There’s been less research, however, into gender among primary voters, although we know that Clinton’s gap between male and female voters was sizable in 2008. And that gap has widened even further in 2016 in the states that have voted thus far, according to a comparison of CNN exit polls. On average, Clinton’s performance with women in those states was 7.5 percent better than it was with men in 2008. This year, that gap has reached 10.5 percent.
In Virginia, which voted on Super Tuesday and will be a swing state this fall, Clinton
won 70 percent of women to Sanders’s 30 percent.
She also won among men, but by a smaller 57 to 42 percent margin. In the 2008 Virginia contest, Clinton
lost both voting segments handily to Obama. And her gender gap was narrower—getting the support of 39 percent of women voters and 30 percent of men.
In the Michigan election earlier this week, Clinton
beat Sanders among women voters by a 5-point margin.
But she lost men by a wider 11 points and the race by just 1.5 percent. It’s unclear what is driving this widening gap in Clinton’s performance between women and men. There’s plenty of speculation that male voters are angrier than women voters, and that’s why they’re turning to candidates like Sanders and Trump, who’ve both promised to challenge the establishment. But there’s little evidence that anger is what’s driving the gender gap in the Democratic primary. In fact, one of the few surveys to break out voters’ anger levels by gender,
a January online poll from NBC News, Survey Monkey and
Esquire, found that “women slightly edge out men in their outrage, 53 percent to 44 percent.”
It’s also worth noting that the “angry electorate” meme is a bit overplayed in general. An
ABC News/Washington Post poll released Tuesday found that the number of voters who report being angry about the way government works has actually been dropping for the last several years—it’s down 11 points from a high of 32 percent in October 2013.
Carroll wonders if the growth in Clinton’s gender gap is because, unlike in 2008, she is “openly talking about being a woman and appealing to women voters.” That, she says, could both draw more female support while turning off some men.
“I don’t think there are big ideological differences there that can explain why Bernie Sanders is getting more support” from white male voters, says Carroll. “Is there something going on with white men there?”