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*** Official Russia vs. Ukraine Discussion - Invasion has begun *** (2 Viewers)

The information war in Russia is divided among young and old. The old watch state TV, the young don't watch TV at all. 

I wonder if the old will start watching the Tik Tok clips their grandchildren are watching when the financial damage sets in. It's hard to know

 


This is one of the saddest videos I've seen.  Russia wasn't even willing to use their own soldiers to the conflict.  Double-edged sword because it does diminish some of the Ukranian efforts in the early going - You'd revise who you expected to be doing well when they are fighting school teachers from the Separatist regions of the Ukraine.  I fear what will happen if/when they actually mobilize more of the enlisted/trained military.

 
[icon] said:
To the people fretting over our Russian oil consumption... 

It's like 2% of our burn. Shut it down. 
make a show of it to lean on others to do the same. 

But in reality it's a blip on the radar of our daily burn. 
The greater point - outside of how it affects our energy independence - is to stop handing that jagoff our money.

 
Redwes25 said:
He would become a Martyr for the Ukrainian cause and be just as powerful a symbol alive as dead.  I think captured would be the best result for Russia.  
This. 
 

“If you strike me down, I shall become more powerful than you can possibly imagine.”

 
So apparently Belarus may have leaked an invasion plan map?
An assassination plot against the UKR president was leaked to the UKR authorities.  They had no idea it was even happening.  The Chechens who were on the strike team now have sunflower seeds in their pockets.

Story

 
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The greater point - outside of how it affects our energy independence - is to stop handing that jagoff our money.
It is moronic that we are not energy independent. 

We have the ability to be not just independent but also be an exporter. 

All the money to oil goes to pretty much a who's who of problematic nations. Russia, Iran, Venezuela, etc live off of oil money. 

Let's be adults about this. If we magically switched every single car, plane and boat to run off of something that wasn't a fossil fuel we would still need large amounts of oil and gas. More solar, wind, etc? Sure... but that isn't going to get us to where we need to be. 

We need to invest more in technology to improve our energy use (higher efficiency, renewable sources, etc) and it should be a military priority. The military advantage if not having to transport large amounts of fuel is significant. The fact that the US is so good at it is why we can project power like no other country in the world. 

We also need to reverse this administrations decisions on energy. It isn't just an inflation/economy issue but it is now apparent to even the cheap seats thar this is a national security issue. 

It is an issie so politicized that rationality is rare. So many think if energy as A or B and it is really a yes please. 

 
An assassination plot against the UKR president was leaked to the UKR authorities.  They had no idea it was even happening.  The Chechens who were on the strike team now have sunflower seeds in their pockets.

Story
One of the most encouraging things I have heard (I reserve really believing much of what is reported with fog of war and propaganda rampant) is that the Russian security services against this invasion leaked it. It shows that Putin may not have such a good grip on power as it has always seemed.

 
One of the most encouraging things I have heard (I reserve really believing much of what is reported with fog of war and propaganda rampant) is that the Russian security services against this invasion leaked it. It shows that Putin may not have such a good grip on power as it has always seemed.


That is what this is going to take.  Putin being neutered or removed.  Not like Russia never had a coup before . . . . 

 
That is what this is going to take.  Putin being neutered or removed.  Not like Russia never had a coup before . . . . 
When Russia has changed power it has changed the world... Tsars to Bolsheviks then Soviet Union to Yelstin/Russian Federation to Putin snaking his way in.

 
Roman Abramovich is selling Chelsea soccer team.  He will set up a charitable foundation where net proceeds from the sale will go to Ukraine war victims.

Per Sky News.

 
It is moronic that we are not energy independent. 

We have the ability to be not just independent but also be an exporter. 

All the money to oil goes to pretty much a who's who of problematic nations. Russia, Iran, Venezuela, etc live off of oil money. 

Let's be adults about this. If we magically switched every single car, plane and boat to run off of something that wasn't a fossil fuel we would still need large amounts of oil and gas. More solar, wind, etc? Sure... but that isn't going to get us to where we need to be. 

We need to invest more in technology to improve our energy use (higher efficiency, renewable sources, etc) and it should be a military priority. The military advantage if not having to transport large amounts of fuel is significant. The fact that the US is so good at it is why we can project power like no other country in the world. 

We also need to reverse this administrations decisions on energy. It isn't just an inflation/economy issue but it is now apparent to even the cheap seats thar this is a national security issue. 

It is an issie so politicized that rationality is rare. So many think if energy as A or B and it is really a yes please. 


The right way to frame it is that we shouldn't be taking something out of the earth that we can't make and lighting it on fire.   All of that should be towards making things, not smoke.  

In 5,10,15 years we will be aghast at how we lit on fire literally the most important resource we had that could be turned into damn near anything from double ended dildos to IV bags.

 
The right way to frame it is that we shouldn't be taking something out of the earth that we can't make and lighting it on fire.   All of that should be towards making things, not smoke.  

In 5,10,15 years we will be aghast at how we lit on fire literally the most important resource we had that could be turned into damn near anything from double ended dildos to IV bags.
Should or not... right now we need to light it on fire. Resistance to that reality is as silly as resistance to investing in ways to move away from lighting it on fire. 

 
Should or not... right now we need to light it on fire. Resistance to that reality is as silly as resistance to investing in ways to move away from lighting it on fire. 


I mean there's essential reasons to light gas on fire and there isn't.  There's no attempt to allocate this right now.  People see it as a climate change issue, that will somehow magically resolve itself but we are burning thru our petro stuff so fast that even if we find some magic wand to wave that that issue the material need for it in other areas will not be sustainable.  

This war is going to highlight just a little bit of how much we are reliant on grey market gas, and how gas as a transition fuel to something greener has it's own set of issues.  

 
Point of information - the USA imported an average of 650,000 barrels of oil per day from Russia in 2021. It was declining at YE (to around 405K), but on the aggregate, we averaged 650K.

We consume 18.19M barrels per day. that puts our dependence on RU oil for 2031 at 3.57%.

Now I can see some of you thinking, 2%, or 3.57%, big whup. well that’s a 105M barrel rounding error. We wouldn’t call that immaterial.

Even if we extrapolate the lower YE average, that’s still 150M barrels that will need to be replaced. not saying it shouldn’t, just pointing out 3.57% or 2.23% might seem smallish but it’s not insignificant either. 

Carry on.

 
Point of information - the USA imported an average of 650,000 barrels of oil per day from Russia in 2021. It was declining at YE (to around 405K), but on the aggregate, we averaged 650K.

We consume 18.19M barrels per day. that puts our dependence on RU oil for 2031 at 3.57%.

Now I can see some of you thinking, 2%, or 3.57%, big whup. well that’s a 105M barrel rounding error. We wouldn’t call that immaterial.

Even if we extrapolate the lower YE average, that’s still 150M barrels that will need to be replaced. not saying it shouldn’t, just pointing out 3.57% or 2.23% might seem smallish but it’s not insignificant either. 

Carry on.


Gas is $3.60 a gallon in Dallas and climbing.  Demand will eventually take a hit though. 

 
I mean there's essential reasons to light gas on fire and there isn't.  There's no attempt to allocate this right now.  People see it as a climate change issue, that will somehow magically resolve itself but we are burning thru our petro stuff so fast that even if we find some magic wand to wave that that issue the material need for it in other areas will not be sustainable.  

This war is going to highlight just a little bit of how much we are reliant on grey market gas, and how gas as a transition fuel to something greener has it's own set of issues.  
If we continue to help fuel Russia and Iran we will have very sudden climate change... very hot followed by a long brutal winter. 

 
What continues to befuddle me is the weakness and ineptitude of the Russian army.  This is exposing Russia as not nearly as formidable threat as was previously thought.

 
Point of information - the USA imported an average of 650,000 barrels of oil per day from Russia in 2021. It was declining at YE (to around 405K), but on the aggregate, we averaged 650K.

We consume 18.19M barrels per day. that puts our dependence on RU oil for 2031 at 3.57%.

Now I can see some of you thinking, 2%, or 3.57%, big whup. well that’s a 105M barrel rounding error. We wouldn’t call that immaterial.

Even if we extrapolate the lower YE average, that’s still 150M barrels that will need to be replaced. not saying it shouldn’t, just pointing out 3.57% or 2.23% might seem smallish but it’s not insignificant either. 

Carry on.
They will produce the same amount. If we produce less that is higher margin, morr $$$ for them, if we produce more it is better for our economy and hurts theirs as they get less $$$ for their production. 

Carry on. 

 
What continues to befuddle me is the weakness and ineptitude of the Russian army.  This is exposing Russia as not nearly as formidable threat as was previously thought.
Interesting twitter thread here on the subject focusing on a specific tire

https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1499164245250002944?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1499164245250002944|twgr^|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.redditmedia.com%2Fmediaembed%2Fliveupdate%2F18hnzysb1elcs%2FLiveUpdate_891df1d4-9a8c-11ec-ab5e-92be2145d5a0%2F0

 
What continues to befuddle me is the weakness and ineptitude of the Russian army.  This is exposing Russia as not nearly as formidable threat as was previously thought.
I said a few days ago that it’s been jarring to compare the memory of the Red Army, the villains in so many action movies for most of our lives, to the shocking incompetence of this gaggle of sad sacks that Putin thought would conquer a nation the size of Texas in a few days.

 
This part of the war is really confusing and somewhat concerning to me. On what basis can a western nation, purportedly governed by the rule of law, simply confiscate the property of private citizens? 
 
I heard, on a hockey podcast of all things, that a lot of Russians bought real estate in nations with more stable currencies, so this could be considered a form of money laundering.

 
What continues to befuddle me is the weakness and ineptitude of the Russian army.  This is exposing Russia as not nearly as formidable threat as was previously thought.


It doesn't feel like this is the Russian Army.  I would bet not.

 
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Interesting. That tire may be a symptom of a larger problem. If they didn't perform that routine maintenance,  what else did they skip?

is lack of maintenance a contributing factor as to why Russia has only a fraction of their air force in Ukraine?

 
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My gut feeling is this is mostly a social media construct. 
 
Yes it's only been a week. Social media is short attention span theater. We all so badly want the underdog to prevail here. But unfortunately I think your gut feeling is most likely correct. I hope the good guys can continue to keep some air power in the skies.

 
I'll say it again, I think the SWIFT bank sanctions are going to backfire long term. Short term, it's going to punish Russia badly. Long term, the dollar's reserve status is going to suffer badly for a number of reasons that will take time to completely unfold. 

 
What continues to befuddle me is the weakness and ineptitude of the Russian army.  This is exposing Russia as not nearly as formidable threat as was previously thought.
Maybe this generation of Russians is spending too much time on keyboards.

 
My gut feeling is this is mostly a social media construct. 
 


I said a few days ago that it’s been jarring to compare the memory of the Red Army, the villains in so many action movies for most of our lives, to the shocking incompetence of this gaggle of sad sacks that Putin thought would conquer a nation the size of Texas in a few days.
I have a feeling that Putin sent all the scrubs in first to do 3 things.  #1 die. #2 maybe they’ll actually win. #3. Make some inroads and die a lot, then send in the professional soldiers.   We’ll see. 

 

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