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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (23 Viewers)

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NotSmart said:
There have been a lot of people who entered this thread with that opinion, and later changed it when they became more educated about why the entire world is reacting the way it is about C19.
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Oh I get it. I've been locked in with my family for 2 weeks in complete isolation as I want to protect them the best I can. However, as an owner of a 26 year old small business who will be crushed by a prolonged economic shutdown, there will come a point where I'll be worth more dead than alive to my family and that's quite depressing.

 
bradyfan said:
We have total 3031 tested and total 328 positive in MA.  I assume many are contacts of travel related or person-to-person spread cases.
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https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/2/d/e/2PACX-1vRwAqp96T9sYYq2-i7Tj0pvTf6XVHjDSMIKBdZHXiCGGdNC0ypEU9NbngS8mxea55JuCFuua1MUeOj5/pubhtml#

It's got you at 4752 tests and 525 positive.     Close to that 12%.      Now who is getting all of these tests?    People that show up at the hospital saying they can't breathe and Marcus Smart?    Or is it more random?   

 
DrJ said:
Now I'm going to assume those figures are biased somewhat towards people that already had symptoms.   So random population is gonna be lower, but that's 12% positive out of all tests.     That would put us around 37 million Americans.     Let's assume that randomly it's only 1/10 of that, so 3.7....   
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Most Americans aren’t sick. Right now we only test sick people and people that show coronavirus symptoms.

 
ericttspikes said:
Oh I get it. I've been locked in with my family for 2 weeks in complete isolation as I want to protect them the best I can. However, as an owner of a 26 year old small business who will be crushed by a prolonged economic shutdown, there will come a point where I'll be worth more dead than alive to my family and that's quite depressing.
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It's heartbreaking seeing the damage being done to businesses and workers.

Someday it's very likely your sons will thank you for taking it seriously when so many didn't.

 
shader said:
Most Americans aren’t sick. Right now we only test sick people and people that show coronavirus symptoms.
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Alright, that's what I figured...   so I'd put general population way lower.      But let's say that general population is even .3% compared to 12%, which would be 40 times lower - that's a million people.   

 
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Alex P Keaton said:
Went for a walk with the wife this afternoon.  Saw three different groups of 10-15 teenagers playing basketball and football.  Not a care in the world.  Social distancing hasn’t taken effect yet.
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I'm amazed that's still happening.  It's social suicide in my town.  That happened in a few instances and various Karens went bananas about it on the Facebook group for parents in our town.   

 
Caesar said:
Its been a dozen hours since I read it, and I am still not sure I was fully awake.  Grace Under Pressure was right.  The data and charts are interesting, and the breakdown sure makes it look like there is nothing we can do but let it run its course.  The greatest threat of community transmission has been in closely confined spaces, like in a home, family member to family member.  This can even be seen in that heartbreaking story about a family that had 3?  4?  people die from this.

But, as GUP said, the conclusions were very aggressive, which made the whole article seem agenda driven, instead of data driven, which was the whole basis of the first 28 minutes of the read.  He came on way too strong at the end, and almost seemed pissed off that anybody could see it any different.  At least, that's how I took it. 

interesting data and charts.  I still think it was worth the read.  Maybe skip the last two paragraphs the way you should skip the last two seasons of Dexter.
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The latitude/weather data was very interesting.

Arizona shocks the heck out of me so far with their cases. I mean they had the 5th case in the US dating back to january. They have lots of elderly people and they only have one death so far. 

 
DrJ said:
https://www.zdnet.com/article/tracking-the-real-us-coronavirus-testing-numbers-with-open-source/

And yeah, this seems to be the best current source for this and they confirm the above numbers.    Just seems hard to believe based on this that there aren't millions running around with this today.
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Those numbers don’t confirm your theories.

There are many other countries in the world testing far more comprehensively than the USA. 

If millions of people were “running around with this”, we’d see far more icu visits, hospital visits, and deaths.

The basis for your whole argument is that you think this is overblown.  Because you think that, you assume there must be millions of people that have it.  Your error is that your default stance on the issue is wrong, so you’re having to twist numbers and make assumptions regarding the total numbers.  

 
parasaurolophus said:
The latitude/weather data was very interesting.

Arizona shocks the heck out of me so far with their cases. I mean they had the 5th case in the US dating back to january. They have lots of elderly people and they only have one death so far. 
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I don’t understand why this isn’t tearing through India, Bangladesh, large chunks of Africa, etc. Major 3rd world urban centers where people live on top of each other with very poor sanitation and terrible health care. It should be a catastrophe there. And maybe it will be, it just hasn’t ramped up yet there.  Or maybe it won’t. 

 
shader said:
Those numbers don’t confirm your theories.

There are many other countries in the world testing far more comprehensively than the USA. 

If millions of people were “running around with this”, we’d see far more icu visits, hospital visits, and deaths.

The basis for your whole argument is that you think this is overblown.  Because you think that, you assume there must be millions of people that have it.  Your error is that your default stance on the issue is wrong, so you’re having to twist numbers and make assumptions regarding the total numbers.  
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Not necessarily, it could mean that most people are asymptomatic.    You have no real idea either.     Everyone is making wild guesses, mine just happen to be different than yours.   

 
DrJ said:
Alright, that's what I figured...   so I'd put general population way lower.      But let's say that general population is even .3% compared to 12%, which would be 40 times lower - that's a million people.   
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You can’t guess a rate for the general population that hasn’t yet been exposed.  The virus spreads based on exposure. The USA is a huge place. The virus has outcomes that are predictable worldwide. There literally cannot be 2 million people with this virus because we aren’t seeing death tolls in the thousands and hospital visits that are overwhelming the country.

 
shader said:
You can’t guess a rate for the general population that hasn’t yet been exposed.  The virus spreads based on exposure. The USA is a huge place. The virus has outcomes that are predictable worldwide. There literally cannot be 2 million people with this virus because we aren’t seeing death tolls in the thousands and hospital visits that are overwhelming the country.
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You have no idea how much of the general population has and hasn't been exposed since there's people that can walk around having it and have no clue.

It's not impossible that I have corona right now, as I type this.   

 
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DrJ said:
Not necessarily, it could mean that most people are asymptomatic.    You have no real idea either.     Everyone is making wild guesses, mine just happen to be different than yours.   
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No, yours are based on your gut feel.  My guesses are based on what’s happened around the world. The assumption that most people are asymptomatic wasn’t true in China and South Korea.   As proof of that, both of those countries halted the virus. They could not have halted the virus had there been a huge number of asymptomatic people.

 
shader said:
No, yours are based on your gut feel.  My guesses are based on what’s happened around the world. The assumption that most people are asymptomatic wasn’t true in China and South Korea.   As proof of that, both of those countries halted the virus. They could not have halted the virus had there been a huge number of asymptomatic people.
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Sure you can - you shut down the economy and implement martial law.    Then your bases are covered either way.  

 
DrJ said:
You have no idea how much of the general population has and hasn't been exposed since there's people that can walk around having it and have no clue.   
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Of course I don’t know the exact amount.  But using the data we have, I can eliminate guesses that don’t fit the data, such as your guess.

 
parasaurolophus said:
The latitude/weather data was very interesting.

Arizona shocks the heck out of me so far with their cases. I mean they had the 5th case in the US dating back to january. They have lots of elderly people and they only have one death so far. 
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And as far as I remember, they haven't really put down any restrictions like other states.   It may not totally kill it, but it might slow down the threat of community spread.  it also talks about the half life of the virus, which I thought has potential to be much more important than just how long it "lives" on a surface.

 
DrJ said:
Sure you can - you shut down the economy and implement martial law.    Then your bases are covered either way.  
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Please do some research before you come in here running your mouth with insane conspiracy theories.  We are way past this. 

 
DrJ said:
Not really...    you'd need a lot more data to eliminate my guess.  
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Not at all, I’ve provided plenty of things that would eliminate your guess thus far and you haven’t addressed a single one.  You have a set of beliefs and you don’t want to change them.

 
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shader said:
Please do some research before you come in here running your mouth with insane conspiracy theories.  We are way past this. 
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So far they haven't locked down my ability to post on internet forums.... yet.     So you'll just have to deal with it for now.  

 
Otis said:
I'm amazed that's still happening.  It's social suicide in my town.  That happened in a few instances and various Karens went bananas about it on the Facebook group for parents in our town.   
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Definitely has been a big topic amongst local wives.  Guys just say “hey kids, stay in the damn house” and the kids don’t leave.  Women in this area (Evanston IL) like to have long conversations with kids about pros/cons.....and then after being worn down by the conversation, they lose focus and miss the fact that their kids snuck out the door after they turned their backs.  Some seriously lazy/crappy parenting amongst the “limo liberal” set near us.

 
So many weird things involving this. How do over 100 of the 175 attendees of a conference catch it? I mean what the heck were they doing at that conference?

I can only find a report of one employee from the hotel where the conference was held. But the globe still has covid coverage blocked and I am at my limit.

At first glance it seems like it is insanely contagious based on so many people from one conference getting it. But then when you look at the lack of cases among hotel employees and the fact that some of the attendees that tested positive eventually went to a different conference a week after the biogen one, yet there are no new cases from that conference.

So then you get back to wtf kind of trust building exercises were they doing?!?

 
Leroy Hoard said:
When I take a walk I carry a custom made 6 foot ruler that I poke at people who get too close to me.
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Got sent a pic yesterday of a lady shopping in a grocery store who brought a tape measure and had it out 6 feet, to ward off intruders.  Figured it was from the internet, so I asked if she took the pic, she said yes.  This was outside of Denver.

 
parasaurolophus said:
So many weird things involving this. How do over 100 of the 175 attendees of a conference catch it? I mean what the heck were they doing at that conference?

I can only find a report of one employee from the hotel where the conference was held. But the globe still has covid coverage blocked and I am at my limit.

At first glance it seems like it is insanely contagious based on so many people from one conference getting it. But then when you look at the lack of cases among hotel employees and the fact that some of the attendees that tested positive eventually went to a different conference a week after the biogen one, yet there are no new cases from that conference.

So then you get back to wtf kind of trust building exercises were they doing?!?
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A Super Spreader maybe?

 
parasaurolophus said:
So many weird things involving this. How do over 100 of the 175 attendees of a conference catch it? I mean what the heck were they doing at that conference?

I can only find a report of one employee from the hotel where the conference was held. But the globe still has covid coverage blocked and I am at my limit.

At first glance it seems like it is insanely contagious based on so many people from one conference getting it. But then when you look at the lack of cases among hotel employees and the fact that some of the attendees that tested positive eventually went to a different conference a week after the biogen one, yet there are no new cases from that conference.

So then you get back to wtf kind of trust building exercises were they doing?!?
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Lots of small meetings, sharing pens, handshakes, whiteboard SCRUM meetings. 

Oh and orgies.

 
A note for joggers: I’m also of the belief exercise is important. However, when you are passing people from behind it’s on you not to exhale heavily about a foot from face. TIA

 
The General said:
I don’t for sure.

All the experts though seem to be saying we are not overreacting and that we are way behind.
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There are no experts. NONE. 

There are literally no people on this planet that can fully predict the overall impact of economic disaster and compare it to the current medical situation across a country like the US.

It would take a complete understanding of medical care in each state, major city, etc. It would also mean that they have to understand exactly how it spreads, weather, etc. They would also have to know how shutdowns would affect them.

Of course medical experts are saying locking it down and limiting contact is the best course of action from a purely medical perspective. That part is obvious. I mean what else would they ever say?

Media: Hey Mr. Doctor do you think when an illness is spreading through a community it is best for people to practice good hygiene and avoid contact?

Dr: No way man, I think the more sick the merrier. Everybody hug it out! Here is my phone number! Get sick and come get a lollipop. I take all insurance! 

 
The General said:
A note for joggers: I’m also of the belief exercise is important. However, when you are passing people from behind it’s on you not to exhale heavily about a foot from face. TIA
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I got passed by a high school girl yesterday. I was on an offstreet path. Not only did she pass me in the road. She went all the way to the other side of the road. Then she came back on the path. 

 
parasaurolophus said:
There are no experts. NONE. 

There are literally no people on this planet that can fully predict the overall impact of economic disaster and compare it to the current medical situation across a country like the US.

It would take a complete understanding of medical care in each state, major city, etc. It would also mean that they have to understand exactly how it spreads, weather, etc. They would also have to know how shutdowns would affect them.

Of course medical experts are saying locking it down and limiting contact is the best course of action from a purely medical perspective. That part is obvious. I mean what else would they ever say?

Media: Hey Mr. Doctor do you think when an illness is spreading through a community it is best for people to practice good hygiene and avoid contact?

Dr: No way man, I think the more sick the merrier. Everybody hug it out! Here is my phone number! Get sick and come get a lollipop. I take all insurance! 
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As for experts I go with Fauci. He’s saying stay home. If you can guarantee will won’t have failure of hospitals then let’s go with that plan.

Financial experts can help us figure how to get the financial part later.

 
parasaurolophus said:
I got passed by a high school girl yesterday. I was on an offstreet path. Not only did she pass me in the road. She went all the way to the other side of the road. Then she came back on the path. 
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Proper jogging.

Not proper way: run past someone about a foot from them sounding as if you are hyperventilating.

 
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