion.  Something a lot of posters in here just don't want to do.

The point I was getting at is that you have a lot of unwarranted confidence that the results of the antibody testing will look how you want it to look. Like I said earlier, I really hope you are right, but it seems irresponsible and dangerous to insinuate that actually the disease is not bad at all and everyone should just go back to work, which is the ultimate end result of the sort of partisan push to suggest that tons of people are immune - BEFORE we have any results back from antibody testing. 

 

[BobbyLayne]

We didnt take away millions of people's jobs last I checked for 9/11. 

Seems like that makes the comparison, well, not a comparison.

My recollection is we told people to go out and buy stuff (at least, post invasion.) Not exactly greatest generation type sacrifice.

But what can compare to the current situation? Nothing, honestly. Not the Great Depression.

But we did acquiesce to doing whatever it took to get the job done. And right now the entire world is saying half hearted, incremental change is not acceptable.

 

[Terminalxylem]

I'm not claiming I, or we, had this but man it's so coincidental that about 10 kids at the school, plus 3 in my house all had something that every doc said "I dont know, it's just a virus" meaning they tested for what they know and found nothing.  I need to add too that the 3 year old above had flu A and flu B prior and the other twin had flu A.  My son also had Flu b. Those were way different than whatever they had later.

A few points:

1. While it’s true doctors will often say “it’s just a virus” when they have no definitive diagnosis, it isn’t just because they’ve tested everything they know and come up with nothing. There are panels which check many respiratory viruses in addition to the flu, but they are rarely ordered. Why? They are prohibitively expensive, won’t change management (there aren’t antivirals for most viruses) and are pretty unpleasant for the test recipient.

2. Your experience with influenza varies according to the strain - don’t assume every flu will manifest the same. The more likely symptoms overlap quite a bit with COVID-19, but none are specific enough to distinguish one from the other.

3. It’s possible some of these unknown influenza-like illnesses were indeed COVID-19, but if it had been really circulating several months earlier than we’ve been led to believe, we’d surely see a big uptick in deaths due to ARDS/pneumonia of unclear etiology as well. The only mysterious respiratory illnesses I’ve heard about recently were associated with vaping, involving a very different demographic than C-19.

 

[BassNBrew]

This looks like a scene from China but it’s Philadelphia

Shock moment passenger is ‘dragged off Philadelphia bus by 10 cops for not wearing a face mask’

Les Steed

A PASSENGER was left angry and humiliated after he was filmed being dragged off a bus by cops apparently for not wearing a face mask.

The bus driver, who himself was not wearing a mask, had ordered the passenger to leave the bus in Philadelphia on Friday as he did not have a face mask on - but the man refused.

The man was carried out of the bus after officers snatched his legs off the ground

The "rule" had been put up as an unenforceable suggestion on the SEPTA website just the night before, leaving most passengers completely unaware.

The Philadelphia city transit system SEPTA has since said it would no longer enforce their short-lived policy requiring passengers to wear a facemask during the coronavirus pandemic.

It wasn’t the lack of a mask, it was the Santa custume

 

[NotSmart]

For anyone that makes it out of this Stay at Home period without contracting the virus, I don't understand why they would even consider going back to common social activities before there's a vaccine.

Activities like sporting events, theaters, theme parks, vacations - anywhere there are groupings of people that don't have well managed or realistically enforceable social distancing.

It's not a death sentence for sure to get the virus... well, probably not... like 99% of the time not. 

So there's only a 1% or so chance of dying.

But of course dying isn't the only bad outcome... there's also a non-trivial chance of being hospitalized (10%?)

And if hospitalized, a chance of needing ICU care.

And if ICU care is required, a chance of life long health consequences after the stay there.

If instead you are fortunate enough to have mild symptoms, then you may well transmit the virus to your family... will your wife have mild symptoms too?... your parents?...your children?

When we get started on the new normal, it's still going to be smart to make your best efforts to not contract C19 - which will require a pretty significantly new new normal.

But... I'm quite sure a lot of people will be willing to roll the dice in exchange to getting back to social activities.

 

[bucksoh]

The point I was getting at is that you have a lot of unwarranted confidence that the results of the antibody testing will look how you want it to look, without evidence. Like I said earlier, I really hope you are right, but it seems irresponsible and dangerous to insinuate that actually the disease is not bad at all and everyone should just go back to work, which is the ultimate end result of the sort of partisan push to suggest that tons of people are immune - BEFORE we have any results back from antibody testing. 

I have 23 years experience in respiratory,. This has been going on since at least December.  My foster kid can prove this once the antibody tests take place.  But what they are diagnosing it now is with x-ray.  Which he had early January.  I am not discounting anyone who has died from this.  It is irresponsible how the media portrayed this flu.  Antibodies testing will prove this, and if it doesn't I will admit I'm wrong.  But dismissing people who have been in the field for a long time.  And believing posters who aren't Drs. (Terminx, etc)Or in the field is even more foolish.   Never believe the who and cdc they say the same thing every 1-3 years, the only thing different about this is the media has picked it up from day one.  Very dangerous to believe the media in times like these.   Also I had this in February and while it was bad because of underlying conditions one being I'm a day Fxxx., Severe back pain, and arthritis.  I got through it.  Antibody testing will prove this.

 

[Terminalxylem]

for the "I think I had it" crew, just something to point out from my own data analysis here...

I've been tracking our numbers (in LA) for several weeks now, and at this time, we are among the leaders in testing per capita in the USA, and our positive-cases-to-number-of-tests-completed is 20%, where it has been hovering for almost a week now, with large numbers of tests coming in daily. Now there are some outliers of course, with some of those probably being contact tracing, medical professionals, government offices, false negatives, etc. but still, that means 80% of people tested did NOT have Covid-19, but rather had something else that displayed similar symptoms. Whether it was a severe cold, some strain of flu, or some as of yet unidentified virus (other coronavirus strains even). 

Just food for thought. 

Stay safe, y'all. Cheers! :salute: 

To be fair, that test only looks for acute infection, and would not exclude the possibility of immunity from prior infection.

I think the better argument is absence of an earlier spike in severe pneumonia/ARDS. But the Stanford herd immunity guy is taking huge liberties in assuming 50-70% of CA 40 million have been infected to achieve herd immunity, when we’re nowhere near that number after several months testing worldwide.

 

[proteus126]

I don’t know how I’ve given you that impression. When the data comes in on antibody tests, I’ll believe it 100%. I’m very much a data guy. 

I'm worried they will screw up the antibody testing like they did (and are still doing) the infection testing.  We'll be told "plenty available next week" but will get instead a bunch of posters telling how they couldn't get one.

 

[beer 30]

but his wife told him they had it and she sells essential oils....who would know better than her?  

Karen...Karen would know better than her.

A few days ago I posted about a trip I took to Home Depot and how it was cool people were social distancing, 2 out of 3 wearing masks, doing all the right stuff. Well yesterday I went to the local grocery store and it's like back to February. Not as many people and still, for the most part, socially distancing but some obviously not caring. And along with myself, probably 6 people out of the 50 or so in the store with masks on. 1 grocery store employee with a mask on. I fear with the optimistic news this week of a lesser anticipated death rate people feel like we're done with this and can get back to business as usual. Small sample size but still disappointing.

 

[sho nuff]

The Thunderbirds flew all over the entire Las Vegas valley a couple hours ago as a salute to the health care workers.  This isn’t my video, but there are several on YouTube now.  This is the kind of show we got.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JGfZ0ApmfMQ

I think some dust got in my eyes around the same time.  Ultra cool.

Thats what they wanted you to think...as they spray their Corona Chemtrails.

And yeah always love seeing that precision flying.  Super cool

 

[proteus126]

We didnt take away millions of people's jobs last I checked for 9/11.

Tens of millions, rather soon.

 

[Terminalxylem]

Not at all what people are saying. Every doctor (even the ones fearing the worst) are using the flu as scale. That's what people are doing here. It's about how every year we have something that hospitals treat in waves to varying degree. The flu season is spread over 5-6 months. If it turns out that CV19 was spread over those same months, it becomes a much more scale-able virus. 

Sure doesn’t seem readily scalable in Italy, NYC and elsewhere.

 

[adonis]

Spoke with the priest in our ~1,000 person congregation in mid January. We lost about 2% of the congregation, about 20 people, mostly old, between December and mid January. Clearly it wouldn't have been COVID-19, as it would have spread early here, but there was something that burned through here -- or we simply had an anomalous % of natural deaths in a 6 weeks.

With 3 kids, I'm no stranger to being sick during the winter season.

But before the covid pandemic, before Wuhan, I was noting to friends and family that this year was an unusual year of sickness.

Stomach bugs, not abnormal, hit twice as hard this winter.  Then we had a mystery virus that went around for 3-4 weeks, hitting both myself, my wife, and each kid a week apart.

Symptoms included a day of bad stomach aches, vomiting, 102 degree fever, and in another day...completely gone.  Strangest thing.

On top of the normal colds - we all got of flu shots and were lucky not to catch anything more serious, but in 8 years of having kids...this was an unusual season of sickness.  Flu went around so bad our dayschool shut down for a four day weekend to completely disinfect.  That is incredibly unusual - schools were doing similar things.

 

[Redwes25]

I would suggest this article and accompanying video be read and watched by everyone. I can’t imagine anyone suggesting loosening restrictions after reading and watching this. 
 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/11/opinion/sunday/coronavirus-hospitals-bronx.html

 

[bucksoh]

With 3 kids, I'm no stranger to being sick during the winter season.

But before the covid pandemic, before Wuhan, I was noting to friends and family that this year was an unusual year of sickness.

Stomach bugs, not abnormal, hit twice as hard this winter.  Then we had a mystery virus that went around for 3-4 weeks, hitting both myself, my wife, and each kid a week apart.

Symptoms included a day of bad stomach aches, vomiting, 102 degree fever, and in another day...completely gone.  Strangest thing.

On top of the normal colds - we all got of flu shots and were lucky not to catch anything more serious, but in 8 years of having kids...this was an unusual season of sickness.  Flu went around so bad our dayschool shut down for a four day weekend to completely disinfect.  That is incredibly unusual - schools were doing similar things.

That was probably just the flu, mine lasted over three weeks.

 

[adonis]

That was probably just the flu, mine lasted over three weeks.

Each person that got sick was sick acutely for a day, spike in fever, then within 36 hours was completely fine.  A week goes by, the next person in the family gets it.  Same symptoms, same short period of time.  Doctor visit, says its' a virus and it'll pass.

That was unusual for us.  Again, we've had kids in the house for 8 years, and have 3 now.  This ain't our first rodeo.  Also, day schools never shut down in our area, as well as some schools, due to high volume of flu.  That, also, was unusual.

 

[Redwes25]

I have 23 years experience in respiratory,. This has been going on since at least December.  My foster kid can prove this once the antibody tests take place.  But what they are diagnosing it now is with x-ray.  Which he had early January.  I am not discounting anyone who has died from this.  It is irresponsible how the media portrayed this flu.  Antibodies testing will prove this, and if it doesn't I will admit I'm wrong.  But dismissing people who have been in the field for a long time.  And believing posters who aren't Drs. (Terminx, etc)Or in the field is even more foolish.   Never believe the who and cdc they say the same thing every 1-3 years, the only thing different about this is the media has picked it up from day one.  Very dangerous to believe the media in times like these.   Also I had this in February and while it was bad because of underlying conditions one being I'm a day Fxxx., Severe back pain, and arthritis.  I got through it.  Antibody testing will prove this.

I don’t know who you are but can’t believe you are a HCW and believe this as I have personally spoken to friends who are in NY and northern NJ and say exact opposite  (my friend who is an infectious disease doctor and my friend who is a respiratory therapist). Go ahead and post what you want but I refuse to believe you are an actual HCW who is seeing COVID patients. You can refuse to believe me but I don’t care what you think.

 

[Nugget]

To be fair, the headlines are turning the Stanford study into a suggestion of herd immunity. In actuality the primary point of the study is to say that this looks like it's been here for sure by December and possibly as early as November. Which seems to be typical of both sides when trying to discredit the other. Take their farthest reaching suggestion and make that it's convenient conclusion. If California was hit hard by something in December and it turns out it was CV19, and even more so that it's led to herd immunity matching the low current numbers, it wouldn't be some huge surprise.

What would be a an astoundingly, outrageous surprise would be something this contagious taking 4 months to travel from China to the U.S.

Based on your timeline, it sounds like it took less than 4 weeks to travel from California to Wuhan.  

 

[NotSmart]

I have 23 years experience in respiratory,. This has been going on since at least December.  My foster kid can prove this once the antibody tests take place.  But what they are diagnosing it now is with x-ray.  Which he had early January.  I am not discounting anyone who has died from this.  It is irresponsible how the media portrayed this flu.  Antibodies testing will prove this, and if it doesn't I will admit I'm wrong.  But dismissing people who have been in the field for a long time.  And believing posters who aren't Drs. (Terminx, etc)Or in the field is even more foolish.   Never believe the who and cdc they say the same thing every 1-3 years, the only thing different about this is the media has picked it up from day one.  Very dangerous to believe the media in times like these.   Also I had this in February and while it was bad because of underlying conditions one being I'm a day Fxxx., Severe back pain, and arthritis.  I got through it.  Antibody testing will prove this.

C19 aside, God bless you for being a foster parent - you have my sincere respect for the difference you are making in those kids lives.

Thanks man.

 

[JaxBill]

Florida new cases and deaths by day

4/3 - 1260 , 26

4/4 - 1277,  25

4/5-  805,  26

4/6 - 1279, 33

4/7 - 1118, 42

4/8 - 951,  27

4/9 - 1128, 48

4/10 - 1142, 48

4/11 - 1018, 27

jogging in place? (in jorts and crocs)

 

[T J]

I'm starting to hear more of this.  We had a nasty situation last night that involved our neighbor lady - sitting in a lawn chair uninvited in our front yard - dropping in casual conversation that she and her husband (a nurse) are convinced they had the virus in Feb.  My wife - who is very calm normally - chewed her a new poop chute and had the lady leaving in tears.  Neither one of us believe they had the virus though I suppose absent a test we'll never know, but she was over at our house with her kids in late Feb, has been hanging around our front yard drinking beers on nice afternoon and only now informed us she thinks she had it?  She said it like you would "nice day outside, huh?". 

So....that friendship is likely over or at the very least tarnished.  My coworker thinks his family had it in Dec.  My boss and I challenged him on that claim but his wife told him they had it and she sells essential oils....who would know better than her?

This is maddening.  What are these folks hoping to attain by claiming they had the virus - self diagnosed, mind you - already?  

So where do you and/or your wife get off ripping her a new one? That’s on you.  

edit - should clarify - I think you were out of line if you she got ripped simply  for thinking she had it. If it was because she didn’t mention it, still not worth chewing her out, but more understandable. 

 

[Terminalxylem]

And I'd once again simply say, sharing the possibility of the other side, also backed by specialists, doctors, and experts (not exclusive to one side) is not dangerous. It's a message board. We are but a small segment of the world, going through this and consuming info in different ways. No one who may believe the same as me, that this is a bad virus which needs more attention but not shut downs, is running out and licking hand rails as I often say. They just want to hear the less reported but just as credible science that says this won't have to keep us locked up in our homes for many more months. To not share that side of the story, when it could very well wind up being true, would be nonsensical. 

I really don't know why you feel the two sides need to be separated and the info kept from either side. I've never understood that.

We all all want to hear this will be over soon, but wanting isn't enough.

While the opinions Stanford guy/you've expressed are certainly less reported, the science is nowhere near as credible as that presented by the mainstream scientific community. When his data are published and antibody tests are readily available, we can hopefully revise the state of the science.

 

[JaxBill]

Sorry if this is old but Florida dairy farmers are dumping milk

 

[adonis]

I have 23 years experience in respiratory,. This has been going on since at least December.  My foster kid can prove this once the antibody tests take place.  But what they are diagnosing it now is with x-ray.  Which he had early January.  I am not discounting anyone who has died from this.  It is irresponsible how the media portrayed this flu.  Antibodies testing will prove this, and if it doesn't I will admit I'm wrong.  But dismissing people who have been in the field for a long time.  And believing posters who aren't Drs. (Terminx, etc)Or in the field is even more foolish.   Never believe the who and cdc they say the same thing every 1-3 years, the only thing different about this is the media has picked it up from day one.  Very dangerous to believe the media in times like these.   Also I had this in February and while it was bad because of underlying conditions one being I'm a day Fxxx., Severe back pain, and arthritis.  I got through it.  Antibody testing will prove this.

 Seems a little odd to say this.

Hospitals are being overrun, deaths are climbing.

Following simple exponential growth of the spread of this thing, if it was out in December, what's happening now would've happened earlier, no?  I mean, society was WIDE open then.  Schools, work, stores, etc.  The spread, exponential, from 1 person to tens of thousands, would be huge by then, and hospitals would've been being overrun pretty early on.

It seems clear, not from the perspective of a doctor or medical expert, but from the perspective of a highly educated science person who excelled at math, that if you back out the results we're seeing now in hospitals, to the earliest spread of the disease, that the media has gotten this mostly correct.  The hype was justified, shutdowns were warranted, and despite 2k dying daily in the US from this, had we not shutdown, things would be tons worse, no?

I mean, again, not discounting your medical expertise, but just look at the data.  Look at the hospitals being overrun with cases at precisely the time predicted, based on the data being reported in the media.

I've been saying this has been an unusually virulent season of sickness, but to suggest the MSM has been misleading us on this is to ignore the data, in my opinion.  One doesn't need 23 years experience in respiratory to be able to look at the data and draw conclusions.

What am I missing?

 

[shader]

I would suggest this article and accompanying video be read and watched by everyone. I can’t imagine anyone suggesting loosening restrictions after reading and watching this. 
 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/11/opinion/sunday/coronavirus-hospitals-bronx.html

Wow that was sad

 

[adonis]

Sorry if this is old but Florida dairy farmers are dumping milk

Opening line of my new novel:

This was the year where the rivers ran white, where mountains, not haze, were seen, and where the fools governed instead of the wise.

 

[Mr Anonymous]

For anyone that makes it out of this Stay at Home period without contracting the virus, I don't understand why they would even consider going back to common social activities before there's a vaccine.

Activities like sporting events, theaters, theme parks, vacations - anywhere there are groupings of people that don't have well managed or realistically enforceable social distancing.

It's not a death sentence for sure to get the virus... well, probably not... like 99% of the time not. 

So there's only a 1% or so chance of dying.

But of course dying isn't the only bad outcome... there's also a non-trivial chance of being hospitalized (10%?)

And if hospitalized, a chance of needing ICU care.

And if ICU care is required, a chance of life long health consequences after the stay there.

If instead you are fortunate enough to have mild symptoms, then you may well transmit the virus to your family... will your wife have mild symptoms too?... your parents?...your children?

When we get started on the new normal, it's still going to be smart to make your best efforts to not contract C19 - which will require a pretty significantly new new normal.

But... I'm quite sure a lot of people will be willing to roll the dice in exchange to getting back to social activities.

Clarifying just a little...

1% of the the entire US population isn't going to die from this. We need to hit 327,000 deaths in the U.S. to hit 1% and that still wouldn't equal a 1% chance of dying for most people.

If you get it, there looks to be a 1% chance of dying from it when accounting for the entire group of people who tested positive. And that number could drop further by half as further testing is done. And then finally that number further drops if you're healthy, young, and don't have underlying conditions. 

Not sure if you were saying there's a 1 in 100 chance of dying from coronavirus once we return to normal life, but yeah it's not even close to that. And if you're healthy the chance is as negligible as you're chances of falling down the stairs and dying. Your chances of dying in a car accident are far times greater. 

 

[shader]

Clarifying just a little...

1% of the the entire US population isn't going to die from this. We need to hit 327,000 deaths in the U.S. to hit 1% and that still wouldn't equal a 1% chance of dying for most people.

If you get it, there looks to be a 1% chance of dying from it when accounting for the entire group of people who tested positive. And that number could drop further by half as further testing is done. And then finally that number further drops if you're healthy, young, and don't have underlying conditions. 

Not sure if you were saying there's a 1 in 100 chance of dying from coronavirus once we return to normal life, but yeah it's not even close to that. And if you're healthy the chance is as negligible as you're chances of falling down the stairs and dying. Your chances of dying in a car accident are far times greater. 

1% of the US population is 3M+

 

[bentley]

Sorry if this is old but Florida dairy farmers are dumping milk

Why isn’t this stuff going to food banks?

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

And believing posters who aren't Drs. (Terminx, etc)Or in the field is even more foolish.   

You may need to update your notebook GB.

 

[Mr Anonymous]

 Seems a little odd to say this.

Hospitals are being overrun, deaths are climbing.

Following simple exponential growth of the spread of this thing, if it was out in December, what's happening now would've happened earlier, no?  I mean, society was WIDE open then.  Schools, work, stores, etc.  The spread, exponential, from 1 person to tens of thousands, would be huge by then, and hospitals would've been being overrun pretty early on.

It seems clear, not from the perspective of a doctor or medical expert, but from the perspective of a highly educated science person who excelled at math, that if you back out the results we're seeing now in hospitals, to the earliest spread of the disease, that the media has gotten this mostly correct.  The hype was justified, shutdowns were warranted, and despite 2k dying daily in the US from this, had we not shutdown, things would be tons worse, no?

I mean, again, not discounting your medical expertise, but just look at the data.  Look at the hospitals being overrun with cases at precisely the time predicted, based on the data being reported in the media.

I've been saying this has been an unusually virulent season of sickness, but to suggest the MSM has been misleading us on this is to ignore the data, in my opinion.  One doesn't need 23 years experience in respiratory to be able to look at the data and draw conclusions.

What am I missing?

You'd be missing the stories from hospitals in places like California, Washington, and Nevada that had spikes in people coming through their doors during the months of December and January. It didn't make news because the doctors and nurses there thought they were seeing a bad flu season. It seems as though many people aren't aware the hospitals go through consecutive days, even weeks when they're seeing a lot more patients during the winter months having trouble with cold and flu. It does happen. Even to the extent that they start treating people in hallways and waiting rooms. The difference - the news vans aren't parked out front and a huge spotlight isn't on the hospital. 

 

[Terminalxylem]

Thing is people like you won't believe the antibody test anyway.

Since you seem pretty comfortable in your medical knowledge, can you explain how you'd interpret antibody testing? I'd like to know if you're talking about IgM, IgG, or both - and don't forget to include a reminder how disease prevalence influences positive predictive value.

If that's above your pay grade, a laughing emoji will suffice.