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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (27 Viewers)

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Observations from a grocery store stop today:

Some people were trying to keep 6’ between people and follow the arrows setup for going down aisles. Other people just didn’t give a crap and went down aisles any way they wanted and brushed right by other people.

Was about to ask the cashier if people were still hoarding when I noticed the woman behind me had 6 cartons of milk in her cart. Question answered. Then watched 5 teens pile out of a car in the parking lot. Strange mixture out here of people clearly stressed and panicking and people who seem to be going on life as normal.

 
timschochet said:
I need some advice- non political: 

my 17 year old daughter is begging me to be allowed to go to the park and hang out with 2 of her friends. She swears she will stay 6 feet apart. She’s going stir crazy. 

Thoughts? 
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Can they go for a walk instead in the neighborhood and stay 6 feet apart while walking? Going to hang out at the park sounds like a social gathering is starting to get set-up as teens are apt to do and downplay it to their parents. 

 
timschochet said:
I need some advice- non political: 

my 17 year old daughter is begging me to be allowed to go to the park and hang out with 2 of her friends. She swears she will stay 6 feet apart. She’s going stir crazy. 

Thoughts? 
Click to expand...
I'd say "Not now.  There are things we will do weeks from now that carry the same risk of infection that they do now.  We will be more comfortable doing those things then (whereas we aren't now) because we will have flattened the curve such as to NOT overburden the HC system."  I heard someone recent say "imagine that you are diagnosed tomorrow and for sake of contact tracing are asked to detail all the things you did and all the people you interacted with over the past 10 days.  As you review that list, will you feel pride or shame?"  THAT is how we should ALL be acting/thinking.

 
beer 30 said:
This is America at work during times of need. My company has been assisting pretty heavily with power & HVAC set up with these temp facilities as well as a mountain of air scrubbers. From that side, there is a ton going on.
Click to expand...
Good to hear it.

My company, a $10+b, Fortune 500 company with manufacturing facilities worldwide (and in USA), supply chains, and thousands engineers with product development expertise across the globe is doing absolutely nothing to support getting life saving equipment and gear to the people and places where it's needed. We're not retooling manufacturing lines, we're not utilizing excess capacity, we're not engaged in developing or producing ventilators or PPE... We're just hunkering down and waiting for the storm to pass, hoping that people buy our products after they return to work. Oh, and we'll lay people off or furlough some very soon.

I'm not proud of my company.

 
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timschochet said:
I need some advice- non political: 

my 17 year old daughter is begging me to be allowed to go to the park and hang out with 2 of her friends. She swears she will stay 6 feet apart. She’s going stir crazy. 

Thoughts? 
Click to expand...
uh...no

michael rappaport would like a word.

 
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The Z Machine said:
Good to hear it.

My company, a $10+b, Fortune 500 company with manufacturing facilities worldwide (and in USA), supply chains, and thousands engineers with product development expertise across the globe is doing absolutely nothing to support getting life saving equipment and gear to the people and places where it's needed. We're not retooling manufacturing lines, we're not utilizing excess capacity, we're not engaged in developing or producing ventilators or PPE... We're just hunkering down and waiting for the storm to pass, hoping that people but our products after they return to work. Oh, and we'll lay people off or furlough some very soon.

I'm not proud of my company.
Click to expand...
I'm fortunate to work for a super cool company that isn't a first responder but probably one level removed in that we support them with equipment so we do this a lot. Hurricanes, floods, fires, etc so it's in our DNA. Unfortunately, we've never had to respond to something we can't see so it's been challenging and the group I work with is the only one in the company that handles the gear that fights the virus so it's hectic. The power & HVAC set up is standard for us and we have a ton of stuff ready to go.

moleculo said:
to quote William Tecumseh Sherman: If nominated, I will not run; if elected, I will not serve.
Click to expand...
A true man of the people  :thumbup:

 
timschochet said:
Thanks for the advice everyone. She’s going to be mad but I have to agree with everyone here. 
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Yes. But understand when you return we’ll have to lock you in your room for 15 days. When we drop off food, please allow ten seconds for us to vacate the area before you open the door.

Also, tell her to download House Party app. It’s the hip version of Zoom with gaming options.

 
[scooter] said:
Statorama said:
As an aside Dr. Fauci says the corona virus is likely seasonal
Click to expand...
As an aside, that article does not actually quote Fauci with using the word "likely".

The actual quote from Fauci was "I think it very well might [be seasonal]".

I'm all for optimism but accuracy in quoting is important. (Not a knock on Statorama since he was just copying the poorly-worded headline.)
Click to expand...
That particular news source is almost certainly looking for "outs" -- something that allows them and their targeted readers to think "It's pretty much over", "Done deal", "Let's get back to normal, threat's over", etc.

 
timschochet said:
I need some advice- non political: 

my 17 year old daughter is begging me to be allowed to go to the park and hang out with 2 of her friends. She swears she will stay 6 feet apart. She’s going stir crazy. 

Thoughts? 
Click to expand...
I wouldnt let my son do it, but not because of fear. I want other people to stay home, especially those that need it most. So I do it to play my part. 

The risk of her getting it from going to the park with a couple friends for a while is crazy small.

 
RnR said:
Want to unpack this a little, GB? I don't want to assume something here that you're not intending.
Click to expand...
my thoughts have always been that the govt operates to the lowest common denominator in this country and treats most of its citizens like inbred yokels.  rather than find what i think need to be longer term solutions, so as to avoid these issues, we just send people some money and that makes everything fine.  no questions asked.  we don’t expand medicaid, we slash apart the ACA, etc., yet we find trillions for a short term fix and isn’t our govt doing a great job is the end result.  why does this bill carry a perk for the wealthiest real estate owners?  

 
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Doug B said:
This comparison doesn't get us anywhere, because the seasonal flu patients that get hospitalized didn't just go away in advance of the COVID patients. Also, COVID patients stay in critical care in greater numbers (per case) and for longer on average than influenza patients.

On top of that ... flu seasons are five-to-six month spans. COVID has been spreading in earnest in the U.S. for maybe 4-6 weeks depending on region.
Click to expand...
It doesn't get us all the way, but it gets us somewhere. It's entirely conceivable that when this subsides, even if it takes until summertime, that we'll never come close to the 800,000 hospitalizations, nor the 61,000 deaths from the 2017-18 flu season. We might not even match the spike over seasonal flu averages we saw that year (+300,000 hospitalized over normal and +20,000 deaths over normal).

Current Covid-19 numbers in the US: 96,968 cases / 1,477 deaths

Simply putting things in perspective that this can be overcome if controlled. Not speaking to whether or not we'll be up to the task.

 
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The Z Machine said:
Good to hear it.

My company, a $10+b, Fortune 500 company with manufacturing facilities worldwide (and in USA), supply chains, and thousands engineers with product development expertise across the globe is doing absolutely nothing to support getting life saving equipment and gear to the people and places where it's needed. We're not retooling manufacturing lines, we're not utilizing excess capacity, we're not engaged in developing or producing ventilators or PPE... We're just hunkering down and waiting for the storm to pass, hoping that people buy our products after they return to work. Oh, and we'll lay people off or furlough some very soon.

I'm not proud of my company.
Click to expand...
same.  Except we are no where near that size or expertise.  and we do make safety equipment, just not stuff that's helpful now.  I do have a feeling our stuff will be more relevant in about 9 months.

 
beer 30 said:
I'm fortunate to work for a super cool company that isn't a first responder but probably one level removed in that we support them with equipment so we do this a lot. Hurricanes, floods, fires, etc so it's in our DNA. Unfortunately, we've never had to respond to something we can't see so it's been challenging and the group I work with is the only one in the company that handles the gear that fights the virus so it's hectic. The power & HVAC set up is standard for us and we have a ton of stuff ready to go.

A true man of the people  :thumbup:
Click to expand...
I work for a rather large company. Perhaps you've heard of them -

https://www.ibm.com/thought-leadership/covid19/

I'm quite proud of what my company is doing to help.  :thumbup:

 
Sinn Fein said:
Or the nightmare - because if cases die down due to seasonality, and we let down our guard, we are going to get walloped in the fall when it hits again...
Click to expand...
It seems likely we're going to go through multiple waves of social distancing, interspersed with more normal periods of activity.

Asked someone who knows things about this the other day and they suggested that the on-off period might stretch as long as next summer.  But if herd immunity is a thing with this we might be able to get back to normal after 3 on-off cycles, or roughly next February/March.  The latter assumes that ~50% of us have been infected at that point.

 
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[scooter] said:
As an aside, that article does not actually quote Fauci with using the word "likely".

The actual quote from Fauci was "I think it very well might [be seasonal]".

I'm all for optimism but accuracy in quoting is important. (Not a knock on Statorama since he was just copying the poorly-worded headline.)
Click to expand...
He’s been saying it’s likely to be somewhat seasonal since at least January 24, usually couched with qualifiers.

Fauci is brilliant at framing questions with relevant caveats. “We are not a 100% you cannot experience a recurrence of Covid-19. But if it’s like every other virus I’ve ever encountered, I would bet any amount you won’t. But that hasn’t been proven, so as a scientist I cannot answer with absolute certainty.”

 
Dinsy Ejotuz said:
It seems likely we're going to go through multiple waves of social distancing, interspersed with more normal periods of activity.

Asked someone who knows things about this the other day and they suggested that the on-off period might stretch as long as next summer.  But if herd immunity is a thing with this we might be able to call it off after 3 on-off cycles, or roughly next February/March.  The latter assumes that ~50% of us have been infected at that point.
Click to expand...
Last I read, they are not sure whether someone can get re-infected or not. Anyone have any solid evidence one way or the other?

 
timschochet said:
I need some advice- non political: 

my 17 year old daughter is begging me to be allowed to go to the park and hang out with 2 of her friends. She swears she will stay 6 feet apart. She’s going stir crazy. 

Thoughts? 
Click to expand...
My daughter bikes with one of her friends regularly.  I don’t see the issue.  They are both responsible.

 
timschochet said:
I need some advice- non political: 

my 17 year old daughter is begging me to be allowed to go to the park and hang out with 2 of her friends. She swears she will stay 6 feet apart. She’s going stir crazy. 

Thoughts? 
Click to expand...
How confident are you that the other 2 friends will do the same? That's been my issue with my 11 yo son. His 4 close friends from the neighborhood have been hanging out, wandering, doing whatever they do on a regular day. We went on a bike ride the other day and allowed other neighborhood kids come along since it's all-hands on bikes and is a good way to force them to keep space and not touch each other. On that ride we passed one of the friends' house and that friend + a sibling + one of the other friends and his little brother were all jumping on the trampoline together. As we rode by, the kid that lived there said something to the effect of "coronavirus doesn't live outside" so it's fine that they're all in a ~4 foot diameter space. That same kid has come to my door asking to hang out 2 days in a row. Yesterday my son told him he couldn't play. Today I told him we were not taking any chances with CV. He replied that his mom is a doctor (she's a nurse of some kind) and says it no big deal and it is only bad in NY b/c of there are so many people in a small place. 

To me, it's less a question of "does my kid understand" and more a question of "do the other kids (and their parents) understand". We're not in an area that is hard hit by any stretch but these are kids that like to walk up to the local Cumberland Farms and buy candy, soda, etc. I have zero faith that their parents have even ASKED them to stop that behavior. Hard pass on allowing interactions. 
 

 
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timschochet said:
I need some advice- non political: 

my 17 year old daughter is begging me to be allowed to go to the park and hang out with 2 of her friends. She swears she will stay 6 feet apart. She’s going stir crazy. 

Thoughts? 
Click to expand...
No. Some parks here are closed after having warned about social distancing. She can interact with them on facetime and if she needs fresh air, maybe your family can go for a walk in the park. Imo

 
the moops said:
Last I read, they are not sure whether someone can get re-infected or not. Anyone have any solid evidence one way or the other?
Click to expand...
Fauci has said repeatedly “not if it’s like every other virus I have seen, but that hasn’t been proven yet.”

My layman understanding is this has to do with how Coronavirus mutates. They have observed about 2 mutations per month; for comparison, the regular seasonal flu mutates around 10 times per month. That’s why the flu shot is different every year. But the vaccines being developed now should be good for several years.

During recovery, even if you were asymptomatic, your body makes antibodies which prevent recurrence. There is a separate test to find out if you possess the antibody, indicating you were positive.

But I should probably stress since this hasn’t been scientifically proven so it’s not an absolute known truth.

 
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So how does the quarantine countdown work? My family has been under the 14 day quarantine since we traveled to Florida right before the sheeeet hit the fan.

We arrived back in Kansas City on Tuesday, St. Patricks Day - March 17th. Do we count that day as day one of the quarantine or do we count starting the next day - Wednesday the 18th?

 
Sinn Fein said:
Can confirm.  My wife works at the local hospice - she manages the social workers, and she just fought for them to be able to do visits via phone, unless the family requests an in-person visit from SW.  There are no PPE - for the social workers or nurses (or chaplains) - and the nurses are having to go from home to home (or in-care facility) - and they are all a nervous wreck about picking up the virus and/or spreading the virus in their visits.
Click to expand...
My sister too. She’s an rn who goes to homes and nursing homes/assisted living facilities. No ppe. Even in good times they couldn’t get masks. 

 
ChiefD said:
So how does the quarantine countdown work? My family has been under the 14 day quarantine since we traveled to Florida right before the sheeeet hit the fan.

We arrived back in Kansas City on Tuesday, St. Patricks Day - March 17th. Do we count that day as day one of the quarantine or do we count starting the next day - Wednesday the 18th?
Click to expand...
Full day at home is day 1 imo.

 
ChiefD said:
So how does the quarantine countdown work? My family has been under the 14 day quarantine since we traveled to Florida right before the sheeeet hit the fan.

We arrived back in Kansas City on Tuesday, St. Patricks Day - March 17th. Do we count that day as day one of the quarantine or do we count starting the next day - Wednesday the 18th?
Click to expand...
Quarantine should be 14 days from when you last had contact with people outside your family.

 
Mr Anonymous said:
It doesn't get us all the way, but it gets us somewhere. It's entirely conceivable that when this subsides, even if it takes until summertime, that we'll never come close to the 800,000 hospitalizations, nor the 61,000 deaths from the 2017-18 flu season. We might not even match the spike over seasonal flu averages we saw that year (+300,000 hospitalized over normal and +20,000 deaths over normal).

Current Covid-19 numbers: 96,968 cases / 1,477 deaths

Simply putting things in perspective that this can be overcome if controlled. Not speaking to whether or not we'll be up to the task.
Click to expand...
Understood.

Riffing off of the "spike" 2017-18 flu numbers in green above ... it would take roughly 1.5 million cases (confirmed + presumed + uncounted) to get to around 300K hospitalized. Using current rates from Worldometers, those same 1.5 million cases would lead to roughly 38,000 critical cases, and just under 23,000 deaths.

Here's how fast 1.5 million cases can add up even with a sharply-decreasing daily increase %. Starting with the 3/27 Worldometers numbers for the U.S. (which you cited) and the daily increase percentages shown here, here's what can happen starting with today's 25% increase. Keep in mind that for the sake of firmer numbers, I am only starting with today's confirmed-case count:

Code: 
   # of       Daily
  Cases       Pctg      Specific Day
=========     =====     =========================== 
   96,986	25%	Friday, March 27, 2020
  121,210	25%	Saturday, March 28, 2020
  149,088	23%	Sunday, March 29, 2020
  183,379	23%	Monday, March 30, 2020
  221,888	21%	Tuesday, March 31, 2020
  268,485	21%	Wednesday, April 01, 2020
  319,497	19%	Thursday, April 02, 2020
  380,201	19%	Friday, April 03, 2020
  444,835	17%	Saturday, April 04, 2020
  520,457	17%	Sunday, April 05, 2020
  598,526	15%	Monday, April 06, 2020
  688,305	15%	Tuesday, April 07, 2020
  777,784	13%	Wednesday, April 08, 2020
  878,896	13%	Thursday, April 09, 2020
  975,575	11%	Friday, April 10, 2020
1,082,888	11%	Saturday, April 11, 2020
1,180,348	 9%	Sunday, April 12, 2020
1,286,579	 9%	Monday, April 13, 2020
1,376,640	 7%	Tuesday, April 14, 2020
1,473,005	 7%	Wednesday, April 15, 2020
1,546,655	 5%	Thursday, April 16, 2020
 
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Doug B said:
Understood.

Riffing off of the "spike" 2017-18 flu numbers in green above ... it would take roughly 1.5 million cases (confirmed + presumed + uncounted) to get to around 300K hospitalized. Using current rates from Worldometers, those same 1.5 million cases would lead to roughly 38,000 critical cases, and just under 23,000 deaths.

Here's how fast 1.5 million cases can add up even with a sharply-decreasing daily increase %. Starting with the 3/27 Worldometers numbers for the U.S. (which you cited) and the daily increase percentages shown here, here's what can happen starting with today's 25% increase:

# of Daily
Cases Pctg Specific Day
========= ===== ===========================
96,986 25% Friday, March 27, 2020
121,210 25% Saturday, March 28, 2020
149,088 23% Sunday, March 29, 2020
183,379 23% Monday, March 30, 2020
221,888 21% Tuesday, March 31, 2020
268,485 21% Wednesday, April 01, 2020
319,497 19% Thursday, April 02, 2020
380,201 19% Friday, April 03, 2020
444,835 17% Saturday, April 04, 2020
520,457 17% Sunday, April 05, 2020
598,526 15% Monday, April 06, 2020
688,305 15% Tuesday, April 07, 2020
777,784 13% Wednesday, April 08, 2020
878,896 13% Thursday, April 09, 2020
975,575 11% Friday, April 10, 2020
1,082,888 11% Saturday, April 11, 2020
1,180,348 9% Sunday, April 12, 2020
1,286,579 9% Monday, April 13, 2020
1,376,640 7% Tuesday, April 14, 2020
1,473,005 7% Wednesday, April 15, 2020
1,546,655 5% Thursday, April 16, 2020
Click to expand...

Thank you for extrapolating this. These numbers are avoidable over the next 2-3 weeks but everyone has to do their part.

 
According to Dr. Acton and the Cleveland clinic, Ohio will not hit it's peak until mid May and will have up to 10,000 cases per day.

(This was from the 2pm press conference)

 
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