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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (23 Viewers)
- Thread starter Big League Chew
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The Z Machine
Footballguy
I was really talking about the next 5-10 years. Maybe exposures and boosters will prime it immune systems such that SARS-CoV-2 isn't the straw that breaks the camel's back like it is for so many now.
![[icon]](/data/avatars/m/5/5167.jpg?1660313464){kind=avatar}
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Insoxicated
Large Scale Myocarditis study in Israel:
Incidence: 2 in 100,000
https://www.nejm.org/doi/10.1056/NEJMoa2110737
Incidence: 2 in 100,000
https://www.nejm.org/doi/10.1056/NEJMoa2110737
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Joe Mammy
Footballguy
2. flying could be problematic, a cancelled flight could screw the poochJudge Smails said:
3. I have stayed at a cheap older motel right on Dale Mabry where we could walk to the game and tailgate in the parking lot, I think it was a Country Inn & Suites.
4. Go double masked and you'll be golden, don't forget the $20's.
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Leeroy Jenkins
Footballguy
Example of why this will never end.
Friend/co-worker whose whole family got sick after going on vacation. Vaxxed but didn't get boosted because didn't want to be sick for one day. So, yesterday was day 5. They all still have symptoms, but the plan was to test and go to school if negative. All still positive. My friend was about to go to Florida to the meeting I opted out of, even though everyone in his house was still showing positive and symptomatic. He is still symptomatic too, and was just planning to test last night and get on a plane today and then be in a room with 30 people.
Correct me if I am wrong, but the Day 5 thing is IF you are no longer symptomatic THEN you can leave ISOLATION (not quarantine), NOT that you can re-enter society. It is that you can leave your bedroom, but you should still wear a mask, and then day 10 if no symptoms, get back out there.
Friend/co-worker whose whole family got sick after going on vacation. Vaxxed but didn't get boosted because didn't want to be sick for one day. So, yesterday was day 5. They all still have symptoms, but the plan was to test and go to school if negative. All still positive. My friend was about to go to Florida to the meeting I opted out of, even though everyone in his house was still showing positive and symptomatic. He is still symptomatic too, and was just planning to test last night and get on a plane today and then be in a room with 30 people.
Correct me if I am wrong, but the Day 5 thing is IF you are no longer symptomatic THEN you can leave ISOLATION (not quarantine), NOT that you can re-enter society. It is that you can leave your bedroom, but you should still wear a mask, and then day 10 if no symptoms, get back out there.
belljr
Footballguy
Nope -
nding isolation if you had symptoms
End isolation after 5 full days if you are fever-free for 24 hours (without the use of fever-reducing medication) and your symptoms are improving.
Ending isolation if you did NOT have symptoms
End isolation after at least 5 full days after your positive test.
If you were severely ill with COVID-19
You should isolate for at least 10 days. Consult your doctor before ending isolation.
Take precautions until day 10
Wear a mask
Wear a well-fitted mask for 10 full days any time you are around others inside your home or in public. Do not go to places where you are unable to wear a mask.
Avoid travel
Avoid being around people who are at high risk
Well yeah the travel part is right
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/your-health/quarantine-isolation.html
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Leeroy Jenkins
Footballguy
Another update for MN:
Hospital usage overall (ICU and non-ICU) is still very high. The number of non-ICU covid hospitalizations remains around 1350. Prior to Omicron, non-ICU covid cases peaked around 1350 in early December before falling to about 1000, and then it went straight back up when Omicron hit.
However, good news on the ICU front as ICU covid cases continue to slowly decline. Today we're at 239 covid cases in ICU (down from 374 in mid-December).
Further, sewage samples would indicate that the number of cases in MN has peaked. Link
The Z Machine
Footballguy
Pretty amazing that wastewater analysis can predict case surges that far in advance. I have to imagine that this will become a big part of predicting when/where a covid outbreak will occur.
Yeah, that's pretty cool. Makes me wonder what other interesting information we can glean from our sewer systems and what we could do with that info.
FairWarning
Footballguy
I think we are ready for this once this Omicron wave is over. Maybe 2-3 weeks (at least here).
Doug B
Footballguy
Pre-Omicron numbers still kinda sucked -- hope we can get to June 2021 numbers. We really need Omicron to "stick" and not get outcompeted by yet another variant.
belljr
Footballguy
Sorry - this is what I meant ... trans rate is getting there - still a way to go for other crap
Leeroy Jenkins
Footballguy
I think by end of February we are around October sucky numbers. We won't approach June 2021 -- which was SO CLOSE to really declaring this over at 11,000 cases/day -- until we are out of the winter in the Northeast and likely getting a 4th shot around the same time.
beer 30
Footballguy
Someone should tell Rogan so he can get back to regular podcasts
Lets be honest, in a lot of areas of the country, masks are already a thing of the past.
Doug B
Footballguy
Thinking about this some more ...
On January 13, 2022, the U.S.'s 7-day average was just over 810,000 cases per Worldometers.
On November 2, 2021, the the U.S.'s 7-day average was just over 71,000 cases, also per Worldometers.
Dropping back down to early November 2021 case numbers would take a 92% drop. The nation would consider that a pretty big win, I'm sure.
June 2021 7-day case numbers + even lower than June 2021 hospitalization rates is probably where endemic COVID is going to settle. Could maybe be higher cases paired with starkly less hospitalization, as well.
themeanmachine
Footballguy
Plus factoring in that Delta was much more severe than Omicron (I believe this has been settled), the same case counts end of Feb as Nov 2 would be seen as a massive win and signal a return to normal.
belljr
Footballguy
for reference here Nov 2 14.2 of 100K.... Jan 10 356.9 (31,098.4 cases) today 1/19 ( 197.1) thats close to 45% drop?
I could see it happening ... hopefully
worrierking
Footballguy
This is excellent. Does anyone have updated information on Myocarditis cases caused by COVID-19 infection? I remember earlier info said it appeared to be five times more likely from infection than from vaccination, but I think that is outdated. If it remains similar, this is one of the best arguments in favor of vaccination, but I want to make sure I'm using the latest data.
FairWarning
Footballguy
Is getting my 87-YO mother the booster next week a good idea? She lives in a 10-person adult foster home. I think her 1st shot was JJ.
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uwillbsoon
Footballguy
Can't believe my family made it this far without catching COVID, but the unvaxed four year old tested positive yesterday and is quite sick.
Bets on who in the family will get it next?
- 9 year old vaxed with two Pfizer, second one in late Dec.
- 45 year old with one dose of J&J and a Moderna booster in mid-Nov
-46 year old with three Pfizer that included a booster in Nov.
Bets on who in the family will get it next?
- 9 year old vaxed with two Pfizer, second one in late Dec.
- 45 year old with one dose of J&J and a Moderna booster in mid-Nov
-46 year old with three Pfizer that included a booster in Nov.
Tecumseh
Footballguy
Tecumseh
Footballguy
I don't want to bet or manifest anything negative, but my guess would be your 9yr old.
Dragons
Delusions of Grandeur
I would say the person the 4 year old spends the most time around. Then the one who received the weakest overall vaccine regiment (including weakest first does): 1 J&J + 1 Moderna.
BigJim®
Footballguy
Nathan R. Jessep
Footballguy
Meanwhile my region set a new record today for the Omicron wave, and we are approaching our all time high for hospitalizations. Really hoping for a slowdown.
Also worth noting in the Omicron wave overseas, it took longer for the wave to subside than it did to increase. I think YLE touched on this in one of her recent posts. Still bears watching. As we know, things can flip quickly.
Folk singer catches Covid deliberately to avoid vaccine, dies shortly after
https://nypost.com/2022/01/19/folk-singer-hana-horka-dies-of-covid-after-exposing-herself-to-avoid-vaccine/
https://nypost.com/2022/01/19/folk-singer-hana-horka-dies-of-covid-after-exposing-herself-to-avoid-vaccine/
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Nathan R. Jessep
Footballguy
YLE: Antigen Tests: Real World Data
I was actually a little relieved at her analysis. Just all the anecdotal stuff I've heard in the last weeks (here and IRL) didn't give me the utmost confidence in test accuracy. Still doesn't, but this does help some.
Tl;dr
Bottom line: Use antigen tests. Use antigen tests. Use antigen tests. Do so wisely.
Be aware of false negatives in the early stages of infection, and know that it can take several days after symptoms for the virus to take hold in your nose. Once you reach the tipping point, rapid tests are a reliable way to detect and monitor your infection.
Trust your positive test during the Omicron wave.
If at all possible, do not leave isolation without testing (I don’t care what the CDC says). If you can’t access tests, assume you are contagious for 10 days, and act accordingly.
I was actually a little relieved at her analysis. Just all the anecdotal stuff I've heard in the last weeks (here and IRL) didn't give me the utmost confidence in test accuracy. Still doesn't, but this does help some.
Tl;dr
Bottom line: Use antigen tests. Use antigen tests. Use antigen tests. Do so wisely.
Be aware of false negatives in the early stages of infection, and know that it can take several days after symptoms for the virus to take hold in your nose. Once you reach the tipping point, rapid tests are a reliable way to detect and monitor your infection.
Trust your positive test during the Omicron wave.
If at all possible, do not leave isolation without testing (I don’t care what the CDC says). If you can’t access tests, assume you are contagious for 10 days, and act accordingly.
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
I can't totally tell whether you're being facetious, but assuming you're not, please do it as soon as possible.
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
I'm not mad, I don't feel any Schadenfreude. It's just incredibly sad. What an unnecessary loss of life.
Any chance we can replace the CDC with YLE? She does such a better job of dissecting studies and giving practical advice.
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
I can't wrap my head around what motivates a person to do this when vaccines are readily available. (It would be a very bad idea in a world without vaccines too, but I would at least get what they're trying to accomplish.)
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
FairWarning
Footballguy
It’s glaringly obvious that health literacy is lacking in this country. It’s made worse by the constant politicization and terrible messaging by the CDC often being influenced by outside sources. It’s not that surprising that people get hooked into sources that sound good and then seek out information that confirms that opinion.
I bet if you sit people down and present them with the options, the benefits and risks rather than just yell at them to get vaccinated, most will end up getting vaccinated.
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
Absolutely. Old people are among the most vulnerable to covid, in part because their immunity isn’t as reliable as younger folks. They also tend to have other medical problems, which increase risk of severe disease.
Omicron responds less well to the vaccine than prior variants, but they still work. Boosting helps top off the immunologic tank, restoring much of their protection against severe disease and death.
Covid is killing 1000+ people a day, and hospitalizing thousands more. Those numbers are worse than any other diagnosis. Many of those people are unvaccinated, but some are vaccinated with high risk. Boosting mitigates that risk.
The vaccines are safe and effective. TBH, I can’t think of any reason an elderly person residing in a communal living setting wouldn’t benefit from a booster.
ETA If she only received a single J&J shot, she will benefit even more by getting one of the mRNA vaccines.
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This is where I really hate everyone calling Omicron ‘mild’. Yes it will be mild for many especially those who are vaccinated and/or booster but not for unvaccinated, undervaccinated or the high risk. She falls under high risk even without knowing her health history and an unboosted J&J leaves her with significant risk. I would definitely get her a booster of Pfizer or Moderna and significant reduce her risk.
The Z Machine
Footballguy
The Z Machine
Footballguy
gianmarco
Footballguy
It's truly amazing to me that this is even a question this stage in the game.
The recommendations and numbers re: vaccines are overwhelming.
FairWarning
Footballguy
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
Its actually encouraging there’s a subset of people who aren’t dug in based on nonsense like political ideology, who we may still be able to educate to do the right thing.
ZADO
Footballguy
Regulators in Europe say getting too many COVID-19 booster shots may actually weaken your immune system.
Scientists in Israel also report that a fourth vaccine dose doesn’t appear to produce enough antibodies to protect against an Omicron variant infection.
Experts explain that our bodies need time to process the stimulation from a vaccine or infection.
They recommend that people still practice safety protocols such as mask-wearing and physical distancing even if they are fully vaccinated.
https://www.healthline.com/health-news/why-a-4th-covid-19-shot-likely-wont-provide-more-protection
Scientists in Israel also report that a fourth vaccine dose doesn’t appear to produce enough antibodies to protect against an Omicron variant infection.
Experts explain that our bodies need time to process the stimulation from a vaccine or infection.
They recommend that people still practice safety protocols such as mask-wearing and physical distancing even if they are fully vaccinated.
https://www.healthline.com/health-news/why-a-4th-covid-19-shot-likely-wont-provide-more-protection
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Insoxicated
Have decided I'm NOT getting a 4th shot before leaving, and instead will be waiting until I return in late March (will be 8-9 month post 100mcg moderna boost).
Logic:
I was lucky enough to get the full-dose moderna boost in August so I would seem to have stronger/longer protection than the current 6mo guidance on the 50mcg shot.
With 4th shots not showing dramatic lift vs Omicron infection, (and boosters providing great protection vs advanced disease) it makes more sense to wait on the Omicron booster tailored toward more current variants.
Being boosted I still should have strong protection vs serious illness... particularly if I was to catch the Omicron variant (which is not yet fully established in Nicaragua or Costa Rica that I've seen, but undoubtedly will be in a month).
The GF was just boosted (50mcg) at Christmas so she should be in good shape. She's not got any comorbidities either, (vs my technically obese and hypertension)).
Risk is, if I DO get quite sick, the caliber of care in Nicaragua is inferior to here. Costa Rica a bit less so. I did opt for max coverage for travel insurance (500k with medical evacuation if needed).
Will travel with therm, pulse ox, acetaminophen, hydration powders, etc... plus 4 rapid antigen tests.
Logic:
I was lucky enough to get the full-dose moderna boost in August so I would seem to have stronger/longer protection than the current 6mo guidance on the 50mcg shot.
With 4th shots not showing dramatic lift vs Omicron infection, (and boosters providing great protection vs advanced disease) it makes more sense to wait on the Omicron booster tailored toward more current variants.
Being boosted I still should have strong protection vs serious illness... particularly if I was to catch the Omicron variant (which is not yet fully established in Nicaragua or Costa Rica that I've seen, but undoubtedly will be in a month).
The GF was just boosted (50mcg) at Christmas so she should be in good shape. She's not got any comorbidities either, (vs my technically obese and hypertension)).
Risk is, if I DO get quite sick, the caliber of care in Nicaragua is inferior to here. Costa Rica a bit less so. I did opt for max coverage for travel insurance (500k with medical evacuation if needed).
Will travel with therm, pulse ox, acetaminophen, hydration powders, etc... plus 4 rapid antigen tests.
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Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
I’m glad that you came in here and asked the question. Really hope that your mom gets another shot. Be well.
James Daulton
Footballguy
Hospitals in Maryland are losing tens of millions of dollars and facing an unprecedented decline in moral as we have to compete nationwide for the clinical workforce. The workforce that's been stretched thin for coming up on two years and faces increasing hostility from a large segment of our population who even when sick remain hostile and combative in the hospital demanding quack treatments they've read about on social media.
Our healthcare system will take years to recover and re-supply needed clinical workers when covid is finally behind us or actually "just the flu."
I hope we as a nation learn a lesson from this experience and remember social media that does nothing but reinforce your own, often political ideas, is a terrible way to make health decisions. Many many people have died and will die that did not have to.
Our healthcare system will take years to recover and re-supply needed clinical workers when covid is finally behind us or actually "just the flu."
I hope we as a nation learn a lesson from this experience and remember social media that does nothing but reinforce your own, often political ideas, is a terrible way to make health decisions. Many many people have died and will die that did not have to.
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