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*** Official Russia vs. Ukraine Discussion - Invasion has begun *** (4 Viewers)

Russian Central bank has announced stock market closed Tuesday as well. Central bank more than doubled interest rate to 20%. Yes 2-0.

Gonna be interesting to see how Russian economy makes it through week.

 
 
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beer 30 said:
Why so? Tanks in cities with high rises don’t fair well. Kyiv is a pretty huge city, that convoy is carrying enough to do some serious damage but it ain’t like the Ukrainians are gonna sit back and take it.
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Because I think they’re going to lay siege to the city, not drive down the streets.  I think Putin is tired of looking like an idiot and he’ll just ramp up the violence and destruction.  he doesn’t give a #### about war crimes. 

 
[icon] said:
Finnish Lawmakers discussing NATO membership : sending lethal aid. 

Everyone should join NATO right now. :lol:  Putin can't attack everyone at once without throwing a fit and lobbing nukes. 
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They are legally bound to at least debate the topic bc of a recent petition, but the shift over the last few years is dramatic.

A survey by the Finnish broadcasting company Yle found that 53 percent of Finns support their country joining NATO. This figure goes up to 66 percent if neighboring Sweden were also to join NATO. This marks a drastic shift in public attitudes — in the previous poll in 2017, only 19 percent of Finns supported NATO membership.

A citizens’ initiative to hold a referendum on whether Finland should join NATO gathered the required 50,000 signatures in less than a week, which forces parliament to debate it.
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Jayrod said:
Because Russia didn't like it?  Russia has no say over what Ukraine does.  That's the whole point of being a "sovereign" nation.  
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2/3 of the world super powers don't want any additional NATO expansion to the East.  Russia has been pretty clear about this, so why get Ukraine slaughtered, and risk ww3?  Seems like a petty hill to die on imo.

 
DA RAIDERS said:
Because I think they’re going to lay siege to the city, not drive down the streets.  I think Putin is tired of looking like an idiot and he’ll just ramp up the violence and destruction.  he doesn’t give a #### about war crimes. 
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A siege to me makes him look even worse IMO. He’s almost admitting defeat if he has to wait out a bunch of partisans while fielding what he thinks is one of the most powerful armies in the world. I feel like he goes scorched earth and just razes the city. Agree he doesn’t give a #### about what the international community thinks at this point. He has to save face with his people now.

I don’t see how this ends well for him either way. If he is forced to back off and the Ukrainians hold out, he’s most likely pushed out of power sometime soon. If he does take over Ukraine, he & his country become pariah’s to the rest of the world for a very, very long time under what will be crippling sanctions.

 
@business: Chinese power plants and steel-makers are holding off purchases of Russian coal after domestic banks advised them to pause https://trib.al/waILuXZ

@anders_aslund: The irony of the Russian-Ukrainian war:
Russia: Financial collapse, wild run after hard currency, financial markets are closed; all government websites have been down for 4 days.
Ukraine: All websites are up. Electricity, water & banks work normally.

 
beer 30 said:
A siege to me makes him look even worse IMO. He’s almost admitting defeat if he has to wait out a bunch of partisans while fielding what he thinks is one of the most powerful armies in the world. I feel like he goes scorched earth and just razes the city. Agree he doesn’t give a #### about what the international community thinks at this point. He has to save face with his people now.

I don’t see how this ends well for him either way. If he is forced to back off and the Ukrainians hold out, he’s most likely pushed out of power sometime soon. If he does take over Ukraine, he & his country become pariah’s to the rest of the world for a very, very long time under what will be crippling sanctions.
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Plus, a siege takes months. I don't think the Russian economy can withstand the current situation for even a couple weeks.

 
Andy Dufresne said:
Kind of makes one wonder why we've been spending crap tons of money on our military all these years. 
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Needs to be funneled to cyber warfare and programs internally.  These other nations are NOT going to battle the US with boots on the ground.  They will go after our glaring weaknesses and play to their strengths.  This has been true since the 9/11 days.

 
 
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Zelensky daily briefing (7:32)

"Evil, armed with rockets, bombs and artillery, must be stopped immediately. Destroyed economically. We must show that humanity is able to protect themselves"

 
Punxsutawney Phil said:
2/3 of the world super powers don't want any additional NATO expansion to the East.  Russia has been pretty clear about this, so why get Ukraine slaughtered, and risk ww3?  Seems like a petty hill to die on imo.
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Russia isn’t really a superpower anymore. They’re Mexico with more land and nukes.

 
JaxBill said:
Plus, a siege takes months. I don't think the Russian economy can withstand the current situation for even a couple weeks.
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From earlier reports, they aren't going to make it 10 days. The expired MRE's is a nice touch as well, not that that #### ever really goes bad, just kinda reaches a new stage in evolution.

 
beer 30 said:
The expired MRE's is a nice touch as well, not that that #### ever really goes bad, just kinda reaches a new stage in evolution.
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for anyone wondering why we need the :laughing emoji like button: brought back…

 
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Looking at the twitters this morning feels like the Russia army is not super inclined to shoot Ukrainians and pull back at contact.   This of course could be selective reporting. 

 
Punxsutawney Phil said:
2/3 of the world super powers don't want any additional NATO expansion to the East.  Russia has been pretty clear about this, so why get Ukraine slaughtered, and risk ww3?  Seems like a petty hill to die on imo.
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Well, they DIDN'T join NATO.  NATO refused their application and we still have Russia invading them.  Your entire argument is factually moot and pretty much the Putin talking points he's been spewing.

And again, why does Ukraine have to do what Russia says?  Why is Russia risking WW3 just to be able to tell Ukraine they can't join NATO?  Seems like a petty hill to die on, IMO.

ETA:  And China doesn't give a rip about NATO.  Their concerns are almost exclusively in the South China Sea.

 
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Jayrod said:
Well, they DIDN'T join NATO.  NATO refused their application and we still have Russia invading them.  Your entire argument is factually moot and pretty much the Putin talking points he's been spewing.

And again, why does Ukraine have to do what Russia says?  Why is Russia risking WW3 just to be able to tell Ukraine they can't join NATO?  Seems like a petty hill to die on, IMO.

ETA:  And China doesn't give a rip about NATO.  Their concerns are almost exclusively in the South China Sea.
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Russia isn't risking ww3.  It's pretty evident no country is stepping in to help Ukraine.

 
DA RAIDERS said:
why on earth is the road that the convoy is on, still operable?  can't they blow it up?  and any and all ancillary roads as well?  once that convoy reaches kyiv, night night.

and on a side note, do neither of these countries have airplanes?  helicopters?  let alone drones?

this whole thing is so weird and surreal.
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That retired Lt. Gen Hertling spoke on this on CNN, where he is appearing a lot. 

https://twitter.com/Sunflow08593559/status/1498649166372818945?s=20&t=slpqBilmUVoBxYdG9m6HvA

 
I've been watching news on the invasion on Sky News.  You can watch it on the Pluto TV app.  Nice change of pace from American media.

 
Punxsutawney Phil said:
Russia isn't risking ww3.  It's pretty evident no country is stepping in to help Ukraine.
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So NATO is foolishly risking WW3, just by possibly allowing Ukraine into NATO, but by actually invading Ukraine, Russia isn't risking WW3? 

Your reasoning is extremely inconsistent here.

 
Punxsutawney Phil said:
Russia isn't risking ww3.  It's pretty evident no country is stepping in to help Ukraine.
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And the entire world has dropped the hammer on Russia in every arena except boots on the ground....because to do so could entice Russia into using nukes (per his warning)...so again, Russia is risking WW3 by invading Ukraine because if one of the NATO nations steps in, he has threatened retaliation "like we've never known".

 
Jayrod said:
And the entire world has dropped the hammer on Russia in every arena except boots on the ground....because to do so could entice Russia into using nukes (per his warning)...so again, Russia is risking WW3 by invading Ukraine because if one of the NATO nations steps in, he has threatened retaliation "like we've never known".
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The calculus on how this is going to go needs to be done again, adding in the chinks in the Russian armor we have seen, and the unprecedented financial hammer that no one predicted. 

 
beer 30 said:
A siege to me makes him look even worse IMO. He’s almost admitting defeat if he has to wait out a bunch of partisans while fielding what he thinks is one of the most powerful armies in the world. I feel like he goes scorched earth and just razes the city. Agree he doesn’t give a #### about what the international community thinks at this point. He has to save face with his people now.

I don’t see how this ends well for him either way. If he is forced to back off and the Ukrainians hold out, he’s most likely pushed out of power sometime soon. If he does take over Ukraine, he & his country become pariah’s to the rest of the world for a very, very long time under what will be crippling sanctions.
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Not self promoting but it kinda sounds like the scorched earth approach is the flavor of the day. Russia can't sustain a prolonged siege, we 've already seen that with vehicles running out of gas or breaking down en route. Their supply lines suck and they only had enough for a week or so thinking this was going to be a walk in the park. Russia is in a position where they have to wrap this up quickly if they have any hope of success. There is only one way to accomplish this with what they have to work with, bomb them into the stone age.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-isolation-intensifies-ukraine-fighting-rages-2022-03-01/

 
beer 30 said:
A siege to me makes him look even worse IMO. He’s almost admitting defeat if he has to wait out a bunch of partisans while fielding what he thinks is one of the most powerful armies in the world. I feel like he goes scorched earth and just razes the city. Agree he doesn’t give a #### about what the international community thinks at this point. He has to save face with his people now.

I don’t see how this ends well for him either way. If he is forced to back off and the Ukrainians hold out, he’s most likely pushed out of power sometime soon. If he does take over Ukraine, he & his country become pariah’s to the rest of the world for a very, very long time under what will be crippling sanctions.
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We’re saying the same thing. He’s going to flatten Ukraine. 🥺

 
Andy Dufresne said:
Is he though? Seems like he's going to blunt his sword on a rock. 

The only way he can truly "flatten" it is to do the unthinkable. 
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I’m talking about more, a LOT MORE, strikes like the one into that parliamentary building. 
 

putin doesn’t care what anyone thinks and he needs this over, Yesterday, for a ton of reasons. Ukrainians will continue to fight, but Putin will claim victory once the cities fall and current govt is removed. 😢🥺

 
Defense Department briefing

Senior Defense Department official briefing media says "We have seen more than 400 new missile launches" in Ukraine in 24 hours. Says Russia does not yet have air superiority. "But there are areas where they have more control than others" (Thread) 

Says "Ukrainian air and missile defense systems remain viable and intact and engage" 

Says RU aircraft numbers still north of 75. "The airspace is contested every day." 

Says US troops providing some assistance to refugees and those fleeing Ukraine. "Some 500,000 Ukrainians have had, have or are trying to leave the country in the last 24 hours." 

On the convoy headed to Kiev and does Russia have air superiority closer to Kiev: "I can't tell you with certainty why this convoy hasn't been attacked. We have to assume the Russians are aware it's a long convoy." 

"We generally sense that the RU movement on Kiev is stalled at this point" On the column moving to Kiev, "We don't think it's made a lot of progress." Issues likely: sustainment and logistics problems as well as UA resistance 

"They continue to be bogged down" coming from the North. But "The Russians themselves are regrouping" 

Says, Russians face greater resistance than they thought. "We are seeing columns that are literally out of gas. They're starting to run out of food for their troops... They will adjust." 

In last 6 days "evidence of a certain risk-averse behavior (in terms of risk to their own force.) Says that the amphibious landing near Mariupol shows that. They landed in an uncontested space and still haven't reached the city. 

Same risk-aversion is true for RU aircraft and their conscripts. Says "We aren't seeing them be risk-averse when it comes to civilian casualties and civilian infrastructure." 

Can't confirm reports on SU-34 in country. 

"Not seen any appreciatable moves in Odessa" 

On RU use of conscripts: "a significant number have been" but can't give a number, young men, drafted into service "Not all of them were fully trained or prepared or even aware that they being sent to a combat operation." 

RU "Morale is flagging... They are relying in a not-insignificant way on conscripts and not volunteers."
Says RU likely surprised by that. 

Ru has at its disposable still "significant combined arms combat power... they are and will continue to adjust and adapt... We don't see a re-evaluation of the invasion of Ukraine at a strategic level." 

Says US and foreign aid continues to arrive, getting to the right hands. 

Says "We have not seen the full scope of their EW capabilities brought to bear," can't say why. But some isolated incidents of jamming. 

On warcrimes, DOD can't answer. On "vacuum bomb" Can't confirm that they are in Ukraine and can't confirm use but can confirm launchers are in Ukraine 
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I just don't get the endgame here. What happens when he wins? Does the world just go back to doing business with Putin saying, "Okay Vlad, you got us on that one. But no more, Okay?" 

Does the world just stand back and let him occupy Ukraine indefinitely?

It feels really gross that Iraq invades Kuwait and the world says "No way!" because of oil...But since Ukraine isn't "valuable" enough then, well, let's just think about this. I get that Iraq <> Russia, but it's still gross.

 
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