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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (21 Viewers)

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Chemical X said:
Well, here's a good thing I suppose.  DHS has extended the deadline to obtain that hideous "Real ID" 1 year, until 10/1/2021.

If you recall, in order to fly domestically, you'd need a verified driver's license as ID, usually with a star added to it, upper right hand corner.  This would be for people that didn't have or want to bring a passport with them to the airport.  The passport still makes you not need a "Real ID", but there are people without passports that fly domestically.
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This is great. My current license ends on my birthday which is late September. It was going to be a madhouse at the DMV renewing with all the Real ID folks there. 

 
Possum said:
I don't think showing stuff like those kids at the beach on spring break does anything to help curb conduct. It helps stress the rest of us out further and keep eyes on the news.

ymmv, brother - I'm not saying treat the virus like a joke, just that some mental health breaks from the constant doom and gloom are a good idea.
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Hopefully people can take walk then and stay at least 6 feet apart from people when they do. Not party at the beach with hundreds of other people or the other sub-optimal behaviors we've seen. 

 
Grace Under Pressure said:
He reported 385 and 519. That's a 35% increase, right in line with what @moleculohas been tracking with his update this morning.
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Again, it depends on when you run your update.  If you run your update with Cuomo's press conference, you'll get different numbers than if you run your update every evening after final numbers come in.  In the end it all works out the same, but those differences can confuse people.

 
urbanhack said:
Just saw an update where he posted that he's doing better after 10 days of feeling like death.  :thumbup:
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Great to hear. Terrible about the kid that was denied compassion and care though.  That is exactly the part of our national re-prioritization that must happen after this national crisis and prolonged tragedy.

 
Since this was authored yesterday, I'm guessing it may have been shared, but I'll link it nonetheless. Dr Fauci and two co-authors made their latest assessments of what the final outcome will look like...

Dr Fauci in the New England Journal of Medicine on Thursday

On the basis of a case definition requiring a diagnosis of pneumonia, the currently reported case fatality rate is approximately 2%.4 In another article in the Journal, Guan et al.5 report mortality of 1.4% among 1099 patients with laboratory-confirmed Covid-19; these patients had a wide spectrum of disease severity. If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.2
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One can certainly hope.

 
Possum said:
personally from my experience I'm seeing what Joe sees - the majority of people are taking it seriously and trying to do this social distancing thing right. But there's still plenty of idiots out there and the media's gonna focus on showing us those people instead, because covering folks who are good citizens and comply with the government orders is boring and doesn't attract viewers.
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I think I agree and maybe wasn’t clear, the majority I believe are definitely taking it seriously. I’m more surprised at the size of the group that disregards it either totally or even when I’m in Lowe’s you see many instances not staying 6’ apart. I don’t think it’s realistic thoug that you are going to completely shutdown a country used to their freedom like we are but I do think we’ll do enough to get through this. Plenty to shake your head at though. 

 
Mr Anonymous said:
Since this was authored yesterday, I'm guessing it may have been shared, but I'll link it nonetheless. Dr Fauci and two co-authors made their latest assessments of what the final outcome will look like...

Dr Fauci in the New England Journal of Medicine on Thursday

On the basis of a case definition requiring a diagnosis of pneumonia, the currently reported case fatality rate is approximately 2%.4 In another article in the Journal, Guan et al.5 report mortality of 1.4% among 1099 patients with laboratory-confirmed Covid-19; these patients had a wide spectrum of disease severity. If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.2
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One can certainly hope.
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He's not saying anything, really. Just that if different data assumptions are fed into the hopper, CFR ends up lower.

Case fatality rate doesn't matter, anyway. All comes down to hospitalizations vs. a given healthcare system's ability to absorb them.

 
Possum said:
I doubt it would curb any conduct other than turning off the TV, GB - nobody wants to see that, which was kind of my point. 
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That's the point (there's no point to that messaging). So the other options seem to be going with messaging that might curb behavior or go with no messaging at all in futility. While we're throwing our hands in the air, should we stop shaming people from using mobile phones while driving? We wouldn't want to exaggerate the problem, and it probably won't help curb behavior anyway, right?   

 
Doug B said:
He's not saying anything, really. Just that if different data assumptions are fed into the hopper, CFR ends up lower.

Case fatality rate doesn't matter, anyway. All comes down to hospitalizations vs. a given healthcare system's ability to absorb them.
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Yeah the "if one assumes" statement invalidates the whole thing.  One can assume anything.

 
Doug B said:
He's not saying anything, really. Just that if different data assumptions are fed into the hopper, CFR ends up lower.

Case fatality rate doesn't matter, anyway. All comes down to hospitalizations vs. a given healthcare system's ability to absorb them.
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Still a long way to go to reach the estimated hospitalization and number of deaths from the severe 2017-18 flu season...

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

U.S. Hospitalizations - 810,000

U.S. Deaths - 61,000
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Current number of confirmed cases of Covid-19 and deaths...

U.S. Covid-19 Confirmed Cases - 86,012 (not all hospitalized)

U.S. Covid-19 Total Deaths - 1,301
Click to expand...


Still reason to hope we don't reach those 17-18 flu numbers for Covid-19

 
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Capella said:
How is anybody in that state even walking outside? What are they thinking? 
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Mental health. They have thousands of volunteer mental health workers skyping or by phone. Being indoors 24/7 in a city like NY has got to be more taxing than slower going cities. As long as we social distance it's fine.

 
Some good news to share. 

I have mentioned before that I volunteer at our church's food pantry.  This is not a normal food pantry,  but runs once a month and works directly with foodlink to supply food to those in need in our community.  It is the largest food pantry in our county.  We normally service 400-450 families monthly with a shopping cart full of food.  This includes pantry type items like pasta, rice, beans, sauce, peanut butter, canned vegetables, fresh meat (usually 10-15 pounds) as well as fresh produce depending on what we can get, like romaine, grapes, etc.  We have had to change things quite dramatically this month to deals with groups and safety, but the need for volunteers is still needed as ~50% of our normal volunteers are 65+.

We have done some pre-packing the last two days of non perishables which allowed us to keep distance from others and keep the total number of people down to small numbers.  I just got back from there to help with some pre-packing.  Going in at 7am tomorrow as we will have $450 worth of food for 600 families to distribute.  We have 4 tractor trailers arriving tomorrow to deliver a whole truck of frozen vegetables and 3 trucks of perishables (meat/daily/produce).

I was worried about going but I will have a mask/gloves and they are going to be handling this well I think.  The need is just too important and I feel I need to go.

 
Holy ####. From CBS local news.

Two thousand people are estimated to die from COVID-19 in the next 12 weeks in Santa Clara county alone in what the San Jose city manager called the best case scenario.

 
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CurlyNight said:
Holy ####. From CBS local news.

Two thousand people are estimated to die from COVID-19 in the next 12 weeks in Santa Clara county alone in what the San Jose city manager called the best case scenario.
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How would that compare to the seasonal flu?*

-Asking for an "anonymous" friend?

*Sarcasm alert

 
Statorama said:
I don't think anyone is denying that there's a virus out there, and that it has claimed lives.  But there seem to be a lot of people denying that 12 to 14 months of acting this way is not doable.  It's a non-starter. 
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Not in this thread. Are you talking about out in meatspace or in social media somewhere?

There seems to be a prevailing belief in some that if I go out and shake my neighbors hand that we're going to end up killing everyone we come into contact with afterwards.
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The prevailing belief is not quite that severe. At the risk of providing a small rhetorical opening ... I don't think an isolated act of going and shaking someone's hand is all that dangerous, given either a prompt sanitizing or else an ASAP handwashing. Assuming the health of both parties, no hacking or sneezing.

The "well, 2,000 people died yesterday - that means 4,000 will die tomorrow" crowd are instilling fear and panic into people that by and large won't be killed by this thing. The vast majority of people who get this will recover just fine.

Related: Inaccurate virus models are panicking officials into ill advised lockdowns
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Those who will or won't be killed by this thing is not the point, and was never the point. Hospitalizations and the threat of health-care system overrun are the point.

Should people who are at risk take special precautions?  Yes.  Absolutely.  The elderly, infirm and those with chronic respiratory, autoimmune or coronary conditions...those are the people that should be quarantined and shut out from the rest of the public, because if they get the virus there's a good chance they could die.  They should be afraid of being around large groups (or people in general) and making sure they wipe down things they come into contact with.  The rest of the world shouldn't have to be shut down because Pop Pop can't stop going to the supper club to play poker on Wednesdays.
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The healthcare effects of COVID cannot be isolated to any given age cohort. Even if all people over 60 disappeared ... the number of COVID hospitalizations among the remainder (if social distancing, etc. stopped) would still overwhelm health systems.

There's a lot of talk about flattening the curve, but at some point we need to flatten the unemployment curve.  Most of the people proposing a months long lockdown are not going without a paycheck right now.  At a certain point people that are not at high risk of dying from this have to be able to stop living like they're under siege.  Where's the sympathy for the millions of people that are going to be economically destroyed because of this shut down?
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The stimulus bill has passed, finally. The worst economic effects for the most economically vulnerable can be largely (not completely) staved off. After the worst has passed ... it will be easier for individuals to make an economic comeback than to have made a comeback from lengthy hospitalization (and even deaths for a portion of under-60s).

Full disclosure: My wife and I are following the guidelines.  We haven't been within 6 feet of someone other than each other in 8 days.  I'm doing my part and I hope others are as well. 
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You're doing what needs to be done. Good on you.

But let's not cut off our leg because our nose itches.  This has got to end at some point.  /rant
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Yes, it will end at some point. Really, no one of consequence is calling for an lengthy open-ended closedown ... I don't believe I've seen anyone anywhere call for even as long as six months. Seen some 12 weeks/3 months spitballed, but not by anyone with authority.

Secondary disclosure: Doug B is awesome and has been great in this thread.  If he writes something that conflicts with what I say, you should probably listen to him.
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Thanks for the good word, GB  :thumbup:  

 
shader said:
I have no idea how legit this is (for all i know it could be the Sun of India), but it's terrifying.

https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/covid-19-cases-detected-in-four-separate-mumbai-slum-clusters-61394
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From the link:

Health department sources admit that a major blunder was committed when they asked a 37-year-old resident of a Kalina slum to quarantine himself at home earlier this month.
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And yet, that blunder is standard operating procedure in the US. 

 
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Politician Spock said:
From the link:

And yet, that blunder is stander operating procedure in the US. 
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That is very true.  I think back to a NYT podcast I listened to a week or two ago where the expert was talking about how the USA's social distancing policy didn't work in China and that the only way they stopped the numbers is by taking people with the virus away.

I was reading about Pakistan this morning.  They've setup "quarantine camps".  But before you think of this in a Nazi-way, the people in these camps say they have wifi, good food, and are generally comfortable.  Smart from them.  

 
Morton Muffley said:
How would that compare to the seasonal flu?*

-Asking for an "anonymous" friend?

*Sarcasm alert
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I would tell that person to maintain hope that those projections made by the San Jose city manager could end up being very wrong. After all, we've already seen many projections based on flawed assumptions and we've also seen a few projections dramatically lowered after closer scrutiny.

 
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shader said:
That is very true.  I think back to a NYT podcast I listened to a week or two ago where the expert was talking about how the USA's social distancing policy didn't work in China and that the only way they stopped the numbers is by taking people with the virus away.

I was reading about Pakistan this morning.  They've setup "quarantine camps".  But before you think of this in a Nazi-way, the people in these camps say they have wifi, good food, and are generally comfortable.  Smart from them.  
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fyi, that same expert had a podcast two days ago and he said the policy of going to grocery stores is terrible.  We need to use existing delivery services and keep people in their homes.

 
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shader said:
That is very true.  I think back to a NYT podcast I listened to a week or two ago where the expert was talking about how the USA's social distancing policy didn't work in China and that the only way they stopped the numbers is by taking people with the virus away.

I was reading about Pakistan this morning.  They've setup "quarantine camps".  But before you think of this in a Nazi-way, the people in these camps say they have wifi, good food, and are generally comfortable.  Smart from them.  
Click to expand...
Like this camp?

Sounds awesome!

It was the smell that was the worst. In this dusty camp on Pakistan’s border with Iran, which at one stage held more than 6,000 people, the stench of sweat, rubbish and human excrement hung in the air. There was no real housing, just five people to a ragged tent, and no bathrooms, towels or blankets.

The camp, in the town of Taftan in Balochistan province, was supposed to function as a sanitary quarantine location, preventing the spread of the coronavirus from Iran, which has had one of the worst outbreaks globally.
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China Shuts Down All Cinemas, Again

Over the past two weeks, hundreds of movie theaters in the country had begun to reopen. No reason for the policy reversal was given, but insiders believe the government is worried about a potential second wave of coronavirus infections.

 
Herb said:
Not just NYC trenches, unfortunately.  I live in an area that has not been hard hit (yet) and supplies are already quite low here. Practically everything disposable is on back order. Anything, disposable or reusable, that has to do with respiratory protection is nearly impossible to obtain. 
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This has been a concern of mine all along. With several major cities as epicenters that require extra supplies in a very short window, what happens in the next 3-5 hot spots when they make the same call for more resources? What about the next 3-5 after that? It's going to be interesting to see how the curve of the virus goes, how the needs grow, and how well the production ramp up can meet that need. I can say that this (rather selfish) thought is part of the reason I was an early adopter of WFH and family isolation. 

rick6668 said:
Some good news to share. 

I have mentioned before that I volunteer at our church's food pantry.  This is not a normal food pantry,  but runs once a month and works directly with foodlink to supply food to those in need in our community.  It is the largest food pantry in our county.  We normally service 400-450 families monthly with a shopping cart full of food.  This includes pantry type items like pasta, rice, beans, sauce, peanut butter, canned vegetables, fresh meat (usually 10-15 pounds) as well as fresh produce depending on what we can get, like romaine, grapes, etc.  We have had to change things quite dramatically this month to deals with groups and safety, but the need for volunteers is still needed as ~50% of our normal volunteers are 65+.

We have done some pre-packing the last two days of non perishables which allowed us to keep distance from others and keep the total number of people down to small numbers.  I just got back from there to help with some pre-packing.  Going in at 7am tomorrow as we will have $450 worth of food for 600 families to distribute.  We have 4 tractor trailers arriving tomorrow to deliver a whole truck of frozen vegetables and 3 trucks of perishables (meat/daily/produce).

I was worried about going but I will have a mask/gloves and they are going to be handling this well I think.  The need is just too important and I feel I need to go.
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Hand sanitizer, hand washing, masks and smart social distancing should be plenty to keep you and the other workers safe while providing what is clearly an essential service. 

 
GoBirds said:
I think I agree and maybe wasn’t clear, the majority I believe are definitely taking it seriously. I’m more surprised at the size of the group that disregards it either totally or even when I’m in Lowe’s you see many instances not staying 6’ apart. I don’t think it’s realistic thoug that you are going to completely shutdown a country used to their freedom like we are but I do think we’ll do enough to get through this. Plenty to shake your head at though. 
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See, I don't understand this part.  Every western liberal democracy on earth is also used to the same "freedom" yet are taking this far more seriously.

 
Grace Under Pressure said:
He reported 385 and 519. That's a 35% increase, right in line with what @moleculohas been tracking with his update this morning.
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I'd vote for @moleculo

I'm still unclear about the testing or lack of that we continue to see in pockets across the country. I'm suspecting (hoping?) it's a matter of not having the test kits in the right place at the right time and the general lack of reagents needed for the testing or the processing, not sure which. If it's anything other than that, my disappointment in our response to this event would be vindicated and that sucks.

Anybody have any ideas other than "we dropped the ball" about lack of testing? 

 
Yeah this certainly isn't done by any means in China. I suspect what they're doing is setting it up so they can blame the west on "re-infecting" them. They know they can't suppress info forever so the next best thing is to frame it as an external threat.

 
Nathan R. Jessep said:
Latest numbers for Louisiana as of noon CST today, just for comparison basis for other regions of the country:

2305 cases (increase of 510 since yesterday)

83 deaths (increase of 18)

676 Covid-19 patients in hospitals (increase of 185)

239 Covid-19 patients on ventilators (increase of 76)

2254 tests completed by state lab (increase of 217)

15775 tests completed by commerical labs (increase of 6361)

53 of 64 parishes reporting cases (increase of 5)
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Update today, 24 hours later:

2746 cases

119 deaths

773 hospitalized

270 on vents

2476 tests by state

18883 test by commercial

54 of 64 parishes (and I know for a fact one of the parishes not reporting, the one of my home town, has had several confirmed positives, so they're either not in today's update yet, or they are attributed to another parish due to patient's residency)

If I did that math right, that was 441 positive tests out of 3330 tests issued, for a positive rate of 13.24% 

 
zoonation said:
See, I don't understand this part.  Every western liberal democracy on earth is also used to the same "freedom" yet are taking this far more seriously.
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You are in canada right?

How do they handle positive cases? Do they shield the name of a positive tested coworker? What about church services, Exempt? Curious how other countries are handling these issues. 

 
shader said:
Italy:  5,909 new cases and 919 new deaths 😞
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Italy's new cases are below the peak number of new cases for the 6th straight day (3/21 was their peak). The deaths reported today are 6 days following their peak number of new cases. It's a tragedy in Italy, hopefully their new cases have indeed flattened and they maintain their diligence on extreme social distancing and reductions in new cases can follow. 

 
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