ShamrockPride said:
I can't help but think Pats would get crushed regardless...A 2 TD game at least...or more likely less than 21 points.
The Patriots haven't lost on the road by 21 points in a long time.
Last time NE faced SEA (in SEA no less), the Patriots were up by 10 going into the 4th quarter and the Seahawks required a substantial 4th quarter comeback to win by a whopping 1 point.
I meant Seattle or SF will hold them to under 21. But I do take that back now. I keep forgetting SB is in NJ this year, which would obviously play into NE's favor.
How exactly do you figure the Super Bowl being played in NY gives NE the advantage?
Weather familiarity? You don't believe in such things? Northeast winters are far far different than a (obviously) SF winter. Or Seattle winter. And even a Denver winter (though this is closest).
Average day night temperatures in early Feb (TWC)
40/24 NYC
38/23 Boston
48/38 Seattle
47/20 Denver
NYC averages about 25 inches of snowfall a year, Boston 43, Denver about 57 inches, Seattle 10 (Seattle and Boston get about the same amount of precip).
So I wouldn't say those are that much different.
I'd say there is a pretty big difference from a snowfall perspective. According to the NOAA, Seattle averages 5.0 inches of snow a year, Boston 43.8 and Denver 53.8. As far as number of days with snow: Seattle 3, Boston 22, Denver 33. I think that is a significant difference. I do not recall any game in Seattle that was played in accumulating snow. I'm guessing it has happened, but I can't remember it happening.
How many times has snow actually impacted a playoff game? Tuck rule game? Playing in 40 degrees, wind and rain means Seattle can play in any condition. It's the temperature that is problematic in an outdoor Super Bowl, if it were to snow no team has an advantage because snow just doesn't impact that many games for it to be some sort of advantage/disadvantage IMO.
I'd argue the Pats are better equipped in the cold weather too. You can't argue that they haven't played in it more, even just from the home games. The "low" for Seattle is 38. The all time record low for Seattle is 11 degrees. It gets that cold or colder seemingly every year in Boston. Also, they often practice outside no matter what the temperature is so they can practice in the elements. A team like Seattle can't reproduce that.
As for Pats snow games, I don't remember them all, but there are more than you think:
2004 AFC Championship vs Colts. Pats won
2005 Pats/Colts Playoff game, Pats won
2008 vs Arizona, Pats won a blowout
2009 vs Tennessee, the 59-0 game.
2010 vs Chicago, Pats 36-7
I can't think of a snow game that the Patriots have lost. The only "elements" game that I can remember them losing is that rain/wind game on MNF vs SF that they came back from a huge deficit to lose.
I just briefly scanned game logs for the last 3 seasons. Pats are 6-0 in games below freezing. Seahawks have not played a game below freezing. Coldest game they have seen was 36 degrees this year vs the Giants, they won 23-0.
Wilson does seem to throw well in the wind, which is important, but I don't think there is a better QB throwing in the wind than Brady. Just my opinion.