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***OFFICIAL CYDY/Leronlimab Thread*** (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter This_Guy
- Start date
needanap
Footballguy
Discharge alive: In addition, patients who received leronlimab demonstrated an improved probability of "discharged alive" at Day 28 (28% versus 11%), a 166% better rate than in the placebo group.
Guessing a bit on the numbers (it was 2/1 LL/placebo I think), but is this saying that 12 out 43 who got LL lived while 31 died? And 17 of 19 on the placebo died? And this did not include any that might have died later.
These numbers combined with hearing the vaccines are 95% effective keeping you from going critical makes me want to get the vaccine asap.
Guessing a bit on the numbers (it was 2/1 LL/placebo I think), but is this saying that 12 out 43 who got LL lived while 31 died? And 17 of 19 on the placebo died? And this did not include any that might have died later.
These numbers combined with hearing the vaccines are 95% effective keeping you from going critical makes me want to get the vaccine asap.
IC FBGCav
Footballguy
Some person that I don't know is going to the government site to give there opinion. They are not immersed in this like we are.
needanap
Footballguy
Survival benefit: There was a 24% reduction in all-cause mortality (primary endpoint of the study) in the leronlimab versus placebo.
So there was 166% better rate of leaving the hospital alive, but only a 24% reduction in all cause mortality at the end point? Anyone one have an explanation on this?
ex-ghost
Footballguy
Capella
Footballguy
Maybe we’re being negative about this bc that’s what we are trained to do? Guess it doesn’t really matter till Monday morning either way.
IC FBGCav
Footballguy
I told the results and it wasn't bad. But no context. Giving the opinion on the little info I give.
Chaz McNulty
Footballguy
Did you let her know that the 24% reduction in death was only for the 62 Critical patients. They never gave data on the 320 severe patients.
chet
Footballguy
I just got off the phone with someone who is VERY knowledgable has been involved but not with CYDY. Key takeaways:
1) They focused on the critical pop. Humanigen and Relief both pulled criticals from their studies. This is very positive because there is nothing to treat these people.
2) 24% reduction in mortality in that cohort--not stat significant because of the low number of patients (62)
3) Stat significant reduction in hospital stay by 6 days. This is a big money saver and is what got remdesivir an EUA.
4) They've enrolled 45 OLE patients with the blessing and help of the FDA.
Bottom line: while the results were not what I hoped, this drug is far from dead in terms of getting an EUA. I think the stock struggles on Monday as the shorts paint a bleaker picture but there is a real opportunity with the criticals.
1) They focused on the critical pop. Humanigen and Relief both pulled criticals from their studies. This is very positive because there is nothing to treat these people.
2) 24% reduction in mortality in that cohort--not stat significant because of the low number of patients (62)
3) Stat significant reduction in hospital stay by 6 days. This is a big money saver and is what got remdesivir an EUA.
4) They've enrolled 45 OLE patients with the blessing and help of the FDA.
Bottom line: while the results were not what I hoped, this drug is far from dead in terms of getting an EUA. I think the stock struggles on Monday as the shorts paint a bleaker picture but there is a real opportunity with the criticals.
IC FBGCav
Footballguy
IC FBGCav
Footballguy
ex-ghost
Footballguy
This is so painful. Slow bleed. I hate that we need to continue to wait. Nader is an idiot.
IC FBGCav
Footballguy
It is, because it screaming scam. At the least not worthy. Its easy. Everyone take out the money and vested interest. Do a pro and con list. Its cons big.
But doesn't mean....there is the carrot
Chaz McNulty
Footballguy
If they had gotten 24% reduction across the board, we would all be doing the happy dance. I believe that would have put the P-value below .05. Unfortunately the trial had a really low number of Critical patients. 62 patients just isn't enough to power results.
We could be talking about 10 out of 21 deaths for Palcebo, and 15 out of 42 deaths for LL.
ex-ghost
Footballguy
needanap
Footballguy
This from the statement -- probability of "discharged alive" at Day 28 (28% versus 11%) -- makes it seems the number of deaths is much higher than 10 and 15.
IC FBGCav
Footballguy
The thing is, no one knows what it needed to be statistically significant. I'm not sure what the FDA says they needed to meet.
IC FBGCav
Footballguy
500k dead and we have a 68 patient study that shows basically nothing. If the severe is showing no improvement you have to wonder if you critical results were dumb luck.
Chaz McNulty
Footballguy
One of the problem with the severe trial is that it takes more then 28 days to progress from severe to critical to death. I really wish we could see the actual data as well as any more information regarding the extension to 48 and 60 days.
Dude, don’t you want to invest in a cutting edge stage coach?
Also repeating myself, but congrats on playing this perfectly and turning it into a 2nd home.
IC FBGCav
Footballguy
I have never regretted taking my profits when I did. I don't think I ever will. I will always hold 10k of cydy just in case.Dude, don’t you want to invest in a cutting edge stage coach?
Also repeating myself, but congrats on playing this perfectly and turning it into a 2nd home.
I will have a cornhole at the cabin!
Charlie Harper
Footballguy
Gotta give it to NP. Knows how to string them along.
First bullet point and primary end point...no mention of statistical significance. That says it all.
My hospital in the Bay Area has 20 Covid patients and was as low as 13 last week. This was after being in the low 100s in December and January.
Vaccines are rolling out in developed countries. Not sure poorer nations can afford the drug. CYDY missed the boat. Guess it's onto the next disease since HIV and COVID haven't been approved yet.
First bullet point and primary end point...no mention of statistical significance. That says it all.
My hospital in the Bay Area has 20 Covid patients and was as low as 13 last week. This was after being in the low 100s in December and January.
Vaccines are rolling out in developed countries. Not sure poorer nations can afford the drug. CYDY missed the boat. Guess it's onto the next disease since HIV and COVID haven't been approved yet.
Dwayne Hoover
Footballguy
Guy saying its a three digit stock 3 days ago, should be in jail. Scammed
Dwayne Hoover
Footballguy
Why is everyone on yahoo celebrating?
The Blue Baron
Footballguy
If this was for some other indication for a disease with a long-term horizon, I would be excited and wait for the results of another trial. Problem is, COVID with the vaccines along with other potential treatments from HGEN, MERCK, EDSA, AVIR, etc. there is a short-term horizon. They did not provide how many more patients will be required for another trial to meet statistical significance or even if this will be approved by the FDA. I suspect we are looking at another trial with 200 critical patients. When will it start? April Fools if we’re lucky and perhaps end sometime in the fall and how long will it require to report these results? If we’re looking at 2022, how much revenue can be made when most of the population should be vaccinated? If other treatments are approved, how many patients will reach critical stage of the disease? If Pfizer was running this, no biggie but CytoDyn is small and strapped for cash. They needed revenue yesterday and they missed their endpoint and did not advise so in the PR and did not provide the other numbers. I don’t remember all the details but at some point they halted the trials and doubled study locations. If only they had known to focus on critical or started with more locations to enable them to potentially start another trial. From a risk/profit benefit, is it even worth it to pursue this for them?
Adam Feuerstein has already tweeted and you can be sure there will be a STAT news article.
“leronlimab ph3 study in patients w/ severe Covid19 failed its primary endpoint - improvement in mortality. As with its previous failed study in moderate Covid, the company is spinning the data to cushion the blow of a negative outcome.”
I wonder if Mrs. Kelly will sell her shares Monday morning or wait for the Nader Pump?
Adam Feuerstein has already tweeted and you can be sure there will be a STAT news article.
“leronlimab ph3 study in patients w/ severe Covid19 failed its primary endpoint - improvement in mortality. As with its previous failed study in moderate Covid, the company is spinning the data to cushion the blow of a negative outcome.”
I wonder if Mrs. Kelly will sell her shares Monday morning or wait for the Nader Pump?
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The Blue Baron
Footballguy
This will be the last pump before the final dump! When will the HIV BLA be filed? I don't invest in unicorns.
Chaz McNulty
Footballguy
From Yahoo board. The numbers workout with the details from the PR.
Capella
Footballguy
Dwayne Hoover
Footballguy
These are some of the dumbest people I've ever met and knew I shouldn't have been on the same side as most of them.
calstang66 3 hours ago
"Severe data not in the PR. Leronlimab may have reduced death in severe by 100%"
Amy 3 hours ago
Monday morning PR announcing mind-blowing severe population results. Had to release the critical data now to give lay investors time to get any confusion under control.
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Dwayne Hoover
Footballguy
62 patients isn't getting them anywhere. This is the same cherry picked data they did in CD10 that went nowhere.
I can only hope that there will be some buyers on Monday.
AAABatteries
Footballguy
That sometimes happens with age - nothing to be embarrassed about. You’re in the trust tree.
What's the strategy. I'm thinking market order and keep my fingers crossed it sells for over $2. Usually there's a pretty significant bounce off the bottom but I can't imagine anyone wanting to own this stock again as they will be out of business by the end of the year.
She already sold here shares when she became aware that the study failed to meet it's endpoint.
Capella
Footballguy
Lol this is way too pessimistic. This is becoming a cult stock, there will be plenty of buyers.
Capella
Footballguy
Dwayne Hoover
Footballguy
Hoping this PR was confusing and gives enough hope that some are hesitant to sell right away.
Are Chet and his cohorts gonna sell at open?
If I get out without too much further damage would be minor miracle
chet
Footballguy
If the FDA grants an EUA, the stock will soar. If they say you need 100 more patients, the stock will be crushed.
Woodcock has been very vocal about being more lenient in the pandemic. Let's hope that leniency extends to small companies and not just BP. However, after the story about Mexico suing Gilead for trying to block other HIV treatments, I am sure they are also in Woodcock's ear urging her to get more data from CYDY.
Woodcock has been very vocal about being more lenient in the pandemic. Let's hope that leniency extends to small companies and not just BP. However, after the story about Mexico suing Gilead for trying to block other HIV treatments, I am sure they are also in Woodcock's ear urging her to get more data from CYDY.
Dwayne Hoover
Footballguy
I can't get over how there are now a slew of longs that are clinging to a belief that NP is saving the best data for Monday morning.
It's a cult for sure. It's bizarre.
It's a cult for sure. It's bizarre.
Dwayne Hoover
Footballguy
Wouldn't be surprised at all if it goes up a bit at open before plummeting.
Chaz McNulty
Footballguy
I really think the company screwed up by not looking at the data at the 50% point. They would have been able to see where they were hitting and where they were missing. And at that point they could have pivoted to the more critical patients. Also surprised that the board had them just carry on with the study and not recommend this themselves.
