Tom Servo
Nittany Beavers
I think we can go ahead and give him TIME's Man of the Year award. Nobody's coming close to this guy.
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*** Official Russia vs. Ukraine Discussion - Invasion has begun *** (12 Viewers)
- Thread starter Jayrod
- Start date
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
I agree with your sentiments, but like you said, Iraq <> Russia. We could route Iraq (twice) with complete impunity. Russia has a nuclear arsenal. This is fundamentally the same reason why we put up with North Korea. Countries that hit back get a longer leash than countries that can't.
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
You say that now, but we all know that TIME will end up going with "America's Carnies -- Our Great Untapped Resource" or "The Internet" or something totally stupid instead.
culdeus
Footballguy
You have to, as they say, pick your battles.
There is a lot that UKR has going for it, but the per capita GDP is even less than Russia at the start of this. I get it that they have certain resources, and in some cases critical resources, but it's certainly not enough to put EuroNato involvement in. Putin knew that going in. This is just step 1 in what could be a reunification of USSR. He'll keep going until he is either dead or has as much of the USSR back as possible.
DA RAIDERS
Footballguy
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
We are imposing sanctions (which historically have tended to not work) but there is no talk of an embargo.
In 2021 we imported 650,000 barrels of oil from Russia per day. Believe that’s the 12-month average as it was decreasing over the final quarter. It was 405K per day for December 2021.
Oil and gas together constituted over 30% of Russian gross domestic product before the 2021 (mostly Russian engineered) energy crisis sent prices soaring. In 2019 oil and gas were together over 60% of Russian exports.
TIME: The Vital Missing Link in the U.S. Sanctions Against Russia
If we really wanted to put the hurt on Russia we would impose an embargo on their energy exports. Seems unlikely ATM.
In 2021 we imported 650,000 barrels of oil from Russia per day. Believe that’s the 12-month average as it was decreasing over the final quarter. It was 405K per day for December 2021.
Oil and gas together constituted over 30% of Russian gross domestic product before the 2021 (mostly Russian engineered) energy crisis sent prices soaring. In 2019 oil and gas were together over 60% of Russian exports.
TIME: The Vital Missing Link in the U.S. Sanctions Against Russia
If we really wanted to put the hurt on Russia we would impose an embargo on their energy exports. Seems unlikely ATM.
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[icon]
Insoxicated
beer 30
Footballguy
I think the level of sanctions in place today stay if Russia "wins". I guess we need to define that term though:
1. Wins = takes over entire country, installs puppet regime that is accepted by the populace and eventually recognized by the world order. Sanctions stay in place for a while (6 months?) but eventually ease somewhat. Not completely but if the new Ukraine is recognized by the world, you are, by proxy, saying, "ok Russia, you got one over on us".
2. Wins = takes over entire country and has to leave a significant occupying force to support new puppet government because the Ukrainians just don't give a ####. Sanctions stay in place and people continue to buy blue & yellow track suits to show their support for the freedom fighters of Ukraine.
3. Wins = gets stuffed in Kyiv, pulls back to Russia but keeps the disputed territories (Donbas region?) because Russia. Sanctions ease up but some remain in place to show world anger but still saying, "we're ok with it".
4. Wins = gets stuffed in Kyiv, pulls back to Russia, loses any gains but capitulates because of crippling sanctions that have ground Russia to a standstill. Spins the blame to conscripts and fires some generals. Oligarchs regain access to their Italian villas. Sanctions are removed.
Kinda spitballin' but something like that
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Starling gear turned up yesterday
(sorry if :Honda
Timeline:
• Mykhailo Fedorov tweeted on 26th
• Elon replied on the same day
• Terminals arrived on 28th
(sorry if :Honda
Timeline:
• Mykhailo Fedorov tweeted on 26th
• Elon replied on the same day
• Terminals arrived on 28th
beer 30
Footballguy
This is another point that factors into all these various scenarios. How does Ukraine continue forward if Zelensky is finally put down? It's inarguable he's been a huge source of inspiration for his countrymen. How do they proceed if he is taken out? I suspect they continue the fight but you could paint the scenario where something like that takes so much wind out their sails that they capitulate.
Runkle
Footballguy
Push forward a little... "Give me parts of Ukraine or I launch the nukes". Gets Ukraine. Pushes forward a little more... "Give me parts of Azerbaijan or I launch the nukes"... pushes forward a little more... "Give me Estonia or I launch the nukes"...
Jayrod
Footballguy
Estonia is a hard line as a member of NATO. Unfortunately, the rest is negotiable. However, it will be expensive in many ways to do anything else after this and I wouldn't be surprised if someone gets to Putin before we have a second round of this mess.
GreenNGold
Footballguy
I think no matter what happens here it ends up being Putin's last act of aggression towards neighbors, if he ever goes after another country after this (even non-NATO) the world needs to step up and actually stop him. Spacing his attacks out with 4-5 years in between seem to have worked for him so far, but I think he just crossed that line. I also consider this the start of cold war 2 basically, I think sanctions/embargo's are going to be in effect for a long time now, and everything is just going to keep slowly escalating, it very well might be better to have a strong show of force now to nip this in the bud while he is struggling in Ukraine.
We also need to be harder towards him, tell him we consider moving nukes into Belarus to be an act of war that gives us pretext to invade Belarus (we can be bluffing there, he is also bluffing with a lot of his rhetoric and is not going to use them if we got into a fight that was contained to Ukraine).
Yeah, I know that is a lot of tough talk that no one will have the resolve to go along with, but the fact is Putin is not stopping until we stop him (by stop I mean aggressively containing his aggression -- not going into Russia or after him). If he knows his army is fair game in places like Ukraine he would have never went in as in a conventional war it would look like Iraq all over again, near-zero casualties for Western forces against an inferior Russian army. We have been too soft and pandering towards Russia for too long now.
A few more things:
If Russia uses WMD or a tactical nuke in Ukraine, we need to make that clear that will not end well for them. I would think NATO would have to fully commit at that point.
If Russia launches massive cyber attacks against our infrastructure, we make it clear we consider that the same as an attack on our soil and could retaliate militarily.
We also need to be harder towards him, tell him we consider moving nukes into Belarus to be an act of war that gives us pretext to invade Belarus (we can be bluffing there, he is also bluffing with a lot of his rhetoric and is not going to use them if we got into a fight that was contained to Ukraine).
Yeah, I know that is a lot of tough talk that no one will have the resolve to go along with, but the fact is Putin is not stopping until we stop him (by stop I mean aggressively containing his aggression -- not going into Russia or after him). If he knows his army is fair game in places like Ukraine he would have never went in as in a conventional war it would look like Iraq all over again, near-zero casualties for Western forces against an inferior Russian army. We have been too soft and pandering towards Russia for too long now.
A few more things:
If Russia uses WMD or a tactical nuke in Ukraine, we need to make that clear that will not end well for them. I would think NATO would have to fully commit at that point.
If Russia launches massive cyber attacks against our infrastructure, we make it clear we consider that the same as an attack on our soil and could retaliate militarily.
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JaxBill
Footballguy
@pmakela1: Russian invasion plans were printed and packaged for unit commanders in 22nd of February. https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1498645040989626371
encaitar
Footballguy
That's only one of the possible scenarios if he's killed. The other is that he was so loved by his countryman that he becomes a martyr and the Ukrainian people see red and go berserker on the Russian invaders. I figure either is just as likely to happen in the case that he's assassinated.
Right, but do the sanctions just continue for years on end, indefinitely, while Russia controls the country? I don’t know what the off ramp is for the international community if and when Russia wins.
DA RAIDERS
Footballguy
I don’t think Russia stops until they’ve taken Ukraine. Period. By any means necessary. Short of nukes.
historically, Russian leaders don’t give a #### about their people. I don’t think the sanctions will stop the leaders in any way. So unless the Russian people revolt. Putin will have his way. And I wouldn’t be surprised if Putin goes after other, non nato, former subsidiaries of the USSR. After he installs his puppet in Ukraine.
historically, Russian leaders don’t give a #### about their people. I don’t think the sanctions will stop the leaders in any way. So unless the Russian people revolt. Putin will have his way. And I wouldn’t be surprised if Putin goes after other, non nato, former subsidiaries of the USSR. After he installs his puppet in Ukraine.
Redwes25
Footballguy
He would become a Martyr for the Ukrainian cause and be just as powerful a symbol alive as dead. I think captured would be the best result for Russia.
Desert_Power
Footballguy
https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1498637938103566337davidallengreen @davidallengreen
"Franz Ferdinand pulls Russian tour" Now we are even getting the same headlines as August 1914
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Ironically they’re known for Russian avant-garde imagery in their album covers.
(they’re from Glasgow)
Sputnikv8
Footballguy
cosjobs
Footballguy
Always good to have more bullets in the chamber. These first rounds got his attention and slowed him down significantly. And he knows we have more bullets without playing the NATO card.
cosjobs
Footballguy
Hoping for a 2 at this pointI think the level of sanctions in place today stay if Russia "wins". I guess we need to define that term though:
1. Wins = takes over entire country, installs puppet regime that is accepted by the populace and eventually recognized by the world order. Sanctions stay in place for a while (6 months?) but eventually ease somewhat. Not completely but if the new Ukraine is recognized by the world, you are, by proxy, saying, "ok Russia, you got one over on us".
2. Wins = takes over entire country and has to leave a significant occupying force to support new puppet government because the Ukrainians just don't give a ####. Sanctions stay in place and people continue to buy blue & yellow track suits to show their support for the freedom fighters of Ukraine.
3. Wins = gets stuffed in Kyiv, pulls back to Russia but keeps the disputed territories (Donbas region?) because Russia. Sanctions ease up but some remain in place to show world anger but still saying, "we're ok with it".
4. Wins = gets stuffed in Kyiv, pulls back to Russia, loses any gains but capitulates because of crippling sanctions that have ground Russia to a standstill. Spins the blame to conscripts and fires some generals. Oligarchs regain access to their Italian villas. Sanctions are removed.
Kinda spitballin' but something like that
Leeroy Jenkins
Footballguy
Apparently Ukraine Air Force took out a convoy of 800 vehicles. But not the one outside of Kyiv.
cosjobs
Footballguy
He'll be a continuing hero/martyr for the ages. I expect the country to be inspired and energized by his memory for years. Probably more.
cosjobs
Footballguy
Tom Servo
Nittany Beavers
Tom Servo
Nittany Beavers
We love you for the little scamp that you are, regardless of your FBG name.And this whole thing is making me want to change my friggin alias.
Chadstroma
Footballguy
The Russian aren't making as nearly much progress as they expected or even pretty much anyone expected.
The Russians soldiers likely aren't all in on this and the Ukrainians are very committed and very willing to die in this struggle. The Ukranian military leadership is also from the same Soviet war schools, serving in the sane Soviet military as the Russian leadership. They know their tactics and doctrine. Most interesting is the newer Russian military hardware doesn't seem nearly as advanced as they have advertised going against older versions of their own stuff. They still have the clear advantage though in the numerical and quality of their military. However, they clearly are having major logistical issues, lack coordination and ability to execute on the level that the American military can and is inferior to even then the major allies of NATO ((UK, France, Germany).
Economically, Russia is getting hammered. The Ruble is in freefall. Trade, commerce, finance, etc is all being chocked off. From sanctions to the average person refusing to buy Russian products like Vodka.
What looked hhopeless before the invasion actually looks to be a contest and Ukraine, if given the weapons, could put this into stalemate. It shows how hollow Russian conventional forces have become and speaks volumes of the courage, determination and hard fighting of the Ukrainians. The conventional forces of Ukraine are still hard pressed but even if/when the Russians can neutralize them as an effective force a popular insurgency will continue the fight.
There is no winning for Russia. Putin would be smart to look for an exit and the West would be smart to let him save face to getting to that exit. What that looks like, I am not sure, perhaps giving the guarantee that Ukraine will not join NATO (they are significantly far away from qualifying for entry as it stands) and then we turn around and arm them to the teeth and provide individual security guarantees.
In the end, short if this ending in a nuclear exchange where it will not matter anymore, this action has actually caused Putin to push Eastern Europe and even Ukraine further into the Western sphere of influence which was exactly what he was trying to prevent. All of these countries will greatly increase their military spending. They will be buying American, French, UK and German weapons. NATO is renewed now and with clear purpose even to the clueless politicians who mocked warnings about Russia (hopefully they learn now and apply those lessons to China as well).
This actually may be a blessing for Taiwan, speaking of China, as China watches a clear singular voice of the world condemning this and taking action. The economic disaster for China would be even greater with similar sanctions and actions. Further, since much of their military is derived from Russian technology and tactics, they might be wondering about the effectiveness of their own military being able to conduct a martime invasion (a much harder and more complicated military excercise) where the chances of direct action from the American military is much higher than it ever was for the Ukraine.
The brave men and women of the Ukraine have a struggle ahead of them akin to that which only their ancestors fighting Nazi invasion have experienced. The sad thing is many will die snd many Russian military men will die... all needlessly.
One final thought...I am haunted by the memory of a subway station in Moscow that has a mural in it. It is a Soviet era painting depicting the friendship between the Russian and Ukranian people. I was told that there was a similar one in the subway system in Kyiv. I hope more Moscovites go through there and are inspired to rise up against that ex-KGB dictator and end all of this.
The Russians soldiers likely aren't all in on this and the Ukrainians are very committed and very willing to die in this struggle. The Ukranian military leadership is also from the same Soviet war schools, serving in the sane Soviet military as the Russian leadership. They know their tactics and doctrine. Most interesting is the newer Russian military hardware doesn't seem nearly as advanced as they have advertised going against older versions of their own stuff. They still have the clear advantage though in the numerical and quality of their military. However, they clearly are having major logistical issues, lack coordination and ability to execute on the level that the American military can and is inferior to even then the major allies of NATO ((UK, France, Germany).
Economically, Russia is getting hammered. The Ruble is in freefall. Trade, commerce, finance, etc is all being chocked off. From sanctions to the average person refusing to buy Russian products like Vodka.
What looked hhopeless before the invasion actually looks to be a contest and Ukraine, if given the weapons, could put this into stalemate. It shows how hollow Russian conventional forces have become and speaks volumes of the courage, determination and hard fighting of the Ukrainians. The conventional forces of Ukraine are still hard pressed but even if/when the Russians can neutralize them as an effective force a popular insurgency will continue the fight.
There is no winning for Russia. Putin would be smart to look for an exit and the West would be smart to let him save face to getting to that exit. What that looks like, I am not sure, perhaps giving the guarantee that Ukraine will not join NATO (they are significantly far away from qualifying for entry as it stands) and then we turn around and arm them to the teeth and provide individual security guarantees.
In the end, short if this ending in a nuclear exchange where it will not matter anymore, this action has actually caused Putin to push Eastern Europe and even Ukraine further into the Western sphere of influence which was exactly what he was trying to prevent. All of these countries will greatly increase their military spending. They will be buying American, French, UK and German weapons. NATO is renewed now and with clear purpose even to the clueless politicians who mocked warnings about Russia (hopefully they learn now and apply those lessons to China as well).
This actually may be a blessing for Taiwan, speaking of China, as China watches a clear singular voice of the world condemning this and taking action. The economic disaster for China would be even greater with similar sanctions and actions. Further, since much of their military is derived from Russian technology and tactics, they might be wondering about the effectiveness of their own military being able to conduct a martime invasion (a much harder and more complicated military excercise) where the chances of direct action from the American military is much higher than it ever was for the Ukraine.
The brave men and women of the Ukraine have a struggle ahead of them akin to that which only their ancestors fighting Nazi invasion have experienced. The sad thing is many will die snd many Russian military men will die... all needlessly.
One final thought...I am haunted by the memory of a subway station in Moscow that has a mural in it. It is a Soviet era painting depicting the friendship between the Russian and Ukranian people. I was told that there was a similar one in the subway system in Kyiv. I hope more Moscovites go through there and are inspired to rise up against that ex-KGB dictator and end all of this.
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
JaxBill
Footballguy
@tribelaw: A Russian missile hit the Babi Yar Holocaust Memorial site in Kyiv today, killing at least five people. President Volodymyr Zelensky tweeted: "[W]hat is the point of saying 'never again' for 80 years, if the world stays silent when a bomb drops on the site of Babi Yar?"
culdeus
Footballguy
Russia won't win even if they win. This had a chance to end without massive loss of life on the ukr side. Now seems unlikely. Perhaps was optimistic from get go.
I halfway thought the Russian people would rise up. And that would end this. Seems likely they don't care or are too bought in to their version of fox news.
Gr00vus
Footballguy
It would take an extraordinary amount of courage for the civilians in Russia to rise up. People get disappeared for real there when they are found to be in opposition to the dictatorship in non war time. I imagine there were probably some preemptive disappearings leading up to this campaign. Tough environment in which to stand up for someone somewhere else.
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[icon]
Insoxicated
They'll need the off ramp before we will
Ukraine is 40MM people. Pretty sure Russia needs MINIMUM half million troops to occupy...maybe more given the bad blood.
The situation isn't tenable long term. They don't have the money to pay off fence riders. They have maybe 25% of the population who would tolerate them and likely double that who would revel at the idea of making life miserable.
Absent somehow winning hearts and minds... in this heavily sanctioned environment, the idea of "winning" (let alone holding) Ukraine is a fools errand. Absent MASSIVE outside ally support, they're dead in the water.
There's one country that can provide that right now... China, and I'd be shocked to see them stick their neck out to that degree given the global reaction here.
China has spent a decade or more desperately trying to throw money around to build their good-guy / global leader image.
Does ANYONE think they're ready to napalm that social capital? #### no. Not for this.
Putin is running full steam onto what looked like a land bridge but is now a peninsula, at best... and he knows it.
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DA RAIDERS
Footballguy
Can you expand on this? I don’t really know the qualifications for joining NATO.
By individual security guarantees, do you mean protecting individuals, like zalenski? Because that means boots on the ground. Which most don’t want. I think.
I’m wavering ever so slightly watching this crap and at this point, wouldn’t the one thing that Ukraine wants the most, is to be part of NATO. Cause Russia ain’t going away. And it’d be nice to have a little help
whole thing makes me ill.
aawtfdik. Go raiders.
DA RAIDERS
Footballguy
DA RAIDERS
Footballguy
You’re right.
But Putin, imho, is beyond pot committed at this point. what’s he do? Say, “sorry everyone, my bad”. That’s not going fly either.
I would believe by now he has realized that not only is this the easy victory he thought it would be, it’s becoming more likely that it turns into an outright loss for him, and he’s hemmed himself in economically as well. I’m not sure of the next play here for him, but it’s pretty much all bad.DA RAIDERS said:
Leeroy Jenkins
Footballguy
Leeroy Jenkins
Footballguy
Maybe it is that Ukraine is part of the EU, but not NATO. They annex Crimea and some of the Eastern area but not both regions. They have to pay reparations to Ukraine for the damage they did. Some of the sanctions burn off over time. Putin has to step down. Putin has to give up more nukes. To the extent they have forward bases near borders, they have to be removed. US supplies Ukraine with some military tech. I dunno
beer 30
Footballguy
Seems like the beginning of the end for Ukraine https://twitter.com/RealCynicalFox/status/1498986531683549189
Chadstroma
Footballguy
Meaning, we give Putin the win of "Ok, NATO will not accept Ukraine." But then once the fighting is over, we help build their military and provide them a security guarantee or maybe something similar to Taiwan where even if not codified it is heavily insinuated. I am not a huge fan of this idea to be honest but I think we have to give Putin something to save face. I don't think we want a cornered Putin with a decrepit conventional military, perhaps an angry Russian people and a large arsenal of nukes.DA RAIDERS said:Can you expand on this? I don’t really know the qualifications for joining NATO.
By individual security guarantees, do you mean protecting individuals, like zalenski? Because that means boots on the ground. Which most don’t want. I think.
and at this point, wouldn’t the one thing that Ukraine wants the most, is to be part of NATO. Cause Russia ain’t going away. And it’d be nice to have a little help
whole thing makes me ill.
aawtfdik. Go raiders.
Jobber
Footballguy
I’ve been following this closely and just wanted to throw out a few random comments.
- Ukraine buying Turkish drones in the past few years was some of the best money ever spent in human history.
- the 40+ mile column outside Kiev is stalled and out of gas. Pretty much a non threat as long as UKR keeps popping the fuel resupply.
- With all of the NATO anti tank and air being dumped into UKR hands, pretty soon a Russian won’t even be able to ride a moped without taking a rocket up the ***
- Several NATO countries (Germany, Italy, etc) have committed to increased defense spending because of this. Especially Germany, who committed to buying I think 30+ F35s. Buy Lockheed Martin stock?
- Ukraine buying Turkish drones in the past few years was some of the best money ever spent in human history.
- the 40+ mile column outside Kiev is stalled and out of gas. Pretty much a non threat as long as UKR keeps popping the fuel resupply.
- With all of the NATO anti tank and air being dumped into UKR hands, pretty soon a Russian won’t even be able to ride a moped without taking a rocket up the ***
- Several NATO countries (Germany, Italy, etc) have committed to increased defense spending because of this. Especially Germany, who committed to buying I think 30+ F35s. Buy Lockheed Martin stock?
massraider
Footballguy
NEW: The weapons Germany promised (anti-tanks and stingers) have been handed over to #Ukraine (per DPA reporting).
Berlin’s offer was only made on Saturday. Remarkable speed given it took a MONTH for the helmets to get there!
https://twitter.com/trent_murray/status/1499051291552722946?t=CzS9WZ81GKtspX75ysu3yg&s=19
Berlin’s offer was only made on Saturday. Remarkable speed given it took a MONTH for the helmets to get there!
https://twitter.com/trent_murray/status/1499051291552722946?t=CzS9WZ81GKtspX75ysu3yg&s=19
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