Sammy3469
Footballguy
Clinton +6 in a 4-way race and +7 with just the 2 of them in both RV/LV. Best poll for her awhile. More importantly she gained a point from a month ago.
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Official Hillary Clinton 2016 thread (1 Viewer)
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cstu
Footballguy
Politician Spock
Footballguy
I'm in Florida this week, just north of Daytona Beach.TobiasFunke said:
It looks like a Trump blimp exploded over the city and Trump debris feel on everyone's lawn.
cstu
Footballguy
Politician Spock
Footballguy
whitem0nkey
Footballguy
cstu
Footballguy
In the past 20 years Democrats have won 3 of the last 5. In 2000 they lost Florida by ~500 votes.
Due to changing demographics more recent results are a better indicator than over 30+ years ago.
My point though is that Florida voted for a guy damn near the opposite of Trump in the past two elections so it would be strange to see Trump win.
MaxThreshold
Footballguy
Why do you say this?bagger said:
A conservative leader wrote The Gateway Pundit Wednesday morning to share this news:
Hearing smart guys say that Hillary may cancel the debate on Monday … Hillary may be trying to run out the clock because she thinks she is ahead.
I am assuming this is just GOP-fueled nonsense. There is no chance she can afford to cancel a debate.
Hearing smart guys say that Hillary may cancel the debate on Monday … Hillary may be trying to run out the clock because she thinks she is ahead.
I am assuming this is just GOP-fueled nonsense. There is no chance she can afford to cancel a debate.
Bruce Dickinson
Footballguy
The person he was addressing has a history of making racist remarks. He was making the assumption that the user's negative opinion of Obama was at least partially motivated by his skin color.
cstu
Footballguy
Parrothead
Footballguy
bagger
Footballguy
Because that's the only explanation for the overwhelming vitriol that comes from the right.
Zegras11
Footballguy
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
This whole question and response are awful across the board.cstu said:
I agree with her point but it's a non-sequiter to the question, which was a dumb question.
Riversco
Footballguy
For Trump to win, he must SWEEP: FL, OH, NC, NVTobiasFunke said:
Then he must capture a state has yet to poll in Trump's favor this entire election: CO, VA, PA, NH, MI, or WI
Trump has never had an aggregate lead in ANY of those 6 states....and he MUST win one. Oh, and then he must sweep those other 4 on top of that. If he somehow pushes VA into his column but loses FL, it doesn't matter.
Trump has no shot.
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Riversco
Footballguy
To break it down further to show how bad Trump's position is:
Wisconsin: Currently tracking as +3.5 Hillary. Trump has NEVER led in a single poll this entire cycle in the state.
Michigan: Currently tracking as +5.2 Hillary. Trump has NEVER led in a single poll this entire cycle in the state.
Pennsylvania: Currently tracking as +6.2 Hillary. Trump has NEVER led in a single poll in this entire cycle in the state.
Virginia: Currently tracking as +5.2 Hillary. Trump has NEVER led in a single poll in this entire cycle in the state.
New Hampshire: +5.4 Hillary. Trump has NEVER led a single poll here either.
Colorado: Currently +3.0 Hillary. Trump has led in the most recent poll, +4 Trump in the Emerson poll. Emerson gets a B grade from 538, grading out as a +1.3 GOP slant.
So if the Colorado turn is real (very skeptical there), and Trump wins FL, OH, NC and NV, Trump wins 274-264.
Wisconsin: Currently tracking as +3.5 Hillary. Trump has NEVER led in a single poll this entire cycle in the state.
Michigan: Currently tracking as +5.2 Hillary. Trump has NEVER led in a single poll this entire cycle in the state.
Pennsylvania: Currently tracking as +6.2 Hillary. Trump has NEVER led in a single poll in this entire cycle in the state.
Virginia: Currently tracking as +5.2 Hillary. Trump has NEVER led in a single poll in this entire cycle in the state.
New Hampshire: +5.4 Hillary. Trump has NEVER led a single poll here either.
Colorado: Currently +3.0 Hillary. Trump has led in the most recent poll, +4 Trump in the Emerson poll. Emerson gets a B grade from 538, grading out as a +1.3 GOP slant.
So if the Colorado turn is real (very skeptical there), and Trump wins FL, OH, NC and NV, Trump wins 274-264.
tommyboy
Footballguy
Nate silver says he has a 42% shot http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo
Mister CIA
Footballguy
HellToupee
Footballguy
cstu
Footballguy
That's pretty scary. He's favored in those other states and only has to turn one that he's not favored (most recent poll had him 4% ahead).
MaxThreshold
Footballguy
Okay, so we got another standard "you're racist" when it doesn't agree with the liberal hive. You got anything else? Like something resembling a logical thought or argument? Or is calling other's racist the only thing in your tool box?
Bruce Dickinson
Footballguy
Maybe you could link to a few examples of you using logical thoughts and arguments. Then you could show him what you're taking about a little bit better.
Okay, so we got another standard "you're racist" when it doesn't agree with the liberal hive. You got anything else? Like something resembling a logical thought or argument? Or is calling other's racist the only thing in your tool box?
Riversco
Footballguy
Nate Silver is doing something else there. That's his NowCast, where he simply looks at the race in the moment. Realistically, you must expect Hillary to have some good weeks and those good weeks will give her a very strong lead. For Trump to win, Hillary really cannot have any good weeks from here to the election. Anything strongly positive for her will wreck Trump's polling numbers.
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
Someone Isn't Telling the Truth About Sidney Blumenthal and the Clinton Campaign
- This is a definitive summary of Blumenthal's history of working for the Clintons dating back to his time when he was a writer for the New Yorker (1994) while secretly working for the Clintons on the side. Yes it's a conservative magazine but the piece is very well documented.
- This is a definitive summary of Blumenthal's history of working for the Clintons dating back to his time when he was a writer for the New Yorker (1994) while secretly working for the Clintons on the side. Yes it's a conservative magazine but the piece is very well documented.
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Encyclopedia Brown
Footballguy
The Gateway Pundit is the guy who took a photograph from a medical textbook of someone with a broken eye socket and passed it off as Darren Wilson's doctor's exam.
Rove!
Footballguy
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Rove!
Footballguy
I saw the Washington Post pushing this story. It's probably the Clintons and blumenthal trying to lower the bar and hawking this angle so she gets some sort of boost for showing up...
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
A good week? The debates start on Monday, it's all downhill for her from here on out. Where is she going to catch a break? Her TV ads are very uninspiring.
-Cities erupting in violence, not sure which candidate that favors honestly.
-ISIS News always helps Trump
-People of non white skin color protesting and saying the police are evil, works a little in favor of Trump.
What is going to gain her traction right now? Her ideas about taxing and taking more money from working class/middle class folks? That ought to rally everyone.
I like Rivers this weekend, he should light it up in Indy. I love how they just grab anyone and plug them in at WR, guy could make Freddie Mitchell look like a front line starter.
G
Guest
Guest
I think it's fair to call Trump one. And while I tend not to support rioters and mobs, his campaigning style hasn't helped with the racial sentiment bubbling up.
TobiasFunke
Footballguy
The state polls from Fox dulled this a bit, but there's some good state polls out this morning too:Sammy3469 said:
NC- tied in four-way race, Clinton by 2 head to head
VA- Clinton by 7 in four-way race, Clinton by 11 head to head
WI- Clinton by 7 in four way race (but only 6 in Illinois)
CO-Clinton by 7 in four way race
I'm cautiously optimistic that the race is settling back into the steady 3-4 point national lead Clinton had before the deplorables remark and the pneumonia. Long way to go, though. Most of the polling info says third party candidates are pulling more support from Clinton than from Trump, particularly young people. I think Clinton might want to think about turning left again down the stretch. Moderates who are voting for her are doing it because they are smart enough to understand just how awful and dangerous Trump is, not because they like her. I think they've gotten comfortable with that at this point, so time to rally the under 35 crowd, especially the weird ones who supported Sanders and are now supporting his exact ideological opposite in Johnson. Remind them of how much Sanders and Clinton have in common across the board.
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
I'm sort of an institutionalist, maybe that's a conservative concept but then if so then I think a lot of Democrats are conservative in that respect and so is our democracy. I likely agree with the idea that the Clintons are essential Scoop Jackson, interventionists, and I think the record of them on Iraq is strong.
However what I can never agree with is the blow it up mentality that draws people to Trump. Fine yes oppose the Clintons and call them out for what they are but IMO a Trump in fact makes war more likely. A lot if it has to do with his complete inability to communicate clearly, which may in fact be purposeful, but I also think he is not honest or transparent in his intentions, and he's also fairly ignorant on a lot of foreign/international affairs specifics, which I think is relevant when he would be advised by people who are very knowledgeable but have an agenda.
As for RFK/JFK a very telling moment in that regard was the Cuban misdile crisis when JFK was told variously by truly knowledgeable military experts to preemptively attack the USSR, and in fact at one point the US fired depth charges at a Soviet sub in the Gulf/Caribbean. But it's also instructive because JFK was so inexperienced he put missiles on the Soviet border in the first place. I see Trump as having the same sort of inexperience which could lead to a similar mistake but not the judgement or self reflection to know he made one. Not to mention he would not have a Bobby to act as a reliable emissary. Who would Don rely on, Ivanka? Don Jr.?
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TobiasFunke
Footballguy
More pro-Clinton stuff as requested by the FFA:
Clinton makes an unusual push: to win over disabled people and their families
I'm sure cynics will dismiss it as political opportunism in the wake of Trump's nonsense, but she could have simply had her PAC run devastating ads like this and chalked up a win in that demographic. But she's doing much more than that, she's reaching out to the community and involving them in her campaign and in crafting her policy proposals.
Clinton makes an unusual push: to win over disabled people and their families
I'm sure cynics will dismiss it as political opportunism in the wake of Trump's nonsense, but she could have simply had her PAC run devastating ads like this and chalked up a win in that demographic. But she's doing much more than that, she's reaching out to the community and involving them in her campaign and in crafting her policy proposals.
If you're not willing to give her credit for this, I think maybe you're just not willing to give her credit.
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ArbyMelt
Footballguy
That NBC poll that had Clinton up 6, has Clinton and Trump tied nationally with Independents (24-24, with 31 (!!) going to Gary Johnson).
The battleground state polls (NV, OH, NC) that came out yesterday has Trump up ~20 points with independents.
Something doesn't jive there.
The battleground state polls (NV, OH, NC) that came out yesterday has Trump up ~20 points with independents.
Something doesn't jive there.
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
It is admirable. But I don't think there's a policy or initiative Hillary doesn't already win on. Even without this a Clinton presidency would likely be better for disabled people and other people in need. In general I have this outstanding question on the mystery of why homeless and disabled beggers have proliferated in my city recently despite all the extra spending but that's another question for another day.
One appalling story I remember about Trump was his going out of his way to try to get NYC to rescind a Civil War era law which allowed veterans to sell wares on Madison (or 5th) Avenue. As a practical matter these are/were typically the disabled trying to get by. He's a heartless ******* really.
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SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
I don't think anyone should be surprised by the Indy number. Hillary's great strength and Trump's great weakness will be in the party based GOTV. The neither/disgusted poll numbers of the middle have been high for a while.
TobiasFunke
Footballguy
It may just be a difference in how they define "independent," like for example one of them might ask people if they're registered as a member of the political party where the other might ask them if they align themselves with a political party or ideology, which would change the number and makeup of the independent subgroup. I tried to dig for a minute or two but I didn't see any detailed stuff like that in either poll (I couldn't even find the independent data in the NBC/WSJ one).
Anyway it's probably best to disregard that stuff. Even a single poll isn't that useful, so subcategories of voters within a single poll are even less useful. Methodologies vary, sample size is tiny, etc.
Cliff Clavin
Footballguy
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TobiasFunke
Footballguy
I agree, but several posters specifically requested information on why people should vote for Clinton rather than merely why they shouldn't vote for Trump, so I am trying to provide that.
honky kong
Footballguy
This article was from July of this year so I have no idea if it was already posted in this thread, but it looks at the public perception of Clinton compared to how her friends, subordinates and even her political enemies view her. Good stuff:
The Gap
I thought this part was noteworthy:
It wasn’t just Lott. In 2006, the Times tallied up Clinton’s unusual alliances:
“With Representative Tom DeLay it was foster children. Newt Gingrich, the former speaker of the House, jumped in with her on a health care initiative, and the Senate majority leader, Bill Frist, was a partner on legislation concerning computerized medical records. The list goes on: Senator Robert Bennett on flag-burning; Senator Rick Santorum on children's exposure to graphic images; Senator John Sununu on S.U.V. taillights; Senator Mike DeWine on asthma.”
This wasn’t an accident, and it definitely wasn’t an inevitability. “When she hired me, she said, ‘There is nobody I won’t work with,’” recalls a former Clinton staffer. “I didn’t believe it. So many of the people in the Senate had voted to impeach her husband. But it was true. There was no one she wouldn’t work with.”
The Gap
I thought this part was noteworthy:
It wasn’t just Lott. In 2006, the Times tallied up Clinton’s unusual alliances:
“With Representative Tom DeLay it was foster children. Newt Gingrich, the former speaker of the House, jumped in with her on a health care initiative, and the Senate majority leader, Bill Frist, was a partner on legislation concerning computerized medical records. The list goes on: Senator Robert Bennett on flag-burning; Senator Rick Santorum on children's exposure to graphic images; Senator John Sununu on S.U.V. taillights; Senator Mike DeWine on asthma.”
This wasn’t an accident, and it definitely wasn’t an inevitability. “When she hired me, she said, ‘There is nobody I won’t work with,’” recalls a former Clinton staffer. “I didn’t believe it. So many of the people in the Senate had voted to impeach her husband. But it was true. There was no one she wouldn’t work with.”
The Commish
Footballguy
The title's not flattering. However, I am certainly willing to give her the credit the timing and future actions warrant. Perhaps this is something we'll be able to add to her work with women and children....time will tell.
TobiasFunke
Footballguy
As far as timing goes, note that her outreach efforts go back to the beginning of the campaign, before Trump did that weird thing where he mocked the NY Times reporter.
Bruce Dickinson
Footballguy
I think it helps. For one, it shows the Hillary Clinton who those who are fans of her day-to-day work see all the time: going out and meeting with people directly, listening to their objections and concerns, and processing all that information to produce policy ideas. It's a way to show what it is hoped for a Clinton presidency to be like. It doesn't engage Trump in an exchange of insults and negativity. And it sends a message of inclusiveness that made Sanders so appealing to voters young enough to be his grandchildren.
At this point in the process, IMO voters leaning Trump are a lost cause to the Clinton campaign. If they don't see his obvious shortcomings by now, from his stubby little fingers to his total lack of intellectual curiosity, there isn't any new information that is going to change their minds. Go to a Trump rally this week and you will find people who still think Obama is a closeted Muslim and wasn't born in the United States. You think those people care that Trump used other people's charitable donations to settle lawsuits against his businesses?
The voters that can still be turned IMO are those who are leaning third-party because of dissatisfaction with the machine, and those who supported Sanders in the primaries but plan to stay home in November. Clinton demonstrating how her form of governance will be different from what Trump has told us should be appealing to both groups.
I'm sure that's a difficult question. I think you would prefer Clinton's answer to Trump's.
He's such a ####.
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
I agree with this. I think her campaign was working when she was talking Unity and Together, etc. The campaign jumped off the rails with the deplorables line. And look either she believes the electorate is positive and rational or she doesn't, but also leaders lead by showing direction. I've got some serious issues (don't laugh folks, please) with the Clintons' past history of triangulating and creating division and wedge issues but they have a chance to rewrite the history books with a good campaign here. Mostly they have done it IMO. Vs Trump it should be easy, she gets to be the Good Guy, so be that.
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