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Official Hillary Clinton 2016 thread (5 Viewers)

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timschochet said:
I still don't think the Comey letter has made any real difference at all, EXCEPT for the fact that it has taken Trump out of the spotlight, which helps him whenever that happens. I think you're correct and that she surges this weekend as people remember who it is they might be voting for. 
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I think taking the spotlight off Trump and putting it on Clinton is everything.  Even if people don't say it's changed anything, it clearly did.  She had started to pull way ahead of him on the likability polling and now they're back close to even.

The other possibility, I guess, is that one of the few people who is in a position to singlehandedly save us from Trump steps up and does so, for the good of the country, by making a clear statement opposing his candidacy. Ryan clearly won't do it.  W remains a possibility maybe, although that's a LOT to ask of someone of someone in his position. Others could make their statements more forcefully I guess. Rubio could probably deliver Florida and thus the election if he was so inclined, but his cowardice is fairly well established at this point.

 
Looking at Nate Silvers graph, there are two times when Hillary had the momentum; 1) after the conventions; and 2) after the first debate. One could also say the 2nd debate, but that just looks like the continuing momentum from the 1st debate. She lost all momentum by the 3rd debate.

Other than those two moments, momentum has always been trending towards Trump. He's never held the lead, but when looking at momentum, it's in Trumps favor except in the two instances above. 

I don't see anything in the next few days that could do what the convention and the debates did for Hillary. She isn't going to get the momentum back. All she can do is hope the clock runs out before her lead is gone. 

 
Boston said:
Good to see Barry had an alias when communicating with Hillary's closet (the President with an alias just seems creepy)...who knows, maybe he is on this board right now calling anyone who doesn't vote for Hillary an uneducated bigot...

http://townhall.com/tipsheet/katiepavlich/2016/11/03/more-proof-the-white-house-obama-lied-about-knowledge-of-clintons-private-email-server-n2241132
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What about the 20 million emails the Republicans put on their private servers run by the RNC about the Iraq and Afghanistan conflicts back during the Bush/Cheney era? You're worried about 30k emails when you'll allow 20 million to go unaccounted for with trillions of dollars and thousands of American lives lost? Interesting. 

 
On Tue, Mar 17, 2015 at 3:39 PM, Philippe Reines <pir@hrcoffice.com<mailto:pir@hrcoffice.com>> wrote:

There's a lot to respond to here, but first and foremost the premise is wrong. There is nothing wrong with anyone having personal email addresses or her emailing someone's private account or vice versa. Maybe she was wishing Jake a happy birthday. Or I was sending her a note about her mom. Or she asking Monica about Oscar disappearing. We're allowed to have personal lives.

Second, it was her practice, as well as ours, to conduct work on the .gov system. In those cases we didn't, which could have been for any reason, including State.gov<http://State.gov> being down. In those cases the onus is on us to make sure that anything that should have ended up in the right place did.

Now, depending on what they are looking at, you can't easily determine if that happened. They are looking at HER email, not ours. They don't know what next step we took.

The most important thing to ascertain from State is whether they are looking at specific email from the "300" - because in those cases Heather and I went one by one to determine if a) it needed to end up on .gov, and b) it did indeed end up there.

Since there are less than a dozen instances of this in the 300 it was easy. One is me sending her a clip, no commentary. Another is her emailing me & Huma about something that I subsequently followed up on my .gov account. We did that for each and could share that if need be.

If they've somehow seen some of the other 55k, we'd need to see each to determine what they were. Lastly, we should warn Monica. Huma, unless you want to Nick or I can.

 
Mario Kart said:
What about the 20 million emails the Republicans put on their private servers run by the RNC about the Iraq and Afghanistan conflicts back during the Bush/Cheney era? You're worried about 30k emails when you'll allow 20 million to go unaccounted for with trillions of dollars and thousands of American lives lost? Interesting. 
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Yes...I am worried...they should be held accountable as well...this type of stuff is unacceptable and should be beyond partisanship...no one should be above the law because they happen to share your political views...

 
TobiasFunke said:
Two polls today showing New Hampshire tied. A New Hampshire win opens up the possibility of the electoral college win despite the popular vote loss, something I've been worried about for a while now. I suspect that's what is feeding the dropping number more than anything.

I'm not sure about North Carolina- the NC GOP's openly racist efforts to stymie black voters there are a real problem.  And Florida looks like a coin toss. But I do agree with you about Nevada, and 538 does too.  They've been tracking the early vote stuff and have pointed out that their projection there is poll-based only, does not account for early voting numbers which have been excellent for Clinton.  If she wins Nevada that cancels out a potential New Hampshire loss.

Still would be nice to see Sanders pay a weekend visit to NH on her behalf, though.
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I have been playing around with different scenarios on the 538 and RCP with the interactive maps and using various different polls.  It seems all the over/under numbers I predicted might get destroyed if this keeps getting tighter.  The last time I moved states around I had the whole thing coming down to New Hampshire.  Which is just completely weird.

At least I will be drunk Tuesday night.  That will make this easier.

 
Yankee23Fan said:
I have been playing around with different scenarios on the 538 and RCP with the interactive maps and using various different polls.  It seems all the over/under numbers I predicted might get destroyed if this keeps getting tighter.  The last time I moved states around I had the whole thing coming down to New Hampshire.  Which is just completely weird.

At least I will be drunk Tuesday night.  That will make this easier.
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Yup.  Only way to cope. That night is gonna be awful, but I also really can't wait for it to be over. Contemplating the possibility of a Trump presidency might be worse than dealing with the day to day reality of it.  Hard to say, I guess, and those first few days of post-election boasting and insufferable thinkpieces will be awful. But after that I figure I'll just tell my daughters we live in a magical, wonderful, sane place where the sexual harasser/assaulter got less than 10% of the vote and blame the rest of you #######s for this mess.

 
And then just when things are looking kinda bleak for Clinton ...

New NBC/WSJ/Marist poll of Georgia:

Trump 45

Clinton 44

Johnson 8

(Stein not on ballot)

Oct 30-Nov 1, LVs

I've been nerding out on the polling data as much as anyone, and I have absolutely no idea what the hell is going on at this point.

 
Question on polling...  usually the "goto" is likely voters, correct?

What about states where a significant amount of early voting has taken place? Let's say that early votes skew to one candidate, moreso than the final tally.  By definition, there are less "likely voters" left that votes for that candidate, since more of them voted early.  

Do the polls take into consideration that some people are no longer likely to vote only because they already have, and do the polls adjust for that in any way?

 
Sinn Fein said:
Interesting comment from Pelosi - in response to some crazy GOPers throwing out impeachment ideas:

“In addition to there being no grounds for impeachment to begin with, moving to impeach President Hillary Clinton for alleged activities from before the election would be a brazen attempt to nullify the vote of the American people, outside our constitutional framework and destructive to the Framers’ intent,” Pelosi said in a statement. 

I think its interesting in that the Dems clearly don't want the notion that Clinton is under investigation to be part of the conversation pre-election, and if the FBI finds evidence sufficient to prove the case post election, Pelosi apparently does not think that is relevant either.  So, its relevant before the election, but we should not talk about it.  We can talk about it post election, but its not relevant?
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If it's relevant before, it's relevant after.  There isn't anything in the constitution that nullified impeachment for crimes committed prior to taking office.  In fact, I think that idea flies in the face the Framer's intent.

 
Boston said:
Yes...I am worried...they should be held accountable as well...this type of stuff is unacceptable and should be beyond partisanship...no one should be above the law because they happen to share your political views...
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Didn't Wikileaks throw out a lot of this during the Bush administration?

 
TobiasFunke said:
And then just when things are looking kinda bleak for Clinton ...

New NBC/WSJ/Marist poll of Georgia:

Trump 45

Clinton 44

Johnson 8

(Stein not on ballot)

Oct 30-Nov 1, LVs

I've been nerding out on the polling data as much as anyone, and I have absolutely no idea what the hell is going on at this point.
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Amen to that.  This whole thing is just ####### nuts. Michigan maybe trump? Iowa looking Trump?  

and... Georgia that closer for Clinton? 

Makes no sense no mo'

 
Dodds, can you unpack what you think is a shocker about the NARA drive issue?

I ask because the NARA issued a press release about that happening seven years ago.  So it seems like that's really not an issue right now.

 
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Koya said:
Amen to that.  This whole thing is just ####### nuts. Michigan maybe trump? Iowa looking Trump?  

and... Georgia that closer for Clinton? 

Makes no sense no mo'
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I think Trump may win Iowa. Clinton is going to win MI bigly. 

 
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GoBirds said:
Sounds innocent.  :unsure:
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Rumors are that she was doing a lot more than drinking, was drugged and drunk and coming home from having an affair when she ran over stuff in the garage that sparked a flame.  Couldn't figure out how to get out and died, with family inside the house. 

But those were rumors.

 
Koya said:
Question on polling...  usually the "goto" is likely voters, correct?

What about states where a significant amount of early voting has taken place? Let's say that early votes skew to one candidate, moreso than the final tally.  By definition, there are less "likely voters" left that votes for that candidate, since more of them voted early.  

Do the polls take into consideration that some people are no longer likely to vote only because they already have, and do the polls adjust for that in any way?
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I do not believe likely voter screens are designed in such a way that they would exclude people who actually have voted.

 
CBusAlex said:
WRONG
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July 3, 2000

https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/2000/07/03/for-the-presidents-4th-chief-of-staff-a-measure-of-success/4f7a333b-0e12-4815-a749-fa7ff35c82f1/

"They won't have the kids around anymore," Tony Podesta said. "I think there's a reasonable prospect that John will teach or work at a think tank."

But he conceded that his brother often says--in a voice that seems only half-joking--his biggest goal after the White House is to run a hot-dog stand in Hawaii. Even that might prove too stressful for a presidential chief of staff already getting the feel of beach sand in his toes. His true goal, Tony Podesta speculated, is to run "a crazy T-shirt store on the Big Island."
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Wait, is the Trump response meant to indicate I shouldn't be fact checking?

 
Henry Ford said:
July 3, 2000

"They won't have the kids around anymore," Tony Podesta said. "I think there's a reasonable prospect that John will teach or work at a think tank."

But he conceded that his brother often says--in a voice that seems only half-joking--his biggest goal after the White House is to run a hot-dog stand in Hawaii. Even that might prove too stressful for a presidential chief of staff already getting the feel of beach sand in his toes. His true goal, Tony Podesta speculated, is to run "a crazy T-shirt store on the Big Island."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/2000/07/03/for-the-presidents-4th-chief-of-staff-a-measure-of-success/4f7a333b-0e12-4815-a749-fa7ff35c82f1/
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I liked it better when the email was supposed to be talking about a gay brothel or prostitution ring. :lol:

To paraphrase Freud,  "Sometimes a hot dog stand is just a hot dog stand"?

 
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Oh, and I completely made up the whole thing about Turton having an affair and being on drugs while sneaking back into her house.  These guys really gave me a gift.  It's fun to just say "rumor is..." and make up completely ridiculous BS in order to try to influence an election.  I should do this every four years.  

 
timschochet said:
538 has Hillary at 64% but that's because they now have Trump (barely) winning Nevada, North Carolina, and Florida. 

I strongly doubt this. I think Hillary is going to take all 3. 
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For the first time, I can now look at your avatar and think, "I'm with Her."

 
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