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*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!! (5 Viewers)

I've lost 21 out of 23 bets and owe Kurt a package. Anyone have anything that they feel strongly about please to get me off the schnide?

 
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I'm taking the Sonnen under because I have zero faith in Chael putting in any actual effort.  Silva has been dead serious the entire 5 years of this feud.  If this starts going against Chael at all, I think we are going to see a late career Bob Sapp approach.  That's where you just cover up and roll, when the ref saves you get up and cash your check. 

If Chaels wrestling still works, he'll have time to sub Silva, who I can't picture training anything but striking.

Another Bellator #### show billed as the headliner.

I'd hammer the u1.5 -160 Couture/Gozali if I had it available at my books.

 
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hooter311 said:
I'm taking the Sonnen under because I have zero faith in Chael putting in any actual effort.  Silva has been dead serious the entire 5 years of this feud.  If this starts going against Chael at all, I think we are going to see a late career Bob Sapp approach.  That's where you just cover up and roll, when the ref saves you get up and cash your check. 

If Chaels wrestling still works, he'll have time to sub Silva, who I can't picture training anything but striking.

Another Bellator ####

I'd hammer the u1.5 -160 Couture/Gozali if I had it available at my books.
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I have u1.5 -171 on gozali, want some on it? We can settle up via PayPal

 
Good Posting Judge said:
+1 on GGG. He seems like a ridiculously kind and stand-up dude in a sport that constantly lacks for them. 

The Jacobs fight changed everything. GGG's look-ahead odds vs. Canelo went from -400 to right about where they are now. Paddy had them back up right after the Jacobs fight at -175and they haven't moved far from them since. Similarly, it compelled De La Hoya to finally come out of the cold and make the fight. 

He hasn't taken a lot of punishment and he still seems indestructible, but I think it's fair to say that he's lost maybe one step. The concern for me is that GGG fights another measured, jab-heavy, tactical fight, and something goofy happens on the scorecards, given that Canelo's positioned as the premier Vegas PPV attraction now, and can rake in a ton for the town on the traditional Mexican fight weekends. I think GGG should take some risks and "blitz" Canelo a bit, the same way Joshua did to Klitschko, to great effect.
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I agree on nearly everything, I couldn't even imagine how much Vegas would be sweating during the fight if they hung a +300 Canelo number out there.  Narco-economics.  

ETA:

Sadly, I also agree that this "Primetime" GGG isn't "Prime" GGG and we'll never be able to understand just how good that guy was because he wasn't challenged at that stage of career because no decent fighter would take the auto loss.

Ward is yapping about wanting Joshua, wouldn't that be something.  I actually don't think Joshua would want any of that.

 
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So I've been with the same company for over 11 years now, basically since college.  Got a job for an independent agency worked my way up on the totem pole to department director and upon realizing office work was making me insurance, I transitioned to Individual Insurance sales.  Have done quite well for myself the past 5 years, 1100+ health insurance clients on the books all receiving renewals from carrier.  I get a new commission agreement and noncompete agreement basically saying if I left the company or died I wouldn't get the renewals anymore.  The more I think about it, I'm not sure they had me sign a new noncompete when I transitioned.  We have a meeting with company president Monday morning to turn these contracts in.  I'm not signing #### which I assume is going to lead to my termination.  Options from there are going to be real fun.

What a walk down the plank this weekend feels like.  Accept the timing of your life I guess.  You would think companies would reward those who produce for them, not try to find ways to rip them off.  They are attempting to switch Independent Contractors into employees.  Kind of feels like what the UFC was doing before their sale with the #### Reebok deal.  I'm sure this will be grossly misinterpreted as an assault on the agency rather than standing up for myself so I'm going to just have to let them get pissed and throw a fit.

I figure to position myself in the first chair, guaranteeing myself to be the martyr.  Always a glutton for punishment.

 
Peyton Marino said:
Chael Sonnen is fighting again? I thought he retired to focus on calling the Jim Rome show
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Well, Wanderlei's last fight was in 2013, but it was in the UFC and he did beat and retire Brian Stann, who is a much better fighter and commentator than Chael.  Chael fought last in the UFC 4 years ago when he got ko'd in the first round by Rashad Evans.  He did choke out Shogun in the UFC in Aug 2013. 

Chael already had his "comeback" fight a few months ago where he appeared to have Tito Ortiz beat before Tito turned the tables and Chael insta-tapped to a "neck crank" and then retired again.  After typing that and looking at Silva's record again...

adding

Wanderlei Silva +168

 
hooter311 said:
So I've been with the same company for over 11 years now, basically since college.  Got a job for an independent agency worked my way up on the totem pole to department director and upon realizing office work was making me insurance, I transitioned to Individual Insurance sales.  Have done quite well for myself the past 5 years, 1100+ health insurance clients on the books all receiving renewals from carrier.  I get a new commission agreement and noncompete agreement basically saying if I left the company or died I wouldn't get the renewals anymore.  The more I think about it, I'm not sure they had me sign a new noncompete when I transitioned.  We have a meeting with company president Monday morning to turn these contracts in.  I'm not signing #### which I assume is going to lead to my termination.  Options from there are going to be real fun.

What a walk down the plank this weekend feels like.  Accept the timing of your life I guess.  You would think companies would reward those who produce for them, not try to find ways to rip them off.  They are attempting to switch Independent Contractors into employees.  Kind of feels like what the UFC was doing before their sale with the #### Reebok deal.  I'm sure this will be grossly misinterpreted as an assault on the agency rather than standing up for myself so I'm going to just have to let them get pissed and throw a fit.

I figure to position myself in the first chair, guaranteeing myself to be the martyr.  Always a glutton for punishment.
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I thought most companies were going the other way? Independent contractors don't get benefits, employees do.

 
lumpy19 said:
I thought most companies were going the other way? Independent contractors don't get benefits, employees do.
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That's exactly why it makes no sense for them to do this, except to have everything in a nice to package to sell.  They are telling us about all these great benefits, but in reality my 401k "profit sharing" was 3% of salary, but commissions aren't considered.  So it was $540.00 last year when I know policies that I've signed and submitted on bringing in 250k+ each year. They would have been better off giving me zero.

I'm going to play dumb and see if they'll just buy me out and I'll find a new industry.

 
So far bellator has ran out of time on the broadcast for both Bader's Championship interview, and an entire 3 round fight that will now be an after PPV dark match featuring a Gracie.

Really makes you want to go out of your way to pay for the product.

 
hooter311 said:
So far bellator has ran out of time on the broadcast for both Bader's Championship interview, and an entire 3 round fight that will now be an after PPV dark match featuring a Gracie.

Really makes you want to go out of your way to pay for the product.
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How'd they run out of time?  Didn't some dude get choked out in 2 minutes?

 
got_nugs said:
How'd they run out of time?  Didn't some dude get choked out in 2 minutes?
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How do they not have the fight order published correctly on their own website? or anywhere for that matter.

They are opening with a title fight that should be headlining instead of one that was relevant 5 years ago.

 
hooter311 said:
How do they not have the fight order published correctly on their own website? or anywhere for that matter.

They are opening with a title fight that should be headlining instead of one that was relevant 5 years ago.
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The Larkin fight is 1st?  what the hell is going on?  I feel like @Eminence is involved somehow.

 
hooter311 said:
How do they not have the fight order published correctly on their own website? or anywhere for that matter.

They are opening with a title fight that should be headlining instead of one that was relevant 5 years ago.
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Ugh, it screwed me and I didn't get to play Bader

 
Clorox said:
I've lost 21 out of 23 bets and owe Kurt a package. Anyone have anything that they feel strongly about please to get me off the schnide?
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If it's any consolation, you're not alone.  I haven't had a winning day in nearly 2 weeks, and this is my worst month ever.  Thank God football season is only 2 months or so away. 

 
hooter311 said:
11 pm

I have it maxed solo and parlayed with the Sonnen under as well.  Another regular unit on those 2 + Larkin Parlay that pays 3.14

UFC card tomorrow evening, same time as the race.  Hard sports to watch together.  I'd rather listen to NASCAR on the radio anyway.
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1/2 way home!

 
That was not a strong finish...tightening up these plays for tomorrow's race and UFC card. 

I have one big dog in mind, seems like everyone else is forgetting to address a huge factor in one of the fights.

 
Broke out my old spreadsheet from 2014 and updated all data.  Ran it yesterday afternoon and came out with Speith and Weekley both projected top 4, might be on to something with it.

I may have an irrational fear of becoming stupid.  

WARNING:

These are winners:

Merrit -120 o Molder

Steele -120 o Harman

Kokrak -135 o Rodgers

Murray +110 o Summerhayes

Leishman +100 o Reed

Daniel Berger to win +800

 
regularguy said:
If it's any consolation, you're not alone.  I haven't had a winning day in nearly 2 weeks, and this is my worst month ever.  Thank God football season is only 2 months or so away. 
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I'm sorry you had the same fate man. It's not fun when you keep placing bets thinking something will give. 0-3 again last night, running my streak to 2-24. I have to walk away for a while even though I want to keep plugging away. 

I am assuming a $0 balance at RB means an email is forthcoming? 

 
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5D has "Luke not identified as Rey's father in Last Jedi" at -380, and Abrams has said that Rey's parents are not in Episode 7, so unless he's lying that's a free winner. Max $100 bet!

 
Clorox said:
I'm sorry you had the same fate man. It's not fun when you keep placing bets thinking something will give. 0-3 again last night, running my streak to 2-24. I have to walk away for a while even though I want to keep plugging away. 

I am assuming a $0 balance at RB means an email is forthcoming? 
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I can never figure out the EOM. 

supposed to be last Sunday of month but with a reset balance it would indicate EOM this month was processed on a Saturday. 

Maybe it's a mistake?

I have several winners yesterday graded as losers for a bit til they corrected themselves ?

 
comfortably numb said:
I can never figure out the EOM. 

supposed to be last Sunday of month but with a reset balance it would indicate EOM this month was processed on a Saturday. 

Maybe it's a mistake?

I have several winners yesterday graded as losers for a bit til they corrected themselves ?
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Thanks GB. Mine still shows $0. I was hoping they'd wait for the Westbrook verdict tomorrow so I either owed $100 less or $110 more. 

 
NASCAR Sonoma

To win:

Clint Bowyer +1000

Kurt Busch +1200

Denny Hamlin +1200

The matchup that cashes:

Kurt Busch +150 over Allmendinger

I'm more than a little concerned what the stages are going to mean for road racing.  1 mistake on a road track and you are in the back.  Harder to total your car out at least.  Tony Stewart winning his last race here is a good sign that you can push your way to the front if you need the win bad enough.

Today is going to be a very profitable day, enjoy!

 
A sampling of my Sunday plays:

[7509] KURT BUSCH +150 

[7512] CLINT BOWYER -110 

[7519] JOEY LOGANO -110 

[7521] JAMIE MCMURRAY -160 

[7531] RYAN NEWMAN -175 

[7537] PAUL MENARD -150 

[44323] A RIZZO TTL BASES -115 
(A RIZZO TTL BASES vrs M OZUNA TTL BASES)

[44336] M CARPENTER TTL BASES -125 
(J HARRISON TTL BASES vrs M CARPENTER TTL BASES)

 

 
Sure AJ is good at road courses, but he also has a knack for hammering his equipment too hard and not finishing.  Since 2012 his best finish here is only 9th.  Kurt's avg finish in that time is 6.2 with a best of 2nd.

If your a fan of Tin Cup, you might want to take a flyer on Dale Jr as he looks to solve his yips with the shifter.

 
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