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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (13 Viewers)
- Thread starter Big League Chew
- Start date
- Status
Chemical X
Footballguy
You may want people to get back to normal, but what will be the new normal? Do I really need that overpriced meal out? Do I really need that ballgame with 40k other filthy people? Do I need that cruise, that trip to Italy, anything? Is normal now that the entire tourism industry is gutted, both here and abroad? That we lose 70% of restaurants? That we just decide to become an online society?
tamales
Footballguy
Back in December, a bunch of kids in my son's school got sick including my son. The school had 70% attendance that week. School was still taught and attendance returned to normal levels the following week. I imagine this would be no different. Kids barely have symptoms anyway. Life has to go on
We have to live with this. No amount of quarantine will change those issues.
wazoo11
Footballguy
Mr Anonymous
Footballguy
fatguyinalittlecoat
Footballguy
Seems sensible. It's a pretty nutty semester, I'm not sure that kids should be punished if they don't have a good home environment for studying, etc.
tamales
Footballguy
It will be up to each individual to decide. All I know is I've been stuck inside for a week (except for bagelgate) and I can tell you I would definitely start doing those things again ASAP. IMO this is no way to live. My son needs an education, I need to be with my work colleagues, and my son needs to be involved in sports again. This is no way to live. Just wash your hands, cover your mouth, stay home when sick, and don't touch your face. All these things we should be doing anyway.
beer 30
Footballguy
We've seen throughout this thread how people are ignoring the social distancing warnings. When the government steps in it happens but not nearly enough are doing it so I don't necessarily agree with your bolded statement.
Yes we are making the effort but not to the extent that it will stop what we know is coming. Further complicating things are leaders getting on TV everyday downplaying the severity of the problem and espousing getting people back to work in 2 weeks. Watch what happens in China as they go back to life after 2 solid months of being locked down, truly locked down. I fully expect to see and have some anecdotal stuff already pointing to another round of outbreaks.
Mr Anonymous
Footballguy
Doctor in India sharing their country's current treatment protocol...
https://twitter.com/DrGvenkatasai/status/1241870609593724928
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ETwCumMVAAEzb3b?format=jpg&name=large
Hydroxychloroquine being used to treat moderate to severe cases
https://twitter.com/DrGvenkatasai/status/1241870609593724928
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ETwCumMVAAEzb3b?format=jpg&name=large
Hydroxychloroquine being used to treat moderate to severe cases
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tamales
Footballguy
Chemical X
Footballguy
I agree that this is no way to live, but I don't trust anyone to wash their hands, cover their mouths, stay home if/when sick and not touch faces. Not at this point with cases still rising. Will I get there again, yeah. When, who knows......but I will probably wait 6-12 months after given the "green light", so to speak. I mean, i'll get on that cruise leaving Rome going to Greece at some point, but is it a necessity right now? Next year.......maybe.
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
But what if there was almost no evidence of kids bringing this home to their families from school?
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tamales
Footballguy
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
This is a very good idea under the circumstances, and I've lobbied for my university to at least give students the option of switching to pass/fail. Our students did not sign up for online instruction, and most of our newly-online classes are slapped together with the academic equivalents of duct tape and bailing wire. Sticking with regular letter grades just amplifies the stress inherent in this sort of situation.
I say that as somebody who used to give out Cs and Ds like candy when I was still teaching. (I'm in administration now). I'm mostly opposed to pass/fail under normal conditions, but this isn't normal.
Pipes
Footballguy
Based on how people have been acting as recently as this past weekend. I don't think much changes after this is done. A bunch of stores/restaurants will not survive but people will eventually get back to traveling, attending ballgames, concerts, etc..
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Do we know that? That’s fair, even if it seems counterintuitive. I worked at a school that a norovorus outbreak and it was crazy how quickly that thing spread.
Chemical X
Footballguy
I have no kids, but in this area, all parents do is complain about everything. Can you imagine a kid getting sick because a school opened too soon? Holy law suit batman.......just a reality.
tamales
Footballguy
I get that. It will definitely be a personal decision and on a case by case basis. In other words, it might take an individual 12 months to feel safe on a cruise again but only one month to go out to a restaurant.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
And schools have to deal with attendance. How many parents would keep their kids home? If a certain percentage of students are absent, it doesn’t even legally count as a school day.
tamales
Footballguy
Ilov80s
Footballguy
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
We don't know much of anything for sure, but I don't think we are too far from having these answers.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Closed for 2 days. Thurs and Friday plus the weekend. Had to have it professionally cleaned and disinfected plus get approval from the State to re-open. It was a mess, there was vomit everywhere as when kids/staff started getting sick there weren’t enough toilets and trash cans for everyone.
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Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
It's becoming obvious that we're not just going to botch the beginning of this, we're going to botch it from start to finish.
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tamales
Footballguy
Politician Spock
Footballguy
What you guys are talking about is the velocity of money. Unless 100% of the population goes back to spending the way they were weeks ago, the velocity of money is slower than it was. The questions are 1) how much slower; and 2) when will it return to what it once was.
1) is hard to answer. 2 is easier to answer given the answer is years. Anyone who thinks it is weeks or months is delusional.
1) is hard to answer. 2 is easier to answer given the answer is years. Anyone who thinks it is weeks or months is delusional.
tamales
Footballguy
Chemical X
Footballguy
That's the thing we won't be able to know. Social behavior. Some people wont care, some people will overreact and some will be on the fence. Me personally? I've always been wary about the cleanliness of restaurants and this doesn't make me feel anymore warm and fuzzy. I may just sit it out going forward.....but I say that now.
Uncle CornCob
Footballguy
Singapore is entering lockdown again after a second wave
Mr Anonymous
Footballguy
I was able to find the treatment guide China has issued...
https://covid-19.alibabacloud.com/
About a 1/4 down the page linked above there's a READ NOW button. On page 24 of the handbook, (page 29 of the pdf) you'll see that China is using chloroquine as a treatment.
https://covid-19.alibabacloud.com/
About a 1/4 down the page linked above there's a READ NOW button. On page 24 of the handbook, (page 29 of the pdf) you'll see that China is using chloroquine as a treatment.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
NorvilleBarnes
Footballguy
Mind boggling. I think India has to be a worst case scenario. High population, low sanitation and hygiene , government corruption and ineffectiveness, unhealthy religious rituals, and a lot of superstitions. I realize it probably sounds like I just described the U.S. to some but India seems like it has the worst of both worlds in terms of containment and treatment.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
I edited my post above adding detail. It was one of the most disgusting things I’ve ever seen.
trader jake
Footballguy
In the Netflix show 'Pandemic' they did a nice job showing the difficulties of battling swine flu there. COVID19 may be a completely different battle.
Agreed. Schools should not reopen this year IMO.
That is an irresponsible take. One that will only lead to more deaths in the short term, more economic problems in the long-term, and a whole lot of social unrest. All non-essential things in the entire country should be shut down >>> your suggestion we just open it up and 'live with this'.
Politician Spock
Footballguy
Even then millions of people will be focused on rebuilding the accumulated wealth they lost instead of spending like they were a few weeks ago.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Has this thing got to Rio yet? I can only imagine places like India and Brazil.
Doug B
Footballguy
First, some good news: The Journal of Critical Care, to which your linked paper was submitted for publication (but not yet published), is a legitimate scientific journal. The articles published in that journal will be peer-reviewed as a prerequisite to publication.
Now, for the lengthy list of cons (spoilered for length):
- The paper linked is not a study --
it is an aggregation of existing articles. See the Methods section on page 1: "We performed a systematic review of the PubMed and EMBASE databases from inception to 1 March 2020 to find articles providing information on the efficacy and safety of chloroquine and chloroquine-related formulations in patients with SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia and articles describing related in-vitro studies."
- In their Results section (my capital lettering) : "[We] found six relevant articles (A. one narrative letter, B. one research letter, C. one editorial, D. one expert consensus paper in Chinese, E. one national guideline document in Dutch and one in Italian). F. Twenty-three trials were found in the trial registries."
In order:
- A. From their Discussion section, pg 3: "A narrative letter by Chinese authors reported that a news briefing from the State Council of China had indicated that 'Chloroquine phosphate...had demonstrated marked efficacy and acceptable safety in treating COVID-19 associated pneumonia in multicentre clinical trials conducted in China' [5]. The authors also stated that these findings came from 'more than 100 patients' included in the trials [5]. We sought for evidence of such data in the trial registries we reviewed and found none."
The authors are too kind. I inserted the links to the cited article (the [5]s) -- please click on them and note that the reference is to an abstract and references, void of any actual experiment whatsoever. Not much better than a "Terms of Service" dead link.
- B. From their Discussion section, pg 3: "The research letter, written by a group of Chinese researchers, studied the effect of chloroquine in vitro, using Vero E6 cells infected by SARS-CoV-2 at a multiplicity of infection (MOI) of 0.05. The study demonstrated that chloroquine was highly effective in reducing viral replication, with an Effective Concentration (EC)90of 6.90μM that can be easily achievable with standard dosing, due to its favourable penetration in tissues, including in the lung. ... The authors also speculated on the possibility that the known immunomodulant effect of the drug may enhance the antiviral effect in vivo."
- C. From their Discussion section, pg 3: "The Editorial written by French researchers, underlined the in-vitro efficacy of chloroquine in other viral infections, especially SARS (whose disappearance resulted in limited further research). They also discussed the potentially favourable risk-benefit balance, the high safety, and the low expenditure of such treatment in the context of the current COVID-19 outbreak."
One of the authors of this editorial, Dr. Didier Raoult, has been mentioned and discussed in this thread. He is a legitimate and noted researcher in the field of infectious diseases. Subsequent to this editorial, he was part of a team that conducted a limited trial (>30 patients) of a therapy combining hydroxychloroquine and the popular antibiotic azithromycin.
While initially being touted as a promising set of results, Raoult's methods in achieving those results proved questionable under further scrutiny (The Intercept, 3/24/2020):
Chloroquine phosphate, meant for parasite control in fish tanks, is what killed a man in Arizona this past weekend (NBC News, 3/23/2020).
- E. From their Discussion section, pg 4: "The Dutch Center of Disease control (CDC), in a public document on its website (NOTE: not anymore - DB), suggested to treat severe infections requiring admission to the hospital and oxygen therapy or admitted to the ICU with chloroquine, [8] (NOTE: another dead link - DB). However, the document also stated that treating patients only with optimal supportive care is still a reasonable option, due to lack of supportive evidence."
"Another guideline document by the Italian Society of Infectious and Tropical disease (Lombardy section) recommend the use of chlorochine 500 mg × 2/die or hydroxychloroquine 200 mg die for 10 days, although the treatment may vary from 5 to 20 days according to clinical severity. The suggested target population ranged from patients with mild respiratory symptoms and comorbidities to patients with severe respiratory failure [9]." (NOTE: yep -- yet another dead link - DB)
- F. The chart about the incipient trials is interesting, but note that everything they cited is from March 1st and earlier (see Methods, pg 1). See the second column in the trials chart (pgs 2-3 here) titled 'Recruiting Status'. That column shows that not a one of those 23 trials had even begun -- all statuses shown were either 'Pre-approval', 'Not yet recruiting' or 'Recruiting'. None of the 23 were underway as of 3/1.
it is an aggregation of existing articles. See the Methods section on page 1: "We performed a systematic review of the PubMed and EMBASE databases from inception to 1 March 2020 to find articles providing information on the efficacy and safety of chloroquine and chloroquine-related formulations in patients with SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia and articles describing related in-vitro studies."
- In their Results section (my capital lettering) : "[We] found six relevant articles (A. one narrative letter, B. one research letter, C. one editorial, D. one expert consensus paper in Chinese, E. one national guideline document in Dutch and one in Italian). F. Twenty-three trials were found in the trial registries."
In order:
- A. From their Discussion section, pg 3: "A narrative letter by Chinese authors reported that a news briefing from the State Council of China had indicated that 'Chloroquine phosphate...had demonstrated marked efficacy and acceptable safety in treating COVID-19 associated pneumonia in multicentre clinical trials conducted in China' [5]. The authors also stated that these findings came from 'more than 100 patients' included in the trials [5]. We sought for evidence of such data in the trial registries we reviewed and found none."
The authors are too kind. I inserted the links to the cited article (the [5]s) -- please click on them and note that the reference is to an abstract and references, void of any actual experiment whatsoever. Not much better than a "Terms of Service" dead link.
- B. From their Discussion section, pg 3: "The research letter, written by a group of Chinese researchers, studied the effect of chloroquine in vitro, using Vero E6 cells infected by SARS-CoV-2 at a multiplicity of infection (MOI) of 0.05. The study demonstrated that chloroquine was highly effective in reducing viral replication, with an Effective Concentration (EC)90of 6.90μM that can be easily achievable with standard dosing, due to its favourable penetration in tissues, including in the lung. ... The authors also speculated on the possibility that the known immunomodulant effect of the drug may enhance the antiviral effect in vivo."
- C. From their Discussion section, pg 3: "The Editorial written by French researchers, underlined the in-vitro efficacy of chloroquine in other viral infections, especially SARS (whose disappearance resulted in limited further research). They also discussed the potentially favourable risk-benefit balance, the high safety, and the low expenditure of such treatment in the context of the current COVID-19 outbreak."
One of the authors of this editorial, Dr. Didier Raoult, has been mentioned and discussed in this thread. He is a legitimate and noted researcher in the field of infectious diseases. Subsequent to this editorial, he was part of a team that conducted a limited trial (>30 patients) of a therapy combining hydroxychloroquine and the popular antibiotic azithromycin.
While initially being touted as a promising set of results, Raoult's methods in achieving those results proved questionable under further scrutiny (The Intercept, 3/24/2020):
- D. From their Discussion section, pg 3-4: "The expert consensus was published on 20th February by a multicentre collaboration group of the Department of Science and Technology of Guangdong Province and Health Commission of Guangdong Province paper and related specifically to the use of chloroquinephosphate [7] (NOTE: Dead Google Scholar link - DB). No information was provided on the method used to achieve consensus [7]. Based on in vitro evidence and still unpublished clinical experience, the panel recommended chloroquine phosphate tablet, at a dose of 500 mg twice per day for 10 days, for patients diagnosed as mild, moderate and severe cases ..."
Chloroquine phosphate, meant for parasite control in fish tanks, is what killed a man in Arizona this past weekend (NBC News, 3/23/2020).
- E. From their Discussion section, pg 4: "The Dutch Center of Disease control (CDC), in a public document on its website (NOTE: not anymore - DB), suggested to treat severe infections requiring admission to the hospital and oxygen therapy or admitted to the ICU with chloroquine, [8] (NOTE: another dead link - DB). However, the document also stated that treating patients only with optimal supportive care is still a reasonable option, due to lack of supportive evidence."
"Another guideline document by the Italian Society of Infectious and Tropical disease (Lombardy section) recommend the use of chlorochine 500 mg × 2/die or hydroxychloroquine 200 mg die for 10 days, although the treatment may vary from 5 to 20 days according to clinical severity. The suggested target population ranged from patients with mild respiratory symptoms and comorbidities to patients with severe respiratory failure [9]." (NOTE: yep -- yet another dead link - DB)
- F. The chart about the incipient trials is interesting, but note that everything they cited is from March 1st and earlier (see Methods, pg 1). See the second column in the trials chart (pgs 2-3 here) titled 'Recruiting Status'. That column shows that not a one of those 23 trials had even begun -- all statuses shown were either 'Pre-approval', 'Not yet recruiting' or 'Recruiting'. None of the 23 were underway as of 3/1.
Chemical X
Footballguy
Heck, when I attended the P.S. and J.H.S you needed 8+ inches of snow to maybe close. If we passed out from radiator heat and boiler gas they would push us towards the back. Couldn't even be sent home for eating a box of crayons or coloring your teeth in with pencils.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
What do people do during the summer when there’s no school? Also there’s lots of people still working now who have kids at home.
ren hoek
Footballguy
From Mecca to Miami Beach, satellite images show COVID-19's impact:
What It Looks Like From Space When Everything Stops
What It Looks Like From Space When Everything Stops
Redwes25
Footballguy
Think people know that. I think if it was a magic bullet we would know already given how much China and others have been treating patients with it. I hope I am wrong of course and it is a really good treatment option.
Mr Anonymous
Footballguy
Belgium is using hydroxychloroquine for mild, medium, and severe stages of the virus. You'll have to right click on the article and translate to English. They began using it on March 13th...
https://www.levif.be/actualite/sante/coronavirus-une-molecule-vient-au-secours-des-patients-hospitalises/article-news-1265287.html?cookie_check=1584576524
https://www.levif.be/actualite/sante/coronavirus-une-molecule-vient-au-secours-des-patients-hospitalises/article-news-1265287.html?cookie_check=1584576524
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Definitely not the forum but I assure you many do not share this opinion in any of the circles I frequent around Mar-A-Lago
Some find comfort in him promoting potential vaccines or treatments, his optimism about getting people back to work ASAP is a terrific message. You keep people at home long enough and a bunch will never go back, lot of folks are lazy and there's a reason unemployment was as low as it was.
Don't want to derail this thread, I've tried hard to go with the flow of folks, there's some other threads where you can spread your wings a bit more but it certainly isn't to talk politics #11, good luck!
trader jake
Footballguy
This thread is not a good harbinger. The last few days a vocal minority has really, really darkened my view on how intelligently we'll handle this in the US.
tamales
Footballguy
beer 30
Footballguy
Chemy, we don't want the truth because deep down in places we don't talk about at parties, we want you on that cruise -- we need you on that cruise!
-fish-
Footballguy
Schools aren't opening again until the fall. There's not even a slim chance that they'll reopen for this school year.
- Status
