As I've said multiple times, CFR isn't the most relevant number for Covid-19 - hospitalization rate, ICU occupancy and length of stay are. All of those are exceedingly high relative to other common, transmissible infections, including influenza. Coupled with its high infectivity/contagion and time/labor-intensive hospital care, this creates a perfect storm for rapidly overwhelming healthcare systems. And covid's long incubation period + potential for asymptomatic spread + superspreading makes it tricky to contain/predict. Plus don't forget the potential for long-term organ damage/debility among survivors, whose prevalence we still don't quite have a handle on.
Honestly, I don't care much about the CFR, but it looks like it's gonna end up somewhere between 2-3%. Note, this is Case Fatality Rate/ratio, which is the ratio of deaths among those with
symptomatic infection. This differs from the Infection Fatality Rate/ratio, which measures deaths/total infections,
including asymptomatic individuals. People mistakenly use the terms interchangeably, in addition to mortality rates based on deaths per 100K population. For Covid-19, IFR is probably 0.5-1%, perhaps as low as 0.2% in some estimates. For comparison purposes, seasonal flu has a CFR around 0.1% and IFR much less than 0.1%, while the 1918 pandemic strain was thought to have a CFR ~2.5%, roughly that of covid-19. And all the imprecision associated with covid numbers applies to influenza, and then some, as some estimates are based on the prevalence of influenza-like-illness (ILI), which is a diagnosis determined solely by symptoms, coupled with statistical models - not definitive testing of all cases. As an aside, there're a bunch of sh!tty rapid flu tests out there as well, with potential for false positives and negatives, just like SARS-CoV-2 testing.
Of course, all the political nonsense and intentional misinformation compounded by testing inconsistency/lack of availability makes all the numbers suspect. But count me in the group that believes the death toll is grossly understated, as evidenced by
excess mortality data. While I agree there are a ton of people who were never tested, asymptomatic and/or received inaccurate tests, too, the badness is very real. I've seen it first-hand, where I've watched covid patients crash right before my eyes, fill multiple floors of our hospital and overwhelm our ICU. I've taken care of patients for nearly 20 years, and never have seen anything like it - the worst flu season doesn't come close, and HIV didn't infect so many people, so quickly. And winter isn't looking promising for an improvement in the disease's trajectory.