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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (8 Viewers)

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gianmarco said:
Example of some Covid numbers for hospitalized patients

Seeing these same numbers across multiple hospital systems, but just for a point of reference of how well the vaccines are working.

As of August 27, 2021, Wellstar Health System is caring for 668 COVID-19 patients – that's an increase of 27 patients from yesterday's cases of 641.

Of the current cases, 613 are unvaccinated. A total of 153 people are in the ICU (148 unvaccinated) and a total of 116 people are on ventilators (113 unvaccinated).

Protect yourself, our community, and help slow the spread. To find a vaccination site near you, visit https://www.vaccines.gov/. Find updates and information on COVID-19 at Wellstar by visiting wellstar.org/COVID19.
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Similar to what we are seeing in LA as well. And for the hospitals that report it by age/comorbidity, I'd say of the vaccinated, it's 99% that are either 70yo or older or diabetic, or both. 

 
30 years old, 3 kids and a 4th on the way, organized anti-vax and mandate type protests and is going to likely lose his life to Covid.

Really hate news links taking people to things they might not even want to view so I am going to simpyly post the highlights of this, its on Google easily can find the story. 

Caleb Wallace, 30, has been unconscious, ventilated and heavily sedated in the ICU at Shannon Medical Center in San Angelo since August 8. My gawd almost 3 weeks in an ICU or unconscious state...

The father of three- with another child due next month- was a founder of 'The Freedom Defenders' a local group fighting against 'COVID-19 tyranny' He meant well I'm sure

When he began experiencing symptoms he refused testing or medical care instead concocting cocktail of Vitamin C, zinc, aspirin and ivermectin...some wacko actually launched a thread on this thing a little while back. 

According to his wife, Jessica's, recent Facebook post doctors; 'said they've run out of options for him and asked if I would consent to a do not resuscitate' 😪

The stay at home mother is expecting the couple's fourth child next month and has begun a GoFundMe page to raise money for household and medical bills  😪   😪

 
Ministry of Pain said:
30 years old, 3 kids and a 4th on the way, organized anti-vax and mandate type protests and is going to likely lose his life to Covid.

Really hate news links taking people to things they might not even want to view so I am going to simpyly post the highlights of this, its on Google easily can find the story. 

Caleb Wallace, 30, has been unconscious, ventilated and heavily sedated in the ICU at Shannon Medical Center in San Angelo since August 8. My gawd almost 3 weeks in an ICU or unconscious state...

The father of three- with another child due next month- was a founder of 'The Freedom Defenders' a local group fighting against 'COVID-19 tyranny' He meant well I'm sure

When he began experiencing symptoms he refused testing or medical care instead concocting cocktail of Vitamin C, zinc, aspirin and ivermectin...some wacko actually launched a thread on this thing a little while back. 

According to his wife, Jessica's, recent Facebook post doctors; 'said they've run out of options for him and asked if I would consent to a do not resuscitate' 😪

The stay at home mother is expecting the couple's fourth child next month and has begun a GoFundMe page to raise money for household and medical bills  😪   😪
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Sad part is if he wasnt so stubborn he couldve gotten monoclonal antibodies treatment early on and been fine. I hope the stubborness was worth it.

 
Veteran dies of treatable illness as COVID fills hospital beds, leaving doctors "playing musical chairs"

I'm a disabled/medically retired vet who was just able to get the 3rd shot for the brother in law I take care of. He has Downs, chronic kidney disease and a history of blood clots.  It's a great relief to know I've done what I can to minimize his risks.  The type of story linked is just beyond sad :(.  Can't imagine the pain/suffering his family is enduring after something so preventable happens.  I WOULD NOT take this calmly with my brother in law.  If  this happens increasingly there has to be a move toward doing something more drastic than what's currently being done.

When U.S. Army veteran Daniel Wilkinson started feeling sick last week, he went to the hospital in Bellville, Texas, outside Houston. His health problem wasn't related to COVID-19, but Wilkinson needed advanced care, and with the coronavirus filling up intensive care beds, he couldn't get it in time to save his life.

"He loved his country," his mother, Michelle Puget, told "CBS This Morning" lead national correspondent David Begnaud. "He served two deployments in Afghanistan, came home with a Purple Heart, and it was a gallstone that took him out."
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"I've never lost a patient from this diagnosis, ever," Kakli said. "We know what needs to be done and we know how to treat it, and we get them to where they need to go. I'm scared that the next patient that I see is someone that I can't get to where they need to get to go.
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AAABatteries said:
Sure, and I know you research your stuff.  I will definitely be in line to get the booster somewhat soon.
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I'm no doc but I try to find good info in terms I can understand ;lol: We're lucky to have some actual medical pros in here who do an amazing job of explaining stuff too. @Terminalxylemis a saint and should get free FBG subscription for life :lol:  

I Totally get folks wanting to wait a bit on boosters. Everyone's risk calculus is different 

 
jobarules said:
Doctors are just "checking boxes" by saying to get the vaccine. Of course everyone knows better including you. Name a single virus that we don't gain at least some form of natural immunity against. In the entire history of viruses are there any? It's common sense.
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1. Most doctors are extremely conscientious, and weigh the best available evidence when making decisions. They aren’t perfect, of course, and recommendations can/will change as more data accumulates. But it’s pretty arrogant to suggest your “common sense” exceeds that of the medical community.

2. There are a number of viruses for which natural immunity is ineffective, including rabies and HIV. Medical therapies make those diseases survivable.

3. There is NOT accumulating data that natural immunity is more effective than mRNA vaccination. There is a single non-peer reviewed article, whose findings contrast those of other studies. Importantly, even that article suggests vaccination benefits previously infected individuals.

4. Vaccination still appears far, far safer than getting COVID the old-fashioned way.  Many of our hospitals are bursting at the seams, and 80-90% of their patients are unvaccinated.

5. There’s no data TMK that shows receiving the vaccine following infection poses special risk of serious AEs, which are vanishingly uncommon in any event.

6. Anecdotally, vaccination may help long hauler symptoms - it’s a tough thing to study, given there is no consensus definition or clear way to diagnose long hauling,  but there are people trying to investigate this phenomenon systematically.

7. A subset of people who’ve been infected with SARS-CoV-2, around 10-15% IIRC, don’t develop antibodies. This probably occurs mostly in those with no/minimal symptoms. Upon re-exposure, there’re unlikely to generate an anamnestic (memory) immune response, so they’d behave exactly as if they’d never been infected in the first place.

Given my statements above, help me understand why anyone, previously infected or not, should delay vaccination? What objective criteria would make vaccination worthwhile to the holdouts?

 
AAABatteries said:
170k cases and 1,200+ deaths today.  Stating the obvious that we need things to calm down and some signs in certain areas point towards that but it we do have the same type of bell curve we could see some states with high numbers as we get in to colder weather.  Even with the vaccines and some measures we've averaged about 1k deaths a day for 2 weeks.  Don't think we will slow down until we get to 2k-3k deaths a day.  I've always been baffled by the folks not taking the vaccine but how someone wouldn't at least question whether it's the right decision at this point seems absolutely crazy to me.
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I’ve said this before, and I’ll probably say it again: any day covid kills more than 1000 people, it’s likely the number one cause of death in this country, more than any type of cancer, heart attack, stroke, etc.

 
The mask shaming will become obvious folly, and never reported.

The results show that a standard surgical and three-ply cloth masks, which see current widespread use, filter at apparent efficiencies of only 12.4% and 9.8%, respectively. Apparent efficiencies of 46.3% and 60.2% are found for KN95 and R95 masks, respectively, which are still notably lower than the verified 95% rated ideal efficiencies. Furthermore, the efficiencies of a loose-fitting KN95 and a KN95 mask equipped with a one-way valve were evaluated, showing that a one-way valve reduces the mask's apparent efficiency by more than half (down to 20.3%), while a loose-fitting KN95 provides a negligible apparent filtration efficiency (3.4%). The present results provide an important practical contrast to many other previous experimental and numerical investigations, which do not consider the effect of mask fit when locally evaluating mask efficiency or incorporating mask usage in a numerical model. 
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@Doug B @parasaurolophus 

I will never figure out which is more crazy in this life - people's ability to buy into BS, or their inability to accept they bought into BS.

 
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Doug B said:
What are "apparent efficiencies"?
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The efficacy when fit is accounted for.  In other words.. your surgical mask isnt doing anything (because they don't fit), your 95 masks are entirely likely doing nothing if they don't fit (see my stories about the common joke among OR staff about lying to pass fit tests).

Every piece of "data" you see on masks thus far does not take into account fit.... sound familiar?

Painful obviousness.

 
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Doug B said:
Ten hours??? Who gives a rip? Not hanging out anywhere for ten hours straight.

They also used a mannequin and a mechanical breathing machine. I don't think this is the way to figure out whether or not "masks work".
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What amount of time do you think people wear a given mask for on average?

 
And here we go - the OBVIOUS fact that masks are unreliable based on nothing more than an argument around one size not fitting all.

It is impossible to accept given the 18 months of relentless dogma.

 
Thinking of this thread... I flew 4 times this week.

Rough counting has about 70% of people in airports wearing the cloth/over ear surgical masks.  About 30% of those have them pinched around nose, about 90% have HUGE gaps on the cheeks.  A solid number not even bothering to wear over the nose.

Those wearing N95 masks?  Noticeable gaps under chin, over nose, whole face.  In fact the poorly fitting rigid 95 masks are more easily identifiable.  Those left over had snug fits over their nose with the metal clips, snug fit around face and under chin.

Truly the exception to the rule that masks are helping anything.

 
As for myself? A K95 mask that to my inspection fit fairly well, and the metal clasp over the nose helped..... until on my last flight the metal clasp fell off and would not stick back on, and suddenly my glasses fogged up on every breath.  Ie, at this point accomplishing nothing other than keeping up appearances.

 
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matuski said:
What amount of time do you think people wear a given mask for on average?
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Doesn't matter. Different people, different situations, different guidance.

If I'm pulling 16 hours at County General, working on COVID patients all day? Give me that Rolls Royce PPE that cuts into my face.

If I'm breezing through an empty-ish grocery store for 20 minutes? Meh, my ol' Saints do-rag** is fine.

** Exaggerated for effect. My cloth masks are a lot better than a do-rag.

 
Her FreeDumz

Unvaxxed, Unmasked teacher infects 12 of her 22 students, including 8 of 10 in the front row. 

I'm sure the parents of the kids are very proud of her for her life choices... b/c masks r dum and she's a free woman. 
 

 
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gianmarco said:
Despite your unnecessary comment to me earlier, I'll respond to this.

This view of yours is wrong.  It's not that people here "seem to know everything".  It's that many of us here choose to follow the current recommendations as they come out from those that are qualified to make those recommendations.  We don't decide to ignore that advice because of a google search or a news story that comes out that conflicts with those recommendations. 

The reason is those that are making those recommendations are privy to all of those same news stories and studies and a lot more that you aren't able to see and take all of that into account when making those recommendations.

The reason I (and others here) say to get the vaccine even if you got Covid is because that's what the current recommendation is.  If they find evidence (i.e. from the recent Israel study) to suggest otherwise and they change their minds, then so will I.

I know that I don't know everything.  I also realize, despite my knowledge on these subjects, where to look for the right information and who to listen to.
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this x 100,000,000,000,000,000

 
gianmarco said:
Despite your unnecessary comment to me earlier, I'll respond to this.

This view of yours is wrong.  It's not that people here "seem to know everything".  It's that many of us here choose to follow the current recommendations as they come out from those that are qualified to make those recommendations.  We don't decide to ignore that advice because of a google search or a news story that comes out that conflicts with those recommendations. 

The reason is those that are making those recommendations are privy to all of those same news stories and studies and a lot more that you aren't able to see and take all of that into account when making those recommendations.

The reason I (and others here) say to get the vaccine even if you got Covid is because that's what the current recommendation is.  If they find evidence (i.e. from the recent Israel study) to suggest otherwise and they change their minds, then so will I.

I know that I don't know everything.  I also realize, despite my knowledge on these subjects, where to look for the right information and who to listen to.
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Top 5 Mic Drops in FFA history 🔥 

 
Furthermore, although the present study does not characterize the effectiveness of masks during inhalation, the aforementioned loss of filtration efficiency due to perimeter leakage is also expected to be present during inhalation, although it is to a lesser extent due to the improved sealing effect produced by the negative pressure difference relation to the ambient. 

Isn't the inhaling the important part?

 
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gianmarco said:
2)  It's a retrospective observational study.  There can certainly be some significant bias in that kind of study. 
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There is always significant bias in that kind of study. The question is how well do the researchers adjust/account for it. 

The ship sailed long ago, but I don't think preprints should be a thing in medicine. Giving the general public access to non-peer-reviewed studies does more harm than good. In physics, sure. But not in medicine. 

 
Terminalxylem said:
1. Most doctors are extremely conscientious, and weigh the best available evidence when making decisions. They aren’t perfect, of course, and recommendations can/will change as more data accumulates. But it’s pretty arrogant to suggest your “common sense” exceeds that of the medical community.

2. There are a number of viruses for which natural immunity is ineffective, including rabies and HIV. Medical therapies make those diseases survivable.

3. There is NOT accumulating data that natural immunity is more effective than mRNA vaccination. There is a single non-peer reviewed article, whose findings contrast those of other studies. Importantly, even that article suggests vaccination benefits previously infected individuals.

4. Vaccination still appears far, far safer than getting COVID the old-fashioned way.  Many of our hospitals are bursting at the seams, and 80-90% of their patients are unvaccinated.

5. There’s no data TMK that shows receiving the vaccine following infection poses special risk of serious AEs, which are vanishingly uncommon in any event.

6. Anecdotally, vaccination may help long hauler symptoms - it’s a tough thing to study, given there is no consensus definition or clear way to diagnose long hauling,  but there are people trying to investigate this phenomenon systematically.

7. A subset of people who’ve been infected with SARS-CoV-2, around 10-15% IIRC, don’t develop antibodies. This probably occurs mostly in those with no/minimal symptoms. Upon re-exposure, there’re unlikely to generate an anamnestic (memory) immune response, so they’d behave exactly as if they’d never been infected in the first place.

Given my statements above, help me understand why anyone, previously infected or not, should delay vaccination? What objective criteria would make vaccination worthwhile to the holdouts?
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like an alligator leaping out of the water to tear apart some little animal. 

 
matuski said:
The mask shaming will become obvious folly, and never reported.

@Doug B @parasaurolophus 

I will never figure out which is more crazy in this life - people's ability to buy into BS, or their inability to accept they bought into BS.
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So from this study I see...

1. cloth masks are trash

2. other masks are mostly trash.

3. KN95 and N95 are great at filtering on the way in. All masks are better at filtering on the way in (gaps are magnified when exhaling and gaps are minimized when inhaling for obvious reasons). 

4. A valved KN95(which I have never even ever seen only have seen valved N95s and the RZ mask) still filters more on the way out than a cloth mask.

 
Pip's Invitation said:
There is always significant bias in that kind of study. The question is how well do the researchers adjust/account for it. 

The ship sailed long ago, but I don't think preprints should be a thing in medicine. Giving the general public access to non-peer-reviewed studies does more harm than good. In physics, sure. But not in medicine. 
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For those wondering about quality of studies and evidence

Not all studies are created equal.  They get assigned a level of evidence. The strength of that level helps determine what use it is in determining practice guidelines, therapies, etc.

This is why papers need to be peer reviewed. 

I completely agree with your second paragraph. Evidence of that is here with people quoting that retrospective observational study as if it's definitive evidence of what it's claiming. It's not. Not only may it not be significant, it could actually be completely false.

 
belljr said:
Furthermore, although the present study does not characterize the effectiveness of masks during inhalation, the aforementioned loss of filtration efficiency due to perimeter leakage is also expected to be present during inhalation, although it is to a lesser extent due to the improved sealing effect produced by the negative pressure difference relation to the ambient. 

Isn't the inhaling the important part?
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They ran a test with a 3mm gap all around the mask. They had a desired conclusion for the study, obviously. No mask fits that poorly. I can put an adult kn95 on my 4 year old and it fits better than that. 

 
matuski said:
Thinking of this thread... I flew 4 times this week.

Rough counting has about 70% of people in airports wearing the cloth/over ear surgical masks.  About 30% of those have them pinched around nose, about 90% have HUGE gaps on the cheeks.  A solid number not even bothering to wear over the nose.

Those wearing N95 masks?  Noticeable gaps under chin, over nose, whole face.  In fact the poorly fitting rigid 95 masks are more easily identifiable.  Those left over had snug fits over their nose with the metal clips, snug fit around face and under chin.

Truly the exception to the rule that masks are helping anything.
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I flew 4 times this week also.  Very similar observation as you.  

 
All the debate in this thread on vaccine immunity vs. "natural immunity" just came in handy for me. An old friend I know from the NYC music scene sent me a draft of a screed he is writing to an outdoor concert venue asking them to amend their vaccine-required policy to cover people who had COVID but aren't vaccinated. 

He asked:

Say, could you put on your medical-editor's cap and let me know how off the wall my appeal here is to your experienced eye?
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And attached something that was indeed off the wall. So now I get to learn he's an anti-vaxxer -- a leftist one. 

He begins his argument with:

Medical research has proven - despite what captured federal or state authorities will concede - that the highest bar of immunity is to have natural antibodies born of having survived symptomatic infection of SARS-COV-2.  
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And it just gets loonier from there. I have no idea why he refuses to put a vaccine in his body when he had no problem putting cocaine in it. 

So here's how I responded:

Hey [redacted],

I don't cover infectious diseases so I'm not going to get into this point-by-point. What I will say is that you catch more flies with honey than with vinegar, and a letter berating them for their "fascististic policies" is likely to be deleted/thrown in the trash. 

This is an unusual time where we are dealing with a phenomenon that is extremely threatening but about which we don't know enough. And what we do know changes constantly as we learn more. This is how the scientific process works. Entities that put on public events, however, need to be somewhat black-and-white in their policies (for many legal, liability and logistics reasons), and it's unlikely that these policies are going to be completely congruent all the time with a situation that is constantly in flux. This does not mean they are fascists, it just means their lawyers/consultants told them they had to make some hard-and-fast rules, and this is what they landed on based on current guidance from public health authorities. 

So, if you want them to take your points seriously, you need to meet them where they are. Acknowledge that you understand they have to make rules about this, and then explain -- in a non-argumentative way -- why you think the rules should be changed. 

As to the merits of natural immunity vs. vaccine immunity, I am only aware of one paper that found natural immunity was better, and that paper has not yet been peer-reviewed. But as I said, I don't cover infectious diseases, so there may be things out there I'm not aware of. However, there are quite a few papers that were peer-reviewed that found vaccine immunity was better. Given that, the public health messaging at this time is going to be that vaccine immunity is better. But if the published, peer-reviewed evidence ends up amassing the other way, the public health messaging will change and so will the policies at places that host events that require hard-and-fast rules. I doubt that will happen by Sept. 4 [the date of the first show he plans to attend at this venue], but stranger things have happened. 

I'm glad to hear you recovered from COVID and I hope you're doing well.
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I tried to meet him where he's at. We'll see how it goes.  :shrug:

 
Terminalxylem said:
1. Most doctors are extremely conscientious, and weigh the best available evidence when making decisions. They aren’t perfect, of course, and recommendations can/will change as more data accumulates. But it’s pretty arrogant to suggest your “common sense” exceeds that of the medical community.

2. There are a number of viruses for which natural immunity is ineffective, including rabies and HIV. Medical therapies make those diseases survivable.

3. There is NOT accumulating data that natural immunity is more effective than mRNA vaccination. There is a single non-peer reviewed article, whose findings contrast those of other studies. Importantly, even that article suggests vaccination benefits previously infected individuals.

4. Vaccination still appears far, far safer than getting COVID the old-fashioned way.  Many of our hospitals are bursting at the seams, and 80-90% of their patients are unvaccinated.

5. There’s no data TMK that shows receiving the vaccine following infection poses special risk of serious AEs, which are vanishingly uncommon in any event.

6. Anecdotally, vaccination may help long hauler symptoms - it’s a tough thing to study, given there is no consensus definition or clear way to diagnose long hauling,  but there are people trying to investigate this phenomenon systematically.

7. A subset of people who’ve been infected with SARS-CoV-2, around 10-15% IIRC, don’t develop antibodies. This probably occurs mostly in those with no/minimal symptoms. Upon re-exposure, there’re unlikely to generate an anamnestic (memory) immune response, so they’d behave exactly as if they’d never been infected in the first place.

Given my statements above, help me understand why anyone, previously infected or not, should delay vaccination? What objective criteria would make vaccination worthwhile to the holdouts?
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#3

You said everything yourself.  You said no proof natural was better.  So no proof getting vax is better.  

So added risk doing both IMO.

You make a ton of great points.

 
Terminalxylem said:
Did you read the part about vaccines benefitting previously infected individuals?
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Of course but as my contention has always been is getting more protective outweigh the side effects of the vax when I think I am already dealing with the long term effects of having covid.

Tough spot imo.

 
matuski said:
Thinking of this thread... I flew 4 times this week.

Rough counting has about 70% of people in airports wearing the cloth/over ear surgical masks.  About 30% of those have them pinched around nose, about 90% have HUGE gaps on the cheeks.  A solid number not even bothering to wear over the nose.

Those wearing N95 masks?  Noticeable gaps under chin, over nose, whole face.  In fact the poorly fitting rigid 95 masks are more easily identifiable.  Those left over had snug fits over their nose with the metal clips, snug fit around face and under chin.

Truly the exception to the rule that masks are helping anything.
Click to expand...
I agree that many people wear masks incorrectly, but just because it looks like there’s a gap on an N95 doesn’t always mean there is one. Some of the more rigid ones may overhang the chin or even cheeks in some cases, but the person’s face still creates a seal inside the respirator. 

 
IC FBGCav said:
Of course but as my contention has always been is getting more protective outweigh the side effects of the vax when I think I am already dealing with the long term effects of having covid.

Tough spot imo.
Click to expand...
There are some studies that suggest that long term effects from a covid  infection are diminished after receiving an mRNA vax. Something to consider as well.  Hope you recover fully very soon. 

 
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