SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
Hillary will win IA & NH in the primaries.I dunno. Part of me wants to believe those numbers Squisition posted, and yet...
1. Iowans tend to be iconoclastic in these caucuses. They seem to love surprising people in the last second by choosing an underdog nobody saw. This is true of both parties.
2. Iowa doesn't have a history of liking Hillary Clinton. She came in 3rd, not 2nd, in 2008. People forget this. If Obama had not been in the race, there is every reason to believe that John Edwards would have won Iowa (he had basically moved there in 2006 just for this purpose.) Now with no Obama, Edwards' campaign would have fallen apart within a few weeks after Iowa due to the revelations about his girlfriend, but he would have won Iowa.
3. Nobody outside of the political class knows who Sanders, Webb, Chafee, or O Malley are. The debates this fall will change that. If Hillary stumbles, or somebody comes off as especially charismatic, Iowa could change. That happened in late 2007. Hillary was winning every debate pretty handily when suddenly she was confronted with a question about drivers licenses for illegals which she refused to answer. Her poll numbers went down, and Obama's shot up, all a month before Iowa.
I believe, very strongly, that Hillary Clinton is a shoe-in for the Democratic nomination. But is she a shoo-in to win Iowa hands down? There's a lot of time between now and then.
The key is to win convincingly (I'm thinking at least 60+%) and generate excitement among the base for the GE. The Demos are already (I believe) limiting debates. The main thing is that she emerges without gaffs or somehow offending the most liberal/progressive by getting into it with (most likely) Sanders (and I think that last is very doubtful).
			
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