General Malaise
Footballguy
Stay at Home extended in LA County the next 3 months. 
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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (13 Viewers)
- Thread starter Big League Chew
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belljr
Footballguy
Doesn't that seem crazy to declare that far off.Stay at Home extended in LA County the next 3 months.
So if in 30-45 days there is a sharp decline in numbers you still stay closed
General Malaise
Footballguy
So glad to hear. I've thought about starting a thread where we could all post about our personal experiences with the virus, but it seems like there's an unwritten rule to limit all coronavirus discussion in the FFA to this thread. Or maybe it actually is written somewhere.
Mr Anonymous
Footballguy
Lol, good luck with that LA.Stay at Home extended in LA County the next 3 months.
7 weeks to figure out a balance between shutdowns and being open with safety measures. Shaking my head. No mind paid to the fact that some simple measures have prevented spikes in deaths and cases from simply going to the grocery store.
Tired of this all or nothing approach by lefties and righties alike. We're way beyond the point where the two options are stay at home versus act like this is behind us.
shader
Footballguy
Actually, that report leak seemed deceptive to me and didn't have any information that we didn't already know. As an example it had Trousdale County with a +1,200 gain. That is info from 5/1 and 5/2. It was a prison in Trousdale County that had +1200 cases and has been in the numbers for 10 days.
What I'm referring to are numbers from today and yesterday.
shader
Footballguy
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beer 30
Footballguy
That makes it even worse then since those are real numbers you are talking about as opposed to a somewhat contained event.
Speaking of, I saw a story last night where a group of prisoners all drank from the same cup hoping to get the virus so they could get out of prison. I've never done time and hope to never but damn, how jacked up is it to do that to get out?
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
Well yesterdays numbers for tennessee had like 200 cases from a prison in one county. I dont know about any of the other counties or numbers. It was just one article i had seen.
ericttspikes
Footballguy
What was the positive percentages you were getting 2 weeks ago? Based on the 10647 tests since yesterday, the new cases present a 5% positive rate. That seems low.
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McBokonon
Footballguy
Doctors Without Borders going to Navajo Nation
First time they’ve ever been dispatched to the USA.
I know I tend to be snarky and that won’t change, but in all seriousness their situation is incredibly dire. I’m connected to the Navajo Nation Area Director for Indian Health Services and have managed to get several volunteers and local groups who are making masks to send them to my contact to ensure they get distributed appropriately. If you know anyone making masks or who have other supplies and they want them to go here but also want to make sure they don’t send them to someone who just wants to profit, send me a PM.
First time they’ve ever been dispatched to the USA.
I know I tend to be snarky and that won’t change, but in all seriousness their situation is incredibly dire. I’m connected to the Navajo Nation Area Director for Indian Health Services and have managed to get several volunteers and local groups who are making masks to send them to my contact to ensure they get distributed appropriately. If you know anyone making masks or who have other supplies and they want them to go here but also want to make sure they don’t send them to someone who just wants to profit, send me a PM.
shader
Footballguy
Just looked, it was 171 in a prison in Tipton County yesterday.
I'm certainly not panicking or super worried.. But when you loosen restrictions, you expect numbers to rise, that's just how it works. So I fully expect that the halt in cases will end, and they will go back up. We have two straight days where it appears that's happening, right when we'd expect it to. We will see as the week goes on whether this was an anomaly or not.
shader
Footballguy
snogger
Footballguy
Any rumors yet on the US/Canada Border??
Searched around and only things I can find are that it was closed on April 18th for 30 days.. 6 days to that expiring and not even any rumors I can find.
Have/had a
trip planned for the week of Memorial Day.. I assume they will extend another 30 days..
But who knows with these leaders and need to cancel my PTO next week if it is a no-go. :(
Searched around and only things I can find are that it was closed on April 18th for 30 days.. 6 days to that expiring and not even any rumors I can find.
Have/had a
trip planned for the week of Memorial Day.. I assume they will extend another 30 days.. But who knows with these leaders and need to cancel my PTO next week if it is a no-go. :(
ericttspikes
Footballguy
I guess that is what is confusing to me about stuff like the Worldmeter data; what metric actually shows improvement of the situation on country by country or state by state basis? In my mind it seems like in addition to hospitalization rates that percent positives is most valid, yet most charts go by new cases. IL had the most ever new cases today, 4k, but they had the most tests ever with almost 30k. Positive rate around 13%, which is about where it has been the past week or so. 20% was the norm 2 weeks ago. So the more a state or country tests the worse the numbers can appear. The 4k of new cases just destroyed the the downward trajectory of the case chart for IL and i guarantee people will be freaking out by the case number and not even think about the amount of tests or the percent positive. In the end, I'm not sure what the data accomplishes.
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
Nursing and long term care make up 1.6% of US population and account for 40% of covid19 deaths.
shader
Footballguy
I agree that for awhile in the US, case counts were irrelevant. It seemed like the more we tested, the more cases we found.
But once a state stabilizes their testing (as TN has), the daily numbers have more relevance.
I think we all realize that daily numbers are not an exact science, but they are the only leading indicators we have, so we have to use them.
Here's something I've been trying to figure out for awhile now: What does the positive testing rate actually tell us? I guess I can see the argument that a low testing rate suggests that a wide range of people are being tested, but since we don't really know the actual rate (ie, the expected rate if everyone were tested), it's really hard to say what's "low" or "high", right? Or has anyone done random testing of a population for the sole purpose of determining what the actual rate is? After all, you don't actually need to test everyone as long as you get a representative sample.
This whole pandemic has reminded me why I always hated statistics classes. I think I find this stuff interesting, but when I really get down in the weeds it just makes my brain hurt.
sporthenry
Footballguy
I'm someone that wants to err on the side of caution. I think some of these reopenings seem a bit premature but this also seems premature since most seem to think it will lessen a bit in the summer. Given it was a comment from a public health official and there aren't a ton of details, I want to reserve judgment. But my understanding was that these precautions were more to flatten the curve and allow our healthcare system to respond with capacity. I think we've mostly done that. Not saying we should have baseball games with fans elbow to ####### but you can't just lock everything down indefinitely.Stay at Home extended in LA County the next 3 months.
belljr
Footballguy
And then you have these type of people
SOMERS POINT WOMAN CHARGED FOR NOT WEARING MASK IN STORE
EDDIE DAVIS
May 11, 2020
A Somers Point woman was spotlighted by the New Jersey Attorney General's office for bad behavior after refusing to wear a face mask in a local store and coughing in the face of another customer.
In a weekly rundown of covid-19 law enforcement issues in the state, Shakiya J. Duncan, 28, of Somers Point is listed for being charged on May 6 by the Somers Point Police with disorderly conduct and violating the emergency orders.
The report says Duncan was told several times by employees of Big Lots to wear a mask but refused to wear one. Duncan was standing very close to the woman in front of her in the checkout line, and when that woman asked her to please step back, Duncan allegedly screamed at her, cursed, and leaned forward to cough in the victim’s face.
SOMERS POINT WOMAN CHARGED FOR NOT WEARING MASK IN STORE
EDDIE DAVIS
May 11, 2020
A Somers Point woman was spotlighted by the New Jersey Attorney General's office for bad behavior after refusing to wear a face mask in a local store and coughing in the face of another customer.
In a weekly rundown of covid-19 law enforcement issues in the state, Shakiya J. Duncan, 28, of Somers Point is listed for being charged on May 6 by the Somers Point Police with disorderly conduct and violating the emergency orders.
The report says Duncan was told several times by employees of Big Lots to wear a mask but refused to wear one. Duncan was standing very close to the woman in front of her in the checkout line, and when that woman asked her to please step back, Duncan allegedly screamed at her, cursed, and leaned forward to cough in the victim’s face.
The combo of close quarters, shared staff and high risk individuals is a deadly combo. My pharmacy serves several and I’m worried about an outbreak. So far we seem have dodged the bullet though AZ refuses to release the names of care homes with cases.
JbizzleMan
Footballguy
147k deaths by August 4th in the latest model
![[scooter]](/data/avatars/m/22/22287.jpg?1659477690){kind=avatar}
[scooter]
Footballguy
Large sections of the brp near Asheville closed to keep tourists away. I feel for the citizens of the area facing increasing risks because people want to vacation.
JaxBill
Footballguy
Yes. The original model, when it was forecasting the necessity of tens of thousands of ventilators, had 260k deaths nationwide by August 1. (And that was assuming total lockdown until 5/31)
belljr
Footballguy
Duncan said the reports are false and some white customer saw Duncan, a black woman cutting her in line to go back to another person she was shopping with.
“It’s really deformation of character. I’m not leaving my house without a mask nor will I ever cough in someone’s face under any circumstances,” she said. “A white customer was mad because she thought I jumped a line when I joined [a friend] at the front because we were together.”
Duncan even said Big Lots wrote a statement on her behalf in her defense, but she still made today’s statewide report by the Attorney General’s Office. Duncan claims she’s in training to become a correctional officer and would never do the things she was accused of doing.
I'm not discounting the loss of these lives, but IIRC I remember seeing that 50% of nursing home residents pass away in the first year of residence. Not discounting the COVID19 impact at all, just adding for perspective.
-fish-
Footballguy
This is being a little overstated. There's some editorializing that doesn't follow the quotes below:Stay at Home extended in LA County the next 3 months.
Washington, which is part of a joint approach with Oregon and California, announced a four phase approach that would ideally reopen just about everything by the end of July if there are no setbacks and we get robust testing up and running. In the meantime, certain things are been loosened as we hit the benchmarks for each phase. So yes, restrictions will remain in place through July, but the current restrictions more than likely won't. Oregon has already announced restrictions on large gatherings will be in place through September. Sorry, but if OSU/Ohio State happens it will be in an empty Autzen stadium.
The main factors are number of new cases, number of hospital beds and the ability to perform tests and do contact tracing. Since nobody really has contact tracing in place, I doubt any of the three West Coast states is going to commit to reopening on anything but the most conservative schedule.
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
I actually thought that 50% of deaths were in their first year. So if you had 100 people and ten died, 5 would have been first year residents.
Eta: just looked it up actually you were right. In fact it might be as high as 60%.
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waiver wire
Footballguy
no official word yet from up here but the premier's of Ontario , Quebec and BC have said publicly they don't want it open anytime soonAny rumors yet on the US/Canada Border??
Searched around and only things I can find are that it was closed on April 18th for 30 days.. 6 days to that expiring and not even any rumors I can find.
Have/had a
But who knows with these leaders and need to cancel my PTO next week if it is a no-go. :(
Battersbox
Footballguy
This is from Morningstar, but it's old. I doubt it's changed much anyway:
Five months: The typical length of nursing-home stay for patients who eventually died in the nursing home.
https://www.morningstar.com/articles/564139/40-must-know-statistics-about-long-term-care
snogger
Footballguy
last month one of the lodge owners in Ontario, who is on one of the tourist/visitor boards said the word in those meetings was July... :(
But haven't heard anything from him yet...
Don Hutson
Footballguy
I'm really having trouble understanding why people think wearing a mask is so bad. It's not uncomfortable at all. And it seems to be the tough guys that are whining the most. I guess a guy can have tattoos, motorcycles, and a bunch of guns but their delicate snowflake of a face is too sensitive to handle wearing a mask. Actually, it seems to be big, tough guys that whine the most about everything.
shader
Footballguy
I've seen 4-5 articles/tweets today about Georgia not seeing a major explosion since re-open.
First of all, this is a ridiculously stupid attitude, but one I think many of us saw coming.
Like with Tennessee, we are just now at the point where we would expect to start seeing numbers change.
Today Georgia had 846 new cases. Not an explosion, but definitely above their 10-day average.
The good news for any state that's opening up is that no one is really opening up to anything that resembles our February lifestyles, so we shouldn't see an explosion of cases.
The bad news is that back then every state started with 1 case and no matter how contagious a virus is, it takes awhile to go from 1 to a meaningful number.
Georgia has 846 brand new people with the virus TODAY, and they are reopening in that environment. So we won't see the same explosive rate of growth, but the growth will be plenty fast enough to rather quickly see lockdowns re-instituted.
My meaningless opinion is that any state that reopens will decide to lockdown again anywhere from 4-6 weeks after they reopen.
First of all, this is a ridiculously stupid attitude, but one I think many of us saw coming.
Like with Tennessee, we are just now at the point where we would expect to start seeing numbers change.
Today Georgia had 846 new cases. Not an explosion, but definitely above their 10-day average.
The good news for any state that's opening up is that no one is really opening up to anything that resembles our February lifestyles, so we shouldn't see an explosion of cases.
The bad news is that back then every state started with 1 case and no matter how contagious a virus is, it takes awhile to go from 1 to a meaningful number.
Georgia has 846 brand new people with the virus TODAY, and they are reopening in that environment. So we won't see the same explosive rate of growth, but the growth will be plenty fast enough to rather quickly see lockdowns re-instituted.
My meaningless opinion is that any state that reopens will decide to lockdown again anywhere from 4-6 weeks after they reopen.
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D-Day
Footballguy
I wear a mask whenever I go out. As a matter of fact, I think women are finding me more attractive wearing a mask than not.
Wait.
D-Day
Footballguy
-fish-
Footballguy
No way Oregon agrees to move it to a neutral site. I could see them trading with OSU and just switching years for the home and home.
belljr
Footballguy
D-Day
Footballguy
How much do you think Oregon would make playing in an empty stadium versus a full stadium somewhere else? If Jerryworld offers $4 million, I think Oregon jumps on it. IF Ohio State is allowing fans at the home game, they may switch with some concessions from Oregon.
-fish-
Footballguy
They'll still get TV revenue and Phil Knight isn't hurting for cash. They're not giving up a home game, even in an empty stadium, to play OSU at a neutral site.
Pretty interesting stats (from 2010)....
65%: The percentage of people who entered a nursing home who died within one year of admission.
Five months: The typical length of nursing-home stay for patients who eventually died in the nursing home.
40%: The expected percentage of deaths in the U.S. occurring in nursing homes by 2020. (almost like they knew ahead of time?)
moleculo
Footballguy
There's good fishing up in Quebec.no official word yet from up here but the premier's of Ontario , Quebec and BC have said publicly they don't want it open anytime soonAny rumors yet on the US/Canada Border??
Searched around and only things I can find are that it was closed on April 18th for 30 days.. 6 days to that expiring and not even any rumors I can find.
Have/had a
But who knows with these leaders and need to cancel my PTO next week if it is a no-go. :(
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