*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (13 Viewers)

[TheWinz]

How does one reconcile assuming China is understating infections by a factor of 50+ but accept their reported fatalities?

No one accepts China's deaths as 4633 (current on worldometer).  With their population at 1,438,555,671, the math just doesn't add up.  China is roughly the same size as the US, yet has more than 4 times the people, and has had to deal with the virus longer.

 

[shader]

1 new death, and 9 new hospitalizations, 0 new ICU admissions.

https://dph.georgia.gov/covid-19-daily-status-report

Keep in mind: a great deal of day-to-day increase in numbers is the result of backlogged and increased testing.

Deaths and hospitalizations aren’t what I was talking about. 

 

[shader]

How does one reconcile assuming China is understating infections by a factor of 50+ but accept their reported fatalities?

It’s easy when you are confident that the death rate is similar to that of the flu. 

 

[JaxBill]

Shanghai Disney reopens with limitations

 

[H Jass]

 I stick with the opinion that this will be the biggest mistake in human history.  We will have caused far more misery and death through economics than the virus ever could have cuased.

Can I get your Top10 list of "biggest mistakes in human history"....just want to know what I'm working with here.  Heck, just give me Top 5.

 

[beer 30]

If I wanted to hear gossip and untrusted news, I could get it for free from my neighbors.

Or come here and read 10 pages for any given time frame.

 

[beer 30]

Can I get your Top10 list of "biggest mistakes in human history"....just want to know what I'm working with here.  Heck, just give me Top 5.

That should be it's own thread, lots of potential there.

 

[Parrothead]

That should be it's own thread, lots of potential there.

1.   "New Coke"

 

[parasaurolophus]

All of the above is anecdotal and irrelevant, IMO.  We know the typical number of total US deaths during Jan, Feb, March, April of a given year.  We know this because we can look at historical statistics from 2015, 2016, 2017...

We know the total number of people who died in the US in Jan, Feb, March, April of 2020.  Simple math gets us the difference between 2020 and a normal year.  That number is quite a bit higher than the official counts (like 50% higher).  The difference is due to COVID.

I thought only new york and new jersey actually showed increases in expected mortality? 

Where are you seeing those numbers? 

 

[BroadwayG]

1.   "New Coke"

I was also typing out a list and New Coke was #2 behind our Corona Virus response.

 

[Morton Muffley]

This is where your thought process is wrong IMO. I most certainly don't think most agree with this. If you have terminal cancer or a heart attack and also happen to catch Covid, that's tallied as a Covid death. If you display "shortness of breath" before dying, you're listed as a Covid death. And many deaths are Flu related (similar symptoms). The Flu didn't magically disappear during the pandemic. They're all chalked up to Covid. The #s you provided are most likely grossly OVERstated, not understated. 

Any review of "excess deaths" analysis would suggest you are very, very wrong.  

 

[BobbyLayne]

Shanghai Disney reopens with limitations

Taiwan baseball allows 1,000 fans to attend games

Obviously not news, but I *think* this is the first instance of sports with fans starting back up? Have to sit every other row, and leave 3 seats open on either side. Cheerleaders the only ones in the crowd not wearing masks.

 

[CletiusMaximus]

 A close friend of mine tested positive today and was admitted immediately because he’s high risk due to medical condition. No fever, just felt a bit off since Saturday. Then some fatigue, and his doctor ordered a test which came back positive for C19.  He’s been in lockdown, albeit with his family home, for almost two weeks. 

For what its worth, my friend was discharged from the hospital a couple weeks ago and is recovering.  He's got a good story to tell - made the front page of our newspaper yesterday. Its pretty inspirational and worth reading if you have a few minutes.  We're good friends and our families are tight, very much looking forward to getting together again when this #### is over.

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/2020/05/08/youre-not-alone-nurse-instilled-hope-judge-who-beat-coronavirus/3089706001/

 

[parasaurolophus]

So this is the link that is causing me the confusion, updated as of today. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm?fbclid=IwAR1qZNuLqETKOAOnKyh8erEoKWjtm3o_-i1xCfQYjxggKtLy2kDdk6OP7II

What is with Connecticut? 

@Rich Conway 

This was what I was basing my question on. Only new york city showed above 50% here. And  only 11 states show above the expected. And only 3 show above 110%.

Obviously i didnt remember properly but new york and new jersey are definitely outliers. There is a lag here obviously so perhaps that explains the difference. 

 

[H Jass]

1.   "New Coke"

2. Trans-Atlantic Slave Trade

3. Jorts

4. Treaty of Versailles

5. Dallas "Dream Season" with Bobby Ewing

6. Munich Agreement of 1938

 

[RCon]

So this is the link that is causing me the confusion, updated as of today. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm?fbclid=IwAR1qZNuLqETKOAOnKyh8erEoKWjtm3o_-i1xCfQYjxggKtLy2kDdk6OP7II

What is with Connecticut? 

@Rich Conway 

This was what I was basing my question on. Only new york city showed above 50% here. And  only 11 states show above the expected. And only 3 show above 110%.

Obviously i didnt remember properly but new york and new jersey are definitely outliers. There is a lag here obviously so perhaps that explains the difference.

This is noted below the table.

NOTE: Number of deaths reported in this table are the total number of deaths received and coded as of the date of analysis and do not represent all deaths that occurred in that period. The United States population, based on 2018 postcensal estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau, is 327,167,434.

*Data during this period are incomplete because of the lag in time between when the death occurred and when the death certificate is completed, submitted to NCHS and processed for reporting purposes. This delay can range from 1 week to 8 weeks or more, depending on the jurisdiction, age, and cause of death.

This is a better link showing "excess deaths".  https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

I can't answer the question of "what's up with CT", other than to assume there's a significant lag in reporting.

 

 

[parasaurolophus]

For what its worth, my friend was discharged from the hospital a couple weeks ago and is recovering.  He's got a good story to tell - made the front page of our newspaper yesterday. Its pretty inspirational and worth reading if you have a few minutes.  We're good friends and our families are tight, very much looking forward to getting together again when this #### is over.

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/2020/05/08/youre-not-alone-nurse-instilled-hope-judge-who-beat-coronavirus/3089706001/

Thats a good story. Friend of mine shares most of his facebook posts. I imagine he is a good guy to have a beer with. 

 

[parasaurolophus]

This is noted below the table.

NOTE: Number of deaths reported in this table are the total number of deaths received and coded as of the date of analysis and do not represent all deaths that occurred in that period. The United States population, based on 2018 postcensal estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau, is 327,167,434.

*Data during this period are incomplete because of the lag in time between when the death occurred and when the death certificate is completed, submitted to NCHS and processed for reporting purposes. This delay can range from 1 week to 8 weeks or more, depending on the jurisdiction, age, and cause of death.

This is a better link showing "excess deaths".  https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

I can't answer the question of "what's up with CT", other than to assume there's a significant lag in reporting.

Your link has the same thing at the bottom and i believe is just a graph of the same data I posted. If i select the states individually on that graph and compare to the data I posted they look like they match. (But admittedly on a phone they are very small and kinda hard to see the weekly graphs.) The most recent weeks all show significant uptrends though. 

Number of deaths reported on this page are the total number of deaths received and coded as of the date of analysis and do not represent all deaths that occurred in that period. Data are incomplete because of the lag in time between when the death occurred and when the death certificate is completed, submitted to NCHS and processed for reporting purposes. This delay can range from 1 week to 8 weeks or more, depending on the jurisdiction and cause of death. 

 

[CletiusMaximus]

Thats a good story. Friend of mine shares most of his facebook posts. I imagine he is a good guy to have a beer with. 

I know he's huge on social media. I don't see any of that unless my wife shares it with me.  He is very well known in Milwaukee so going out with him is always a trip.  We went to a Bucks game just before the shut down and its like walking around the Fiserv with a celebrity. My wife texted me at work the day he was admitted and I completely broke down.  It was a hard time for all of us when he was in the ICU, knowing his medical history.  We are going to have some fun when this is over.

 

[CR69]

Georgia has upped testing and stood up drive-through testing... So numbers will of course go up, but have not seen any drastic change from opening up... 

Aren't we at the point where increased testing shouldn't really be having an impact though? We've been social distancing and staying home so where are these people even getting the virus from at this point? 6 weeks ago, sure. But these are new cases, not someone that caught the virus before it was widely understood what was actually happening. 

 

[the moops]

We've been social distancing and staying home so where are these people even getting the virus from at this point? . 

Not everyone is abiding. Many people still need to go to work. 

 

[H Jass]

That should be it's own thread, lots of potential there.

Done!  Created it....and please add whatever you have on your list shtick or none.

 

[Mr Anonymous]

Georgia numbers weren’t good today.  

1 new death, and 9 new hospitalizations, 0 new ICU admissions.

https://dph.georgia.gov/covid-19-daily-status-report

Keep in mind: a great deal of day-to-day increase in numbers is the result of backlogged and increased testing.

Deaths and hospitalizations aren’t what I was talking about. 

If 1 death, 9 hospitalizations, and 0 ICU admissions, isn't what you were referring to, then please by all means keep being cryptic. We're running short on doom and gloom in here lately.

 

[TheWinz]

Aren't we at the point where increased testing shouldn't really be having an impact though? We've been social distancing and staying home so where are these people even getting the virus from at this point? 6 weeks ago, sure. But these are new cases, not someone that caught the virus before it was widely understood what was actually happening. 

If any thing has exited or entered your house, there is where the virus is coming from.  And if any of those things are human, you can narrow it down even further.  My family and I are doing a pretty good job following the rules (live in CT - we are still on stay-at-home orders), but we have still left our house for supplies.  None of us are working at the moment, and we wear masks out in public.  It still wouldn't shock me if any of us were positive.

 

[rcam]

Aren't we at the point where increased testing shouldn't really be having an impact though? We've been social distancing and staying home so where are these people even getting the virus from at this point? 6 weeks ago, sure. But these are new cases, not someone that caught the virus before it was widely understood what was actually happening. 

Where I am, up until a few days ago, we were supposed to be under a stay-at-home order. In my cul de sac, 3 of the families were letting their kids play together in the cul de sac *every day*. One of the families, with high school+ age kids were setting up volleyball nets/games in the park behind their house. Behind our house, the high school kids, were having friends over most nights and they would hang out in their backyard. Four of the houses (that I know of) continued to have family and friends visit. Considering one of our neighbor's wife died of the flu only about 2 years ago everyone has a pretty cavalier attitude. 

 

[Keerock]

I’ve also been thinking about TN “opening up” 

Let’s be honest, it really hasn’t happened yet.  Yes, more people are out, some people are socializing, more stores are open...but is TN open?  Not even close.

The indoor malls are empty, churches empty, movie theaters empty, restaurants half full at best. No one is on planes, the downtown area in Nashville is a shell of itself, no sports, no concerts, no springtime festivals..

So perhaps this half opening can happen and keep the R0 under 1 and further drive down the active cases.  We shall see.

Well Davidson county is behind the rest of the state, right?  Nashville just starts "phase 1"  of reopening today...

 

[Angry Beavers]

Where I am, up until a few days ago, we were supposed to be under a stay-at-home order. In my cul de sac, 3 of the families were letting their kids play together in the cul de sac *every day*. One of the families, with high school+ age kids were setting up volleyball nets/games in the park behind their house. Behind our house, the high school kids, were having friends over most nights and they would hang out in their backyard. Four of the houses (that I know of) continued to have family and friends visit. Considering one of our neighbor's wife died of the flu only about 2 years ago everyone has a pretty cavalier attitude. 

pretty much the same here, except replace 3 families with 4 families and one of the families with college age kids and a recently divorced mom pretty much had a constant flow of traffic, guests and partying ( both mom and the kids)

ETA - the amazing part to me is that all 4 families work in healthcare................

 

[Doug B]

ETA - the amazing part to me is that all 4 families work in healthcare................

As does matuski, and he has posted in this thread many times about how most of his colleagues have little or no concern with COVID-19. Second-hand impression is that the medical professionals he works with may well have continued to have home visitors, allow their kids to hang with friends, etc. throughout all of this.

Now, matuski is in a "cold spot" somewhere in West (?) Texas. If these were NYC or New Jersey doctors/nurses being cavalier about COVID-19, I'd be a lot more surprised.

 

[shader]

Well Davidson county is behind the rest of the state, right?  Nashville just starts "phase 1"  of reopening today...

I honestly have no idea how Davidson county differs from the rest of TN.  Were they more restrictive?  I didn't realize that.  I'm only 20 minutes south of Davidson but things have been wide open here for 2 weeks.

 

[shader]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus/germany-surge-sounds-coronavirus-alarm-as-world-takes-steps-to-reopen-idUSKBN22N1QT?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=twitter

This is the problem the world has to figure out.  It's the problem that hasn't been figured out.  THERE IS NO WAY TO STOP THE VIRUS (until it hits herd immunity or we reach a vaccine). It's not going to happen.

This is not rocket science.  When states re-open, the virus will start spreading again.  There's a 100% certainty of that happening. 

 

[proteus126]

This is the problem the world has to figure out.  It's the problem that hasn't been figured out.  THERE IS NO WAY TO STOP THE VIRUS. It's not going to happen.

This is not rocket science.  When states re-open, the virus will start spreading again.  There's a 100% certainty of that happening.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AC4KhVkl6pw

 

[jamny]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus/germany-surge-sounds-coronavirus-alarm-as-world-takes-steps-to-reopen-idUSKBN22N1QT?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=twitter

This is the problem the world has to figure out.  It's the problem that hasn't been figured out.  THERE IS NO WAY TO STOP THE VIRUS. It's not going to happen.

This is not rocket science.  When states re-open, the virus will start spreading again.  There's a 100% certainty of that happening. 

Stop with the sensationalism already.  THERE IS NO WAY TO STOP THE VIRUS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Germany's numbers aren't showing a second wave yet. At least wait for evidence of it instead of "fears of" Yes, numbers will go up, hopefully not too far too fast and can be kept at a manageable level so we can start getting the economy going again until a vaccine is developed.

 

[ericttspikes]

Stop with the sensationalism already.  THERE IS NO WAY TO STOP THE VIRUS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Germany's numbers aren't showing a second wave yet. At least wait for evidence of it instead of "fears of" Yes, numbers will go up, hopefully not too far too fast and can be kept at a manageable level so we can start getting the economy going again until a vaccine is developed.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2KvNt5NG-GM

 

[shader]

Stop with the sensationalism already.  THERE IS NO WAY TO STOP THE VIRUS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Germany's numbers aren't showing a second wave yet. At least wait for evidence of it instead of "fears of" Yes, numbers will go up, hopefully not too far too fast and can be kept at a manageable level so we can start getting the economy going again until a vaccine is developed.

It's not sensationalism.  The fact that you posted this, shows that this isn't getting through to people. 

Without the lockdown procedures that have virtually brought the economy to a standstill, the virus will spread.  It's unavoidable. 

Friends, family, people I work with are all under this delusion that perhaps this will go away.  Or we can reopen and get back to normal.

But that's not going to happen.  The virus will spread.  Once countries and people come to terms with that, people can make plans.

One of the biggest frustrations I have, to be honest, is the fear that's out there around this virus.  My wife, as an example, is terrified of our kids getting it.  Now she's worried about this inflammatory thing that happened in NY.  The media drives fear, I believe that 100%.  

So now we have this world where the virus is going to spread, we are going to have to learn to live with it, yet we've scared the crap out of everybody.  

AWESOME

 

[JaxBill]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus/germany-surge-sounds-coronavirus-alarm-as-world-takes-steps-to-reopen-idUSKBN22N1QT?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=twitter

This is the problem the world has to figure out.  It's the problem that hasn't been figured out.  THERE IS NO WAY TO STOP THE VIRUS. It's not going to happen.

This is not rocket science.  When states re-open, the virus will start spreading again.  There's a 100% certainty of that happening. 

From the bottom of that link

Hard Pass

India, which has locked down its 1.3 billion people since March, reported a record daily rise in cases, yet said it would begin to restart passenger railway services, with 15 special trains, from Tuesday.

 

[jamny]

Nope, no doom and gloom in this thread.

 

[jamny]

It's not sensationalism.  The fact that you posted this, shows that this isn't getting through to people. 

Without the lockdown procedures that have virtually brought the economy to a standstill, the virus will spread.  It's unavoidable. 

Friends, family, people I work with are all under this delusion that perhaps this will go away.  Or we can reopen and get back to normal.

But that's not going to happen.  The virus will spread.  Once countries and people come to terms with that, people can make plans.

One of the biggest frustrations I have, to be honest, is the fear that's out there around this virus.  My wife, as an example, is terrified of our kids getting it.  Now she's worried about this inflammatory thing that happened in NY.  The media drives fear, I believe that 100%.  

So now we have this world where the virus is going to spread, we are going to have to learn to live with it, yet we've scared the crap out of everybody.  

AWESOME

If a vaccine is created and eventually we achieve herd immunity, maybe i a year or two or three, would you still say there is no way to stop the virus?

 

[shader]

Nope, no doom and gloom in this thread.

The doom and gloom is out there in the real world, not in this thread.  This thread is just a discussion of what's happening out there. 

 

[shader]

If a vaccine is created and eventually we achieve herd immunity, maybe i a year or two or three, would you still say there is no way to stop the virus?

Obviously those two things would stop the virus.  I'm not implying that it's going to never stop and it's going to be here forever.  I'd think my posting history kind of implies that, but if you need me to spell it out for you in the future, I will.

 

[jamny]

Obviously those two things would stop the virus.  I'm not implying that it's going to never stop and it's going to be here forever.  I'd think my posting history kind of implies that, but if you need me to spell it out for you in the future, I will.

So saying "THERE IS NO WAY TO STOP THE VIRUS" would not be accurate and some might consider it sensationalism and possibly doom and gloom. Not sure why you never seem to get that.

 

[Zegras11]

The doom and gloom is out there in the real world, not in this thread.  This thread is just a discussion of what's happening out there. 

THERE IS NO WAY TO STOP THE VIRUS. It's not going to happen.

Yep, not really happening in this thread. 

 

[sho nuff]

So saying "THERE IS NO WAY TO STOP THE VIRUS" would not be accurate and some might consider it sensationalism and possibly doom and gloom. Not sure why you never seem to get that.

THERE IS NO WAY TO STOP THE VIRUS. It's not going to happen.

Yep, not really happening in this thread. 

I think its clear its referring to the short term and re-opening as we are.

There will not be a vaccine anytime soon.  

 

[tonydead]

The doom and gloom is out there in the real world, not in this thread.  This thread is just a discussion of what's happening out there. 

We've never been anywhere close to "locked down" and the doom and gloom it way over blown. 

Tons of people out this weekend, great weather, sunlight kills the virus.

OPEN UP ALREADY!

 

[Don Hutson]

We've never been anywhere close to "locked down" and the doom and gloom it way over blown. 

Tons of people out this weekend, great weather, sunlight kills the virus.

OPEN UP ALREADY!

Username checks out

 

[tonydead]

3 weeks and WA will open up restaurants to 50% capacity.  Zero reason we can't be doing that right now, but, I will take it.

 

[sho nuff]

We've never been anywhere close to "locked down" and the doom and gloom it way over blown. 

Tons of people out this weekend, great weather, sunlight kills the virus.

OPEN UP ALREADY!

Sunlight kills the virus on surfaces of things after enough exposure.

 

[shader]

So saying "THERE IS NO WAY TO STOP THE VIRUS" would not be accurate and some might consider it sensationalism and possibly doom and gloom. Not sure why you never seem to get that.

Can you please not be so quick to criticize?  I have far too many posts in this thread to deal with this kind of garbage.  

Obviously, I know about vaccines and herd immunity.  You know that I know this.

Use your brain a bit.  

A vaccine is a 2021 solution.  There is a ton of economic devastation and a lot of lost lives before we get a vaccine.  Not sure how a vaccine applies to countries plans to re-open over the next month.  You know this, I know this, but you want to criticize.

Herd immunity is the actual point of my post.  It's inevitable.  You know this, I know this, but you just want to criticize.  You're such a joy.

 

[shader]

We've never been anywhere close to "locked down" and the doom and gloom it way over blown. 

Tons of people out this weekend, great weather, sunlight kills the virus.

OPEN UP ALREADY!

The opposite of "doom and gloom" is to spread outrageous lies?

 

[Capella]

Spent the day in Gruene with the family.... one of my favorite spots on earth.

Beautiful weather, went tubing, ate at Gristmill (2 hour wait), walked around town a bit shopping.  Nobody wearing masks but the people working (servers, cashiers, etc).

A fantastic day.

Highly recommend.  What a great reminder of what we were missing.

BREAKING NEWS: researchers have found world’s saddest attempt at a brag as man goes outside to shop and then gloats about it on a message board full of anonymous people 

 

[tonydead]

The opposite of "doom and gloom" is to spread outrageous lies?

I don't understand your question.  Are you accusing me of stating something untruthful?   

Here is what  you said:

THERE IS NO WAY TO STOP THE VIRUS!   

In all caps.    

There are a lot of ways to stop the virus.  If you didn't believe that you wouldn't be a proponent of staying at home.

We've never really locked down, the majority of people aren't staying at home and never did.  It's not the smoking gun, it's ridiculous.  Does it help, sure, but it's not fair to the 30% of the businesses that are forced to close.