DallasDMac
Footballguy
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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (11 Viewers)
- Thread starter Big League Chew
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When you say numbers, what are you talking about? Tests, positives, hospitalizations, deaths?
shader
Footballguy
shader
Footballguy
Of course I’m correct in this instance. But not because I’m smart, it’s because I’m literally just repeating known info about the virus.Grace Under Pressure said:
If cases rise, so will hospitalizations and deaths. That’s indisputable and the fact that so many try to argue that, is why this country is handling this virus so poorly.
prosopis
Arizona Chupacabra
Today we found out that our regular UPS driver who makes deliveries where work was diagnosed with Covid. Supplys at work are getting tough to come by. I ran out of my size surgical gloves and am now in one size smaller and I am not sure how long that supply will last. I understand patients frustrations but I am getting tired of their complaining that we ask them to wear a mask and follow some simple rules when coming in for surgery. You would think people coming in for surgery would be pretty polite no matter what but that has not been the case.
Oh well, just stay the course and do the best you can, stay humble.
Oh well, just stay the course and do the best you can, stay humble.
My first thought is the sheer number of people in California. Even with all the recent positives, they are still only 30th in cases per capita. I will have to research CA's recent daily numbers.
shader
Footballguy
pollardsvision
Footballguy
Florida and Texas both in that same range, per capita.
As much as we talk about different states handling it differently, I think, ultimately, most are doing relatively similar things. And there's only a certain level of compliance you'll get on most things anyway. And the lack of cooperation from some will always undermine those that are cooperating.
Obviously, the larger outbreaks will rotate, but I suspect, ultimately, the impacts for each state/region will be based almost entirely on population.
Blue or red states be damned. People are people and COVID doesn't care.
One thing is for damn sure.....declaring victory over COVID is a mistake.
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I challenge you to find a single instance of anyone saying if cases rise, hospitalizations and deaths will remain the same. You were saying cases, hospitalizations, and deaths will all rise at the same rate, and basically everyone called you out on that. Every single person here agrees with you that more cases means more sick and dead people. You are only arguing with yourself.
The Z Machine
Footballguy
It wasn't a mystery back in March either. Epidemics follow a very regular and repeatable pattern. Breaking transmission chains though widespread behavior change is necessary, but it seems Americans didn't have the capacity to sacrifice for the common good like other countries did.shader said:
shader
Footballguy
They will rise at the same or similar rates that they always have. I figured that part was obvious, we’ve only been talking about it for 4-5 months. Your being nit-picky doesn’t help things, so let’s move on.
shader
Footballguy
It’s tough to compare the CA and NY curves because CA is doing a very good job of testing now. When the NY outbreak started, testing was in a terrible state.
You are flat out wrong on this one. No way in hell will the death rate rise at the same or even similar rate. For proof, let's provide today's stats per Worldometer. That way we can revisit this in a week, a month, 2 months, etc.
As of 24 June - 124,281 deaths out of 2,463,271 cases equals 5.05% death rate. I will bet you anything this number will be under 5 in a month.
tri-man 47
Footballguy
I was just looking at today's data and Covid worldometers and had noticed the same thing about Cali, Florida, and Texas. They're all around 4,500-5,000 cases per million right now. States in the NE are around 15-20,000/M and Illinois is at 10,000/M. So I suspect that with lower numbers, the above three states didn't have the dramatic, cautionary crisis as in the NE, so they let themselves get a little bit overconfident about the matter ...the virus didn't hit hard enough to put an appropriate amount of fear into them, and now they're paying the price.
Overall, 173,000 new cases worldwide today- the second highest ever - and another 5,000 deaths. Brazil with 40,000 new cases, but the U.S. with 39,000 new cases - our highest ever daily count. We've really messed this up.
Sammy3469
Footballguy
It only inevitable because we chose to make it inevitable. There are plenty of places in the world that are more or less containing it for the time being.
Grace Under Pressure
Footballguy
ragincajun
Footballguy
Houston starting to look rough. Houston also has a huge medical industry so this is a tad concerning.
https://www.khou.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/texas-hospital-icus-crowded-with-covid-19-patients-as-coronavirus-continues-to-spread/285-aad0788d-256e-4454-8e3f-87f9c7956680
https://www.khou.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/texas-hospital-icus-crowded-with-covid-19-patients-as-coronavirus-continues-to-spread/285-aad0788d-256e-4454-8e3f-87f9c7956680
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
I 420 like a chimney typically. In the last few days I have actually cut way back, I can't honestly remember the last time, yeah I can. California 2000, when I landed there I became almost daily. I hate to say this but it's gotten worse in the last few years, half ounce a week easy I would say.
I know smokers have had more challenges. I had not heard much about pot smokers being at a higher risk but logically I would understand why.
-I'd like to hear more and I'd like anyone that has and good info on this to speak up.
On the other side, can we all put out a virtual healing hand for your best friend? That sucks and I hope he is able to get on top of this. Hard to understand it all until you either go thru it or have someone close to you experience it.
Tell your friend he is going to make it. Talk to him about the next time you all can get together and what you all are going to do in order to celebrate him kicking this thing.
Cheers!
leftcoastguy7
Footballguy
I can only pray that at least maybe we have learned enough to spare future generations from our mistakes.
culdeus
Footballguy
This is based on the site I put the link up for about every 2-3 days.
https://www.tmc.edu/coronavirus-updates/tmc-2-week-projection-using-bed-occupancy-growth/
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Insoxicated
don't hurt yourself with that giant limb youre stepping out... predicting a 0.05% drop in a month? Whoa!!!! Some folks in here have been saying it'll drop from 5-6% to 1-2% for months now.... hasn't happened yet.
Would have but you still can get a test unless you lie or are going to get admitted.
Some folks in here have been saying it'll drop from 5-6% to 1-2% for months now.... hasn't happened yet.
cheese
Footballguy
Well, I’m pretty sure my kids won’t be going either way so I’m hoping for remote. They sent out a survey for parents to tell them who would be coming back in the fall if they do regular school. They also asked if we’d be more or less likely to send them if masks were required of all students. We will see what happens.
It doesn’t surprise me that people are doing whatever they want.
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
Your last two statements are contradictory, but I agree we don’t know atm.
ARDS from all causes is associated with morbidity and mortality though.
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Terminalxylem
Footballguy
Yes, mechanical ventilation is delayed as long as possible, longer than is typical for the degree of respiratory distress. Steroids are gaining traction, and anticoagulants are being used in many ICUs, though data is still limited.
Agree with your overall assessment.
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
Unless you’re having the DNR discussion, I’d be careful about judging those who do. While certainly some doctors avoid realistic end-of-life discussions, I think societal understanding and acceptance of the dying process is a much bigger problem.
My point was the number will drop, not rise. The only place I have data for the entire time is CT, and we have risen.
Some folks in here have been saying it'll drop from 5-6% to 1-2% for months now.... hasn't happened yet.
24 Jun - 4,287 deaths out of 45,913 cases equals 9.34% death rate
24 May - 3,693 deaths out of 40,468 cases equals 9.13% death rate
24 Apr - 1,764 deaths out of 23,921 cases equals 7.37% death rate
24 Mar - 12 deaths out of 618 cases equals 1.94% death rate
So yeah, I guess I am going out on a limb by saying the death rate will drop.
I didn't realize how close we are to the world average. 485,187 deaths out of 9,535,219 cases equals 5.09% death rate.
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In most states, MDs don't need permission to write a DNR, but generally do seek family approval for fear of lawsuits. When a patient is on heavy doses of multiple pressers, high vent settings, multi-organ failure with a possible anoxic injury on top of that....plus 80+ years old....there comes a point where MDs really should put their foot down. It's probably not reasonable for us to expect a grieving family member to make the reasonable decision. Oddly, the more religious folks are often the most insistent on continuing. "Jesus will heal her and she'll walk out of here!"
Really? She's 83, and for all intents and purposes already gone. If you have faith lets turn off the machines and drugs keeping her heart beating and let God decide. Doing everything isn't faith in God, it's desperation placing unwarranted faith in man and his science (that you're simultaneously denying!)
I have had this discussion, many times (much more carefully obviously). It's frustrating.
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Still think when all is said and done that rate is about half of that. Too many asymptomatics and mildly ill still not even being tested.
DallasDMac
Footballguy
We go in and sign our DNR paperwork, wills, etc. Monday. The appointment seems timely given everything going on.
shader
Footballguy
Dezbelief
Footballguy
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shader
Footballguy
Most serology tests (Assuming they are accurate) show a death rate of 1-1.5%. That “appears” to be the death rate, and I haven’t seen anything that has significantly altered that. We should, of course, see a similar rate going forward.
Some folks in here have been saying it'll drop from 5-6% to 1-2% for months now.... hasn't happened yet.
But that doesn’t mean the reported death rate doesn’t have some meaning too. For those that get the virus and decide to go get tested, the death rate is still in the 3-5% range for reported cases, which is, by the way, the range that the WHO posted way back in late Feb when they didn’t think there were many asymptomatic cases.
shader
Footballguy
180k by October? Unless we get some really quick policy changes and lockdowns, the USA hits that by the end of July
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But I will point out again, this doesn't mean everyone will get a vaccination. Many people in this country are against them. I think many just assume everyone will get a vaccination when available. Going to make for good times at schools once one is approved.
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
I don’t think it’s fear of lawsuits...it’s respecting the wishes of surrogate decision makers. As you know, accepting the inevitability of death is usually a process that doesn’t happen instantaneously.
But I agree we perform a lot of futile care. Given the limitations of addressing the topic during acute illness, the time to discuss code status is when people are (relatively) healthy, ideally able to make their own decisions. Primary care physicians should be having 90%+ of these conversations, before the patient ever makes it to the ICU.
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
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