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Official Hillary Clinton 2016 thread (9 Viewers)

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I'm almost worried enough to go vote for the lesser of two evils...we'll see how she does.

Would be different if Stein or Johnson was impressing me...
I'm really happy to hear that. I've put in a lot of time trying to argue that the "evils" surrounding Clinton as not as bad as they've been made out to be and that she has many good qualities that for whatever reason are underappreciated. Happy to keep doing that if people want to hear it.

And on the other point- yeah, really weird how bad Johnson and Stein have come across. The only guy who's impressed me is Weld.  They should have flipped that ticket.

 
This is by no means the most original or thought provoking comment in the history of this forum, so bear with me here.  I think tonight Hillary has to appeal to the voters that are NOT sucked in by the anti-immigration/anti-muslim hate speech that she can never hope to win over.  She has to appeal to those that would otherwise be a Romney voter, and she's done nothing at all to appeal to them whatsoever.  Her entire campaign has been a mess and she can't get out of her own way.  

I think people are now turning to Donald because the thought of a GOP congress GOP POTUS appeals to them more than the resulting gridlock and they are just hoping he's not as bad as the TV portrays him.  

She needs to jump out like Romney did, lean centrist right tonight and take ownership of the economic discussion.  Get him flanked and make him offer specifics that sound left of her.  That's ALMOST how Romney stole some momentum, made Obama seem extremist by simply pivoting towards him,not away.  Was a great gamble, but he was unable to really see it thru mainly due to late game gaffes.  

 
She's looking at 43% and a slim electoral college margin compared to Obama. The only things she has going for her is that Trump may not crack 41%, and the state tallies fall slightly to her favor. Her campaign is missing opportunities to show why her policies are important and why she has a better position. Instead they're in beat Trump mode, when they need to be above it. Dumb. And no one likes her personally. They were on third with no one out from the start.

 
She's looking at 43% and a slim electoral college margin compared to Obama. The only things she has going for her is that Trump may not crack 41%, and the state tallies fall slightly to her favor. Her campaign is missing opportunities to show why her policies are important and why she has a better position. Instead they're in beat Trump mode, when they need to be above it. Dumb. And no one likes her personally. They were on third with no one out from the start.
Hillary.

 
Maybe, but I think you are reading too much into that message, and why it resonates.  Bernie had a similar message along the lines of economic prosperity, but he never connected with minorities.  Nothing racist about that message.  It just does not resonate - perhaps trust issues - with minorities.
MAGA implies that America is not great right now (is it still good, Trump hasn't clarified?).  Trump says our biggest problems are illegal immigrants and Muslims.  Therefore, the reason America is not great is because of illegals and Muslims.  But I'm not supposed to think his message is racist?

 
There is a very ugly "other" fear that he is preying on and feeding in people that is as toxic as anything in national politics since George Wallace. Anybody seeing things in his mostly imaginery platform that are more significant than that are either stupid, racist, or insane. And that is just the tip of the iceberg of why he is dangerous.
And yet the Dems for 50 yrs have been telling us the Republican nominee is racist, evil Hitler.

 
Maybe, but I think you are reading too much into that message, and why it resonates.  Bernie had a similar message along the lines of economic prosperity, but he never connected with minorities.  Nothing racist about that message.  It just does not resonate - perhaps trust issues - with minorities.
"Trust issues" kind of oversimplifies it.  Trump has used minorities as a scapegoat for problems and a boogeyman for the white suburban voters he's trying to ride to the presidency. Those people can see that. They're not stupid, and even if they were it's pretty hard to miss.

And even if Trump himself isn't talking about your racial/ethnic/religious when you grow up as an "other" you learn two things: (1) stand up for other minorities, because if you don't you'll be next; and (2) when evildoers come, the evil doesn't come out all at once. First something eyebrow-raising is normalized, then something that is concerning is raised and eventually normalized, and so on. The old frog in the pot of boiling water analogy. 

In my experience minorities learn these principles almost from birth. This is why I expect that Jews and Asians will vote Clinton in much bigger numbers than usual. And of course the black and Latino and Muslim vote will be there too. The proof will be in the pudding. The only question is whether enough white Christian people are willing to stand with us.

 
"Trust issues" kind of oversimplifies it.  Trump has used minorities as a scapegoat for problems and a boogeyman for the white suburban voters he's trying to ride to the presidency. Those people can see that. They're not stupid, and even if they were it's pretty hard to miss.

And even if Trump himself isn't talking about your racial/ethnic/religious when you grow up as an "other" you learn two things: (1) stand up for other minorities, because if you don't you'll be next; and (2) when evildoers come, the evil doesn't come out all at once. First something eyebrow-raising is normalized, then something that is concerning is raised and eventually normalized, and so on. The old frog in the pot of boiling water analogy. 

In my experience minorities learn these principles almost from birth. This is why I expect that Jews and Asians will vote Clinton in much bigger numbers than usual. And of course the black and Latino and Muslim vote will be there too. The proof will be in the pudding. The only question is whether enough white Christian people are willing to stand with us.


We will see.  I think the last polling numbers I saw this weekend showed that Clinton is faring worse among both african americans and hispancs than Obama v. Romney.  I'll see if I can find the link.

 
Sinn Fein said:
We will see.  I think the last polling numbers I saw this weekend showed that Clinton is faring worse among both african americans and hispancs than Obama v. Romney.  I'll see if I can find the link.
My cleaning lady is Hispanic and was astounded to hear that any Hispanics were voting for Trump, let alone the roughly 25% that polls indicate.  This is like black people voting for George Wallace.

 
This is not the article I saw - but it illustrates the hispanic difference:

Univision Poll

Barely 56 days before the presidential election, Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump by a wide margin among likely Hispanic voters in four battleground states where the Latino vote may prove to be decisive, according to an exclusive bipartisan survey conducted for Univision Noticias. The Democratic candidate leads her Republican opponent by a margin of three-to-one in three of these states and almost two-to-one in the fourth. If the elections were to take place today, Clinton would win among Hispanic voters by 68% to 18% in Arizona, 62% to 17% in Colorado, 65% to 19% in Nevada, and 53% to 29% in Florida, according to the poll conducted by the Democratic public opinion firm Bendixen & Amandi in conjunction with the Republican firm The Tarrance Group.

However, what may appear to be great news for the Democratic candidate may not be so good after all: While three of every four Hispanic voters in the four states surveyed are unlikely to change their minds between now and November, Clinton’s level of support among Hispanics lags behind the backing they gave Barack Obama in the same battleground states in 2012. This may indicate that Clinton has not campaigned as intensely or effectively among Hispanic communities in Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, and Florida as Obama did four years ago. At least some Latino votes could go to alternative candidates, Gary Johnson, of the Libertarian Party, and Jill Stein, of the Green Party. They jointly get 10% of Hispanic voters’ support in the poll.

 
By the way while watching the debate, remember these two know each other, they have been friendly in the past (to the point the Clintons were in the front row for Trump's wedding), they have socialized on good terms, right up even until the eve of Trump calling Bill Clinton before entering the race.

That's a fairly unusual rubric versus any past publicized debate we have seen. 

 
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My cleaning lady is Hispanic and was astounded to hear that any Hispanics were voting for Trump, let alone the roughly 25% that polls indicate.  This is like black people voting for George Wallace.
With such keen insight, I am surprised people waste time and money with polls when they can simply ask your cleaning lady how hispanics will be voting.

 
Abraham said:
That wouldn't shock me but I think it will result in lower turnout than those voters going to trump. 
Yeah - I think turnout is going to interesting to watch this election.  Who stays home may well have as big an impact as the actual voters.

 
By the way while watching the debate, remember these two know each other, they have been friendly in the past (to the point the Clintons were in the front row for Trump's wedding), they have socialized on good terms, right up even until the eve of Trump calling Bill Clinton before entering the race.

That's a fairly unusual rubric versus any past publicized debate we have seen. 
To be honest, I don't think either one does anything, unless they are getting something in return.  So any socializing was more likely to be for some mutual benefit, than it was actual friendship or admiration.

 
This is not the article I saw - but it illustrates the hispanic difference:

Univision Poll

Barely 56 days before the presidential election, Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump by a wide margin among likely Hispanic voters in four battleground states where the Latino vote may prove to be decisive, according to an exclusive bipartisan survey conducted for Univision Noticias. The Democratic candidate leads her Republican opponent by a margin of three-to-one in three of these states and almost two-to-one in the fourth. If the elections were to take place today, Clinton would win among Hispanic voters by 68% to 18% in Arizona, 62% to 17% in Colorado, 65% to 19% in Nevada, and 53% to 29% in Florida, according to the poll conducted by the Democratic public opinion firm Bendixen & Amandi in conjunction with the Republican firm The Tarrance Group.

However, what may appear to be great news for the Democratic candidate may not be so good after all: While three of every four Hispanic voters in the four states surveyed are unlikely to change their minds between now and November, Clinton’s level of support among Hispanics lags behind the backing they gave Barack Obama in the same battleground states in 2012. This may indicate that Clinton has not campaigned as intensely or effectively among Hispanic communities in Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, and Florida as Obama did four years ago. At least some Latino votes could go to alternative candidates, Gary Johnson, of the Libertarian Party, and Jill Stein, of the Green Party. They jointly get 10% of Hispanic voters’ support in the poll.
Perhaps.  I'd seen numbers the other way on this, too, especially with African-American voters, which was particularly shocking considering that Obama was, you know, a black guy.

The Hispanic thing is interesting- no minority group is monolithic of course, but the people we put under that umbrella have even less in common with each other than most other groups. I wonder if Clinton is struggling to win over non-Mexican Hispanic groups; Mexicans have an obvious reason to oppose Trump, but others may not. Maybe some Catholic outreach would help (or if she wants to go negative reminding people that Trump picked a fight with the pope).

 
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To be honest, I don't think either one does anything, unless they are getting something in return.  So any socializing was more likely to be for some mutual benefit, than it was actual friendship or admiration.
True, but my point is whatever the motive they have spent some time together and they know each other, though perhaps Trump has spent more time with Bill than Hillary. This isn't like the old World Series where the two teams come in never having had any experience with the other. 

 
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To be honest, I don't think either one does anything, unless they are getting something in return.  So any socializing was more likely to be for some mutual benefit, than it was actual friendship or admiration.
Agreed.  Like when Hillary went to that funeral in 30 years ago, with no press and didn't speak or seek attention, she knew that 30 years from then someone from that funeral would be a message board commentator and leave a comment on an online news section.  

 
tommyboy said:
And yet the Dems for 50 yrs have been telling us the Republican nominee is racist, evil Hitler.
And now we have both democrats and republicans telling us the Republican nominee is racist

 
With such keen insight, I am surprised people waste time and money with polls when they can simply ask your cleaning lady how hispanics will be voting.
So a poll that asks "Are you Hispanic?" over the phone is more accurate than a woman I've known for years who says she doesn't know any other Hispanic who has espoused support for Trump?

 
People Hillary has debated:

Lazio

John Spencer

Obama

Edwards

Sanders

People Trump has debated:

Rubio

Jeb Bush

Cruz

Kasich

Christie

Rand Paul

A buncha lesser schmoes.

Worth noting: Trump has never debated a Democrat.

 
TobiasFunke said:
Terrible polls yesterday and today. I'm becoming increasingly convinced that if Trump doesn't have an epic bad performance in one of the three debates he's going to win this thing. See, the thing about being taken by a scam is that once you've been had you generally do everything you can to avoid acknowledging that. I think this is why he's generally added support through the entire process- nobody leaves his camp once they're leaning his way, because to do so is to admit you've been had.

Anyway, in the continuing effort to convince any voters wary of Clinton that she's a good person and would make a good president, here's a comment that appeared under the NY Times endorsement.  There are many, many stories like this one. Here, in case you missed it or need a reminder, is that Facebook post from the cancer survivor.

She's not perfect, but she's a good person and she deserves your vote.  I'm taking a break from most of this crap for a while, it's stressing me out, but if anyone has real questions about her and wants to know more about why I think she'd be a good president, I'm happy to answer.

If you haven't read it yet, you should read this column by the legendary Roger Angell, who call this the most important election of his 96 years, including one cast while he was fighting WWII: My Vote.  Most of it is about the unique threat of a Trump presidency, which he calls "a danger unmatched in our history since the Cuban missile crisis, in 1962, or perhaps since 1943, when the Axis powers held most of Continental Europe, and Imperial Japan controlled the Pacific Rim, from the Aleutians to the Solomon Islands, with the outcome of that war still unknown."

But he also voices his opinion on Clinton:

:thumbup:


 
Maybe I'm too cynical, but it wouldn't surprise me in the least that the polls being published are intentionally pro Trump to drive people to Fox, CNN, etc to watch more commercials.  I bet if ESPN conducted a poll it would hugely favor Hillary.

 
Sinn Fein said:
To be honest, I could not remember if "again" was part of it, and was too lazy to go look it up.

But, you are missing the bigger point - why are people attracted to that notion?  It is a more crass version of what Bernie was talking about - in terms of the economic recovery/prosperity misses a large swath of the population.  
What I find interesting is that Hillary discusses economic recovery all the time.  Absolutely all the time, with actual policy ideas.  But while she speaks about economic recovery on every campaign stop, people never actually hear about it.  There was a post a month or two ago in here where a Trump supporter trashed Hillary for never discussing economic recovery/blue collar jobs.  I went back and pulled news articles from her campaign stops for the past week-or-two and the substance of every one was a discussion of economic recovery and how to bring back blue collar jobs.

I don't know if it's blind fandom of Trump supporters, hatred/mistrust of Hillary, or what, but it's fascinating.  Trump supporters, by and large, seem to be supporters under the guise of bringing back blue collar jobs.  But only one candidate is actually talking about that same policy position in any substantive terms, and her support continues to tank among that demographic.  Are people not listening?  Do they not care?  Is it because Fox News and other conservative outlets have drilled people to hate Hillary for the past decade?  Is it because she doesn't have the strong-sounding soundbites (the authoritarian model)?   It's very interesting to me.

 
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Will the young people get their heads out of their asses and vote for Hillary instead of the stupid 3rd party candidates?  If not, then I think Trump wins.

 
What I find interesting is that Hillary discusses economic recovery all the time.  Absolutely all the time, with actual policy positions.  But while she speaks about economic recovery on every campaign stop, people never actually hear about it.  There was a post a month or two ago in here where a Trump supporter trashed Hillary for never discussing economic recovery/blue collar jobs.  I went back and pulled news articles from her campaign stops for the past week-or-two and the substance of every one was a discussion of economic recovery and how to bring back blue collar jobs.

I don't know if it's blind fandom of Trump supporters, hatred/mistrust of Hillary, or what, but it's fascinating.  Trump supporters, by and large, seem to be supporters under the guise of bringing back blue collar jobs.  But only one candidate is actually talking about that same policy position in any substantive terms, and her support continues to tank among that demographic.  Are people not listening?  Do they not care?  Is it because Fox News and other conservative outlets have drilled people to hate Hillary for the past decade?  Is it because she doesn't have the strong-sounding soundbites (the authoritarian model)?   It's very interesting to me.
:goodposting:

I think that is a great observation - and I don't know why her message never seems to get out.  Its in the news, so its not that the media are not covering it - but it really seems like nobody is paying attention.*  Now, part of winning elections is "appearance"  and Trump "appears" to be out stumping for the middle class.  

*I have an untested theory that most of the media coverage of substantive issues falls on deaf ears because only a select few are actually reading op-eds or in-depth articles, or giving any weight to news paper endorsements.  Most people live in a "sound-bite" world, and Clinton has very few good sound-bites.  This is where I think that maybe she does need to come out swinging at Trump tonight.  I think a lot of people who support Trump perceive him as a "tough guy" alpha-dog leader.  Whether or not its true, has little bearing to the perception of his persona built up over the years.  To erode that support, Clinton needs to hack him at the knees so he does not appear so tough.  Kind of embarrass the bully - and you don't generally embarrass the bully by showing how smart you are.  The danger is that she is ineffective, and she enhances Trump's reputation.

 
Bad news.  Hillary down to 51% on 538.  Dreadful decline these past few weeks, basically handing this to that #######.  God I hate her.  She's actually going to lose this thing.  

 
What I find interesting is that Hillary discusses economic recovery all the time.  Absolutely all the time, with actual policy ideas.  But while she speaks about economic recovery on every campaign stop, people never actually hear about it.  There was a post a month or two ago in here where a Trump supporter trashed Hillary for never discussing economic recovery/blue collar jobs.  I went back and pulled news articles from her campaign stops for the past week-or-two and the substance of every one was a discussion of economic recovery and how to bring back blue collar jobs.

I don't know if it's blind fandom of Trump supporters, hatred/mistrust of Hillary, or what, but it's fascinating.  Trump supporters, by and large, seem to be supporters under the guise of bringing back blue collar jobs.  But only one candidate is actually talking about that same policy position in any substantive terms, and her support continues to tank among that demographic.  Are people not listening?  Do they not care?  Is it because Fox News and other conservative outlets have drilled people to hate Hillary for the past decade?  Is it because she doesn't have the strong-sounding soundbites (the authoritarian model)?   It's very interesting to me.
I suspect they don't believe what she's saying (or don't believe she'll actually do any of what she's saying)

 
SaintsInDome2006 said:
You may be right.

This is one danger I see in Trump. The kind of internecine cycle of racial and ethnic violence that we have largely (mostly) been free of for much of our history. And I think also political violence, from left and right. Once that stuff starts no one knows who started it and it is almost impossible to stamp out.
I can see that happening as we head into October...

sad

 
Nate Silver@NateSilver538 4h4 hours ago

Historically: —The non-incumbent party's candidate gains from 1st debate. —But they don't hold onto these gains.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-may-have-more-to-gain-from-the-first-debate-than-clinton/

Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are about to face off in one of the most anticipated debates in American political history. Clinton generally got good reviews as a debater in her two runs for the presidency. Trump’s debate performances during the Republican primaries were … unconventional. I won’t try and predict who is going to “win” tonight’s debate. But if history is any guide (and it may not be in this crazy election year), Trump has more to gain from the first debate than Clinton, though we shouldn’t expect a major change in the polls.
 
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What I find interesting is that Hillary discusses economic recovery all the time.  Absolutely all the time, with actual policy ideas.  But while she speaks about economic recovery on every campaign stop, people never actually hear about it.  There was a post a month or two ago in here where a Trump supporter trashed Hillary for never discussing economic recovery/blue collar jobs.  I went back and pulled news articles from her campaign stops for the past week-or-two and the substance of every one was a discussion of economic recovery and how to bring back blue collar jobs.

I don't know if it's blind fandom of Trump supporters, hatred/mistrust of Hillary, or what, but it's fascinating.  Trump supporters, by and large, seem to be supporters under the guise of bringing back blue collar jobs.  But only one candidate is actually talking about that same policy position in any substantive terms, and her support continues to tank among that demographic.  Are people not listening?  Do they not care?  Is it because Fox News and other conservative outlets have drilled people to hate Hillary for the past decade?  Is it because she doesn't have the strong-sounding soundbites (the authoritarian model)?   It's very interesting to me.
Agreed, they aren't listening and don't care what Hillary is saying, she is not getting their vote, even if it is in their best interest. 

 
Bad news.  Hillary down to 51% on 538.  Dreadful decline these past few weeks, basically handing this to that #######.  God I hate her.  She's actually going to lose this thing.  
No offense but this post strikes me as a defense mechanism if loses. I get that it's tempting to distance yourself from this potential disaster, but you have a vote and a voice.  If Trump wins that means Clinton failed, but it also means we all failed.  It's not like she ran out onto the 50 yard line during an Ohio State game and pooped in the O.  She hasn't done anything egregious in the last week or two. Trump is making up ground because more and more people are coming under the spell of his scapegoating, sound bites and easy answers. We have to continue to expose that, and show people there's a better way :thumbup:

 
:goodposting:

I think that is a great observation - and I don't know why her message never seems to get out.  Its in the news, so its not that the media are not covering it - but it really seems like nobody is paying attention.*  Now, part of winning elections is "appearance"  and Trump "appears" to be out stumping for the middle class.  

*I have an untested theory that most of the media coverage of substantive issues falls on deaf ears because only a select few are actually reading op-eds or in-depth articles, or giving any weight to news paper endorsements.  Most people live in a "sound-bite" world, and Clinton has very few good sound-bites.  This is where I think that maybe she does need to come out swinging at Trump tonight.  I think a lot of people who support Trump perceive him as a "tough guy" alpha-dog leader.  Whether or not its true, has little bearing to the perception of his persona built up over the years.  To erode that support, Clinton needs to hack him at the knees so he does not appear so tough.  Kind of embarrass the bully - and you don't generally embarrass the bully by showing how smart you are.  The danger is that she is ineffective, and she enhances Trump's reputation.
I agree with these points.  I think some of it comes back to the authoritarian article that Vox published awhile back.  People in America are scared - the country is changing, there is an increasing wealth gap, demographics are changing, the economy is changing.  A lot of Americans think the country is failing.  For many people, that pushes them towards wanting an authoritarian leader who isn't from the political establishment.  Couple that with the fact that a lot of people don't really care about policy positions, just tough talk, and you've got Trump in a nutshell.

Honestly, if Trump could his mouth shut on the thinly-veiled racist and misogynist bull####, he could be running away with this thing.  I don't think he'll be a particularly good president and I certainly won't vote for him, but a lot of Americans don't feel like I do.

 
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Nate Silver@NateSilver538 4h4 hours ago

Historically: —The non-incumbent party's candidate gains from 1st debate. —But they don't hold onto these gains.
Here's more recent Nate Silver:

The Hill

September 26, 2016, 11:11 am


FiveThirtyEight: Trump would win if election were held today


Donald Trump would beat Hillary Clinton if votes for president were cast today, according to the election results predictor designed by top pollster Nate Silver.

FiveThirtyEight’s “now-cast” model is giving Trump a nearly 10-point edge over Clinton in response to the question, “Who would win the presidency today?”

Silver previously gave the Republican presidential nominee a sizable advantage over his Democratic rival in late July, following the Republican National Convention.

Today’s prediction comes just hours before the crucial first presidential debate.

Clinton, the Democratic nominee, still holds the lead in FiveThirtyEight’s two other predictive models: polls-plus forecast and polls-only forecast.

In both models she leads by a narrow margin of 3.6 percentage points.

 
No offense but this post strikes me as a defense mechanism if loses. I get that it's tempting to distance yourself from this potential disaster, but you have a vote and a voice.  If Trump wins that means Clinton failed, but it also means we all failed.  It's not like she ran out onto the 50 yard line during an Ohio State game and pooped in the O.  She hasn't done anything egregious in the last week or two. Trump is making up ground because more and more people are coming under the spell of his scapegoating, sound bites and easy answers. We have to continue to expose that, and show people there's a better way :thumbup:
We've been told that Hillary and Donald are our choices.  What is this better way that you speak of?  Sorry....couldn't resist the beach ball you lofted there GB :D  

 
Has he ever actually debated?  Arguing <> debating
No, he never debated one-on-one.

That's why if she can't blow him out of the water in this debate on knowledge and policy then she won't win.  Tonight is her in the bottom of the 9th with two outs.

 
I agree with these points.  I think some of it comes back to the authoritarian article that Vox published awhile back.  People in America are scared - the country is changing, there is an increasing wealth gap, demographics are changing, the economy is changing.  A lot of Americans think the country is failing.  For many people, that pushes them towards wanting an authoritarian leader who isn't from the political establishment.  Couple that with the fact that a lot of people don't really care about policy positions, just tough talk, and you've got Trump in a nutshell.

Honestly, if Trump could his mouth shut on the thinly-veiled racist and misogynist bull####, he could be running away with this thing.  I don't think he'll be a particularly good president and I certainly won't vote for him, but a lot of Americans don't feel like I do.
not just in the US either.   

the fact of the matter is the "elites" of both political parties in this country have got us to where we are here, now, today.   And they've failed, in some cases failed spectacularly. Its no wonder that some people have come to conclude the "elites" don't know what the #### they're talking about and would choose an outsider.

not that the outsider can/could do any better but Trump summed it up in his appeal to blacks "what do you have to lose?"

 
Will the young people get their heads out of their asses and vote for Hillary instead of the stupid 3rd party candidates?  If not, then I think Trump wins.
The survey shows Clinton trouncing Trump 56%-20% among those under 35, though she has failed so far to generate the levels of enthusiasm Sanders did — and the high turn-out that can signal — among Millennials.

Trump's weakness among younger voters is unprecedented, lower even than the 32% of the vote that the Gallup Organization calculates Richard Nixon received among 18-to-29-year-old voters in 1972, an era of youthful protests against the Vietnam War.

 
We've been told that Hillary and Donald are our choices.  What is this better way that you speak of?  Sorry....couldn't resist the beach ball you lofted there GB :D  
I'm trying to walk the walk, so I'm happy to try to convince you and anyone else that Clinton is not just the better choice of the two nominated candidates (duh) but a legitimately good choice, if you're open to listening.

 
Here's more recent Nate Silver:

The Hill

September 26, 2016, 11:11 am


FiveThirtyEight: Trump would win if election were held today


Donald Trump would beat Hillary Clinton if votes for president were cast today, according to the election results predictor designed by top pollster Nate Silver.

FiveThirtyEight’s “now-cast” model is giving Trump a nearly 10-point edge over Clinton in response to the question, “Who would win the presidency today?”

Silver previously gave the Republican presidential nominee a sizable advantage over his Democratic rival in late July, following the Republican National Convention.

Today’s prediction comes just hours before the crucial first presidential debate.

Clinton, the Democratic nominee, still holds the lead in FiveThirtyEight’s two other predictive models: polls-plus forecast and polls-only forecast.

In both models she leads by a narrow margin of 3.6 percentage points.
Clever the way they phrased that. 

 
The survey shows Clinton trouncing Trump 56%-20% among those under 35, though she has failed so far to generate the levels of enthusiasm Sanders did — and the high turn-out that can signal — among Millennials.

Trump's weakness among younger voters is unprecedented, lower even than the 32% of the vote that the Gallup Organization calculates Richard Nixon received among 18-to-29-year-old voters in 1972, an era of youthful protests against the Vietnam War.
But it's those damn stubborn Bernie/Gary Johnson supporting millennials' fault if Hillary loses ;)

 
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