*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (14 Viewers)

[Nathan R. Jessep]

TL;DR: just read the whole thing

COVID-19 vaccines and sudden deaths: Separating fact from fiction

Vaccine rumors continue to swirl, and distrust in vaccines remains.

yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com

 

[jobarules]

Compelling argument that the claim that Covid is creating heart damage beyond that of other historical viruses was and is FAKE NEWS...

Setting the record straight: There is no 'Covid heart'

In a world where success is measured by clicks, the idea that even mild cases of Covid-19 could pose a new and unprecedented threat to the heart took off, even though it was largely unsubstantiated.

www.statnews.com

Check the date on that opinion piece. There is much newer data available re: this subject. Also, I'll keep my personal opinion to myself, but I'd advise to look further into the author of that piece, Vinay. He's... interesting.

'American Idol' Alum C.J. Harris Dead at 31

C.J. Harris came in sixth place on season 13 of American Idol in 2014

people.com

Why is that link in a Covid thread?

Because haven't you heard? Everyone who dies now died because of the vaccine.

I for one find this line of thinking foolish. We dont even know if these people like Lisa Marie and this American Idol guy were vaccinated.

 

[the moops]

I for one find this line of thinking foolish. We dont even know if these people like Lisa Marie and this American Idol guy were vaccinated.

It's also a sad truth that young healthy people die sometimes. Always have, always will

 

[sho nuff]

Compelling argument that the claim that Covid is creating heart damage beyond that of other historical viruses was and is FAKE NEWS...

Setting the record straight: There is no 'Covid heart'

In a world where success is measured by clicks, the idea that even mild cases of Covid-19 could pose a new and unprecedented threat to the heart took off, even though it was largely unsubstantiated.

www.statnews.com

Check the date on that opinion piece. There is much newer data available re: this subject. Also, I'll keep my personal opinion to myself, but I'd advise to look further into the author of that piece, Vinay. He's... interesting.

'American Idol' Alum C.J. Harris Dead at 31

C.J. Harris came in sixth place on season 13 of American Idol in 2014

people.com

Why is that link in a Covid thread?

Because haven't you heard? Everyone who dies now died because of the vaccine.

I for one find this line of thinking foolish. We dont even know if these people like Lisa Marie and this American Idol guy were vaccinated.

Which is why posting ot here seems…well, the wrong place. However. Fitz doesn’t seem to want to answer why he posted it here.

 

[belljr]

I know 2 people that died of heart attacks in their late 30s early 40s.......

In the 1990s....

 

[Keerock]

I know 2 people that died of heart attacks in late 30s early 40s.......

In the 1990s....

Were they vaccinated?

 

[LawFitz]

TL;DR: just read the whole thing

COVID-19 vaccines and sudden deaths: Separating fact from fiction

Vaccine rumors continue to swirl, and distrust in vaccines remains.

yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com

Three paragraphs in, I know where this substack is going because this is where it's coming from...

In fact, every week “sudden deaths” that aren’t remotely related to vaccines go viral.

To be very clear: We have more evidence than for any other vaccine or disease in the history of humans that the benefits of COVID-19 vaccines greatly outweigh the risks.

 

[sho nuff]

TL;DR: just read the whole thing

COVID-19 vaccines and sudden deaths: Separating fact from fiction

Vaccine rumors continue to swirl, and distrust in vaccines remains.

yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com

Three paragraphs in, I know where this substack is going because this is where it's coming from...

In fact, every week “sudden deaths” that aren’t remotely related to vaccines go viral.

To be very clear: We have more evidence than for any other vaccine or disease in the history of humans that the benefits of COVID-19 vaccines greatly outweigh the risks.

Yle has been really good on the topic…so I guess you can refute the statements made?

 

[gianmarco]

Myocarditis prognosis after vaccination compared to viral myocarditis

Cliff's

Conclusions
This study found a significantly lower rate of mortality among individuals with myocarditis after mRNA vaccination compared with those with viral infection–related myocarditis.

 

[Doug B]

I used to fish off the bullring in Tijuana. There would be these huge schools of barracuda. You could throw a hook with no bait on it and they would hit it just because it was shiny.

(username checks out)

 

[The Commish]

Myocarditis prognosis after vaccination compared to viral myocarditis

Cliff's

Conclusions
This study found a significantly lower rate of mortality among individuals with myocarditis after mRNA vaccination compared with those with viral infection–related myocarditis.

Same as it's ever been.

 

[LawFitz]

Myocarditis prognosis after vaccination compared to viral myocarditis

Cliff's

Conclusions
This study found a significantly lower rate of mortality among individuals with myocarditis after mRNA vaccination compared with those with viral infection–related myocarditis.

Dud

patients aged ≥12 years hospitalized with myocarditis within 28 days after BNT162b2 vaccination were compared against viral infection–related myocarditis recorded before the pandemic (2000-2019)

 

[Nathan R. Jessep]

Won't help us in the right now, but what, IMO, could be very promising lab findings that could lead to nasal spray prophylactic type medicine to halt not just Covid but other respiratory infections. Will need to do a deeper read on the others to see if this differs from the other nasal spray vaccines, but this one was just published last week

Could 'morning after' nasal spray block COVID?

Pinpointing the routes that the COVID-19 virus takes in and out of the nasal cavity could make possible a "morning after" spray to prevent infection.

www.futurity.org

 

[LawFitz]

The FAA has very quietly tacitly admitted that the EKGs of pilots are no longer normal. We should be concerned. Very concerned.

After the vaccine rolled out, the FAA secretly widened the EKG parameter range for pilots so they wouldn't be grounded. It looks like the vax gave at least 50M Americans heart damage.

stevekirsch.substack.com

 

[LawFitz]

Compelling argument that the claim that Covid is creating heart damage beyond that of other historical viruses was and is FAKE NEWS...

Setting the record straight: There is no 'Covid heart'

In a world where success is measured by clicks, the idea that even mild cases of Covid-19 could pose a new and unprecedented threat to the heart took off, even though it was largely unsubstantiated.

www.statnews.com

Check the date on that opinion piece. There is much newer data available re: this subject. Also, I'll keep my personal opinion to myself, but I'd advise to look further into the author of that piece, Vinay. He's... interesting.

https://twitter.com/DrEliDavid/status/1589992021561073669

Dr. Eli David

@DrEliDavid


So Covid vaccines may cause myocarditis, but Covid itself causes myocarditis too, right? WRONG!

A large-scale Israeli study of 196,992 unvaccinated adults after Covid infection showed that “Covid infection was not associated with either myocarditis or pericarditis.”

 

[sho nuff]

Compelling argument that the claim that Covid is creating heart damage beyond that of other historical viruses was and is FAKE NEWS...

Setting the record straight: There is no 'Covid heart'

In a world where success is measured by clicks, the idea that even mild cases of Covid-19 could pose a new and unprecedented threat to the heart took off, even though it was largely unsubstantiated.

www.statnews.com

Check the date on that opinion piece. There is much newer data available re: this subject. Also, I'll keep my personal opinion to myself, but I'd advise to look further into the author of that piece, Vinay. He's... interesting.

https://twitter.com/DrEliDavid/status/1589992021561073669

Dr. Eli David

@DrEliDavid


So Covid vaccines may cause myocarditis, but Covid itself causes myocarditis too, right? WRONG!

A large-scale Israeli study of 196,992 unvaccinated adults after Covid infection showed that “Covid infection was not associated with either myocarditis or pericarditis.”

Just what is Dr. David a Dr of? Since he is the founder of a cyber security company...does he have some expertise in diseases? Or is there is a reason he is only partially quoting studies in an old tweet you found?
Can you please answer why you posted the death of that American Idol contestant in the COVID thread?

BTW...this addresses the outlier study "Dr." David posted...and his tweet.

Multiple studies showed that COVID-19 increases the risk of heart inflammation more than vaccines do; study in Israel misleadingly used to claim otherwise

Myocarditis and pericarditis are conditions involving inflammation of the heart. Both conditions are commonly caused by viral infections, such as COVID-19 and the flu. The COVID-19 mRNA vaccines have also been associated with a higher risk of myocarditis, particularly in young men. However, the...

healthfeedback.org

And this thread for Dr. Laxton's full takedown of "Dr." David

https://twitter.com/dr_jon_l/status/1590039765403172864?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1590039765403172864%7Ctwgr%5Ebd31df231267782e8fb42ff7eee4848b65d7e157%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fhealthfeedback.org%2Fclaimreview%2Fcovid-19-increases-risk-heart-inflammation-more-than-vaccines-study-israel-misleadingly-used%2F

 

[fatness]

By now, these 2 disappearances probably can be called excess deaths due to COVID vaccinations.

 

[LawFitz]

Dr. Leana Wen, former lock-down and vax-mandate bulldog and CNN medical guru has been slowly but surely changing her tune over the last year. Here's her latest...

https://twitter.com/MichaelPSenger/status/1615412973014749184?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1615412973014749184%7Ctwgr%5Ef05dddbbf5c6c1d1d0dbcba4a8fdd789212f4645%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thegatewaypundit.com%2F2023%2F01%2Flie-cnn-political-hack-finally-admits-us-vastly-overcounting-covid-deaths-hospitalizations%2F

BREAKING: Super-sleuth Leana Wen tells CNN we’ve been vastly overcounting COVID deaths, outlining the crucial distinction between deaths “with COVID” and deaths “from COVID.”

 

[LawFitz]

Compelling argument that the claim that Covid is creating heart damage beyond that of other historical viruses was and is FAKE NEWS...

Setting the record straight: There is no 'Covid heart'

In a world where success is measured by clicks, the idea that even mild cases of Covid-19 could pose a new and unprecedented threat to the heart took off, even though it was largely unsubstantiated.

www.statnews.com

Check the date on that opinion piece. There is much newer data available re: this subject. Also, I'll keep my personal opinion to myself, but I'd advise to look further into the author of that piece, Vinay. He's... interesting.

'American Idol' Alum C.J. Harris Dead at 31

C.J. Harris came in sixth place on season 13 of American Idol in 2014

people.com

Why is that link in a Covid thread?

Because haven't you heard? Everyone who dies now died because of the vaccine.

I for one find this line of thinking foolish. We dont even know if these people like Lisa Marie and this American Idol guy were vaccinated.

80% chance, generally, that they were. Not sure how that figure changes when isolating the entertainment industry, but my guess would be that it goes up quite a bit.

Is it Long Covid? Is it the vaxxes? I don't know. Neither do you. Hopefully we'll someday (soon) have the answer b/c people are dropping dead. Literally.

 

[LawFitz]

"What I've seen in my clinical practice has been a substantial massive increase, unprecedented, in menstrual abnormalities prior to pregnancy; a substantial increase in infertility; a substantial increase in miscarriage, fetal death and fetal malformation." - James Thorpe, MD, OB/GYN

What has Dr. James Thorp, OB/GYN, seen in his clinical practice since the rollout of the Covid-19 vaccine?

James Thorp, MD discusses the unprecedented harms he has seen in his practice from the Covid-19 vaccines. Sen. Ron Johnson Roundtable Discussion of Global doctors & medical researchers: Covid-19 Vacci

rumble.com

 

[the moops]

Ahhh - ignore feature is glorious these days

 

[belljr]

Did you know pilots don't need an EKG until they are 40 then its 45, 50, 55

unless its class 1 then its 35, then 40 then yearly

 

[Doug B]

I will say that Dr. Leana Wen's original op/ed in the Washington Post from last Friday was thought-provoking. But it does NOT constitute a 180 on her stance -- she's not saying "It was all BS from the beginning!" She's reporting that data from the front lines is changing, as as such, so must near-future guidance and planning.

We are overcounting covid deaths and hospitalizations. That’s a problem., Washington Post, 1/13/2023
(not paywalled, but requires entry of an email for free reading -- also can be read in a non-cookie gathering window (e.g. Incognito in Chrome)

This part was of especial interest:

Another infectious-disease physician, Shira Doron, has been researching how to more accurately attribute severe illness due to covid. After evaluating medical records of covid patients, she and her colleagues found that use of the steroid dexamethasone, a standard treatment for covid patients with low oxygen levels, was a good proxy measure for hospitalizations due to the coronavirus. If someone who tested positive didn’t receive dexamethasone during their inpatient stay, they were probably in the hospital for a different cause.

Doron’s work was instrumental to Massachusetts changing its hospitalization reporting a year ago to include both total hospitalizations with covid and those that received dexamethasone. In recent months, only about 30 percent of total hospitalizations with covid were primarily attributed to the virus.

This tracks with Doron’s experience at her hospital, Tufts Medical Center, where she also serves as hospital epidemiologist. Earlier in the pandemic, a large proportion of covid-positive hospitalizations were due to covid. But as more people developed some immunity through vaccination or infection, fewer patients were hospitalized because of it. During some days, she said, the proportion of those hospitalized because of covid were as low as 10 percent of the total number reported.

I didn't know there was a good trackable stat that would help count with-COVIDs apart from from-COVIDs. Application of dexamethasone (and maybe other steroids?) -- good to know.

The fact that some (many? most?) hospitals are seeing a decreasing percentage of from-COVID patients, to me, is actually a great thing. Coming from an effect-on-society perspective, it seems clear that COVID is slowly getting tamed. Little by little ... that taming is starting to show up in the data on a few fronts. Not to say it doesn't spread like crazy -- it does. Not to say that the elderly and immunocompromised can forget all about COVID -- they can't. At the individual level, there are still too many heartbreaking stories. But from a top-of-the-mountain view -- overall, of a nation at large -- COVID is packing a lot less of a punch these days.

 

[LawFitz]

Are bad vaccine lots the cause of the adverse reactions? This quote is eye popping...

"80% of all US [VAERS] adverse events are associated with just 1% of the [Covid] vaccine lots. 80% of serious adverse events are associated with just 5% of the lots." - Sen. Ron Johnson

Sen. Ron Johnson tells Charlie Kirk his personal plans to hold Fauci, Rochelle Walensky and the vaccine manufacturers accountable

Sen. Ron Johnson tells Charlie Kirk his personal plans to hold Fauci, Rochelle Walensky and the vaccine manufacturers accountable

rumble.com

 

[Nathan R. Jessep]

Dr. Wen's opinion piece has had a good bit of pushback. Perhaps most notably by Dr. Faust, who happens to live in MA and has published papers on this very subject. Here's his rebuttal:

Data Snapshot: Are we overcounting Covid-19 deaths? No.

It's a fair question. A recent Washington Post column didn't look at the data. A few times during the pandemic, we have overcounted Covid deaths. Mostly, though, we undercount.

insidemedicine.substack.com

He provides plenty of data/charts, but the TL;DR (in his words):

So, my problem with the Post column is that there was no evidence offered for a claim for which we have excellent contradictory data.​

​

If the claim were true, by the way, it would have fairly important implications. Instead, the entire column hinges on a couple of infectious diseases doctors who have not looked at all-cause mortality data, making claims based on anecdote, without offering a single piece of data. One of the experts seems to think that because it’s possible for medical examiners to add Covid to a death certificate when reviewing a death, that this means it is happening so much that we’re overcounting. There’s no indication that is happening at any significant rate. And remember: if it were happening, what’s the first thing we’d see? More Covid deaths than all-cause excess deaths. Do we see that? Nope.​

​

For me, I agree 100% that a decrease in hospitalizations (and pandemic-long trend moving downward) is obviously a great thing. That being said, we cannot allow continued uncontrolled spread and expect this virus to just mutate itself away. It's clear that the vax-and-forget-it strategy that we (collectively) have hitched our wagon to is not going to end this. And I also think the cumulative damage being done by letting people get continuously infected, while yes it may confer some degree of temporary immunity, will have a price to be paid as well in the coming years. It's not just the USA. Canada and the UK, and others, are having similar results, even some with much higher booster uptake rates than the USA,

Meanwhile the people conducting the World Economic Forum in Switzerland seem to have figured it out:

Health and safety The World Economic Forum attaches the highest priority to protecting the safety and well-being of participants, staff and the local community. To create a safe environment at the Annual Meeting 2023, the Forum is working with the world’s leading health experts and virologists, as well as Switzerland’s public authorities, to respond to the evolving global health situation. The Forum continues to monitor the development of the COVID-19 pandemic and consult with health experts and authorities, and will adapt, if needed, the measures accordingly. The Forum strongly recommends that participants are vaccinated with the latest available vaccines and take a COVID-19 test before travelling to Davos. Participants are required to get tested in one of the Forum testing centres (PCR Tests) after arriving in Davos and picking up their badge. Conducting a test will keep the badge active and grant the access to the Annual Meeting’s venues. Failing to conduct an onsite test or a positive test result will lead to the badge being deactivated. Masks and disinfectants will be available throughout the Annual Meeting 2023 at all meeting venues. Additionally, COVID-19 self-tests will be at participants’ disposal at the Forum testing centres and Registration Centre.​

 

[The Commish]

I have no idea why my post was deleted. It was 100% factual. VAERS does NOT record lot numbers. That information is NOT readily available. It's a fable a by Johnson who doesn't know what the hell he is talking about.

Just more of the "I have a theory but no proof" shtick.

 

[Nathan R. Jessep]

I have no idea why my post was deleted. It was 100% factual. VAERS does NOT record lot numbers. That information is NOT readily available. It's a fable a by Johnson who doesn't know what the hell he is talking about.

Just more of the "I have a theory but no proof" shtick.

Oh, was it something about the "bad batches?" I've seen that one making the rounds. Have not seen anything with credible sources though.

 

[IvanKaramazov]

That being said, we cannot allow continued uncontrolled spread and expect this virus to just mutate itself away. It's clear that the vax-and-forget-it strategy that we (collectively) have hitched our wagon to is not going to end this.

That's not the goal. And if it was the goal, it would be unachievable regardless of what we do.

 

[Nathan R. Jessep]

That being said, we cannot allow continued uncontrolled spread and expect this virus to just mutate itself away. It's clear that the vax-and-forget-it strategy that we (collectively) have hitched our wagon to is not going to end this.

That's not the goal. And if it was the goal, it would be unachievable regardless of what we do.

Right. Nothing we can do to stop spread. Just let it burn. Working great so far, huh? Just look at the last paragraph of my post. Of COURSE it is achievable. It's not achievable with a vax-and-forget-it approach. That I agree with.

ETA: I do agree it's currently not the goal. That's kind of my point. We have the wrong goal.

 

[Doug B]

That being said, we cannot allow continued uncontrolled spread and expect this virus to just mutate itself away. It's clear that the vax-and-forget-it strategy that we (collectively) have hitched our wagon to is not going to end this. And I also think the cumulative damage being done by letting people get continuously infected, while yes it may confer some degree of temporary immunity, will have a price to be paid as well in the coming years.

The part in red, unfortunately, is our lot right now because any sterilizing immunity gained (per individual) just doesn't last long enough. We might have better mousetraps in the near future, but as of now we can only mitigate against the spread only so much. For better or worse, society has collectively settled upon a tolerable -- but insufficient -- degree of disruption/'culture change' that won't hinder COVID transmission very much. Society, from a wide view, wants to "live it's life" more than it want to sell out to slow COVID.

The part in blue, regrettably, is also our lot. Today's middle-aged folks and older will (collectively) live average reduced life spans as a result of COVID. Back in 2019, men born in the early 1970s (like me) were probably averaging 83-85 years of life or so. Now? Probably down to 80-82, maybe less. And that's not (really) from COVID deaths so much ... it's from the follow-on effects of multiple COVID infections that we're for sure going to get throughout the back halves of our lives.

COVID's society-wide effects are going to look, in retrospect, something like 2/3 of the population all the sudden took up chain smoking or added lead back into their paints and fuels. One thing I'm hoping for is that repeated exposure to COVID when very young (say, before 7 years old or so) will make the disease much less impactful to individuals when they get past middle age. Since COVID doesn't strike down people before reproductive age, there won't be any very-long-term evolutionary effects the way there was when ancient pathogens pressured our distant prehistoric ancestors -- COVID, for some time hence, will largely (not exclusively) be a disease most impactful the old unless and until treatments improve markedly.

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

Just looking at a bunch of separate COVID metrics all at once and looking at the overall picture:

- Wastewater numbers have just fallen off a cliff since New Years. They are reported in arrears, so the most recent are January 11, 2023.​

​

- Enough time has gone by that holiday-season confirmed case counts are close to locked in. The surge of confirmed cases (7-day average) was pretty mild, IMHO -- from ~40,000 on 11/4/2022 to an oddly lengthy plateau of about 66-68,000 throughout most of December. After adjustments, the baseline level for the first week or two of January is going to still be over 60,000. Comparing the confirmed case counts with the wastewater data ... there must be a significant amount of unseen COVID going around. I can see that as both a positive (95 times out of 100, COVID infection doesn't barely register at the individual level) or a negative (it's just all over, and you never know anymore who's spreading it).​

​

- Hospitalization data has tracked downwards with wastewater, though not as sharply. The number of COVID inpatients dropped about 10% between Jan 2-8, 2023 and Jan 9-15 -- that's a big one-week drop for that metric. ICU admissions also dropped over the same time period, but again, less sharply than hospitalizations (from 5,681 to 5,300 even). These numbers do sometimes get adjusted, so I want to look at them again in a few days.​

​

- Finally, 7-day average of COVID deaths -- this number is going the wrong way even as it's "not so bad" as during the Omicron peak. From a summer 2022 high of 519 on 8/9/2022 to a fall low of 290 on 11/28/2022, the January 11th, 2023 figure is now at 472. All of last week's COVID death numbers are going to be adjusted above 500, no doubt. The question is when will 7-day averages of deaths plateau, and at what level? Here, COVID deaths tracks with Nov-Dec 2022 wastewater data -- not as sharp a rise, but for sure too much. The apparent drop in hospitalization numbers (to be confirmed later) would help halt the rise in death counts, so I'm hoping the hospitalization adjustments aren't too big.​

So with the waste water drop off, are we out of the holiday and new variant surge?

 

[Doug B]

Right. Nothing we can do to stop spread. Just let it burn. Working great so far, huh? Just look at the last paragraph of my post. Of COURSE it is achievable.

Looking at your last paragraph -- yes, I agree with you and no doubt about it: Those kinds of COVID-mitigating measures should be the standard at mass gatherings.

My reservation, though, is that I think mass gathering spread is a relative drop in the bucket. COVID transmission, I believe, gets more mileage out of everyday human interactions -- or just space-sharing. Really, just "living normal life".

 

[Doug B]

So with the waste water drop off, are we out of the holiday and new variant surge?

Looks that way to me. And IMHO, while there was a definite holiday-season rise and a recent fall over the past two months ... any media that speaks of it as numerically comparable to the past two winter surges is being deliberately provocative.

 

[Doug B]

Just looking at a bunch of separate COVID metrics all at once and looking at the overall picture:

- Hospitalization data has tracked downwards with wastewater, though not as sharply. The number of COVID inpatients dropped about 10% between Jan 2-8, 2023 and Jan 9-15 -- that's a big one-week drop for that metric. ICU admissions also dropped over the same time period, but again, less sharply than hospitalizations (from 5,681 to 5,300 even). These numbers do sometimes get adjusted, so I want to look at them again in a few days.​

​

So with the waste water drop off, are we out of the holiday and new variant surge?

BTW, I wanted to check on that hospitalization & ICU data again after a few days -- it legitimately IS dropping, and still very rapidly for the hospitalization metrics. They tended to have gentler rises and falls than confirmed case counts, but now they are close to matching the steep wastewater drop.

 

[The Commish]

I have no idea why my post was deleted. It was 100% factual. VAERS does NOT record lot numbers. That information is NOT readily available. It's a fable a by Johnson who doesn't know what the hell he is talking about.

Just more of the "I have a theory but no proof" shtick.

Oh, was it something about the "bad batches?" I've seen that one making the rounds. Have not seen anything with credible sources though.

Just look up a couple posts, but yeah....Johnson thinks that people are educated enough to get with their phramacy/provider to provide actual lot numbers to put in VAERS of all places. It's flat out lies.

 

[The General]

I know 2 people that died of heart attacks in their late 30s early 40s.......

In the 1990s....

That’s how deep this conspiracy runs.

 

[Scoresman]

I know 2 people that died of heart attacks in their late 30s early 40s.......

In the 1990s....

That’s how deep this conspiracy runs.

Counterpoint. My dad and grandfather both died in their 30s. I'm 46 and still here! The difference? I'm vaxxed!

 

[IvanKaramazov]

That being said, we cannot allow continued uncontrolled spread and expect this virus to just mutate itself away. It's clear that the vax-and-forget-it strategy that we (collectively) have hitched our wagon to is not going to end this.

That's not the goal. And if it was the goal, it would be unachievable regardless of what we do.

Right. Nothing we can do to stop spread. Just let it burn. Working great so far, huh? Just look at the last paragraph of my post. Of COURSE it is achievable. It's not achievable with a vax-and-forget-it approach. That I agree with.

ETA: I do agree it's currently not the goal. That's kind of my point. We have the wrong goal.

I think it is working pretty great so far, yes. I mean, obviously "great" isn't the right word, but I think we landed in a pretty good spot where we've struck approximately the right balance between mitigating the damage of an endemic disease vs. allowing people to live their lives. Vax-and-forget is more or less the right policy IMO.

 

[Nathan R. Jessep]

That being said, we cannot allow continued uncontrolled spread and expect this virus to just mutate itself away. It's clear that the vax-and-forget-it strategy that we (collectively) have hitched our wagon to is not going to end this.

That's not the goal. And if it was the goal, it would be unachievable regardless of what we do.

Right. Nothing we can do to stop spread. Just let it burn. Working great so far, huh? Just look at the last paragraph of my post. Of COURSE it is achievable. It's not achievable with a vax-and-forget-it approach. That I agree with.

ETA: I do agree it's currently not the goal. That's kind of my point. We have the wrong goal.

I think it is working pretty great so far, yes. I mean, obviously "great" isn't the right word, but I think we landed in a pretty good spot where we've struck approximately the right balance between mitigating the damage of an endemic disease vs. allowing people to live their lives. Vax-and-forget is more or less the right policy IMO.

Then we disagree on that. Your opinion is that Covid-19 is now endemic?

 

[Nathan R. Jessep]

Right. Nothing we can do to stop spread. Just let it burn. Working great so far, huh? Just look at the last paragraph of my post. Of COURSE it is achievable.

Looking at your last paragraph -- yes, I agree with you and no doubt about it: Those kinds of COVID-mitigating measures should be the standard at mass gatherings.

My reservation, though, is that I think mass gathering spread is a relative drop in the bucket. COVID transmission, I believe, gets more mileage out of everyday human interactions -- or just space-sharing. Really, just "living normal life".

I don't disagree with your points here. That kind of lends itself to my larger point, which is, in times of uncontrolled spread, there should be extra measures weaved into living normal life, IMHO, and we are not doing that. And I'm talking population level here. It seems that more of a sliding-scale of recommendations/actions would do wonders. Instead we are doing nothing (other than vaccines). The discussion beyond that I'm afraid would start straddling the political line, so I won't expound here.

 

[jobarules]

That being said, we cannot allow continued uncontrolled spread and expect this virus to just mutate itself away. It's clear that the vax-and-forget-it strategy that we (collectively) have hitched our wagon to is not going to end this.

That's not the goal. And if it was the goal, it would be unachievable regardless of what we do.

Right. Nothing we can do to stop spread. Just let it burn. Working great so far, huh? Just look at the last paragraph of my post. Of COURSE it is achievable. It's not achievable with a vax-and-forget-it approach. That I agree with.

ETA: I do agree it's currently not the goal. That's kind of my point. We have the wrong goal.

I think it is working pretty great so far, yes. I mean, obviously "great" isn't the right word, but I think we landed in a pretty good spot where we've struck approximately the right balance between mitigating the damage of an endemic disease vs. allowing people to live their lives. Vax-and-forget is more or less the right policy IMO.

Then we disagree on that. Your opinion is that Covid-19 is now endemic?

Thats everyone opinion. Doctors and even us insurance folks projecting it as endemic starting this year.

 

[Nathan R. Jessep]

That being said, we cannot allow continued uncontrolled spread and expect this virus to just mutate itself away. It's clear that the vax-and-forget-it strategy that we (collectively) have hitched our wagon to is not going to end this. And I also think the cumulative damage being done by letting people get continuously infected, while yes it may confer some degree of temporary immunity, will have a price to be paid as well in the coming years.

The part in red, unfortunately, is our lot right now because any sterilizing immunity gained (per individual) just doesn't last long enough. We might have better mousetraps in the near future, but as of now we can only mitigate against the spread only so much. For better or worse, society has collectively settled upon a tolerable -- but insufficient -- degree of disruption/'culture change' that won't hinder COVID transmission very much. Society, from a wide view, wants to "live it's life" more than it want to sell out to slow COVID.

The part in blue, regrettably, is also our lot. Today's middle-aged folks and older will (collectively) live average reduced life spans as a result of COVID. Back in 2019, men born in the early 1970s (like me) were probably averaging 83-85 years of life or so. Now? Probably down to 80-82, maybe less. And that's not (really) from COVID deaths so much ... it's from the follow-on effects of multiple COVID infections that we're for sure going to get throughout the back halves of our lives.

COVID's society-wide effects are going to look, in retrospect, something like 2/3 of the population all the sudden took up chain smoking or added lead back into their paints and fuels. One thing I'm hoping for is that repeated exposure to COVID when very young (say, before 7 years old or so) will make the disease much less impactful to individuals when they get past middle age. Since COVID doesn't strike down people before reproductive age, there won't be any very-long-term evolutionary effects the way there was when ancient pathogens pressured our distant prehistoric ancestors -- COVID, for some time hence, will largely (not exclusively) be a disease most impactful the old unless and until treatments improve markedly.

76.4 as of end of last year (https://www.npr.org/sections/health...cy-is-now-at-its-lowest-in-nearly-two-decades) and yeah, I definitely expect that to keep trickling down.

And your points are noted, as always, however they seem to be ignoring the possibility of more variants spawning to keep stoking the fire, so to speak. As we are seeing now with XBB.1.5 here and BF7, IIRC, in China, and BQ1 in the UK, variants don't have to be worse (i.e. directly causing clinically more severe infections/hospitalizations) in the sense of causing large scale problems. We have already seen this with "mild" Omicron. And certainly it's not LIKELY that there will be another Omicron-level event, but it should be noted that that one was also unexpected. My point is, it's unwise, IMO to just assume it's going to play itself out and keep doing what we're doing and expecting different results.

 

[Nathan R. Jessep]

That being said, we cannot allow continued uncontrolled spread and expect this virus to just mutate itself away. It's clear that the vax-and-forget-it strategy that we (collectively) have hitched our wagon to is not going to end this.

That's not the goal. And if it was the goal, it would be unachievable regardless of what we do.

Right. Nothing we can do to stop spread. Just let it burn. Working great so far, huh? Just look at the last paragraph of my post. Of COURSE it is achievable. It's not achievable with a vax-and-forget-it approach. That I agree with.

ETA: I do agree it's currently not the goal. That's kind of my point. We have the wrong goal.

I think it is working pretty great so far, yes. I mean, obviously "great" isn't the right word, but I think we landed in a pretty good spot where we've struck approximately the right balance between mitigating the damage of an endemic disease vs. allowing people to live their lives. Vax-and-forget is more or less the right policy IMO.

Then we disagree on that. Your opinion is that Covid-19 is now endemic?

Thats everyone opinion. Doctors and even us insurance folks projecting it as endemic starting this year.

Um, no it's not. The World Health Order would like a word with you.

Just messing with you of course, but the declaration of global pandemic is still active, AFAIK.

What doctors are saying that? And I've read some of the actuarial summaries (I think they were from the end of '22), but if you have more info along those lines, please do share.

 

[jobarules]

That being said, we cannot allow continued uncontrolled spread and expect this virus to just mutate itself away. It's clear that the vax-and-forget-it strategy that we (collectively) have hitched our wagon to is not going to end this.

That's not the goal. And if it was the goal, it would be unachievable regardless of what we do.

Right. Nothing we can do to stop spread. Just let it burn. Working great so far, huh? Just look at the last paragraph of my post. Of COURSE it is achievable. It's not achievable with a vax-and-forget-it approach. That I agree with.

ETA: I do agree it's currently not the goal. That's kind of my point. We have the wrong goal.

I think it is working pretty great so far, yes. I mean, obviously "great" isn't the right word, but I think we landed in a pretty good spot where we've struck approximately the right balance between mitigating the damage of an endemic disease vs. allowing people to live their lives. Vax-and-forget is more or less the right policy IMO.

Then we disagree on that. Your opinion is that Covid-19 is now endemic?

Thats everyone opinion. Doctors and even us insurance folks projecting it as endemic starting this year.

Um, no it's not. The World Health Order would like a word with you.

Just messing with you of course, but the declaration of global pandemic is still active, AFAIK.

What doctors are saying that? And I've read some of the actuarial summaries (I think they were from the end of '22), but if you have more info along those lines, please do share.

I am an actuary and certainly not sharing company data.

Also, Lord Fauci himself said it was endemic. I wouldnt quote anything the WHO states. Theyve been behind the 8 ball on this since day 1.

 

[LawFitz]

I am an actuary and certainly not sharing company data.

Are you getting boosters? Curious for your personal take on them as an actuary.

Without sharing company data per se, are you aware of the shift from igG3 to igG4 antibody production in vaxxed individuals? What's your opinion about that study? It's been routinely ignored, here and in most conversations everywhere - partly b/c it's an esoteric concept; partly b/c the implications are disquieting, I am sure.

 

[Nathan R. Jessep]

That being said, we cannot allow continued uncontrolled spread and expect this virus to just mutate itself away. It's clear that the vax-and-forget-it strategy that we (collectively) have hitched our wagon to is not going to end this.

That's not the goal. And if it was the goal, it would be unachievable regardless of what we do.

Right. Nothing we can do to stop spread. Just let it burn. Working great so far, huh? Just look at the last paragraph of my post. Of COURSE it is achievable. It's not achievable with a vax-and-forget-it approach. That I agree with.

ETA: I do agree it's currently not the goal. That's kind of my point. We have the wrong goal.

I think it is working pretty great so far, yes. I mean, obviously "great" isn't the right word, but I think we landed in a pretty good spot where we've struck approximately the right balance between mitigating the damage of an endemic disease vs. allowing people to live their lives. Vax-and-forget is more or less the right policy IMO.

Then we disagree on that. Your opinion is that Covid-19 is now endemic?

Thats everyone opinion. Doctors and even us insurance folks projecting it as endemic starting this year.

Um, no it's not. The World Health Order would like a word with you.

Just messing with you of course, but the declaration of global pandemic is still active, AFAIK.

What doctors are saying that? And I've read some of the actuarial summaries (I think they were from the end of '22), but if you have more info along those lines, please do share.

I am an actuary and certainly not sharing company data.

Also, Lord Fauci himself said it was endemic. I wouldnt quote anything the WHO states. Theyve been behind the 8 ball on this since day 1.

huh? Of course I don't expect your company data. The others I read were public summaries (I can't recall the actual title of the document(s)). That's what I was referring to.

And you are taking Fauci's word but not the WHO? BTW that was last April when Fauci said that, and he also got a lot of backlash for it. We had relatively low transmission levels then here in the US, but plenty of other countries did not have that same situation. IIRC, he also put out a statement this past fall as he was retiring saying we were still very much in the midst of a pandemic. You can't just cherry pick quotes from the past to defend a position. Also, I don't think anyone in this thread has defended Fauci as being the foremost expert, and most (maybe all) have agreed that public messaging has been screwed up pretty much the entire pandemic, as you just said.

 

[jobarules]

I am an actuary and certainly not sharing company data.

Are you getting boosters? Curious for your personal take on them as an actuary.

Without sharing company data per se, are you aware of the shift from igG3 to igG4 antibody production in vaxxed individuals? What's your opinion about that study? It's been routinely ignored, here and in most conversations everywhere - partly b/c it's an esoteric concept; partly b/c the implications are disquieting, I am sure.

I got one booster in 2021. No more for me.

We dont get vaccine data here. The best we get is 2021 data that there was a high correlation between vaccine rates by states with lower Short Term Disability covid claims. But that data is severely outdated now and before all the variants. STD covid incidence is much lower now (because people dont typically need 7-14 days off for covid anymore).

 

[jobarules]

That being said, we cannot allow continued uncontrolled spread and expect this virus to just mutate itself away. It's clear that the vax-and-forget-it strategy that we (collectively) have hitched our wagon to is not going to end this.

That's not the goal. And if it was the goal, it would be unachievable regardless of what we do.

Right. Nothing we can do to stop spread. Just let it burn. Working great so far, huh? Just look at the last paragraph of my post. Of COURSE it is achievable. It's not achievable with a vax-and-forget-it approach. That I agree with.

ETA: I do agree it's currently not the goal. That's kind of my point. We have the wrong goal.

I think it is working pretty great so far, yes. I mean, obviously "great" isn't the right word, but I think we landed in a pretty good spot where we've struck approximately the right balance between mitigating the damage of an endemic disease vs. allowing people to live their lives. Vax-and-forget is more or less the right policy IMO.

Then we disagree on that. Your opinion is that Covid-19 is now endemic?

Thats everyone opinion. Doctors and even us insurance folks projecting it as endemic starting this year.

Um, no it's not. The World Health Order would like a word with you.

Just messing with you of course, but the declaration of global pandemic is still active, AFAIK.

What doctors are saying that? And I've read some of the actuarial summaries (I think they were from the end of '22), but if you have more info along those lines, please do share.

I am an actuary and certainly not sharing company data.

Also, Lord Fauci himself said it was endemic. I wouldnt quote anything the WHO states. Theyve been behind the 8 ball on this since day 1.

huh? Of course I don't expect your company data. The others I read were public summaries (I can't recall the actual title of the document(s)). That's what I was referring to.

And you are taking Fauci's word but not the WHO? BTW that was last April when Fauci said that, and he also got a lot of backlash for it. We had relatively low transmission levels then here in the US, but plenty of other countries did not have that same situation. IIRC, he also put out a statement this past fall as he was retiring saying we were still very much in the midst of a pandemic. You can't just cherry pick quotes from the past to defend a position. Also, I don't think anyone in this thread has defended Fauci as being the foremost expert, and most (maybe all) have agreed that public messaging has been screwed up pretty much the entire pandemic, as you just said.

I was obviously being tongue in cheek about Fauci. The Lord didnt give it away?

 

[IvanKaramazov]

That being said, we cannot allow continued uncontrolled spread and expect this virus to just mutate itself away. It's clear that the vax-and-forget-it strategy that we (collectively) have hitched our wagon to is not going to end this.

That's not the goal. And if it was the goal, it would be unachievable regardless of what we do.

Right. Nothing we can do to stop spread. Just let it burn. Working great so far, huh? Just look at the last paragraph of my post. Of COURSE it is achievable. It's not achievable with a vax-and-forget-it approach. That I agree with.

ETA: I do agree it's currently not the goal. That's kind of my point. We have the wrong goal.

I think it is working pretty great so far, yes. I mean, obviously "great" isn't the right word, but I think we landed in a pretty good spot where we've struck approximately the right balance between mitigating the damage of an endemic disease vs. allowing people to live their lives. Vax-and-forget is more or less the right policy IMO.

Then we disagree on that. Your opinion is that Covid-19 is now endemic?

Yeah, obviously. Covid isn't going away. It isn't going to be eradicated, and it's just going to keep circulating. No amount of wishful thinking is going to change that, so we should just get on with it.

I don't care if epidemiologists use the word "endemic" in more a more technical way. I'm just speaking colloquially here.

 

[Nathan R. Jessep]

That being said, we cannot allow continued uncontrolled spread and expect this virus to just mutate itself away. It's clear that the vax-and-forget-it strategy that we (collectively) have hitched our wagon to is not going to end this.

That's not the goal. And if it was the goal, it would be unachievable regardless of what we do.

Right. Nothing we can do to stop spread. Just let it burn. Working great so far, huh? Just look at the last paragraph of my post. Of COURSE it is achievable. It's not achievable with a vax-and-forget-it approach. That I agree with.

ETA: I do agree it's currently not the goal. That's kind of my point. We have the wrong goal.

I think it is working pretty great so far, yes. I mean, obviously "great" isn't the right word, but I think we landed in a pretty good spot where we've struck approximately the right balance between mitigating the damage of an endemic disease vs. allowing people to live their lives. Vax-and-forget is more or less the right policy IMO.

Then we disagree on that. Your opinion is that Covid-19 is now endemic?

Yeah, obviously. Covid isn't going away. It isn't going to be eradicated, and it's just going to keep circulating. No amount of wishful thinking is going to change that, so we should just get on with it.

I don't care if epidemiologists use the word "endemic" in more a more technical way. I'm just speaking colloquially here.

I'm not trying to be difficult here, IK, and maybe I am misunderstanding you. You seem to be hung up on the idea that there are 2 outcomes here. Let it rip and live with it (which is what we are doing now) or complete eradication (which neither I nor anyone else has advocated for in this thread that I have seen). Because in my mind there are certainly steps between what we are doing now and "wishful thinking" to help "tame" (to borrow Doug's word) Covid to an endemic, perhaps one PREDICTABLE wave per year, level. It has been neither once or a year nor predictable. That is my larger point.