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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (22 Viewers)

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No access to the facility until Saturday so no practice, no meetings (although I assume Zoom is fine).
I see.

It would seem, then, that the question of whether those teams' next games will be played should already be a settled issue at this time, right now. Yet I bet the league's line, right now, is something to the effect of "We'll make a determination at a later time".

 
The issue is, cases/hospitilizations/deaths are down because of measures put in place. it is terrible policy to once again resort to opening everything up with no restrictions for we are doomed to repeat this again
Florida has been pretty much open the majority of the time. 

 
My wife's cousin is going through with a wedding.  They did cancel the reception, but they intend to have an indoor wedding at a church (catholic long ceremony) with at least 50-75 people.  They say each person/family will have their own pew with a pew in-between, as it is a big church.  I am telling my wife she should not even consider going.  Am I unreasonable? 
I’d make an excuse to skip that without a pandemic.

 
I am in the wedding business and oversee 12 locations.  We’ve been doing weddings since the start of August, primarily outdoors.  We have a massive amount of precautions in place, are limiting capacity (100 or under) so tables can be socially distanced, eliminated dancing, etc etc etc.    We’ve had not one COVID case traced back to our events.  
I actually have an employee who just confirmed positive with the exposure traced to a wedding.  I don't know the details of the wedding though.

 
Agree with nirad3 here. However, there are A LOT of ways for a group of 75 people to execute this incorrectly.

Masked the entire time indoors needs to be de rigeur ... no "it's just family" exceptions. An every-other-pew system maintains plenty of distance during the ceremony itself --- but that should be maintained before and after the service, as well. There shouldn't be a bunch of close congregation before and after, and there shouldn't be any hugging or close-talking, even for family people haven't seen in years. In short -- a lot of social instincts will have to be conscientiously overridden, and all temptations to cut corners have to be beaten back.

Now ... that said ... a few slip-ups here and there won't doom everyone. It's more a concern with the overall ethic of the exercise. If the 75 people kind of collectively agree that "this is a no-mask zone" and/or a "no social-distancing zone", then things break down in a hurry. Conversely, a handful of people forgetting to toe the line a few times won't sink everyone.
I don't trust these people.

 
I remember that earlier on, Florida was making an effort to stop vehicles from Louisiana (and other hot-spot states) from entering via I-10.
In daytime hours for about 6 days, maybe less.  And those that came in were not tracked, or turned away.  It was covid theater.  It created traffic, more than anything.

The primary restriction was keeping out of state travelers from short term rentals.  But there was no enforcement of this either.  The enforcement was at the beach level and park level in that what was the point of going to Florida with no beach or park to travel to?  That was lifted in early June.  Perhaps the Tues. after Mem day?

 
Science, math, history...the pandemic has been an indictment of our educational system as much as anything.
I've found you through it all to be very balanced in this thread.  Curious your own thoughts as to actual true case fatality rate of this disease?  Considering all factors, asymptomatic, those never tested, etc, etc?

 
Other than probably April, I'd agree.  At least in Central Florida.  Closing the boat ramps was probably the most ridiculous of all decisions along the way.
Statewide, restaurants and bars were closed in June. And when they reopened they were at 50% capacity until just last week, right?

 
Statewide, restaurants and bars were closed in June. And when they reopened they were at 50% capacity until just last week, right?
Restaurants were open here May 1, we actually went to one on that night.  Bars only have primarily been closed, but most of them around here unless they were straight night club just started serving boiled peanuts and tacos to get around the bar only rules.  Limited seating for sure, but not nearly a lockdown.  At least in central florida.  Most of the mask mandates went into effect during the early summer surge.

 
There have been restrictions, but with minor work arounds many places have been able to stay open. 
This has pretty much been the case everywhere, no? You might have the idea that Florida has been much looser than the rest of the country, but I'm not sure that's true.

Now, if your angle is more about the enforcement end -- or how seriously the local powers-that-be have taken their own mandates -- your take makes more sense.

 
This has pretty much been the case everywhere, no? You might have the idea that Florida has been much looser than the rest of the country, but I'm not sure that's true.

Now, if your angle is more about the enforcement end -- or how seriously the local powers-that-be have taken their own mandates -- your take makes more sense.
I was more just responding to the faux outrage over Florida lifting "restrictions."  We've been able to go to bars and restaurants for months.  But, there have been places that fully abide by the rules and it has hurt their businesses.  I hope this allows them to get back on their feet.

 
Nope, other systems have failed us more. 
While other systems have failed us - chiefly public health (WHO, CDC and local), private businesses, the POTUS and media, I think we need to own up to our individual role in this mess - theres's plenty of international data from which to derive reasonable policy and behavior.

Which systems did you have in mind?

 
While other systems have failed us - chiefly public health (WHO, CDC and local), private businesses, the POTUS and media, I think we need to own up to our individual role in this mess - theres's plenty of international data from which to derive reasonable policy and behavior.

Which systems did you have in mind?
In particular the CDC and the federal response to the crisis.  In general, I think most local public health agencies have done OK, and the missteps have bene caused by crappy CDC leadership. 

 
No kidding - is there anyone, besides the bride(?), who actually enjoys weddings?
Lol. You folks are a barrel of fun. He’ll yeah there are people who enjoy weddings. I’ve been to plenty that have been blasts. Mine was a ton of fun. Even been to Vegas for one. Unless you’re a stick in the mud, it’s pretty easy to have fun unless it’s a horrible wedding.

 
Lol. You folks are a barrel of fun. He’ll yeah there are people who enjoy weddings. I’ve been to plenty that have been blasts. Mine was a ton of fun. Even been to Vegas for one. Unless you’re a stick in the mud, it’s pretty easy to have fun unless it’s a horrible wedding.
I got married in Vegas. It was awesome. 

 
I've found you through it all to be very balanced in this thread.  Curious your own thoughts as to actual true case fatality rate of this disease?  Considering all factors, asymptomatic, those never tested, etc, etc?
As I've said multiple times, CFR isn't the most relevant number for Covid-19 - hospitalization rate, ICU occupancy and length of stay are. All of those are exceedingly high relative to other common, transmissible infections, including influenza. Coupled with its high infectivity/contagion and time/labor-intensive hospital care, this creates a perfect storm for rapidly overwhelming healthcare systems. And covid's long incubation period + potential for asymptomatic spread + superspreading makes it tricky to contain/predict. Plus don't forget the potential for long-term organ damage/debility among survivors, whose prevalence we still don't quite have a handle on.

Honestly, I don't care much about the CFR, but it looks like it's gonna end up somewhere between 2-3%. Note, this is Case Fatality Rate/ratio, which is the ratio of deaths among those with symptomatic infection. This differs from the Infection Fatality Rate/ratio, which measures deaths/total infections, including asymptomatic individuals. People mistakenly use the terms interchangeably, in addition to mortality rates based on deaths per 100K population. For Covid-19, IFR is probably 0.5-1%, perhaps as low as 0.2% in some estimates. For comparison purposes, seasonal flu has a CFR around 0.1% and IFR much less than 0.1%, while the 1918 pandemic strain was thought to have a CFR ~2.5%, roughly that of covid-19. And all the imprecision associated with covid numbers applies to influenza, and then some, as some estimates are based on the prevalence of influenza-like-illness (ILI), which is a diagnosis determined solely by symptoms, coupled with statistical models - not definitive testing of all cases. As an aside, there're a bunch of sh!tty rapid flu tests out there as well, with potential for false positives and negatives, just like SARS-CoV-2 testing.

Of course, all the political nonsense and intentional misinformation compounded by testing inconsistency/lack of availability makes all the numbers suspect. But count me in the group that believes the death toll is grossly understated, as evidenced by excess mortality data. While I agree there are a ton of people who were never tested, asymptomatic and/or received inaccurate tests, too, the badness is very real. I've seen it first-hand, where I've watched covid patients crash right before my eyes, fill multiple floors of our hospital and overwhelm our ICU. I've taken care of patients for nearly 20 years, and never have seen anything like it - the worst flu season doesn't come close, and HIV didn't infect so many people, so quickly. And winter isn't looking promising for an improvement in the disease's trajectory.

 
Lol. You folks are a barrel of fun. He’ll yeah there are people who enjoy weddings. I’ve been to plenty that have been blasts. Mine was a ton of fun. Even been to Vegas for one. Unless you’re a stick in the mud, it’s pretty easy to have fun unless it’s a horrible wedding.
tbh even the horrible ones can be fun to think about later.  They all have their moments.  

I mean I've been to hugely expensive weddings that sucked, and trashy ones that it was public knowledge the couple was going to film the later night festivities with a professional camera crew (that was epic).  

 
Lol. You folks are a barrel of fun. He’ll yeah there are people who enjoy weddings. I’ve been to plenty that have been blasts. Mine was a ton of fun. Even been to Vegas for one. Unless you’re a stick in the mud, it’s pretty easy to have fun unless it’s a horrible wedding.
Meh. Has nothing to do with muddy sticks, just a difference in opinion what constitutes "fun". And I've been to several weddings in Hawaii.

Glad somebody likes them though.

 
The issue is, cases/hospitilizations/deaths are down because of measures put in place. it is terrible policy to once again resort to opening everything up with no restrictions for we are doomed to repeat this again
This is a statement I hear from a lot of states...Georgia has had almost NO restrictions since May, and cases/hospitalizations are down the same as many places WITH restrictions.  We had the summer bump like most places, and steady decline since...even with schools fully open, bars, gyms, restaurants fully open and no restrictions.

 
I bet you are real fun at parties
Huh?  Weddings are for the bride, some kooky family members, and kids in their 20's.  It's all downhill from there.  A TON of time for not that much, dwindling fun.  Million things I'd rather do than sit through yet another wedding.

Last thing I'm doing during covid is going to a wedding.

 
Lol. You folks are a barrel of fun. He’ll yeah there are people who enjoy weddings. I’ve been to plenty that have been blasts. Mine was a ton of fun. Even been to Vegas for one. Unless you’re a stick in the mud, it’s pretty easy to have fun unless it’s a horrible wedding.
The initial question from Leroy Jenkins was about going to what would just be the wedding/ceremony portion.  He said the reception was canceled, and it would be a traditional catholic mass/wedding.   Fish commented that he would find a way to skip that, and others agreed.  Exactly what part of a traditional catholic medding is "tons of fun"??

 
The initial question from Leroy Jenkins was about going to what would just be the wedding/ceremony portion.  He said the reception was canceled, and it would be a traditional catholic mass/wedding.   Fish commented that he would find a way to skip that, and others agreed.  Exactly what part of a traditional catholic medding is "tons of fun"??
The follow up posts were about weddings in general. I didn’t reply to Leroy and I wasn’t talking about CV-19 weddings which obviously aren’t the same fun. Regular weddings have been a lot of fun in my experience but I haven’t been to one in forever because I’m older and friends don’t have weddings anymore. Divorces yes, weddings no. Also, it was all said in jest to people who didn’t think weddings were fun. It’s still OK to try and have fun.

 
As I've said multiple times, CFR isn't the most relevant number for Covid-19 - hospitalization rate, ICU occupancy and length of stay are. All of those are exceedingly high relative to other common, transmissible infections, including influenza. Coupled with its high infectivity/contagion and time/labor-intensive hospital care, this creates a perfect storm for rapidly overwhelming healthcare systems. And covid's long incubation period + potential for asymptomatic spread + superspreading makes it tricky to contain/predict. Plus don't forget the potential for long-term organ damage/debility among survivors, whose prevalence we still don't quite have a handle on.

Honestly, I don't care much about the CFR, but it looks like it's gonna end up somewhere between 2-3%. Note, this is Case Fatality Rate/ratio, which is the ratio of deaths among those with symptomatic infection. This differs from the Infection Fatality Rate/ratio, which measures deaths/total infections, including asymptomatic individuals. People mistakenly use the terms interchangeably, in addition to mortality rates based on deaths per 100K population. For Covid-19, IFR is probably 0.5-1%, perhaps as low as 0.2% in some estimates. For comparison purposes, seasonal flu has a CFR around 0.1% and IFR much less than 0.1%, while the 1918 pandemic strain was thought to have a CFR ~2.5%, roughly that of covid-19. And all the imprecision associated with covid numbers applies to influenza, and then some, as some estimates are based on the prevalence of influenza-like-illness (ILI), which is a diagnosis determined solely by symptoms, coupled with statistical models - not definitive testing of all cases. As an aside, there're a bunch of sh!tty rapid flu tests out there as well, with potential for false positives and negatives, just like SARS-CoV-2 testing.

Of course, all the political nonsense and intentional misinformation compounded by testing inconsistency/lack of availability makes all the numbers suspect. But count me in the group that believes the death toll is grossly understated, as evidenced by excess mortality data. While I agree there are a ton of people who were never tested, asymptomatic and/or received inaccurate tests, too, the badness is very real. I've seen it first-hand, where I've watched covid patients crash right before my eyes, fill multiple floors of our hospital and overwhelm our ICU. I've taken care of patients for nearly 20 years, and never have seen anything like it - the worst flu season doesn't come close, and HIV didn't infect so many people, so quickly. And winter isn't looking promising for an improvement in the disease's trajectory.
This is an excellent description. However anytime I see the .2% IFR mentioned, I feel obligated to point out that nearly .3% of NYC's population has already died from COVID. 

 
@[icon] - How are the folks doing?
Dad was good yesterday with O2 Sats @ 97  (about day 10-12 from infection).... symptoms had gone down. Thought we may have been out of the woods but today he's coughing a good bit more and O2sat dropping as low as 95. :unsure:  

Mom felt bad Sunday so started a Zpac. Felt better since. This morning she officially tested positive. Currently asymptomatic. She's highest risk. 
 

Brother (41 fit) was patient 0 we think. He's been struggling the most, sleeping inclined, chest pressure, coughing. Ordered him a pulse oximeter and his O2 Sats are running 93-95. Not horrible but not good. Told hulk if they drop any lower he needs to go to the hospital :(   
 

Thanks for asking GB 

 
This is an excellent description. However anytime I see the .2% IFR mentioned, I feel obligated to point out that nearly .3% of NYC's population has already died from COVID. 
Sure. It was early in the pandemic, when we were intubating people too quickly, increasing their risk of mortality. Dexamethasone and convalescent plasma weren’t being used either - although imperfect data, both show mortality benefit in some circumstances.

Most importantly, and contrary to what the media may have portrayed, their healthcare system was overwhelmed. At the minimum, errors were made because of the workload. But I also suspect they made some tough choices to limit care based on resource availability. Heck, my hospital was never near the level of those in NYC, but the idea was discussed, and likely implemented in subtle ways. It’s not difficult to direct discussion to forego ICU transfer, for example.

 
Huh?  Weddings are for the bride, some kooky family members, and kids in their 20's.  It's all downhill from there.  A TON of time for not that much, dwindling fun.  Million things I'd rather do than sit through yet another wedding.

Last thing I'm doing during covid is going to a wedding.
Agreed that the actual wedding sucks....but it is the after party that can still be hellacious fun well into your 50's.  

 
Dad was good yesterday with O2 Sats @ 97  (about day 10-12 from infection).... symptoms had gone down. Thought we may have been out of the woods but today he's coughing a good bit more and O2sat dropping as low as 95. :unsure:  

Mom felt bad Sunday so started a Zpac. Felt better since. This morning she officially tested positive. Currently asymptomatic. She's highest risk. 
 

Brother (41 fit) was patient 0 we think. He's been struggling the most, sleeping inclined, chest pressure, coughing. Ordered him a pulse oximeter and his O2 Sats are running 93-95. Not horrible but not good. Told hulk if they drop any lower he needs to go to the hospital :(   
 

Thanks for asking GB 
If he’s running as low as 93%, you should talk to his doctor. Both dexamethasone and convalescent plasma are often offered to patients at that level. If his primary doctor says it’s not needed, I’d strongly consider going to the emergency room of an academic center.

 
If he’s running as low as 93%, you should talk to his doctor. Both dexamethasone and convalescent plasma are often offered to patients at that level. If his primary doctor says it’s not needed, I’d strongly consider going to the emergency room of an academic center.
He's been prescribed a zpack and a steroid inhaler so far. 

His PCP would only give him cough syrup. 🙄.He called a doc friend who works in same office and he immediately  prescribed those two items. 

I'll check with him on that if he still is bouncing down to 93 tomorrow. Thank you! 

Out of curiosity what are the ballpark costs for those two treatments? Not sure what programs may be running. 
 

EDIT: just pinged him about this and he sent a reading pic at 98 and a pic of an ADVAIR inhaler (asked what he was given). 

 
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I actually have an employee who just confirmed positive with the exposure traced to a wedding.  I don't know the details of the wedding though.
Wasn’t there a wedding in New England (Maine maybe) where a whole bunch of people got it and eventually lead to 13 deaths, most of whom didn’t even go to the wedding but got it from someone who did?

 
Wasn’t there a wedding in New England (Maine maybe) where a whole bunch of people got it and eventually lead to 13 deaths, most of whom didn’t even go to the wedding but got it from someone who did?
It is Maine. Yes, there are multiple, unrelated, deaths that can be linked back to this event. I recall something 200 unrelated illnesses can be traced back too. The operators claimed they were trying to obey the rules but misinterpreted the guidelines. Let me find the link....

Googling "Maine covid wedding" finds these two links and a pile more:

https://nypost.com/2020/09/16/virus-death-toll-linked-to-maine-wedding-grows-to-7/

https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/05/us/maine-wedding-outbreak-covid-cases-trnd/index.html

I hear updates on my radio news every so often. 

 
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He's been prescribed a zpack and a steroid inhaler so far. 

His PCP would only give him cough syrup. 🙄.He called a doc friend who works in same office and he immediately  prescribed those two items. 

I'll check with him on that if he still is bouncing down to 93 tomorrow. Thank you! 

Out of curiosity what are the ballpark costs for those two treatments? Not sure what programs may be running. 
 

EDIT: just pinged him about this and he sent a reading pic at 98 and a pic of an ADVAIR inhaler (asked what he was given). 
The Z pak (azithromycin, an antibiotic) is likely unnecessary. If he has documented covid, the prevalence of secondary bacterial infection (requiring antibiotics) is low, and the anti inflammatory properties of azithromycin haven’t panned out for covid either.

Treatment studies were done with systemic (pill, not inhaler like Advair) steroids, specifically dexamethasone. The benefit was only seen in those with severe disease and/or symptoms 7 days or longer. Believe it or not, oxygen saturation less than 94% was one of the criteria for severe disease (truthfully, that’s not a saturation most clinicians would usually think twice about).

I have no idea about the price of dexamethasone, but it’s an old drug and should be cheap. The data for convalescent plasma are less compelling, plus it would require a trip to the hospital. And I suspect it’s pricey.

All that being said, if he’s doing better, he can probably just monitor at home for now. If he has fevers, he should take around the clock Tylenol to suppress them, and keep exertion to a minimum. If it were me I’d consider self proning while sleeping as well.

 
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The Z pak (azithromycin, an antibiotic) is likely unnecessary. If he has documented covid, the prevalence of secondary bacterial infection (requiring antibiotics) is low, and the anti inflammatory properties of azithromycin haven’t panned out for covid either.

Treatment studies were done with systemic (pill, not inhaler like Advair) steroids, specifically dexamethasone. The benefit was only seen in those with severe disease and/or symptoms 7 days or longer. Believe it or not, oxygen saturation less than 94% was one of the criteria for severe disease (truthfully, that’s not a saturation most clinicians would usually think twice about).

I have no idea about the price of dexamethasone, but it’s an old drug and should be cheap. The data for convalescent plasma are less compelling, plus it would require a trip to the hospital. And I suspect it’s pricey.

All that being said, if he’s doing better, he can probably just monitor at home for now. If he has fevers, he should take around the clock Tylenol to suppress them, and keep exertion to a minimum. If it were me I’d consider self proning while sleeping as well.
Thanks for the feedback GB. I'm sharing the advice with the family. Very much appreciated as I know you've been all over this from go, 

 
Dad was good yesterday with O2 Sats @ 97  (about day 10-12 from infection).... symptoms had gone down. Thought we may have been out of the woods but today he's coughing a good bit more and O2sat dropping as low as 95. :unsure:  

Mom felt bad Sunday so started a Zpac. Felt better since. This morning she officially tested positive. Currently asymptomatic. She's highest risk. 
 

Brother (41 fit) was patient 0 we think. He's been struggling the most, sleeping inclined, chest pressure, coughing. Ordered him a pulse oximeter and his O2 Sats are running 93-95. Not horrible but not good. Told hulk if they drop any lower he needs to go to the hospital :(   
 

Thanks for asking GB 
That's awesome to hear everyone seems to be hanging in there so far. It is a scary ####### disease with just so much unknowns...  I've thought a lot about your folks since you said they were positive / likely positve. I don't personally know you but you have always been a good dude round here. Especially in the bourbon thead. ;)

Hang in there. We're pulling for you guys!  :thumbup:

 
Thanks for the feedback GB. I'm sharing the advice with the family. Very much appreciated as I know you've been all over this from go, 
Sending good thoughts. So weird that your brother, who is the youngest and healthiest, is experiencing the worst symptoms. Hope everyone recovers quickly 🤞🤞

 
Wasn’t there a wedding in New England (Maine maybe) where a whole bunch of people got it and eventually lead to 13 deaths, most of whom didn’t even go to the wedding but got it from someone who did?
Yes.  It was unclear to me what type of wedding/ceremony it was and what other precautions were in place.

 
I haven't posted in this thread in many weeks if not months but I don't know where else to post this and feel like I need to share this...

I just found out my 21 year old son has Covid-19 and not because he took a test and was asymptomatic or anything, he is S-I-C-K, full fever, full congestion or flu like symptoms and he has a fever that doesn't seem to break at the moment. He takes Tylenol and 4 hours later he is running hot again. 

He works in the front lines and has throughout the Covid Crisis and I do want to share that he went to a party this weekend of about 10-15 people around his age, it was "Game Night" and they all did a role playing game with characters and I feel strongly that's where he got sick but of course he swears it 's thru his work and that certainly is what he is telling them. 

He is now OUT for 2 Weeks, and I just wanted to share because I haven't personally known anyone that has this but I most certainly do now and I don't ask this lightly but I know many of you pray and will pray if I ask you to. I have no idea what the temperature is in this thread at the moment but I ask for a little leeway here, I'm worried about him. I'm confident he will pull thru but I also am now worried about what his life might be like in a couple weeks...hopefully he just bounces right back but that might not happen right away. 

I had planned on visiting him in St Pete, about 200 miles and still would like to drive over and be near him but at the same time, he needs to quarantine. 

Im also extremely concerned about his grandparents which is where he lives and has been inside for the past several nights...

I thought we were entering phase 3 here in Florida although i stopped watching a lot of news quite a while back but I had heard the mask mandate was lifted and possibly bars were re-opening here in Florida...boy that sounds dangerous if it's true. 

Peace to all of you, I hope you are being safe. And safe to me would be avoiding big crowds or perhaps not being inside with infrequent friends or family right now. 

As I went to post this, my wife asked a great question or made me think of something. Masks have been lifted from customers having to wear them in stores and such, that happened this past Sat and it's completely possible he did catch it inside his store. But at the same time I feel he should be telling everyone that was at the get together Sat Night if he hasn't already. 

 
More info as I am understanding things...

-My son was told they couldn't treat him when he went to the doctors, they said there was nothing they could do for him...that's kinda disturbing to me. I'm reading a few posts in here, couldn't they have given him a ZPac or something? Is there something OTC he could purchase to combat this as best he can? 

-He has told everyone he was in contact with what is happening and his g/f is also being tested for the CV-19 now.

He says he feels as bad today as he did yesterday which was worse than he felt on Tuesday...

 
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