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Official Hillary Clinton 2016 thread (5 Viewers)

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TripItUp said:
That's a diversion.

Yes or no, the Republicans want Hillary to be the nominee?
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No. Absolutely not. Several Republican groups spent millions of dollars trying to help Bernie defeat Hillary. This is well documented. Absolutely they recognize Hillary was their strongest candidate. 

Many Democrats, on the other hand, are absolutely giddy that it appears that she is going to be facing Donald Trump. 

 
timschochet said:
I don't think so. Look at these numbers. Remember all that talk about black people not energized to vote for Hillary? 
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This shouldn't be a surprise, she was winning the black vote the entire time and will drown him in the South because of it.  Barack Obama destroyed Hillary the same way 8 years ago.  To win in the South as a Democrat you have to win African Americans.  The margins are going to be ugly tonight and likely on Super Tuesday.

 
Shula-holic said:
This shouldn't be a surprise, she was winning the black vote the entire time and will drown him in the South because of it.  Barack Obama destroyed Hillary the same way 8 years ago.  To win in the South as a Democrat you have to win African Americans.  The margins are going to be ugly tonight and likely on Super Tuesday.
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i wrote this months ago, but even though I'm happy Hillary is winning tonight, this is a monstrosity in the South that conservative white people created. Basically starting in 1968 (Nixon's southern strategy) they abandoned the Democratic party to African-Americans. Now as a result of that desertion, who gets to decide who the Democratic nominee will be? Black people, in the minority, in states which will mostly be red in the general election! It's absurd, as a far from "democratic" as could be imagined, and yet here we are. 

 
timschochet said:
No. Absolutely not. Several Republican groups spent millions of dollars trying to help Bernie defeat Hillary. This is well documented. Absolutely they recognize Hillary was their strongest candidate. 

Many Democrats, on the other hand, are absolutely giddy that it appears that she is going to be facing Donald Trump. 
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That's right. From 538: Romney win 59% of white voters in 2012, compared to Reagan's 56% in 1980. But still lost because the Republican base of white, older less educated voters is shrinking fast. 

 
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timschochet said:
i wrote this months ago, but even though I'm happy Hillary is winning tonight, this is a monstrosity in the South that conservative white people created. Basically starting in 1968 (Nixon's southern strategy) they abandoned the Democratic party to African-Americans. Now as a result of that desertion, who gets to decide who the Democratic nominee will be? Black people, in the minority, in states which will mostly be red in the general election! It's absurd, as a far from "democratic" as could be imagined, and yet here we are. 
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Christ.

It's the Democratic party's fault that white voters left, not the fault of the voters themselves.

 
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The dynamics of the national map in this election look a lot like a general election IMO. Hillary is far more poised to seize the swing states in the primaries than GOP candidates are in the general.

 
SoBeDad said:
That's right. From 538: Romney win 59% of white voters in 2012, compared top Reagan's 56% in 1980. But still lost because the Republican base of white, older less educated voters is shrinking fast. 
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The difference, of course, is that unlike in 2012, all of the energy is on the Republican side.  You can basically throw out the numbers from the last three elections.

 
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timschochet said:
i wrote this months ago, but even though I'm happy Hillary is winning tonight, this is a monstrosity in the South that conservative white people created. Basically starting in 1968 (Nixon's southern strategy) they abandoned the Democratic party to African-Americans. Now as a result of that desertion, who gets to decide who the Democratic nominee will be? Black people, in the minority, in states which will mostly be red in the general election! It's absurd, as a far from "democratic" as could be imagined, and yet here we are. 
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Your dates are a little off.  It flipped during the Reagan era here.  My granddad used to be the chairman of our county Democratic Party and Richard Shelby always would visit with him, obviously as a Democrat.  Until the late '80s at the state and county level you couldn't win here unless you were a Democrat.  I don't deny that there was a portion of it caused by civil rights but it was not an exodus at that time the way it is portrayed.  In fact, Alabama's first Republican governor since Reconstruction only won due to the two Democrats suing one another over Republican crossover votes.  The guy who won, was not even a serious candidate, he was supposed to be a sacrificial lamb in the general and ended up being the governor.

I do agree with your last statement, but unless you want to say you aren't awarding delegates to "red" states in primaries I'm not sure what you do.

 
TripItUp said:
The difference, of course, is that unlike in 2012, all of the energy is on the Republican side.  You can basically throw out the numbers from the last three elections.
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Some of them are energized. Some of them are disgusted. 

If these numbers hold up, then in order to win Trump is going to have to get around 65% of the white vote- highest ever in American history, 14 points higher than Reagan got in 1980. Do you really think this is likely to happen? 

 
timschochet said:
In the South, they left because they didn't like integration of black people. 
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But nothing has prevented the party from trying to win over the voters since.

Nobody cares about what happened 60 years ago. 

People vote with hearts and minds, not with political science.

 
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timschochet said:
Some of them are energized. Some of them are disgusted. 

If these numbers hold up, then in order to win Trump is going to have to get around 65% of the white vote- highest ever in American history, 14 points higher than Reagan got in 1980. Do you really think this is likely to happen? 
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A) I don't believe that number (65)

B) I do believe we are going to see a record turnout for white, Republican voters...everything that has occurred thus far supports that.  60 is a forgone conclusion...how high from there is anybody's guess.

 
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TripItUp said:
The difference, of course, is that unlike in 2012, all of the energy is on the Republican side.  You can basically throw out the numbers from the last three elections.
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True that Donald has energized part of the Republican party. But the overall  demographic obstacle for Republicans is even greater than it was in 2012: Romney's 3.9% overall deficit grows to 5.1%. If Hillary dominates Sanders in Florida, I'll bet the house on her against Trump. 

 
SoBeDad said:
True that Donald has energized part of the Republican party. But the overall  demographic obstacle for Republicans is even greater than it was in 2012: Romney's 3.9% overall deficit grows to 5.1%. If Hillary dominates Sanders in Florida, I'll bet the house on her against Trump. 
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So true, the biggest obstacle for the Republicans.  It's the dirty truth of politics, and Sanders is running into it tonight.  Demographics is everything in politics.  

 
SoBeDad said:
True that Donald has energized part of the Republican party. But the overall  demographic obstacle for Republicans is even greater than it was in 2012: Romney's 3.9% overall deficit grows to 5.1%. If Hillary dominates Sanders in Florida, I'll bet the house on her against Trump. 
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Voter turnout can Trump(pun intended) demographics from past elections.

This is what pretty much every pundit has missed and why they have been wrong time after time.  It's why Trump has surprised almost every step of the way.  It's how Obama completely blindsided Hillary in 2008.

 
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Conservatives have tried to make inroads with black people. Independents have tried to make inroads with black people. 

It's just not happening. They remain attached to the Democratic party establishment. This anti-establishment attitude does not apply to black Americans. Maybe some of the younger ones who don't vote. But the older ones vote establishment. 

 
TripItUp said:
Voter turnout can Trump(pun intended) demographics from past elections.

This is what pretty much every pundit has missed and why they have been wrong time after time.  It's why Trump has surprised almost every step of the way.
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That was among Republicans. The general election is a whole different ball of wax. Why do you think the oddsmakers favor Hillary vs. Trump so heavily? Think they don't know what they're doing? 

 
timschochet said:
i wrote this months ago, but even though I'm happy Hillary is winning tonight, this is a monstrosity in the South that conservative white people created. Basically starting in 1968 (Nixon's southern strategy) they abandoned the Democratic party to African-Americans. Now as a result of that desertion, who gets to decide who the Democratic nominee will be? Black people, in the minority, in states which will mostly be red in the general election! It's absurd, as a far from "democratic" as could be imagined, and yet here we are. 
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Maybe those states should only get 3/5ths as many delegates?

 
timschochet said:
That was among Republicans. The general election is a whole different ball of wax. Why do you think the oddsmakers favor Hillary vs. Trump so heavily? Think they don't know what they're doing? 
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I can't speak to that until I see where the money is coming in on each side.  Not sure if the books want action on Hillary or Donald, or where the action is coming from.

I do know that 1 year ago, Trump's odds were significantly lower and Hillary's were just as high, if not higher.  The gap between the two has significantly narrowed, and in politics momentum can't be underestimated.

 
I think it's safe to say, after looking at the types of views held by those who voted for Trump and the blind support Hillary garnered, that South Carolinians are as dumb as rocks. What a waste of a state.

 
Bernie has energized lots of young educated people including my youngest daughter. No way she votes for Trump. But she will vote in November. If Bernie's enthusiasm leads to greater voter turnout among young educated people in November, Trump has no chance at all.   

 
Oh my God this is intolerable.  Hillary's race baiting is unbelievable.  Talking about black people killed by whites now?  Got news for you Hillary - there is way more black on white crime than the other way around.

 
Higgs said:
Oh, Hillary is going to bring us all together.  :lmao:
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You would not appreciate people being disrespectful of Trump in your safe walls thread, would you? But, of course, there is no hypocrisy in you coming into this thread to ridicule Hillary is there?

 
Bottomfeeder Sports said:
Take pleasure accurately pointing to today and Tuesday as the key indicator of this race way back in early August.  Worst yet I take no pleasure in calling Trump exactly the kind of candidate that does well in Republican presidential politics at about the same time.   I take no pleasure in being more or less correct that there is nothing really unique about this election cycle.  I really hoped I was just a doubter and that there wasn't a ceiling for liberalism.  I so badly wanted to be wrong.  Doesn't look good right now!
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That's quite the left turn from the discussion you were having :mellow:

I'll be honest.  After last weekend and Trump's victory the air seemed to be completely sucked out of this area.  A huge sigh of apathy seemed to spread across the area.  I hung around talking to a buddy of mine working our voting area and I knew this was going to happen when I saw who was actually showing up.  It was an incredibly small number of people and if not older, they were black.  Thus my comment from earlier.  2/3+ of the voters here were black where there was really low turnout.  The writing was on the wall unfortunately.  That's how this state rolls.  Sucks.

 
Higgs said:
is this a declared safe place now?
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No, just pointing out how you and the other Trump supporters are complete hypocrites.  You can't handle someone criticizing the Donald in your safe thread but you love trashing other candidates in their supporters threads.

You can dish it out, but you can't take it.

And liberals are supposed to be the wusses.

 
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The Senate majority leader has okay'd negative ads against the presumptive nominee by Republican Senators up for re-election. If that's the kind of enthusiasm Republicans are hoping for, they're going to have a bad time.

 
Higgs said:
Oh my God this is intolerable.  Hillary's race baiting is unbelievable.  Talking about black people killed by whites now?  Got news for you Hillary - there is way more black on white crime than the other way around.
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That speech was nothing short of an ### kicking so we understand your hurt.

 
Rirruto said:
The Senate majority leader has okay'd negative ads against the presumptive nominee by Republican Senators up for re-election. If that's the kind of enthusiasm Republicans are hoping for, they're going to have a bad time.
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Don't confuse what the Republican establishment is talking about with the movement that is going on in the country.

 
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